7.22.26 Building Statistics; Pivot Financial's Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert on Innovation; Mortgage-Backed Security Primer

We kick off the podcast with some figures surrounding building and building patterns in the United States. Robbie then interviews Pivot Financial's Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert on the importance of data integration, diversification beyond traditional Agency products to meet borrower needs, and customer-centric approaches in the evolving mortgage landscape. And the episode closes with a primer on Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Thank you to JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to close, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs.

The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

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Speaker 0:02

Welcome to the Chrisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News Podcast. I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman. Topics on today's episode include some data behind building in the United States, a primer on agency mortgage-backed securities, and my interview with Pivot Financials, Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert on the importance of data integration, diversification beyond traditional agency products to meet borrower needs, and customer-centric approaches in the evolving mortgage landscape. From application to underwriting, JazX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. It's the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. To learn more, visit jazzax.ai. There's always something in the news, whether it's Jimothy the raccoon in the Northwest or the Canadian wildfire smoke in the Northeast, which coincided with more tariffs directed at Canada. Home builders and those who lend to them know the materials from Canada are already subject to tariffs. But the new tariffs could affect building materials such as primarily cement, doors, heating and ventilation equipment, glass, and plywood products. Speaking of building, the artificial intelligence boom in the United States is being matched by a data center building boom. There are more than 3,000 data centers in the U.S. and another 1,500 in development, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. Properties and land are being consumed by using eminent domain for the public use, once again demonstrating the intersection of government law and lending. Speaking of the intersection of government and lending, the agencies continue to tighten condominium lending standards, with the most significant changes centered on strengthening reserve funding and eliminating streamlined project reviews. Beginning in 2026 and 2027, most established condo projects will require full financial reviews. Associations must either dedicate at least 15% of annual assessment income to reserves or rely on more rigorous professionally prepared reserve studies, and lenders will face heightened scrutiny of reserve adequacy, maintenance planning, and project finances, all aimed at reducing the risk of deferred maintenance and special assessments that could jeopardize conventional financing and property values. Beyond condos, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have also recently announced a series of operational updates, including new mortgage application indexes, quality control guidance, credit score modernization initiatives, appraisal and underwriting enhancements, VA policy updates, and desktop underwriter improvements, reflecting a broader effort to modernize risk management while improving loan quality, automation, and lender efficiency. Switching gears slightly, despite a sparse economic calendar this week, bond markets have experienced notable volatility driven more by geopolitics than by fundamentals. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have lifted oil prices from recent lows, raising concerns that higher gasoline prices could reverse June's welcome decline in headline inflation, even as consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient. Mortgage-backed securities in U.S. treasuries remained under pressure, three prices down, yields up, as the defensive tone continued on Tuesday, pushing the five-year treasury yield to a new high for the year, while other yields across the curve moved closer to their 2026 peaks. Selling activity was led by the front end of the curve, with the two-year note weakening throughout the day yesterday as renewed strength in global equities reduced demand for safe haven assets. Although longer-dated treasuries have proved somewhat more resilient, they are nearing key technical levels, leaving the bond market vulnerable to a broader sell-off if yields break above important resistance. Some would say that the ten-year breaking above 4.60% qualifies as just that. For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show, Pivot Financials, Jennifer McGuinness Lever, to talk about the importance of data integration, diversification beyond traditional agency products to meet borrower needs, and customer-centric approaches in the evolving mortgage landscape. She has more than 25 years of experience spending lending, securitization, servicing, asset management, and structured finance, and she's known for pioneering innovations including institutional, single-family rental financing, tradable HELOCs, and AAA rated RMBS while leading the industry's first woman to own mortgage loan aggregation, asset management, and due diligence platform. I want your thoughts on just what you love about working in the mortgage industry so much. What drew you to the industry initially? What you still love about it? Well, we'll start on a positive foot here before I talk about all the ills and warts that are plaguing it.

Speaker 1 4:36

So when I got into the mortgage industry, it was kind of by accident. You know, I was originally a classically trained opera singer and went to a music conservatory. Wow. When I decided to leave music school, I uh decided to go back and get my my regular undergrad and I was gonna be a lawyer. So I graduated six months before I could take my entry exams called the LSAT to become a lawyer. And I decided to become a paralegal and I started working in law firms. The law firms I started working in, and I had already worked in origination of loans. I was a little bit younger than that. Law firms I started working in was foreclosure, bankruptcy, REO, eviction nationally. And between the origination, the underwriting and processing experience I had previously, plus that, I was now putting together kind of the full life cycle of what this industry is. Happy side of origination, not so happy side of origination. A couple of years later, I get poached by a client and away we go. I actually got into law school three times, never went. And I've been in this industry ever since. Why do I like being in this industry? For me, I find the industry to at times serve up very cool challenges. The thing that I like most about what I do is probably the Sherlock Holmes factor, be it behind the asset management or new product creation or creating new structures and strategies. You know, let's say we're never born in this industry, Robbie. There's always something changing, evolving, adjusting, or quite frankly, blowing up. So you need to be able to proactively react to those markets. And that's probably why I'm still sitting in this chair today. Through all the years that I've been in the industry, I've gathered a significant amount of knowledge. And I hope that what we're doing is adding value and then hopefully taking everybody to the next level. And uh that's really the goal.

Speaker 6:30

Rather than asking you when you're going to get into law school for the fourth time and where you potentially go, or I want to ask you about sing it. I had a date the other day, and my date put on Olivia Dean, and there I off I went. Okay, love you by d mean to pick a pie, but oh well, note the sell four points in you, someone else. Anyways, how how do I how do you get better at singing outside of Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours? What are keys to to pitch and range when it comes to singing?

Speaker 1 7:03

Yeah, so I actually went through a significant amount of singing training, um, had teachers and coaches and everything else. So a lot about, you know, if you're a little tone-deaf or always under is actually where your speaking voice sits is where you're supposed to be singing. So a lot of people think that you have to change that whole tone. No, you really sing, right? Where you speak. And if you can sword and then start singing on that same word, you will generally be in tune unless you really try not to be. The other thing is air. You know, a lot of people start singing and they're already choking, they're like choking already, they don't have enough air. It's another reason and another thing that'll keep you in tune. So I would say you want to try those things first. Then we can worry about everything else, like diction, you know, tempo, timing, and all that fun stuff, let alone getting out on stage.

Speaker 8:02

Yeah, holy smokes, that's pretty neat. Okay, so but before we get into the happy side of origination or not happy side of origination or other things, what are Jennifer's pursuits and passions and hobbies outside of mortgage? Where can we find you on the weekend? What do you like to do?

Speaker 1 8:17

So I love to be outside. So um, you will generally find me in an off-road vehicle, on a boat, you know, on a hiking trail, traveling somewhere cool. So I take a lot of outdoor time. Work hard and play hard is definitely real in my life. You know, I'm not really good at, you know, going on a beach vacation and sitting in a chair for multiple days. There's got to be something to do. So that's usually where you'll find me, the music thing too. I like to go to concerts, uh, shows, and a vast drive other thing.

Speaker 8:49

So work hard, play hard. You obviously run pivot financial, and so maybe that's a good segue into culture. How do you build a culture at a company and maintain or foster that? Because if you don't instill one, one will instill one will instill itself, and it's probably not going to be the one that you want. And so I've always found that the best leaders lead from the front.

Speaker 1 9:12

The majority of the pivot team is work hard, play hard. We have, you know, everybody from speedboat people here to mountain climbers to um we get somebody like a tour of volcano, like partial eruption. So, like we have a lot of work hard, play hard people here. I'd say, you know, everybody's got a very open personality that definitely is leading from the top. Just like I would speak to you, frankly, right now. Any member of this team would feel that comfortable having that conversation with me. I think too many organizations worry about what's people's level. Where do you live in your level of your organization? And that's not cool. I think that you should be able to speak to anybody, no matter what their level in an organization. And they should be willing to interact and engage with you. There's no question, that's a stupid question. As a matter of fact, when someone new joins our team, one of the things that we will tell them is I don't care if you've asked the question five times, before you sit there and stare at a screen, you should ask it again. And we're gonna get you to a place where you really understand it. Our team is about knowledge, about being able to put together a full analysis of something. So we really do believe not only come in with great skills, but you're gonna learn a lot of other things in the seat, no matter if it's your first day in the industry, or quite frankly, you've been in it for 25 plus or more years. Here, you're not successful at pivot if you come in believing you can't learn anything. I learn something new every single day. And I think those who are honest with themselves also should strive to do the same.

Speaker 10:57

I think a lot of people believe the phrase there's no such thing as a stupid question until they listen to this podcast and they realize there are a lot of things that are stupid questions out there. Regardless, I want to talk about the mortgage landscape a little bit as we as we hone in here, because obviously consolidation is happening. Obviously, right now in the market cycle, there's there's been a push to expand product offerings to meet borrowers where they are, not have to turn borrowers away. And and maybe this next part is more on the technology side than the origination side, but there's this you should be with us, but we can't necessarily state differentiators if I'm if I'm looking at one AI technology versus another. It's oh well, we're the best. Well, you sound like you do the exact same thing that other people purport to do as well. Thoughts from the the origination side. When you look back and look at the when you sit back and look at the landscape, where we are. I meant, you know, I mentioned consolidation, I meant a product, I mentioned product proliferation. I mentioned ubiquity across lenders. Just thoughts from your vantage point.

Speaker 1 11:58

So I'm gonna take those in bite sizes. You know, absolutely there is a consolidation going on in our market. Large lenders who even had servicers buying even bigger servicers, um, real estate platforms, etc. You've seen a lot of that. You know, Rocket's a good example, Penny's a good example, you know, a lot of good examples out there. Um, and then you're seeing things like Ved Bath and Beyond by Fathom Holdings that has two lenders, a real estate platform, but they also own places like Bye Bye Baby and a vast array of other businesses like that. I think the thesis here is how do I get to the borrower sooner? Me personally, I come from the school of you actually don't need all those things in order to get to the borrower sooner. You need data. And data then needs to be modeled properly and refreshed, and then a credit overlay needs to be put on. What you're seeing happen with consolidation is very expensive data acquisition. And the companies that will be the most successful will be those as they integrate those entities together. Did they do it in such a way where they truly get a transparent set of data throughout an entire life cycle of the loan? And those will be the parties that can actually capitalize on that. Um, there's been a lot of talk in our industry about if I'm a lender and I'm not part of one of these, and you know, should I shut down now or go home? The answer is absolutely not. The next 36 to 48 months for all those guys is going to be key. It's either going to work or they spent a lot of money on nothing. And then they're going to be outrating multiple independent entities still, making XYZ cash flow, but yet the universe really didn't change so much. Also, remember consolidation takes time, energy, and money, and effort. And being more nimble may actually be a strategy. So I think that's important. With regard to product diversification, I think you have no choice but to be diversifying your products game at this time. You know, a lot of guys have been stuck in that agency or agency FHA only kind of box for a very long time. And, you know, look, uh, market got lucky with a couple of refi booms there that we maybe may or may not have seen away from a global pandemic, as an example. The market is still screaming for where's my cheaper rate? And it's like, yeah, we didn't learn to sell loans based only on rate. We learned to serve a customer and the needs of a customer. And the industry needs to get back to serving a customer. For example, borrow a bomb. Bob, what are you looking to achieve? Well, you know, I'm relocating, but I know I'm only going to be there five years for this job. Okay. Well, then 30-year fixed is not necessarily their biggest thing they want to achieve with the lowest rate. They're probably more focused on payment. You can get them five years of better payments with still refiability and saleability in their houses using different products. So I think we need to get back from, oh, the rate's gone down. I could save you a couple hundred bucks, to borrower, what are you looking to achieve? Where are you in the life cycle of your life? And how long do you envision being in this house? Or if it's an investment or a second home, what are you planning to do with this over time? Really understand the borrower's needs and give them the products that will best serve those needs. And I think that's the conversation that needs to really occur, as well as an affordability conversation, which is can you really afford what you're entering into? And quite frankly, that's pretty quick to figure out. So I think that's where we sit today. But what I would say is just because a lender or an optic individual on a social media platform is screaming, this might be the next, you know, great financial crisis, that's not necessarily true. Do your own work, don't rely on random headlines, do your own jobs as well.

Speaker 16:15

We'll get to the provocateurs in a minute here, but but thoughts on breaking out of ubiquity as a company, whether you're an originator or you're a tech company, rather than just kind of saying you are actually actually being a game changer.

Speaker 1 16:29

Yeah, I mean, look, I think there's a lot of people that say things they don't do, right? Um, and I'll I'll be honest, I think like 15 minutes or less into a conversation, you will know if it's just lip service or if it's real. So I think that's important. What I would say is, you know, I think AI in a lot of ways, although I think it's important and we use it as well, is um the old school Batman cartoon, bam, bow, everybody's got AI. And I think that working with and choosing your proper counterparty isn't only about does AI spit stuff back to me? It's does AI spit back the right answer. And ones that are sourced and not made up. So I think that's important. The other is are they actually safe housing your data to the standards that you have to meet as a mortgage originator service or aggregator rating agency, except throughout the process. And not all of them do. So to your point, what's your differentiator? How do you safeguard my data? And are you gonna give me the right answer, AI or AI toolslash company? Mortgages. If you're a GSC only originator that's only been using AUS, you're not going to become a 24-month bank statement underwriter overnight. You're either gonna need to train up your underwriting team or you're gonna have to hire a team that's dedicated to new products. But unbeknownst to a lot of people in this industry, non-agency products are not all alternative documentation loans. There are full documentation non-agency products. There are one-year tax return products. There's a vast array of different types of products in the market environment. And I think as lenders start to diversify their product offering, you need to match to the products that make sense first, second, third, et cetera.

Speaker 18:22

So you threw out time, energy, effort, money. Where are you allocating those today when it comes to growing pivot and making it as successful as it can be?

Speaker 1 18:33

Yeah, so our aggregator is a non-agency aggregator focusing on non-agency products. We also have the asset management channel of our business where we oversee not only our own loans, but loans for third parties. In addition, we have breach defense group because the market requires it at this point. There's a lot more repurchase and other issues that a lot of people focus on, as well as a litigation support division and a due diligence division. So our focus is on the full life cycle of the loan, has been since this business started, and um will continue to be. We have an operating platform that really handles everything from the origination of a loan all the way through liquidation. And honestly, I built it because I got sick of building multi-billion dollar trades sitting in the funds, the REITs, the investment banks, et cetera. What's interesting is in those organizations, there is no operating platform. Um, most of the time, you raise the capital and you have a bunch of third parties, then you manage them.

Speaker 19:44

You mentioned the happy side of origination versus the not happy side of origination at the beginning of the interview. What do you mean by that?

Speaker 1 19:51

I call the happy side of origination new origination. You know, borrowers looking for a loan, being a purchase refi, et cetera. They're going through the underwriting process, they're qualified. The not so happy side of origination is the default scenarios or the life challenges or the types of things that could make it that you may not be able to pay your monthly payments. I also would consider the not so happy side to be borrowers that are absolutely paying. They would love to sell their house, but the value of their house maybe doesn't allow that. Or the market that they're sitting in has too much listed. So there are those types of challenges as well.

Speaker 20:37

Thoughts on what the industry needs from well, maybe I'll leave it open, open-ended and say thoughts on what the industry needs. I was going to go from a product perspective, but maybe what you think the industry is is still missing that there's a competitive advantage to be had out there.

Speaker 1 20:52

The headlines are skewing people from uh diversifying their product offerings instead of them doing the work and probably enhancing their bottom line and also creating really good loans that are credit risk insulated properly, just using different products. So I think right now I would say there is plenty of opportunity available for people to take advantage of. There are other products that are in the process of being designed or refined, but um overall, right now, there is an opportunity to truly diversify and be able to work with almost any borrower.

Speaker 21:35

You have a history of bringing new products to market. Lessons learned from that that you can maybe that you can dole out to other people on this podcast, or lessons learned that that you think will help you pivot, be successful longer term?

Speaker 1 21:51

Yeah, so I would say in new product design. So let's say you're bringing a new loan program to market, but you're actually building it. You know, I think first and foremost, you want to know what's the opportunity or what's the problem that you're trying to solve. Meaning, does the market even need the product? When I was younger in designing products years ago, I would design the product completely before I would speak to investors, the rating agencies, the liquidity providers, et cetera. After you do this a few times, you really learn that you want to have a product scape, a matrix, a little bit more high-level before you have those conversations versus something that's fully baked because you are going to adjust what you're thinking. In addition, liquidity is key. So at this point in my career, I start with liquidity first with a product scape. Whereas earlier in my career, I felt like everything needed to be final before you could talk to the liquidity providers. And that would either be term financing, how are we going to securitize this product with the rating agencies, or guys that buy loans? So I'd say you really learn over the course of an almost 30-year career not to dissect every leaf on every tree before you figure out what your end game is going to be. Being able to do that with legitimacy.

Speaker 23:21

So that begs the question: what's your end game? And I will ask a follow-up to that afterwards about who people should listen to and stuff. But but for you, what is what's the end game in mortgage?

Speaker 1 23:35

Um, I'm not really exactly sure if I'm being honest, Robbie, what an end game in mortgage is. I know that there's a lot more to be done. And I know I want to be a part of that. You know, a lot of people ask me, is your goal to build pivot and sell it? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on what we continue to evolve this business into. I'm also open to someone eventually sitting in my seat and maybe doing something even more diversified. For me, what keeps me excited about coming to work each and every day are still solving those challenges with great partners and bringing the creative outlet to it. The day that mortgage becomes boring to me, I don't believe there's more that we can enhance or do, et cetera, is the day I will step out of it.

Speaker 24:23

So then it begs the question: how do you qualify success? What's a successful day look like for you?

Speaker 1 24:31

So uh success at Pivot, because we have two different silos, is different depending upon the silo. We are super excited when on our asset management silo, for example, in our litigation support division, when we are able to see a litigation settle versus continue in a trial or litigated form. With regard to due diligence, it's you know, creating and giving the best due diligence possible. On the breach side of things, I love when we win complex arguments and so do our clients. Really just making sure that, you know, our lender partners on the repurchase side are not buying back loans, they shouldn't be. On the loan side of things, it's about hitting our targets, aggregating those loans, you know, liquidating them, separatizing, et cetera. And bringing the best customer service profile to our lender partners is important. You know, I think the longer you're in this business, you really learn whether you're sitting in a lender or wherever you are in the life cycle, not everything is about price. It's also about process. We are definitely not perfect. Have we, you know, had moments where we could have done better or didn't do the best job? Yes. And anybody who says their business is perfect is lying to you. But, you know, at the end of the day, we really strive to not only manage our uh portfolio and our business assets to the ultimate best case scenario. But when we're working for uh with third parties, we really treat their assets like our own personal checkbook. And that's not something you usually get from a partner.

Speaker 26:11

Jennifer, you are a wealth of information. I feel like this interview actually laid the stage for us to do several others later on and deep dive into some areas, but but for now, it was it was great getting to know you a little more. I apologize for being long overdue on having you on the podcast. And I certainly look forward to having you back and more discussions in the future. So thank you very much for the time.

Speaker 1 26:31

I look forward to it. And thanks for having me, Robbie. I enjoyed our chat.

Speaker 26:37

Since it's a light news week, here's a little primer or update on agency mortgage-backed securities, which behave differently from traditional bonds because homeowners' ability to refinance creates embedded prepayment options, making MBS prices and durations respond nonlinearly to interest rate changes. That dynamic explains why investors favor stable rate environments as they reduce hedging costs and prepayment uncertainty, while today's elevated mortgage rates have pushed many legacy low coupon securities so far out of the money that negative convexity has largely dissipated, leaving the broader mortgage-backed security market with an unusually benign convexity profile. However, higher coupon mortgage-backed securities still carry meaningful extension and prepayment risk, making pool composition increasingly important since loans with note rates close to prevailing mortgage rates can continue to refinance even when the broader coupon appears out of the money. Today's economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which rose 1.9% last week as a solid 6% increase in purchase applications more than offset a modest decline in refinancing. Put another way, purchase demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs, even with the average 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbing to 6.69% for this survey, its highest level since last August. Purchase applications edged above year-ago levels, while refinance activity remains modestly higher than a year earlier. As you've probably heard, this week is very data-light. Accordingly, the only other economic release of note today's weekly crude oil inventories. There will also be an auction of $13 billion of 20-year bonds. We begin the day with agency MBS prices, little change from yesterday's close, the two-year yielding 4.26%, and the 10-year yielding 4.63% after closing yesterday at 4.63%. Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping. After 65 years of marriage, my buddy's grandpa still calls grandma honey, sweetie, baby, and sugar. I asked him for the secret to keep love alive so long. He replied, I forgot her name 10 years ago and I'm afraid to ask. Thanks again to JazzX for sponsoring this week's podcasts. JazzX is the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage and from application underwriting. It's a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. To learn more, visit jazzax.ai.