1.22.26 Trump From Davos; LendingTree's Matt Schulz on Home Ownership; Prepayment Speeds

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we talk about the takeaways from President Trump's speech in Davos Yesterday. Plus, Robbie sits down with LendingTree's Matt Schulz for a discussion on whether the long-term wealth benefits of owning outweigh short-term cash flow challenges, especially as affordability gaps, regional policies, and rising costs risk reshaping migration, exacerbating inequality, and straining the traditional path to a “starter home.” And we close by reviewing the latest prepayment speed data.

Thank you to Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage.

Transcript

One day of bond market move can wipe out any price benefit from the Agencies buying $200 billion of Agency MBS. In his Davos speech yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, President Trump argued that homeownership is central to the American dream and criticized large institutional investors for driving up prices, saying “homes are built for people, not for corporations,” and touting an executive order aimed at restricting such investors from buying single-family homes to help buyers compete. Trump also reiterated plans to support lower mortgage costs by directing policy actions (including government purchases of mortgage-backed securities) and linked these moves to broader affordability goals, while emphasizing that he does not want housing to become so cheap that it harms existing homeowners’ equity. He framed the issue as part of a larger affordability agenda alongside proposals like capping credit card interest rates and financial reforms, even as housing economists note that supply constraints remain the root challenge. In other news at the intersection of politics, the judiciary, and the financial markets, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was expected to attend the Supreme Court’s oral argument yesterday in a case involving the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook, a show of support by the central bank chair. It appears, per news reports giving hope to those who support Fed independence, that the Supreme Court is skeptical of President Trump’s ability to fire her. Stay tuned. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with LendingTree's Matt Schulz on whether the long-term wealth benefits of owning outweigh short-term cash flow challenges, especially as affordability gaps, regional policies, and rising costs risk reshaping migration, exacerbating inequality, and straining the traditional path to a “starter home.”)

Employment, title co. partner sought, and a death

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Primis Mortgage closed out 2025 with major momentum, posting 45 percent year‑over‑year growth and expanding its footprint by adding teammates in five new states. The record-breaking performance reflects the strength of a sales team that National Sales Director Chris Blevins calls “a roster of all‑stars,” fueled by creativity, grit, and a commitment to delivering standout client experiences. Blevins noted that Primis is doubling down in 2026 with more innovative products and a continued push to recruit top talent nationwide. CEO John Owens also credited the company’s operational backbone, calling the back‑office staff “the engine that powers every win”—a team that kept loans moving quickly, accurately, and with care throughout the year. With rapid growth, expanded national presence, and a people‑first approach, Primis Mortgage heads into 2026 ready to raise the bar even higher for borrowers across the country.

You are invited to learn how Fairway Independent Mortgage is supporting loan officers and branch managers to succeed on their mortgage journey. Today, January 22nd, at 3PM ET, there will be an anonymous virtual meeting that will bring you “behind the curtain” with the executive team and others for this successful independent mortgage bank: January Fairway Day Registration Zoom.

A well-established, national title insurance and escrow agency based in New York, with 20 years of successful operations, is seeking a strategic partner to expand sales and market presence. The ideal candidate is an individual or company with strong banking, real estate and lending relationships, interested in a merger, joint venture, salesman or equity partnership with the sole principal. This opportunity is well suited for professionals who understand the profitability of the title insurance industry and are looking to participate in the title side of the business. This is a rare opportunity to step into an existing, fully operational national platform and immediately leverage established infrastructure, licensing, and underwriting relationships. Interested principals should send a confidential note of interest to Chrisman LLC's Anjelica Nixt to pass it along to the president of the company; specify opportunity.

“Go Companies, a technology-driven mortgage platform backed by institutional capital, today announced Jay Promisco has been appointed CEO where he will lead the company's next chapter with the mandate to modernize mortgage origination through automation, data-driven decisioning and scalable growth across multiple channels with a clear focus on people, culture and delivering an exceptional mortgage experience.” Congratulations!

The industry lost a veteran. First American’s Kurt Pfotenhauer passed away. Mark Seaton, the CEO of First American Financial Corporation, simply said, “Our deepest sympathies go out to his wife, Nancy, children, and grandchildren. Kurt was a distinguished leader in our industry and a valued member of the First American team. Kurt dedicated many years to advancing the title and mortgage industries, serving in key roles that shaped policy and created lasting relationships... Kurt was a guiding force in various industry organizations, including the American Land Title Association (ALTA), the Housing Policy Council, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)…”

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders

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Curious when a shift from best efforts to mandatory delivery makes sense or how to sharpen an existing hedging strategy? Optimal Blue’s Hedging 101: The Benefits of Mandatory Delivery offers a clear look at the fundamentals that shape effective secondary marketing execution. In this Jan. 27 session, industry leaders Jim Glennon, SVP of hedging and trading operations, and Brad Eskridge, capital markets solutions specialist, will cover the core principles of hedging, available tools, and key operational and economic considerations when choosing mandatory delivery over best efforts. You’ll also see how Optimal Blue’s hedge advisory, analytics, and modeling support more confident, data‑driven decisions. Whether you are evaluating a move to mandatory or refining your current approach, join us on Jan. 27 at 12 p.m. CT to see how a stronger, more confident hedging approach can enhance your execution. Register today.

Planet has strengthened its correspondent sales team with the addition of Scott Henley, a mortgage industry veteran with more than 30 years of experience across correspondent, retail, and capital markets. Supporting correspondent partners across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, Scott brings a practical, informed perspective shaped by experience on all sides of the table and helps lenders align delivery strategies with their business goals. That approach is supported by Planet’s correspondent platform, which offers competitive pricing, broad product offerings, and flexible execution across best efforts, mandatory, and AOT. Lenders can deliver through flow, bulk, and all co-issue options using a fast, highly automated process designed to reduce friction and support scalable growth. Meet Scott Henley and Jason Mac Gloan, SVP of Correspondent Sales, at Texas MBA Southern Secondary next month in Houston, or connect directly to discuss your correspondent strategy. Scott Henley (469-498-1783) or Jason Mac Gloan (843-625-6869). Learn more.

APB Wholesale’s One-Time Close Construction loans are redefining construction financing for borrowers, whether they’re building their dream home, next investment property, or doing a major renovation on an existing home. Broad range of loan programs covers full-doc and alt-doc, including DSCR options for investment properties, and P&L and Bank Statement options for self-employed borrowers! These loan programs combine construction and permanent financing into one loan, with one approval and one closing, regardless of whether it’s a primary home, second home, or investment property. Flexible loan programs include options to qualify borrowers with profit and loss statements, bank statements, and even future rents in qualified scenarios. Supported by APB Wholesale’s experienced construction loan specialists, this program moves your borrowers from building concepts to completion – faster and easier. Become an Approved Broker to Get Started. Visit apbwholesale.com. APB Wholesale is the wholesale arm of American Pride Bank’s mortgage division. Equal Housing Lender. For industry professionals only. Not intended or directed at consumers. NMLS #402598 

“Kicking off 2026, Citi Correspondent Lending is eager to build on the momentum of a very successful 2025, maintaining focus on fostering growth and delivering meaningful new and enhanced opportunities for our Sellers. We're excited to have introduced this past week the first of a series of planned enhancements designed to unlock opportunities to grow your business and potentially deepen our shared market reach. Our Non-Agency Jumbo program’s credit expansion features increased maximum loan amounts for both primary and second home transaction types, plus an increased cash-out limit for refinance transactions. We encourage you to connect with your Account Executive to explore how these, in addition to Citi’s comprehensive offerings, can best support your unique strategic goals. New clients are always welcome to complete our questionnaire. Please stay tuned: we have much more planned for a strong and successful 2026!”

“In today’s highly competitive mortgage market, every decision counts. Having access to comprehensive, reliable data is not only a want but a need for lenders looking to make smarter, more strategic decisions to get ahead of the competition. That’s where we come in. ICE can help you stand out by delivering robust data paired with the clarity, confidence, and insights you need to help drive your business forward. Our suite of nationwide property data covers 99.99 percent of all U.S. properties, across 3,100 counties, providing you with a complete view of the property landscape. Further, because of ICE’s commitment to data quality, you gain access to information directly from the source, with rigorous validation processes applied so you always have accurate, reliable, and current data at your fingertips. Whether you're focused on market‑share analysis, prospecting, portfolio retention or optimizing your operations, ICE’s Property Data delivers the insights you need to perform, and compete, with confidence. Learn more here.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR on operational readiness

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Loan volume will return… The question is whether lenders will be operationally ready when it does. In his latest Customer Experience Tip, STRATMOR Director of Customer Experience Mike Seminari explains why strong borrower experiences aren’t driven by heroic loan officers alone, but by consistent processes, clear expectation-setting, and real-time feedback embedded across the organization.

Today’s borrowers still value personal relationships, but their tolerance for breakdowns, surprises, and missed commitments is shrinking. Lenders that use this cycle to hardwire CX into their operating model will be best positioned to scale smoothly, protect pull-through, and generate repeat and referral business when demand rebounds. Read the full article.

Webinars & webcasts from your La-Z-Boy today & tomorrow

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Don’t want to dress up… or even leave the house? Tune in from your couch!

Today at noon PT there’s The Big Picture featuring Erin Dee joining Rich Swerbinsky and Rob Chrisman to discuss what is working operationally at scale in today’s market. The conversation also looks at what Texas is seeing now that may foreshadow broader industry trends.

The Fix and Flip business is a hot topic to kick off 2026. Join OSC Insurance Services for “Become Fearless in the Fix and Flip Business” webinar on Thursday, January 22nd at 2 P.M. EST. Stay on top of the most relevant industry buzz at the beginning of the year.

National MI January 2026 webinar sessions, brought to you by National MI University.

How to Spark Momentum & Hit Goals in 2026 with Kendra Lee: January 22 @ 1 pm ET.

Join Freddie Mac servicing team on Thursday, January 22, from 2:30 – 3:30 p.m. ET, for an important Servicer Information Session. Topics will include the latest policy updates, a preview of future announcements and emerging innovations, and a live question and answer segment.

On tomorrow’s Last Word at 10AM PT, the weekly roundtable returns with Christy Soukhamneut, Coby Hakalir, Kevin Peranio, and Brian Vieaux. The group breaks down market signals, agency developments, and what the industry got right and wrong over the past week.

There are the National MI, ARCH MI, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and Enact training calendars.

Capital markets: prepayment speeds matter

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With many lenders offering sub-6 percent rates, even as rates tick back up, execution strategy matters more than ever. Mandatory loan sale delivery often unlocks greater execution and profitability with a typical 10–50 basis point pickup over best efforts when managed effectively. In MCT’s blog post, Introduction to Mandatory Loan Sale Delivery, Senior Trader Ron Happell explains the risk management frameworks, hedging strategies, and precise pull-through rate calculations that protect lenders from market and fallout risk while driving higher margins. "Factors like inconsistent pull-through, renegotiations, and other issues, what we call 'leakage', can reduce the pickup over best efforts," describes Happell. This post also covers the differences between best efforts and mandatory delivery, how to hedge with TBAs, and the operational adjustments needed for success. Read the practical guide for lenders evaluating the move to mandatory delivery as part of your strategic risk management plan.

Rates rallied and "sell America" trades unwound after President Trump’s speech in Davos, which was scant on actual details, but eased some earlier tensions (read: today’s market movement is anyone’s guess). The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.25 percent, the 5-year yield dropped to 3.82 percent, and the 2-year was mostly unchanged, narrowing the gap between short-term and long-term Treasury rates…a sign that investors were more willing to buy longer-dated bonds. Mortgage-backed securities also rose in price, especially the bonds most commonly tied to new home loans, which benefited the most from the rate move. One caveat is that trading activity slowed down, suggesting some investors stepped to the sidelines even as prices improved. The U.S. Treasury reopened $13 billion in 20-year bonds to good demand, seeing some additional buying ahead of the close after President Trump said that he has agreed on a framework for a security deal involving Greenland and the entire Arctic region with the secretary general of NATO.

Alongside events in Davos, markets are closely watching the Supreme Court for signals on Trump’s tariff authority and Fed independence, with rulings expected at “judicial speed” rather than the White House’s rapid policy cadence, reinforcing near-term headline risk. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has spent much of 2025 allowing President Trump to assert greater control over independent agencies, but it signaled clear hesitation about extending that logic to the Federal Reserve. During oral arguments, even Trump-appointed justices warned that firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook could undermine the Fed’s independence and destabilize financial markets. And speaking of the Fed, with little impactful economic data ahead and inflation still drifting toward the Fed’s target, further curve steepening is favored. My trader friends would remind us that “resistance near 72–75 basis points in 2s/10s spread could cap progress unless broken decisively, leaving investor conviction constrained until greater political and legal clarity emerges.”

On the data front, construction spending edged down 0.6 percent in September before rebounding 0.5 percent in October, leaving overall activity largely flat since August, with private residential improvements driving much of the October gain. While some segments like data centers, power, transportation, and public works outperformed, most categories declined, reflecting the ongoing drag from high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Year-over-year, total construction spending was down 1.0 percent, and private outlays suggest continued near-term weakness in residential and structures investment, even as the Fed’s rate cuts provide some support for building activity. Homebuilder sentiment remains weak despite slightly lower mortgage rates, with the NAHB index falling to 37 in January, reflecting soft demand, low buyer traffic, and continued reliance on incentives. Structural factors (i.e., years of ultra-low rates, underbuilding, restrictive zoning, and high construction costs) have created a persistent shortage and affordability crunch, limiting near-term homebuilding and keeping existing-home supply tight.

December data (January 2026 factor date) show Ginnie Mae II 30-year aggregate speeds ticking up 3 percent to a 12.4 one-month CPR, with slower prepayments in the 5.0 percent to 6.0 percent coupons and faster speeds elsewhere, underscoring the very different dynamics of VA versus FHA loans. VA streamline refinancing continues to drive materially faster speeds than FHA, especially in 5.5 percent and higher coupons, even though those coupons make up only 30 percent of outstanding balances, making servicer behavior critical. Across coupons, Rocket/Quicken is the most consistently fast payer in both VA and FHA pools, with Planet and loanDepot also prominent in VA, while Navy Federal, PHH, and Idaho HFA frequently appear among the slowest. Viewed through the aging curve, Mr. Cooper and NewRez lead VA speeds at the front end, while Amerihome dominates FHA, reinforcing that prepayment risk is concentrated in specific servicers, coupons, and WALA buckets rather than evenly distributed across the stack.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with the previously delayed final look at Q3 GDP (+4.4 percent, as expected) and PCE reports (+2.9 percent Q/Q, as expected) for October and November, as well as weekly jobless claims (200k, about as expected). Later today brings Kansas City Fed manufacturing for January, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and Treasury announcing month-end supply sizes before auctioning $21 billion of 10-year TIPS and conducting a buyback in 10- to 20-year coupons for up to $2 billion. Before the open, Norges Bank was out with its latest monetary policy decision, keeping its policy rate unchanged at 4.00 percent. Earnings also continue from Wall Street. We begin Thursday with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.60, and the 10-year yielding 4.25 after closing Wednesday at 4.25 percent.

I’m pretty sure 99 percent of the sewing industry relies on the Royal Dansk Danish Butter Cookie tin for storage solutions.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Helping Borrowers in a Market Defined by Complexity and Change.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)