9.30.26 Industry Mailbag; Fairway Independent's Steve Jacobson on Pivots and Presence; Sell First

We start by looking at three unresolved issues: the tradeoff between housing affordability and protecting existing homeowners, potential ethical concerns around choosing whichever credit-scoring model helps a borrower qualify, and the challenge of protecting AI from foreign attempts to exploit or “steal” it. Robbie interviews Fairway Independent Mortgage’s Steve Jacobsen on the evolving nature of mortgage lending, product expansion, leadership and more. And the bond selloff continues despite weakening economic data, with long-term yields surging amid inflation, federal borrowing, issuance, hedging, and positioning pressures, leaving the market dependent on materially weaker PCE or payrolls data to break the bearish momentum.

This week’s podcasts are presented by Gateless, intelligent automation that gives you the competitive edge. Gateless solutions reduce costs, deliver a superior borrower experience, and mitigate risk by automating tasks and decisions historically made by people. 

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

Transcript

Copy Transcript Copied

SPEAKER_01 0:02

Welcome to the Crispin Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast. Live from Dulles Airport, Washington, D.C., I'm your host, Robbie Crispin. Topics on today's episode include a little industry mailbag. While we're seeing some dramatic numbers on mortgage applications, I think you can probably understand why. And my interview with Fairway Independent Mortgages, Steve Jacobson, on the evolving nature of mortgage lending, product expansion, leadership, and more. Here. Take a listen to a little preview. When we think product mix and where the industry is headed, obviously non-QM has proliferated greatly recently. Is it as simple as saying non-QM or within non-QM? Are there different ways to underwrite? When you think about the evolving product mix, how do you view it?

SPEAKER_00 0:49

Well, okay, so we all know when the rates were, let's say, 3%, is that person he or she going to buy another house today? Maybe yes, maybe no, right? But how many people maybe as an investor maybe buy five, six houses this year? So it's almost like, how do you think about it? I mean, if you think about the, you know, we're kind of addicted to the deals. When the rates are good, we just go to our database, we just go there. But when you're not, you better market whether it be on Facebook, whether it be on some, however, with investor groups, because there's investors buying houses. You might say a dude right now just close a little close a loan with six six loans, one deal, one situation. So you you got to kind of shift how you think about this because you know, been doing this since the 80s. You know, you see a lot of shifts. And you can sense the shift now is in the non-QM world. All mortgagees, not just fairway. I mean, IMBs, there should not, there should not be an IMB or a mortgage person. He or she should have 30 to 40 percent of their data of their pipeline should be non-QM. There isn't there isn't price pressures there. It isn't that way. That's how it's what people have to do to get a loan. And so to me, it's a shift mentally first. Because you say, well, what's the shift? How are you gonna market that? It's not so much to understand the product. Product, this isn't brain surgery. The product's gonna bullet point chest checkles, not that complicated. But the question is, how do you market to that client? Well, there's ways. You in all mortgages know ways to market to that client. Well, that's part of it. That's the shift.

SPEAKER_01 2:30

This week's podcasts are presented by Gateless, intelligent automation that gives you the competitive edge. Gateless solutions reduce costs, deliver a superior borrower experience, and mitigate risks by automating tasks and decisions historically made by people. To learn more, visit gateless.com. The companies still have mailrooms and mailbags. Let's dip into my electronic mailbag and see what some readers are thinking about. One person wrote the administration has a choice in housing, keep prices high and protect existing owners, or let prices fall and restore affordability for the next generation. You can't do both. I agree. Regarding the new credit models, it seems like the one direct thing nobody wants to ask out loud is quote, if you pull a set of FICO scores and decide they are too low, you pull a set of anti scores and they barely qualify. So you go with that. Is that fraud? How's that different than seeing a child support on a pay stub? So the LO just obtains a VOE and hope they don't write it. Good question. The Trump administration is accusing other countries of stealing our AI. Can't we ask our own AI how to make itself immune to that and stop it? Good question. I don't know. Sell first and ask questions later. The bond sell-off has intensified even as economic data has softened, revealing a growing disconnect between weaker growth and persistent upward pressure on long-term yields. Consumer confidence fell and JOLT's openings dropped to 7.08 million. Yet the 10-year finished yesterday at 5.26%, and the 30-year reached 5.62%. Its highest level since 2002. With MBS losing roughly a quarter of a point and the two's tense curves deepening to 37 basis points. We're seeing heavy corporate issuance, convexity hedging positioning, and concerns over inflation and federal borrowing continue to pressure the long end of the yield curve. Fed President Williams said there was no urgency after September's hike and that policymakers could gather more information, while Governor Barr emphasized recalibrating policy to balance employment and inflation risks and return inflation to 2% in a timely manner. With rates technically oversold but lacking dip buying impetus, the market needs either clear evidence of economic deterioration or a meaningful shift in the inflation or Fed outlook to sustain a rally. Resilient AI investment and risk asset wealth effects continue to support growth, making Wednesday's PCE data and Friday's payrolls the key near-term tests for whether the long-end sell-off can finally lose momentum. For today's interview, I wanted to welcome back to the show, Fairway Independent Mortgages, Steve Jacobson, to talk about the evolving nature of mortgage lending, product expansion, leadership, and more. He's founder and CEO of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, overseeing and directing all business operations for the company's full service mortgage lending operation. Founded Fairway just over 30 years ago in April of 1996 and has grown into one of the largest lenders in America. I want to start by taking a pulse out there of the industry. And before I talk about consolidation or shifts in the channels and all that sort of thing, just the mood from your end. Obviously, rates have gone up. Maybe the spring or summer home buying season didn't quite materialize this year, but there's still business to be one for people that want to work hard. When you look at the overall temperature of the mortgage industry as we come up on MBA annual here, what's it look like from your seat?

SPEAKER_00 6:10

I think a lot of it's just how you look at stuff. I mean, I don't think anyone, uh just like you to your point, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, did anybody expect the third, fourth quarter of 2026 to be this way? The answer is probably no. Right. So the challenge for all mortgagees, all of us, is just it's just a shift mentally. I mean, for me personally, when you know, originating it with double-digit interest rates, it's really just about how you look at stuff. There is business out there, you got to do things. I mean, you got to work, you got to market with being on social media or whatever you're gonna do. You have to be, you have to lean into it. There's a lot of uh different ways to do that. I'm sure everybody's got their own pulse on how the how-to. Uh, but to me, it's just a shift mentally. It's not, honestly, it's not that big of a deal.

SPEAKER_01 6:54

What do you feel like Fairway's doing well currently? And how are you with the business?

SPEAKER_00 6:59

I think with us and it has been you you learn from your experiences, you learn from what you go through, and you got to pivot and you always got to stay curious. I mean, I think the curiosity part of this industry is fun for all of us mortgagees. You got to stay curious, you got to say, let's adapt, let's go, let's do this, let's do that, let's let's pivot quick, let's try this, let's try that. And I think that our speed of pivoting is, you know, I mean, I'm sure everyone mortgagee feels they're they're the best at it. It's just a daily discipline that you, you know, it's not it's one thing to talk about something, it's another thing to do it. And so the daily pivot, having to pivot, doing this, do that. I think a lot of it's just bringing positive energy to to your markets. Um, I mean, there's people in in every company that are still busy. How why are they busy? What are they doing? I mean, you can learn from each other, and that's part of the discipline is staying curious and learning.

SPEAKER_01 7:49

Yeah. So in that vein, product mix, technology, recruiting, where's your focus been recently?

SPEAKER_00 7:56

I think it's all of it. I think product mix is a is a shift mental to the non-QM space. I mean, I've been in this business for a minute, and you go to your market and ask them if they haven't gotten if any of their people haven't gotten a loan in the last year or that couldn't qualify because of this, this, this, there's an opportunity for all of us mortgagees that have been in the business for a while. Because there is. You know, that loan can't be done through AI. You have to explain to people what a bank statement loan is or how it works, or I mean, you it there's an education process you've got to go through. And so I, you know, to me, it's just a shift mentally. And, you know, it's kind of like if you're gonna learn how to shoot free throws, you don't go to a the worst free throw shooter in your company. You go to the people that are the best and you say, How are you doing it? And some markets are doing great with that. And I think that's part of it is staying curious, staying open-minded. As a loan officer, we hate being told what to do. You tell us black, we're gonna say white, but if you show us stuff, we may pick and choose and say, Oh, I think that makes sense for me and let's roll.

SPEAKER_01 8:54

So you threw out the phrase AI can't do that. And some people would say, well, AI will eventually be able to do that. What do you find as the mix between incorporating advanced technology or agentics into some of your processes versus like I'm putting a line in the sand of this is going to be a human-controlled process? Because the last thing we want to do is be saying, well, that's not how we're doing, and then the whole industry has shifted and suddenly we're we're behind.

SPEAKER_00 9:22

I just think everybody's well, I shouldn't say everybody because everybody's got their own opinions. Keeping an open mind is important. I mean, there's like a wide lane right now of change in the industry, and everybody's jumping through that wide lane. Who's right and who's wrong? Who knows? You know, you don't have to be the first in front of anything, everything to be the winner of anything. I mean, you look at Microsoft, their history, you look at Walmart, their history, were they first? No, they weren't. Sam Walton went and researched a lot of the competitors. Um, Microsoft did the same. So I mean, it's like anything. Every company's got an idea of what it is, and some are further ahead than others. I think we're all curious, and and we've all had successes in the first part of the year of some of the refinances that can be done through AI, setting up appointments, but it's not licensed. So you still you still got to be somebody dealing with people some somewhere. And to me, that's all exciting. It's kind of fun. It's a it's a it's an energizing thought to see where that can circle for this whole industry.

SPEAKER_01 10:22

You've obviously been a very prescient man, very successful man. You built this company. The play the last couple of years was made we'll buy a servicing and build our servicing book. You got rid of your TPO channel back in 2020. For when we see, when we think about where things are moving, where are you skating toward? Well, maybe I'll use a basketball analogy. Where is the next pass headed? What is what are you moving toward?

SPEAKER_00 10:48

Well, I think every mortgagee is is probably circling because of the the because of we're all swiping to the left. We're all boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, going fast. To me, you have to service the loans. You have to, because you could have a portal where you can do this, this, this, all in one website, one place. And I think every mortgagee says, I want to service loans. I cannot imagine any mortgagee saying, I don't think that's a big deal. So servicing loans, where maybe it wasn't as big a deal pre-COVID, because now the biggest thing with people and you anything you read or look at is trust. Who do they trust? Well, you bet you better service, you better be servicing your own loans and working towards that. And a lot of mortgagees are. So I think servicing is a is a huge deal. Then the next thing that everybody's got to be circling is cybersecurity. Think about it. What's going on with AI on the bad side? What can happen to any mortgagee if they don't have the right stuff in place? So it's it's an interesting time. There's a lot of people who are tired. I think it's hard to be small. I mean, the small mortgagee, the small broker. I mean, how do you protect this, this, this? How do you do this, this, this? How do you scale this, this, this? How do you do it? All those are things everybody's talking through. And, you know, it's probably what keeps us all in this industry because it's never easy.

SPEAKER_01 12:08

There's been this rise of direct to consumer, which to me sounds a lot like retail, but it has to do with servicing. You closed the wholesale TPO channel a year or two ago. When we think about the composition of channels out there in the industry, what do you see rising? What do you see falling? Where are you focused?

SPEAKER_00 12:29

You know, I think it's the loan officer is still going to win. The person wins that has a relationship with the with the with the one with the person with the most friends, most contacts, he or she's gonna still win. I mean, it's still that industry where people, it's still a big deal for people buying a house. And so the loan officer, he or she is still the winner. The one with the consumer, the connection. We had a, for example, we had a um uh nonprofit thing this week in Madison for cancer. And there's over 4,000 people there. I mean, come on, to compete, I mean, to build relationships to be part of something like that. Any market, any mortgagee that's giving in the nonprofit world, we get to meet people off social media and just relationship driven, it's still about trust. And so I just think the loan officer, he or she in markets that is still going to be the winner, no matter what the channel is. How does, I mean, how does AI compete with a nonprofit event where there's 4,000 people? And it'd be great if everybody had credit scores of 850, but people don't, not everybody does. You watch some of the stuff that happens on a daily basis behind the scenes on loans, it's not easy. If it was all easy, we'd all just do AI and be done with it. But it's not, it just doesn't work that way.

SPEAKER_01 13:44

I do appreciate where we are in this rate environment because there aren't easy loans out there. People got to wake up, grind, go work. It's got the the industry is going to go to those that are willing to put in the effort. And so it sounds like you're well positioned there. Let me step back from that statement and say when you think about leadership and leading people in these modern times, things you've learned as a leader, how you are continuing to lead, lead from the front at Fairway?

SPEAKER_00 14:14

Leadership's an ongoing for everyone, is a learning process. We in the industry deal with spikes each day. What's a spike? Some buyer, seller, realtor, employee. People get pissed off. Quick, quick, quick. You know, it's everything's good when things are good. The question is, what happens when things aren't so straight line? And this industry is not a straight line. So the question is it's a very competitive industry. People don't like each other. I remember there was a day back when Daniel Harkovy had building champions and all the CEOs got together in a round table. It honestly worked out great. And I could name the CEOs, the great guys and gals. And you know, if we had an issue, we just talked to each other through that. It's it's got a lot more cutthroat. That part of the industry I'm not much of a fan of. I don't really care. It's just competitive or whatever. Who cares? But um the industry is is becoming smaller, but you got to be able to scale. So, how do you scale? Because you gotta be you got to have systems in this vast world that we're in, you better have systems for speed. And I'm talking speed for closings, I'm talking speed for servicing, I'm talking the consumer. I mean, right now, Robbie, as good a person as you are, if you want something done and you text somebody, how quick before you're pissed off where they don't get back to you?

SPEAKER_01 15:32

Depends on the text, but if it's something urgent, you know, 20, 30 minutes, I'd be pretty upset.

SPEAKER_00 15:37

Well, then you're a pretty nice guy. Yeah, 20, 30 minutes. Okay, that then you're you're nicer than your dad. Okay. Well, I'm coming in. But I mean, but the point is that this industry is about speed. You're somebody's at a closing, something goes wrong. How fast you get back to them? All of us are in this. If we're gonna be in this game, we better recognize you better have systems for speed across the board.

SPEAKER_01 15:59

I do think with all the chatter about cost to originate, time is money, and whoever can get that time down is going to be the one that saves on the cost to originate. Let me close with something fun here. You we obviously used a basketball analogy earlier. People know that you are a true basketball savant. Lessons learned from your basketball career, watching basketball that apply to the modern mortgage market for you.

SPEAKER_00 16:32

My basketball career was embarrassing, so it's not really much to talk about there. I'd say the precious present. There's a coach that was, I'll just share the story. There was a coach that um was the head coach of Wisconsin for 14 years. And he was an when he when I was in high school, he was an assistant coach at Wisconsin. His name's Bo Ryan. And actually, Bo Ryan's first cousin uh works for us in in Georgia. His name's Richard Ryan. But anyhow, Bo, I remember never forget. And you say, Why do you chair the story? So I'll never forget. There's a guy that played in the NBA for nine years and he won two NBA championship rings with the Lakers. And back in those days, we guarded people full court, man to man. That's how practice was. And he went by me so quick the first time. I mean, I'll just say it this way: in seven years at Wisconsin, the head coach had two white guards, and I was poking white kid playing. I mean, it's just the way it was. So he he we stopped practice and he he said some very colorful things to me about guarding Wes. But he talked about the precious present. Point is if you don't get your head out of your ass like right now, he's gonna go by you again. So you better learn, you better adjust, you better pivot, and you better have a good attitude. Precious present every minute. So you gotta turn it, you gotta turn it. This industry is about turning it, about pivoting. And it's one of the best lessons I personally learned from college, and it was in a practice. You know, because he got all on me. He said, dude, get your head out of your ass. It's called the precious present. If you don't get your head out of your ass, he'll go buy you again. And the answer is I had to shift how I guarded him. He was way too quick if I did face to face. So I had to, you know, it's like basketball, you had to guard his one shoulder and steer him toward the baseline. You could turn him once, and that was how you guarded him full court to get through. But I just think that's that's a lesson for all of us. It helped me out. It still does.

SPEAKER_01 18:20

So advice, Steve. You know, I appreciate the time and uh looking forward to seeing you sometime soon.

SPEAKER_00 18:24

All right, sounds good, Robbie. See you in line. Bye-bye.

SPEAKER_01 18:29

Today's economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications falling six percent in the weekending September 25th, with refinancing down nine percent week over week and a striking 56% below the same week last year, while purchase applications declined 4% seasonally adjusted and 14% year over year. The pullback reflects the impact of mortgage rates rising to their highest level in nearly three years, pushing borrowers to the sidelines and signaling that elevated borrowing costs are increasingly weighing on both housing demand and refinancing activity. We've also received the September ADP employment change in a 90,000, better than expected, August personal income and spending, income was up 0.2%, spending was up 0.9%, PCE price index, which was up 0.3%, for PCU, which was up 0.2% month over month, and 3% year over year, Q2 GDP, the third estimate, and at 2.2%, and advanced indicators. Later today brings September Chicago PMI and remarks from Fed Governor Cook, Chicago Fed President Goolsby, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. We begin the day with agency MBS prices improved from Tuesday's close by an eight to a quarter, the two-year yielding 4.83, and the tenure yielding 5.20 after closing yesterday at 5.26%, given the somewhat tame inflation data. Let's wrap up with a joke and some house too. Inflation is everywhere. A horse walks into a bar and asks for a coke. The bartender is very surprised, and he picks up a coke from the fridge and puts it on the counter. The horse says, Thanks. How much? Bartender says, It's like ten to dollars. Bartender says, Sorry, but but it it's the very first time a talking horse came into my bar. Doris says, First and last, ten dollars for a lousy coat. Thanks again to Gateless for sponsoring this week's podcast. Gateless has intelligent automation that gives you a competitive edge, reducing costs, delivering a superior borrower experience, and mitigating risks by automating tasks and decisions historically made by people. To learn more, visit Gateless.com