1.20.26 Wallowing Rates; American Pride Bank's Jessica Bluj on Construction Lending; Holiday Calendar

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the overall path of rates after some recent headlines swayed investor sentiment. Plus, Robbie sits down with American Pride Bank's Jessica Bluj for a discussion on One-Time Close construction-to-permanent loans versus traditional multi-close structures. And we close by inspecting the meaningful data points in this holiday-shortened week.

Thank you to Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage.

Transcript

“Rob, last year the press seemed convinced that President Trump’s tariffs would lead to inflation which would hurt mortgage rates. That proved not to be the case. Now comes word that President Trump’s quest for Greenland is a personal retaliation of him not winning the Nobel Peace Prize, and that the tariffs will, once again, drive inflation and mortgage rates higher. Is this true?” Geopolitical events can impact interest rates, but let’s hope the uncertainty and impact is minimal as it was last year. Meanwhile, originators and lenders are focused on the here and now. On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’s Exchange 2026 (February 12-13) in San Diego is intentionally focused on market analysis, innovative technology announcements, and collaborative roundtables with industry peers. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with American Pride Bank's Jessica Bluj on One-Time Close construction-to-permanent loans versus traditional multi-close structures.)

Employment; Consumer Direct Lender Wanted

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Correspondent AE Opportunity: Drive DSCR & 5-8 Unit Growth with Logan Finance. Logan Finance is expanding its Correspondent Lending channel and seeking an experienced Account Executive to help lead growth. The company’s Open Road product suite, featuring DSCR loans up to $2M and 5-8 unit financing up to $2.5M, is helping correspondent partners scale their investor lending business, and Logan needs a driven professional to bring these solutions to more lenders nationwide. The ideal candidate has 3-5 years of correspondent sales experience with 1-3 years in non-QM, proven success managing both non-delegated and strategic delegated relationships, and strong command of non-QM products, pricing strategies, and margin management. This role focuses on expanding non-delegated production, cultivating correspondent partnerships, and ensuring alignment with Logan’s quality and compliance standards. Interested candidates can email their resume to dnieves@loganfinance.com for a confidential conversation with the Managing Director of Logan’s Correspondent Division.

A large mortgage loan servicer is actively reviewing opportunities to acquire a Consumer Direct (CD) lender with agency seller approvals and at least 30 State origination licenses. In addition to maintain their existing business, the acquired lending partner would have an opportunity to manage the recapture and referral loan origination opportunities within the buyer’s servicing portfolio. The acquired lender would be expected to retain their existing leadership, sales, fulfillment, and origination technology and scale their business to accommodate the growth. Please contact David Hrobon at STRATMOR Group for a confidential discussion. 

Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders

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Digital tools are transforming how loan officers connect with borrowers, offering a seamless, mobile-first experience. With the Encompass LO Mobile App, a key component of ICE Customer Acquisition, flexibility is at your fingertips. Manage pipelines, update loan details and connect with borrowers anytime, anywhere. Explore how your team can work smarter, stay connected and build stronger borrower relationships with this powerful tool. Learn more here.

“Have you heard of the ‘Roomba Problem’? It’s when processing and underwriting teams still do excessive document ‘prep work’ just to make their automated underwriting platform function. If you’re gathering, organizing, and pre-sorting documents before decisioning, that’s not underwriting automation… it’s housekeeping. Too often, lenders waste valuable time manually tidying up before their system can even start, like cleaning the house before letting the Roomba run. At Indecomm, we combine IDXGenius | ai and DecisionGenius to deliver true end-to-end underwriting that works from start to finish. No manual workarounds. No hidden steps. Just smarter, AI-powered document and underwriting automation that saves time and improves credit decisioning. Ready to ditch the “partial solution” and experience the real deal? Join our upcoming webinar Feburary 18, ‘Solving the Roomba Problem in Underwriting,’ and discover how Genius AI by Indecomm delivers a holistic, end-to-end automated underwriting experience that eliminates prep work and enhances decisioning.”

A live webinar taking place tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET will focus on how mortgage leaders can better evaluate AI in mortgage technology as it becomes more prevalent in vendor conversations. The Executive’s Guide to Evaluating AI in Mortgage Technology features Brooke Anderson-Tompkins, Founder and CEO of Bridge AIvisory, in conversation with Patrick O’Brien, CEO of LenderLogix. The session is designed to help executives separate real AI capability from marketing claims, with practical insight into transparency, data usage, accountability, and long-term value without needing to be AI experts. If AI is influencing technology decisions this year, this is a timely opportunity to hear a clear, hype-free perspective live. Register now to save your seat.

AI isn’t a feature anymore. It’s the pace of competition. For mortgage executives, the real risk isn’t just rising SaaS costs; it’s being locked into systems that can’t evolve fast enough. Automatic Lender builds custom mortgage software designed for lenders who need control, speed, and flexibility as the market changes. We design AI-powered platforms around how your business actually operates, from point-of-sale systems built precisely to your use case, to intelligent document processing that classifies and routes files automatically, advanced knowledge assistants that surface answers from guidelines and SOPs, cognitive AI agents that analyze data and take action across the pipeline, automated AI marketing systems, and real-time compliance checks that reduce risk and audit friction. The result is lower operating cost, faster execution, and technology that becomes a competitive asset instead of a constraint. If you’re evaluating how to modernize without adding more vendors, ask us about successful projects we’ve already executed for mid-to-large lenders. Schedule a free 30-minute discovery call. Learn more here or contact nick@automaticlender.com.

Top producers aren't waiting to see how 2026 shapes up, they're taking control and shaping it themselves. In this NMP Webinar, Think Bigger. Achieve More In 2026 With The Mindset And Tools Of Top Loan Officers, James Jin, CEO and President of Mortgage Mentor at GMCC Mortgage, is joined by four top-producing originators for a fast-paced, no-fluff conversation on how elite loan officers think like CEOs, win builder and real estate agent preferred lender status, close more Jumbo loans with competitive pricing, leverage a wide array of products to serve niches like foreign national borrowers, borrowers who need no DTI options, utilize “Buy Before Sell First” programs and scale from one or two loans per month to 15–38 in 12–24 months, while using AI tools to accelerate results. Join us Thursday, January 22, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT and position your business for real growth. Register here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

FHA, VA, HFA, and government program news

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The Money Source and the Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation (HHFDC) proudly announce the launch of the Hale Kama‘āina Mortgage Program—a groundbreaking initiative to expand affordable homeownership opportunities for Hawaii residents. This innovative program is made possible through a strategic partnership with TMS serving as the Master Servicer. Together, HHFDC and TMS are committed to delivering a streamlined mortgage experience that helps local families achieve the dream of owning a home in Hawaii. By leveraging this partnership, HHFDC and TMS aim to ensure Hawaii residents have access to competitive financing options tailored to their needs—making homeownership more attainable for families statewide. For more details on eligibility and application guidelines, visit here or contact the program team directly here or call (808) 587-0578.

Effective for new locks on or after January 2, 2026, some of Newrez’s FHA Overlays have been updated. See Newrez Product Summaries and Overlay Matrix for full details.

(Speaking Newrez, Newrez issued a reminder regarding federal holiday closure on Monday, January 19, 2026, for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. As a federal holiday, Monday, January 19, 2026, must be excluded as a business day when determining the earliest date that settlement may occur from the date the consumer(s) receives the initial Closing Disclosure.)

Ginnie Mae announced that mortgage-backed securities (MBS) funded by electronic promissory notes (eNotes) will be eligible for the agency's Pools Issued for Immediate Transfer (PIIT) program, which allows approved Issuers to transfer eligible pools at issuance under the agency's Co-Issue program. Details are posted in this Press Release.

PHH Mortgage announced expanded Credit Report requirements for FHA Streamline Refinances and VA IRRRL products. Goto the company library to view the announcement.

FHA’s MMI Fund had a capital ratio of 11.47 percent as of last September 30th, or $188.8 billion. Is this enough to cover losses from the $1.65 trillion in FHA mortgages outstanding? Despite an elevated delinquency ratio on FHA loans, it’s probably way more than is needed. Congress has mandated that the capital ratio for the FHA insurance fund must exceed 2 percent, and it has done so for 11 consecutive years. Because the fund has so much more capital than the required 2 percent, doesn’t this argue or FHA lowering its 1.75 percent premium, making home buying more affordable?

Changes in the FHA waterfall, years of procrastination and the impact from state housing finance agencies' down payment assistance programs are converging to disrupt loss mitigation options and fuel foreclosures. Donna Scmidt, President and CEO of DLS Servicing, weighed in with comments about servicers' struggles with the new rules and how they can take steps to stay ahead of the game.

“The new FHA waterfall could prove challenging for borrowers and servicers alike. Over the past five years, the spread between the delinquency rate on FHA-insured loans and all mortgages has grown significantly. Meanwhile, partial claims have become unsustainable, with the share of borrowers who have had a previous partial claim rising from 5 percent in 2020 to 50 percent in 2025. Home equity for FHA borrowers has diminished as well, and those who relied on down payment assistance from state housing finance agencies to purchase their homes are in an even weaker equity position. 

“Under these conditions, the new FHA waterfall may leave a larger share of distressed borrowers unable to qualify for additional loss mitigation or partial claims. With less equity to work with, foreclosures are likely to increase. Servicers can get ahead of this by focusing on engaging borrowers early: on the 5th day of delinquency for unseasoned loans and the 10th for seasoned loans. Just as important is giving borrowers clear, complete information so they can compare options and make sound decisions. Otherwise, delinquencies are more likely to repeat and drag on, driving up costs for servicers.”

Webinars today and tomorrow

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If your borrowers are stuck behind a home sale contingency or running into DTI limits, join Flyhomes’ live webinar tomorrow, Jan 21, to learn how Buy Before You Sell with the Flyhomes Guaranteed Backup Contract can help them reduce DTI and qualify for up to 50 percent more. With this solution, borrowers can buy before they sell and make stronger offers without home sale contingencies. This nationwide solution requires no loan, offers a competitive tiered flat fee, and can be ready in 24 hours. Save your spot for the webinar now or book a call today to learn more. Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers over the past 10 years, and LOs using this program close an average of 1.2 more loans per month.

Join NAMB and Michelle Berman for an informative webinar, “Motivation Comes From Movement: The Proven Social Prospecting Strategy That Outperforms Trends, Gadgets, and Video Volume”, today, January 20, at 2:00 pm ET.

What is the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) markets in the first quarter of 2026? Join SitusAMC “ValTrends First Look” webinar on January 20, at 2pm ET., hosted by Senior Director of SitusAMC Insights Peter Muoio, PhD and Vice President of SitusAMC Insights Jennifer Rasmussen, PhD.  

“Intro to USDA Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loans” offers virtual training: This training is available at no cost to all USDA Single Family Housing Guaranteed lending partners tomorrow, January 21, from 2-3PM ET.

Join MBA-NJ on Wednesday, January 21, 11:00 AM - 11:30 AM PST for its monthly educational webinar, Mortgage Leads in Transition: What Lenders and Marketers Must Know.

Join a webinar discussion on the economy and its impact on the mortgage industry featuring Leonard Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, and hosted by Steve Kolker, AmeriHome's Managing Director and Chief Production Officer on Wednesday, January 21 at 10 am PST. 

On January 21, 2-3 ET, MBA of Eastern PA is providing a high-impact webinar based on Pat Sherlock’s Mortgage Manager Mastery, the go-to blueprint for building elite, high-performance mortgage sales teams. We’ll break down the leadership systems and daily disciplines that top managers use to attract talent, elevate performance, and run consistently profitable branches.

Capital markets: rates drift higher without conviction

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The Treasury market currently reflects cautious optimism about the broader economy. Strong risk asset performance, resilient growth expectations, and early GDP estimates pointing to a solid expansion have kept investor sentiment constructive. With little in the way of near-term economic data likely to force a rethink, attention has shifted to external risks: geopolitical tensions, White House headlines, and an eventual Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. For now, these factors represent potential volatility rather than a clear catalyst.

That lack of conviction is evident in positioning, as early-year steepening trades quickly unwound and left investors waiting for clearer direction. Technical signals suggest consolidation rather than a decisive breakout, while equity markets remain a crucial variable: continued gains in stocks are supporting consumer spending and complicating the Fed’s path back to its inflation target, but they also raise the risk that a future equity selloff could be more persistent. With the Fed unlikely to respond quickly to equity-driven weakness, such a scenario could introduce a level of volatility that markets have not had to contend with recently.

This holiday-shortened week includes updates on construction spending, pending home sales, GDP, (delayed) PCE, and Michigan sentiment. Treasury activity will be highlighted by auctions of $13 billion reopened 20-year bonds and $22 billion new 10-year TIPS. No Fed speakers are currently scheduled ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, though Norges Bank and the Bank of Japan will be out with their latest decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively (no changes expected for either). Classes C and D 48-hour notifications for MBS are tomorrow and Friday. Additionally, earnings continue from Wall Street. Today’s economic calendar is already underway with Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing for January. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices worse than Friday’s close by .125-.250, depending on coupon and maturity, the 2-year yielding 3.59, and the 10-year yielding 4.28 after closing last week at 4.23 percent.

An old cowboy walks into the barbershop for a shave and a haircut, and he tells the barber he can’t get all his whiskers off because his cheeks are wrinkled from age.

The barber gets a little wooden ball from a cup on the shelf and tells the old cowboy to put it inside his cheek to spread out the skin.

When he’s finished, the old cowboy tells the barber that was the cleanest shave he’s had in years. But he wanted to know what would have happened if he had swallowed that little ball.

The barber replied, “Just bring it back in a couple of days like everyone else does”.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Helping Borrowers in a Market Defined by Complexity and Change.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)