5.14.26 MBS Performance; Flex’s Ryan Metcalf on Demand; Consumer Consumption Characteristics

In today’s episode, we go through the recent performance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Plus, Robbie sits down with Flex’s Ryan Metcalf for a discussion on how financial fragility is reshaping the foundation of homeownership demand, challenging traditional credit models, and forcing lenders and policymakers to rethink risk, readiness, and the role of demand-side solutions. And we close by walking through consumer consumption characteristics.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

Today’s podcast is brought to you by nCino. As conversations kick off this week at nSight 2026, mortgage professionals are exploring the technologies and strategies redefining origination experiences and transforming lead-to-loan economics. The nCino Mortgage Suite — Mortgage Point of Sale, Mortgage Analytics, and Incentive Compensation — helps lenders connect operations, insights, and borrower engagement in one modern platform. Learn more at nCino.com/mortgage.

Transcript

Every once in a while, I break out of bunking down at Hilton’s DoubleTree in the U.S., despite the tasty cookie. Recently I spent some time in Indonesia. Yes, the region is known for its nefarious computer activities, but what immediately strikes you are the two-wheeled vehicles: the country is estimated to have 120-132 million scooters and motorcycles, and I can guarantee you that a good chunk of them don’t have license plates or registrations. Try running a mortgage company in the U.S. without rules and regulations. How about trying to run your company’s AI efforts without knowing the rules? Testing suggests Google's AI overviews tells millions of lies per hour. Colorado rewrote its landmark AI law: “Unpacking SB 26-189 and what it means for businesses” described by Ballard Spahr. AI, recapture, and capital markets were one of the topics in yesterday’s Capital Markets Wrap. Certainly, companies in our biz are grappling with the AI influence on the manufacturing process, and using it for guideline questions, is something on which many lenders are ruminating. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by nCino, and its Mortgage Suite that supports a modern homeownership journey. This week at nSight 2026, mortgage leaders will explore how AI, intelligent automation, and connected experiences are reshaping lending operations and borrower engagement. Hear an interview with Flex’s Ryan Metcalf on how financial fragility is reshaping the foundation of homeownership demand, challenging traditional credit models, and forcing lenders and policymakers to rethink risk, readiness, and the role of demand-side solutions.)

Employment and transitions

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Supreme Lending has announced that Branch Manager Austin Baker and his ten-person team, formerly Bonck & Baker Mortgage Group and now operating as Lasso Lending, have joined the company. A fourth-generation Houstonian and 16-year industry veteran, Baker leads a $100M+ annual production operation known throughout Greater Houston for speed, clarity, and execution. The team brings expertise across purchase, new construction, refinance, jumbo, and complex self-employed borrower scenarios, backed by more than 160 five-star reviews. The move deepens Supreme Lending's presence in one of the most active housing markets in the United States. Founder and CEO Scott Everett said: "You find people who have already built something the right way, and you get behind them. Austin and his team know how to win, they take care of their clients, and they do it consistently. Our job now is to give them the platform to do it at an even higher level." BeSupremeToday: Join the award-winning team!

“eLEND continues investing in the future of lending with the addition of Roman Ramora as Chief Technology & Innovation Officer. With more than 15 years of experience spanning FinTech, investment banking, AI, cloud architecture, and digital transformation. His leadership underscores our commitment to investing in technology, automation, and scalable processes designed to create a smarter, faster, and more intuitive experience for both clients and partners. From streamlining workflows to enhancing the digital lending journey, we remain focused on building solutions that support long-term growth and operational excellence. This is just one of many exciting initiatives underway as we continue evolving our platform and expanding what’s possible for our partners. And we’re not stopping there… stay tuned next week as we prepare to announce an exciting new program release. Read here: Press Release Visit elendtpo.com, call 1-800-375-6071, or email sales@elend.com (NMLS 2826) Want in on this action? Partner today.”

Radian Promotes Deanna Kase to Regional Vice President, East Region! Radian is pleased to announce the promotion of Deanna Kase to Regional Vice President of the East Region. Deanna has 15 years of experience with Radian, during which she has consistently demonstrated high performance, a customer-first approach, and an exceptional level of professionalism and follow-through. She is widely recognized for building trusted relationships with customers and approaching every challenge with a solutions-oriented mindset. a testament to what is possible through hard work, consistency, and dedication to the industry. Reach Deanna directly at 727-457-5752 or by email. Radian is thrilled to congratulate Deanna Kase on this well-deserved promotion.

Lender and broker products, software, & services

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Operational risk in bankruptcy servicing rarely comes from a single catastrophic failure. More often, it emerges from small breakdowns in coordination across timelines, systems, and compliance obligations. Most servicing organizations have the policy knowledge to manage bankruptcy. What's harder to build is the workflow infrastructure to manage it consistently, at volume, without depending on institutional memory or manual intervention at every critical juncture. In CLARIFIRE®’s latest blog, “Why Bankruptcy Workflows Continue to Challenge Mortgage Servicers,” we examine the specific workflow gaps that rising bankruptcy volume tends to expose, from automatic stay response windows and proof of claim accuracy to Rule 3002.1 compliance and post-discharge reconciliation, and the value a rules-based approach can provide. If bankruptcy servicing is on your radar for 2026, it is worth the read.

“PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), understands the importance of efficiency when it comes to meeting mortgage lenders funding requests. “Express Funding” is how we help our customers reduce the time needed to get loans funded quickly. Express Funding allows our customers to submit multiple loans for funding in one simple data upload, whether it is one loan or 100 loans. We have a growing list of 5,000+ approved closing agents, No Doc funding requirements and funding turn times averaging under 20 minutes! As a well-capitalized financially strong banking partner we give our customers confidence in an uncertain market. If you are attending the MBA Secondary Conference in NY and interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, please contact John White.”

Planning to be in New York during the MBA’s Secondary Marketing Conference? Take the opportunity to meet with AmeriHome and hear all about its growing product catalogue! From the expansion of their AUS Jumbo Express program to the live Non-Agency Scenario Desk, AmeriHome continues to enhance its deep library of products and services to provide clients the tools they need to grow their business. Next up: AmeriHome will be live on LoanNex for Non-Agency product and pricing starting next Monday! The company is also releasing updated guidance on Prepayment Penalties for DSCR products, so make sure to connect with your sales rep for details on all the latest updates. If you won’t be in NY next week, check AmeriHome’s events page to see where the team will be throughout the rest of 2026, find your sales executive here, and follow AmeriHome Correspondent on LinkedIn to stay in-the-know for future updates!

Asset Based Lending is proving what happens when loan officers and brokers have a platform built for execution. ABL recently achieved its first-ever $100M+ RTL closing month, funding $103 million across 111 loans, a 91 percent Y-o-Y increase and new company record. That kind of momentum comes from more than market demand. It comes from giving originators the speed, support, and certainty they need to win consistently. At ABL, you’ll benefit from responsive teams, direct access to decision-makers, and flexible lending solutions across bridge, construction, rehab, and DSCR products. Want to learn how top-performing brokers are winning more deals and building stronger pipelines in today’s market? Join Seth Blumenthal, VP and Loan Officer, for a new webinar, “Broker Playbook: Winning Deals & Growing Your Pipeline with ABL,” on May 20 at 3 PM ET. Learn actionable strategies for structuring stronger submissions, increasing close rates, and scaling repeat business. Register here

Investor acceptance has long been the reason lenders put eNote adoption on hold, but that barrier no longer holds up. The eNote investor landscape has fundamentally shifted, with over 90 investors now accepting eNotes through the MERS® eRegistry, spanning GSEs, national banks, warehouse lenders, mortgage companies, and housing finance agencies. In a new blog, ICE Mortgage Technology's Harry Gardner breaks down exactly who's participating, and why the question has shifted from "will investors accept my eNotes?" to "is my organization ready to produce them?" If eNote adoption has been on your radar, this is the market update you need. Read the full blog to see where your existing investor relationships may already put you closer to eNote-ready than you think.

Less back-and-forth. More first-time-right verifications. Truework replaces manual verification waterfalls with a single automated platform, so underwriters, LOs, and ops can cut down the document chasing, conflicting numbers, and last-minute corrections. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times, higher accuracy, and stronger R&W relief. Trusted by top lenders in the U.S., Truework gives your team verification results they can rely on. Learn more.

When delinquencies rise, Planet’s rated agency sub-servicing platform safeguards portfolios and protects value. Proprietary rapid onboarding streamlines transfers, shortens blackout periods, and maintains borrower contact continuity so loans perform from day one. Portfolio analytics and loan-level reporting provide clear sightlines into delinquency, true recapture, and loss mitigation performance. As markets or asset strategies shift, Planet’s nimble operating model lets you pivot quickly. Let’s connect at MBA Secondary to discuss elevating your agency performance or reach us at (585) 512-1030 or to partner with Planet.

“Join JazzX AI at MBA Secondary in NYC next week and see how top lenders are putting AI to work - cutting manual effort, speeding up loan cycles, and improving borrower experience. Our team would love to give you a quick look at how we automate document workflows, surface real-time insights, and fit into your existing systems without disruption. We’ll share what’s actually working across lenders today - not just theory. Set up dedicated time with our team.

Snapdocs announced an initiative with BNY (NYSE: BK), a global financial services platforms company, to deliver automated, end-to-end digital mortgage collateral infrastructure. “The joint initiative addresses one of the mortgage industry's most persistent operational gaps: collateral delivery that still relies on numerous manual handoffs between settlement, lenders, warehouse banks, and custodians, causing multi-day delays that can slow secondary market execution and erode per-loan profitability. The solution will combine BNY’s industry leading custody capabilities and investment in next-generation infrastructure with Snapdocs' platform, including its eVault technology, and document classification and data extraction capabilities. The solution will deliver the first connected digital infrastructure for secure, touchless, and auditable collateral delivery across the secondary mortgage market.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Capital markets: rates taking a breather

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Less than a year after MCT's generative AI advisor, Atlas, delivered the industry's first AI hedge recommendation at MBA Secondary 2025, MCT announced today that Atlas has recommended and executed a TBA trade on a live mortgage pipeline, marking the first time artificial intelligence has completed a trade action in mortgage capital markets. MCT's newly released Trade Execution Agent closes the loop between recommendation and execution, operating within client-defined parameters to conduct electronic TBA auctions and complete trades responsibly. "Last year, Atlas told us what trade to make. This year, it executed on those recommendations," said Steve Pruitt, CFO at Pike Creek Mortgage Services. "We trust Atlas because we trust how MCT built it, and that confidence only grows when you see it perform." Two additional agents, the Position Dynamics Report Agent and the BestEx Agent, are slated for release later in 2026. Read the press release for the full announcement or visit MCT at MBA Secondary May 18–19 for a live look at Atlas in action.

Market volatility within MBS continues to ease and remains well below longer-term averages. Performance across the sector has been relatively mixed and range-bound of late, with shorter-duration 15- and 20-year mortgages lagging somewhat even as spreads have generally tightened against Treasuries, a sign of stable (but cautious) investor demand. Current coupon spreads remain near the middle of their recent trading ranges, suggesting the mortgage market is neither especially cheap nor expensive overall, though some 15- and 20-year sectors still appear relatively attractive on a valuation basis. Trading activity remains strong as investors position around new issuance, and higher-coupon specified pools continue to offer the best relative value opportunities, particularly in lower pay-up stories tied to borrower characteristics like high FICO or investor properties. Still, the tone across the mortgage market remains defensive as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook. Good capital markets staff are focused on caution, liquidity, and capital preservation rather than aggressive risk-taking.

After Tuesday brought the hottest consumer prices since May of 2023, yesterday revealed the largest jump in producer prices since November of 2022. The 1.4 percent month-over-month increase in April, nearly three times expectations, lifted the year-over-year rate to 6.0 percent from 4.3 percent. The surge in producer prices wasn't just energy-related, as two-thirds of the "broad-based advance" was in the index for final demand trade services. Treasuries and MBS resisted much of the selling that followed, though the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude oil above $100/bbl, and hotter-than-expected realized inflation have contributed to the selloff that's brought 30-year yields to the highest levels since July 2025.

Investors are prepared for a near-term spike in realized inflation, but the most meaningful uncertainty is how long it persists. An increase in prices contained to three or four months will have far less impact on consumers’ ongoing inflation expectations than increases spread out over nine- to 12 months. Will the Fed raise rates to contend with the inflation spike? A full rate hike from the Federal Reserve is now priced in for early next year, which is arguably outweighing the news that Kevin Warsh was confirmed yesterday to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve by the slimmest margin (a 54-45 margin) in the history of the Senate’s confirmation of a Fed Chair nominee.

Long term maturities, like 30-year mortgages, are driven by supply and demand. Yesterday's $25 billion 30-year refunding auction was decent, but not especially strong, following poorly received 3-year and 10-year offerings from earlier in the week. Investors took advantage of 5 percent yields on 30-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007, as surging energy prices pushed inflation (and expectations for more inflation) higher. Demand was close to normal, with the yield coming in just 0.5 basis points higher than expected (“a tail”), and non-dealer buyers took a healthy 88 percent of the bonds, slightly above average. The bid-to-cover ratio (2.30x) was below its historical average. After the auction, Treasury prices fell further, suggesting investors still wanted higher yields to hold long-term government debt. 5 percent is typically where 30-year Treasuries become more attractive for pension funds and other liability-driven investors. 

As investors attempt to sort out the interaction between inflation, growth, and policy credibility, today’s busy economic calendar is already underway, and kicked off with April Retail Sales (+.5 percent as expected, unchanged ex-auto and gas), April Import/Export Prices (inflationary across the board), and Jobless Claims (211k, a touch higher than expected). Later today brings March Business Inventories, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from Cleveland Fed President Hammack, New York Fed President Williams, and Fed Governor Barr. After the salvo of economic data Agency MBS prices are a touch better than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.96, and the 10-year is yielding 4.44 after closing yesterday at 4.48 percent.

People are making end of the world jokes like there's no tomorrow.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”  The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

qoɹ & ǝᴉqqoɹ

(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)