7.1.26 Stock Market Versus Economy; PennyMac’s Isaac Boltansky on Policy; Inflation Concerns

Today’s episode includes an explainer on why the stock market is not the economy. Plus, Robbie interviews PennyMac’s Isaac Boltansky on key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. And we close with an explainer on why inflation concerns are still the main driver of short-term interest rates.

Thank you to Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian.

The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

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Speaker 2 0:02

Welcome to the Chrisman Commentary, Daily Mortgage News podcast. I'm your host, Robbie Chrisman. Topics on today's episode include why the stock market is not the economy. My interview with Penny Mac's, Isaac Boltansky on key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader US economy. And yes, inflation is still a huge concern. Thanks to this week's podcast sponsor, Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. To learn more, visit Experian.com slash mortgage. We find ourselves in the third quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between A, the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and B the weight given to AI related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently. Over a thousand people recently died in France. There are 1,500 deaths in Western Europe being attributed to the climate this year. Sacre Blue, have you heard of air conditioning? No, just kidding. Returning to this country, I don't mean to laugh at death, sorry. There are six state capitals west of Los Angeles. You don't need my help in naming them. There's plenty to like about this country. Building materials giant Saint Gobain continues to expand its U.S. footprint and has invested nearly seven billion dollars in North America since 2021, deploying prefab systems that can reduce build times 30 to 50% while avoiding tariff exposure. Where there's a will, there's a way. Speaking of wills and ways, will borrowers find you through online search? According to Stratmore's latest mortgage CX data, not really. Less than two percent of refinance borrowers and just four percent of purchase borrowers found their lender through online search reviews or AI recommendations combined. Instead, nearly 90% still selected their lender through referrals, existing relationships, or prior experience. While AI may eventually reshape borrower discovery, today's business is still being driven by trust, relationships, and customer experience. The message for lenders don't ignore AI, but don't neglect the referral networks and borrower experiences that continue to drive growth. Price down, yield up. Mortgage backed securities and U.S. Treasuries declined in price Tuesday, though yields ended June with 10 and 30-year yields below where they started the month. Markets were influenced by stronger than expected Chinese economic data, cooler than expected inflation readings in major European economies, and ongoing expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, with the possibility of another rate hike before the end of 2026. Generally speaking, quarter end trading was shaped by a combination of easing inflation fears, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain patient than markets currently expect. Headline inflation has eased with lower energy prices, but persistent core inflation is keeping the Fed cautious. Markets expect policymakers to wait for more employment and inflation data before deciding on any additional rate hikes. Fixed income markets have been supported by quarter end portfolio rebalancing, while geopolitical tensions and the Supreme Court's decision affirming Federal Reserve independence had only limited and short-lived effects on treasury yields. Investors remain caught between improving inflation trends and lingering underlying price pressures, making upcoming economic data the key driver of short-term interest rate expectations in the weeks ahead. We learned yesterday that consumer confidence edged higher in June only after a downward revision to May's reading, business activity moderated, job openings remained relatively stable, and home price growth continued to cool without meaningfully improving affordability. While national housing appreciation has slowed and the FHFA index showed a slight monthly decline, home values remain stubbornly resilient, with growing regional disparities, in other words, weaker markets in the South and Southwest versus stronger, higher cost markets. Geography and loan size continue to play an important role in mortgage-backed securities performance. Overall, the economy seems to be gradually losing momentum but not deteriorating sharply. The fabled soft landing. For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show Penny Max Isaac Boltansky to talk about key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. He's managing director, head of public policy, and is a widely respected expert in the financial services and mortgage industry. In his role, he develops and executes a comprehensive public policy strategy that strengthens Penny Max relationships with key government and industry stakeholders, including engaging with federal and state policymakers, regulatory agencies, and industry associations. He also monitors regulatory developments, advocates for policies that align with PennyMax objectives, and provides thought leadership on key housing finance policy issues.

Speaker 1 5:16

You are a person that the industry looks toward in terms of guidance. And I want your thoughts, generally speaking, high-level on how an established housing policy would help the market in the United States. And maybe this is too utopian or fantasy to think that we will actually get to something approximating that. But your thoughts on the benefits of actually having a coherent housing policy.

Speaker 5:41

Something that I've learned over my time is we have a national mortgage finance system and a local housing reality. And sometimes that incongruity creates friction. And I think that what I've been heartened by over the past probably 10 years or so is that DC has finally come around to the idea that there is a supply crisis. And this is one of those areas where you see the both ends of the ideological spectrum, the far left and far right, we've seen that's turned into a little bit of a horseshoe. And those far left and far right agree on certain things, like 10% interest rate caps for credit cards and prescription drugs are too high. One of the areas where they agree is that we have an acute housing supply shortage. I think that's one of the reasons that we're finally seeing legislative movement on this end. For the first time in a generation, they're actually taking action. And I know we're going to talk about the scale and impact of the bill, but from a big picture, I would say that we should all be incredibly heartened and excited that DC has finally come around to the idea that there is a problem and they are starting to move forward on solutions.

Speaker 1 6:55

So before we get to the actual bill that was recently passed and is heading to the president's desk to be signed, I want to ask you what representatives should think about in terms of what kind of housing policy is needed. And obviously, Bill Poulty tweeting something or throwing things at the wall isn't, at least in one man's opinion, mine, isn't something that's uh needed or beneficial to say the least thoughts on what kind of housing policy, in your estimation, is needed.

Speaker 7:22

This is basically like if your housing czar for a day, what what would you do? There are a multitude of things. I think on day one, I would look at some areas where you can try to streamline and expedite things. Like, for example, a GSE streamline refinance makes a lot of sense to me. I think there's a reason why that's there. That refinancing on that end, I think, is something that's good for the homeowner and it's good for the economy. It's a bottom-up economic stimulus. That's a good one. Another area that I look at is capital gains. I think that there are a lot of individuals who are staying in their homes and not moving because they don't want the tax consequence. So what they'll do is they'll just sit on it and they'll pass it to their heirs when they die. There are about 11.5 million units where the people living in are over the age of 65 and the square footage is over 2,000 feet. That tells us there is a subset of people who are sitting on homes that have appreciated meaningfully, hugely over the past few decades. And there is an argument that they are staying there because they don't want to realize that tax consequence. We shouldn't have people locked in homes for tax reasons, right? That's a good idea right there. And ultimately, I think that what I continue to advocate for, and I think what Penny Mac continues to advocate for more broadly, is there is no panacea. There isn't a single policy that will fix everything because there are 85 different reasons why we're in this mess. There isn't a single reason why there's a supply shortage. And so I think that we have to continue to embrace singles and doubles. Singles and doubles are good. Small ball still wins games. This bill that we're going to talk about is a definition of small. There's no big hitter there, but you put them all together and you start to see that the direction of travel is correct.

unknown 9:11

Yeah.

Speaker 1 9:12

Less and less hitters are going for above 300 in the major leagues, but we I would like to get back to that. I'd like to get to more singles and doubles here when it comes to housing finance. Obviously, and we've alluded to it a couple of times. Now, a bipartisan housing bill titled the 21st Century Road to Housing Act was just passed in Congress. It's obviously a significant achievement that lawmakers and both parties are pretty eager to tout. It'll it'll roll back some permitting regulations, it'll limit corporations from buying up single-family homes, among other things. The downside is this is the first big push in decades to change regulations and address problems that have limited the nation's housing supply and led to high costs of homeownership and renting nationwide. We can sprinkle some plotits here. I guess I would kind of steer you in the direction of we are seeing housing become a bipartisan issue. Thoughts on now that this has passed, what it could lead to. Does it open the door for other things? Obviously, use the words, the word panacea. This is not a panacea, but it's a good start. Thoughts on the bill? Where we go from here.

Speaker 10:15

My entire career, I've watched congressional hearings. That's something that that is a part of my job. And in these hearings, you hear some of the same old lines used time and time again. One of them is don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. And then politicians, of course, go and let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and nothing happens. This is one of those areas where for the first time we can say they didn't. They actually move forward. And there are positives in here that are going to actually help people, right? I think that there are things uh like expediting the NEPA reviews, making it quicker to build, things like using pattern books so that we can more expeditiously go through that process. Those are good things. I think it's great that we're gonna actually start looking at small dollar loans and how we can make those more affordable. That's a meaningful outcropping of this. And then for me, I think manufactured housing is the huge winner. And I think that if we're gonna solve the affordability crisis, manufactured housing is gonna have to be part of the solution. Has to be. Manufactured housing costs half as much as site-built housing. The math has to math. And with manufactured housing, it does. And so I think that you have really meaningful movement there in this bill. So look, all of those things are positive. I think all of those things should be wins. And my hope is that they're gonna build on this and say, gosh, we could do hard things. Let's do it again. Now, look, I think that the baseline for everyone should be that there's gonna be some degree of divided government, which could make governing on bigger issues really hard. And maybe they look at housing and say, look at what we did last year, let's go back and take another bite at the apple.

Speaker 1 11:52

Well, they're certainly eager to declare victory, both both part members of both parties here. However, Congress has been mired in shutdowns. There's been little progress in legislating. I believe that Congress only has about two weeks of actual work left before the election. And rather than talking down the road, talking now, in your estimation, do you think anything will get done here before midterms on the housing front? Maybe it'll be another couple executive orders and we'll see how that plays out. But your thoughts?

Speaker 12:19

I think this bill gets signed into law, and I think that that's a meaningful development for housing. Beyond that, I think that you will see some targeted releases from the agencies around home ownership month, which it is, you know, DC loves its months, and home ownership month is one that I think you'll probably get some releases. But the headline banner is the legislative development of the 21st Century Road for Housing Act.

Speaker 1 12:45

When we think about originators and lenders out there listening to this podcast or thirsty to be kind of on the ball and figuring out what's going on out there. Anything else in your estimation that should be on the radar of originators and lenders currently?

Speaker 12:57

All of us who listen to your work, and I'm one of them, are pretty up and and on the ball already. I would say that there is uh still lots of work being done on the credit score front with both the vantage score for um uh effort and hopefully in the near future, the FICO 10T. I think that those are items that will continue to engender a fair amount of interest. I think that you'll continue to have a focus on that corner of the market from a headline perspective. And and look, I want to give the FHFA director credit here. Like he's shown a light on that corner of the market, which I think is warranted. We've seen our credit reporting costs go up by roughly 50% year over year. The industry cites data 500% over a certain period. It's worthwhile to look at that corner of the market while also saying more can be done elsewhere. And so I think that that's one area that I'll continue to watch because I think that there's an enormous interest in DC and in those fees and those costs.

Speaker 1 13:57

I want to talk about your role at Penny Mac a little bit, your managing director, ahead of public policy. What inspired you to pursue that line of work? What do you like about it? And what's your what's your day, what's the day-to-day look like for somebody working on public policy as it pertains to the mortgage sector?

Speaker 14:16

So I started my career in DC working for the TARP Oversight Panel. That was the panel that oversaw the $700 billion bailout back when $700 billion seemed like a lot of money for DC, which now it doesn't, which is staggering in its own right. Uh, and then I spent about 15 years on the sell side working for uh uh investors, hedge funds, and mutual funds, writing updates about DC. And and my love of housing finance is well known because you know, when my wife had her twins three years ago, our twins, a little boy and a girl, uh, I asked her to name them Fanny and Freddie. That's how much I love these issues. And look, I left the sell side in large part because first off, David Spector gave me an opportunity. And so that's answer number one. But number two, because I thought that there would be a window here to really move policy and to really have an impact. And from this seat at Penny Mac, uh, I think that we're able to have a voice in major issues relating to origination and servicing and the future of the market and all of that lined up at the right time.

Speaker 1 15:21

Do you elaborate a little bit on how things actually get done? Because I remember going to DC for MBA's advocacy conference and met with my representative, and they on both sides of the aisle, and they were like, Yeah, we want housing policy, we want housing policy. And it's take the trigger lead bill took so long. This bill took a long time, just just the the process and the machinations of getting something across the finish line, even when it seems like there's consensus.

Speaker 15:47

One of my favorite lines about DC is things are impossible up until they're inevitable. And that's kind of the way the legislation works, right? It's not gonna happen, it's not gonna happen, it's not gonna happen. Are you coming to the bill signing? That's kind of how these issues work. And I think I think it's worthwhile to take a take a moment here to talk about MBA and talk about HPC and talk about the the trades who do this day in and day out, because ultimately that is what you have to do from a legislative perspective. Because that staffer across the table from you has a pretty big portfolio and mortgage is just one part of it. And so folks like the MBA, when they're pounding the pavement, they got to do it every single day in order to keep our issues at the top of the list. Because look, ultimately, folks in DC have short attention spans. I think of that movie up, and you have the dog there and he yells, squirrel, right? That's DC. We have very short attention spans. So you need folks like the MBA and others pounding the pavement every day to keep our issues at the top of the list. So that when there is an opportunity to move a bill, we're ready. We have the legislative language ready. We've cleared it with all the vested stakeholders, we have CBO scores, we know how it's going to work, industry's ready to implement if it goes, because you don't get many of those windows. And so ultimately, what I've learned in my my watching from this seat is that it's about persistency, it being a voice that they can rely on when they need you, because these things do move fast when they move.

Speaker 1 17:13

There's a lack of attention spans, and there's also a lack of expertise when it comes to housing among representatives. And from your seat, what do you wish more representatives, more people in Congress understood about the housing finance system, understood about the mortgage industry that that doesn't seem to be common knowledge, though?

Speaker 17:35

I think my list is probably too long, Robbie, for our time together. But I would just say that the number of folks on the Hill who were here during the crisis has dwindled. The number of folks who have experience with the mortgage industry has um surprised me how little it is. Um, and so I think that ultimately it's a question of educating and being a good partner in explaining how our industry works. It's not easy. And it's not just the acronyms, it's the totality of nuance that defines mortgage. And so having uh trusted partners who are willing to answer questions, I think, is the most important thing that I can do and the MBA and HPC and my colleagues at other shops can do because I wouldn't say there is a deep understanding of how Fanny and Freddie work or how Ginny works on the Hill. And so that's why we have jobs.

Speaker 1 18:35

And in closing, as we move through 2026, what's on your agenda plate? Where's your focus? I know you mentioned credit costs earlier, among other things. Just where where are you going to be focusing your energy?

Speaker 18:49

I think that there is enormous work that can be done on altering the, and here I am, I'm going to use acronyms, I'm sorry, but the um ability repay or ATR QM rule at the CFPB. And I think if you alter that, then you allow for streamlined refinances at Fannie and Freddie, the way that we already have them at FHA and VA. And I think that that is a win-win-win. It's a win for the consumers, it's a win for uh for the GSEs to create a level playing field, and it's a win for the economy because of the stimulative impact. So that's something that I think warrants more attention. I think that that's something that can get done. And Robbie, I hope it does get done.

Speaker 1 19:31

Isaac, very much appreciate the time. You are a wealth of knowledge. Sorry it took me so long to get you on here. Hopefully, we'll have you back on soon.

Speaker 19:38

Thanks for the time, Robbie.

Speaker 2 19:42

Today's economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which were essentially unchanged for the weekending June 26th, as purchase activity increased while refinance applications dipped slightly. Purchase applications rose 1% from the previous week and were 3% higher than a year ago, while refinance applications fell 1% week over week but remained 9% above year ago levels as mortgage rates eased slightly. Ahead of payrolls tomorrow, we've also received June ADP employment change. U.S.-based employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, down 53% from the 97,06 job cuts announced in May. June's total is down 4% from the 47,999 cuts announced the same month last year, and marks the lowest monthly total since December 2025. Later today brings final June SP Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, May Construction Spending, and June ISM Manufacturing Index. We begin Wednesday with agency MBS prices, worse about a quarter from Tuesday's close, the two-year yielding 4.18, and the 10-year yielding 4.49 after closing a Tuesday at 4.42%, down three basis points in June, but up 11 basis points in the second quarter. Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping. Here's how to sing the blues. A primer, a part three or four. No one will believe it's the blues if you wear a suit, unless you happen to be an old ethnic person and you slept in it. Do you even have a right to sing the blues? Yes, if you're older than dirt, you're blind. You shot a man in Memphis. You can't be satisfied. No, if you have all your teeth, you were once blind but can now see. The man in Memphis lived and you have a 401k or trust fund. Blues is not a matter of color. It's a matter of bad luck. Tiger Woods cannot sing the blues. Sonny Liston could. Ugly white people also got a leg up on the blues. If you ask for water and your darling give you gasoline, it's the blues. Other acceptable blues beverages are cheap wine, whiskey or bourbon, muddy water, or nasty black coffee. The following are not blues beverages. Perrier, Chardonnay, Snapple, Slimfast, or Diet Coke.

Speaker 1 22:02

Thanks again to Experian for sponsoring today's podcast.

Speaker 2 22:05

From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. To learn more, visit Experian.comslash mortgage and lead a smarter housing journey with Experian.