1.16.26 Golden Handcuf Release; FINOFR’s Keith Kelly on Rate Resets; Economic Trends

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the ways we are starting to see the "lock-in effect" meaningfully shift for borrowers. Plus, Robbie sits down with FINOFR’s Keith Kelly for a discussion on how to take the friction out of the loan process for everyone. And we close by examining trends in economic data that will better help you keep borrowers informed as to what's going on.

Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. 

Transcript

How are we halfway done with January already? Wasn’t it just New Year’s? Some lenders slow down in the winter, but I am hearing reports of great Decembers and Januarys. Wanna fire up your sales team? Here’s an article: “The golden handcuffs are slipping in the U.S. housing market.” As industry vets knew they would eventually, borrowers with “once-in-a-lifetime” rates are refinancing, or selling houses with those mortgages on them. There is a lot of news and change, both locally and globally, for originators to follow, and the current STRATMOR Group blog is titled, “Helping Borrowers in a Market Defined by Complexity and Change.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Figure. Take advantage of Figure’s technology and products like its fixed HELOC, DSCR loan, piggyback loan, and direct debt paydown, helping you serve more of your existing network and expand into new markets. Hear an interview with FINOFR’s Keith Kelly on how to take the friction out of the loan process for everyone.)

Employment

_________________________________________________

“We’re hiring a Senior Underwriter with DE endorsement to play a key role in scaling a modern, AI-native mortgage platform: Help build the next-gen mortgage platform. This is not a traditional underwriting seat. You’ll be working inside a platform that is actively replacing legacy workflows with automation, intelligent document mapping, and agent-assisted decisioning while maintaining strong credit discipline and regulatory rigor. You’ll underwrite FHA, VA, and conventional loans with a focus on quality, speed, and consistency, serve as a senior credit voice as volume scales across correspondent, delegated, and TPO channels, partner with product, ops, and compliance teams to refine underwriting workflows and exception handling, and help shape how underwriting works in an AI-enabled environment…not just execute today’s process. We want an underwriter with an active DE endorsement with deep FHA underwriting experience, a strong background across agency and government products, and be comfortable operating in high-growth, evolving environments. See competitive compensation and long-term growth upside. If you’re an experienced DE underwriter who wants to help shape where mortgage operations are going, not where they’ve been, we’d love to talk. Contact Luca Dahlhausen.

LeaderOne Financial Launches Brand Refresh to Support Modern Homebuyers and Future Growth! LeaderOne Financial, a nationally recognized mortgage lender with more than 30 years of experience, today announced an exciting brand refresh that reflects the company’s continued growth, modern vision, and people-first approach to lending. Founded in 1992, LeaderOne has grown into a trusted nationwide partner for homebuyers and real estate professionals. The refreshed brand builds on that strong foundation while reinforcing the company’s core values; People First, Empowered Collaboration, Accountability, and Continuous Innovation, and introducing a modernized visual identity and refined messaging. “Our brand has always stood for leadership in service, trust, and expertise,” said Randell Gillespie, President of LeaderOne Financial. “This refresh reflects who we are today and supports the future we’re building for our clients, partners, and teams.” The update also includes enhanced marketing, technology, and client-experience tools designed to simplify the homebuying journey and expand access to homeownership nationwide. To learn more, visit LeaderOneFinancial.com.

Evergreen Home Loans is pleased to welcome Daniel Richards as Chief Strategic Officer. Daniel brings a proven track record of driving growth, optimizing operations, and integrating technology solutions that improve both efficiency and customer experience. In his new role, he will help guide Evergreen’s long-term strategy, supporting our executive team, loan officers, and operations leaders as we expand into new markets and modernize our lending platform. Daniel’s expertise in data, analytics, and AI-powered tools will help Evergreen sharpen decision-making, streamline workflows, and deliver even more value to borrowers and business partners. His leadership will play a key role in positioning Evergreen for sustainable, scalable growth in the years ahead. Learn more about how Evergreen helps their loan officers succeed by visiting discoverehl.com. 

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders

_________________________________________________

After years of elevated mortgage rates, tight inventory, and stretched affordability, the housing market is beginning to show signs of a thaw. In 2026, the question isn’t whether conditions are improving. It’s how quickly momentum will build and what will sustain it. Join First American Data & Analytics for a 2026 Housing Market Outlook webinar featuring Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American. We’ll break down the data shaping today’s market, from mortgage rates and Fed policy to affordability, labor market fundamentals, demographic demand, new-home construction, and regional performance, and highlight the signals pointing to a measured, gradual recovery. If the market is shifting from freeze to forward motion, this webinar is your roadmap for what comes next. Register now to gain the insights you need to navigate a year defined by progress, not a breakout, in 2026.

FINOFR has reset over $1.33 billion in mortgages in the past 120 days! The Fed’s three recent 0.25% rate cuts in September, October, and December 10th, have driven a surge in Reset Mortgage activity. FINOFR completed 1139 reset transactions with zero processing, underwriting, closing, or compliance time required. No added staff. No operational strain. Total volume reached $1,339,299,735 with an average loan size of $1.1M. With a consumer completion time under 90 seconds, this simple process is why FINOFR maintains a 90 percent mortgage retention rate. Volume or runoff shouldn’t break your business model. We built FINOFR so it doesn’t. Learn more at FINOFR.com or contact Foster Kelly.

During STRATMOR’s recent Advisory Angle Panel Discussion, a key theme emerged around how Independent Mortgage Bankers can improve profitability and resilience in a challenging market. Panelists emphasized that IMBs should adopt the same playbooks used by mega-lenders, most notably by retaining servicing in-house and diversifying revenue streams. Importantly, the panel noted that lenders do not need to be market movers or mega-sized institutions to successfully implement these strategies. The discussion highlighted that IMBs that retained servicing were approximately 50 percent more profitable in 2025 than those that did not. Retaining servicing creates recurring revenue, strengthens borrower relationships, and helps offset market volatility. As margins remain compressed, these strategies are increasingly viewed as essential to long-term sustainability. Technology plays a key role, and MortgageFlex can help IMCs execute these strategies efficiently without adding unnecessary complexity. We look forward to continuing the conversation: connect at with John McCrea at IMB 2026 in Amelia Island.

Need a clear, concise breakdown of the legislation and regulatory actions that shaped the mortgage industry in 2025 and what lenders and servicers should prepare for in 2026? Read Covius Compliance Solutions’ annual Regulatory and Legislative Updates Report. This in-depth review covers evolving compliance expectations, the CFPB’s modified role, new loss mitigation requirements, growing state-level influence and key litigation outcomes, plus a forward-looking outlook to help you navigate risk and opportunity in 2026. Read and download your copy today.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

In-person events to plan for in February and March

_________________________________________________

A good place for longer term conference planning and for organizers to post their events is to start is here for in-person events in the future. Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors,” and each event and conference has a different flavor and attendee base.

Join MBA of Eastern PA, January 21, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM (EST), for a high-impact webinar based on Pat Sherlock’s Mortgage Manager Mastery, the go-to blueprint for building elite, high-performance mortgage sales teams. We’ll break down the leadership systems and daily disciplines that top managers use to attract talent, elevate performance, and run consistently profitable branches.

The MBA is putting on the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference on Amelia Island, Florida February 2-4. “An intimate gathering designed exclusively for IMB leaders from companies of all sizes and business models.”

MCT’s Exchange 2026, MCT’s client conference, is taking place February 12-13 at the InterContinental San Diego. As the Currents of Capital reshape the secondary mortgage market, this premier client conference will help attendees harness the changing flow of opportunity. Immerse in expert market analysis, innovative technology announcements, and collaborative roundtables with industry peers. Attendees can also explore learning tracks tailored to today’s evolving landscape, and connect with lenders, investors, and partners from across the country. From insightful sessions to vibrant networking events, MCT Exchange 2026 is where the future of mortgage capital markets converges.

The MBA has its Servicing Solutions conference in Dallas February 16-19.

The NMLS 2026 is in Orlando, FL and is February 17-20.

The TMBA offers up the Southern Secondary Market Conference, February 22–24, at the Westin Houston Memorial City in Houston, TX.

The Optimal Blue Summit is taking place February 23 – 25 at Talking Stick Resort and Conference Center in Scottsdale, Arizona. From expert-led sessions and hands-on tech showcases to curated networking with capital markets leaders, every element of the Summit is designed to give attendees a competitive edge and help them maximize profitability. Early bird registration is available for just $199. Secure your ticket today and be first to experience an event where proven mortgage expertise meets modern innovation to shape what's next.

Join NMBA, February 24–26, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas for ELEVATE, the ultimate conference for brokers and mortgage professionals ready to explore the world of private lending. This isn’t your average mortgage event. ELEVATE brings together brokers, private lenders, and investors for three days of education, networking, and inspiration all focused on helping you grow from commissions to capital.

The Northeast Mortgage Summit in Mashantucket, CT, will be February 25-26.

March 1-4, in Ft. Lauderdale, we have the Lenders One Summit.

In Illinois, registration information will be available soon for the IMBA Spring Mortgage Lending Conference on Wednesday, March 11, 10am - 4:30pm. Confirmed speaker, Joel Kan, Deputy Chief Economist Mortgage Bankers Association, will discuss economic/mortgage market update. Also, concurrent interactive breakout sessions for Sales and Ops will be offered.

Registration for ICE Experience 2026 is now open for ICE clients. Join thousands of mortgage professionals for three days of learning, networking and innovation at the Wynn Las Vegas, March 16–18, 2026. Register now to take advantage of the lowest rates of the year: super early bird pricing is just $995, and if you bring a team of four or more, the rate drops to $745 per person. This year features a new format for pre-conference training with smaller classes and more hands-on learning, plus four focused session tracks designed around ICE solutions and the same high-quality networking events you love. ICE Experience is where ideas spark, connections grow and innovation happens here.

MBA of New Jersey is already looking ahead to one of their favorite things, bringing the industry together in one place. Conversation. Ideas. Connection. All of it. Conference registration is officially open for MBA of New Jersey’s 42nd Annual Regional Conference, March 22-24 at Ocean Casino & Resort.

Capital markets: rates drift a little higher

_________________________________________________

U.S. Treasuries were mixed Thursday, with the front end weaker and the long bond stronger, pushing the 2-year yield to its highest close since early December while the 30-year posted a third straight gain. Stronger-than-expected U.S. data, including lower jobless claims and improving regional manufacturing surveys, pressured shorter maturities, while the long bond outperformed and ended near a five-week low in yield. Separately, Citigroup reported rising short-term credit delinquencies, signaling some emerging consumer stress that markets will be watching closely.

Rate cut odds continue to fade. With a cut in January off the table at this point, the market is pricing in a 25 percent probability of a March cut even as futures indicate more than 50-basis points of rate cuts this year. That potentially infers that normalizing rates has simply been moved further into the year. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson spoke yesterday in favor of holding the fed funds rate range steady. Repeat after me, “meeting-by-meeting basis.” The latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac showed a decline in rates following late last week’s social media post from President Trump instructing the GSEs to buy $200 billion MBS. For the week ending January 15, the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates declined 10-basis points and 8-basis points to 6.06 percent and 5.38 percent, respectively, the lowest for each since September 2022 and October 2024. From a year ago, rates are 98-basis points and 89-basis points lower.

Industrial production and capacity utilization for December kick off today’s economic calendar, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index for January, Treasury releasing the primary dealer meeting agenda at noon ahead of the quarterly refunding statement, and remarks from three Fed speakers (Boston President Collins, Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, and Vice Chair Jefferson. We begin Friday with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.58, and the 10-year yielding 4.19 after closing yesterday at 4.16 percent.

I just had this great idea for a fabulous new technology! I'm calling it CASH. Here are some of its features:

Transactions are unhackable. No need to worry about who stole your credit card info every time a retailer suffers a security breach.

Transactions not stored in any bank's database forever, to be sold to unknown third parties at any time in the future, for any purpose.

No middleman taking a percentage of every transaction, cleverly hidden from the consumer, generating a 2% drain on the economy.

Does not rely on any network or other technology… works even when the internet goes down.

Always know exactly how much money you have and how much you are spending, and never be in debt.

Fast as pulling a bill out of your wallet. Never wait for an overloaded network.

And, obviously, cash is private and anonymous. Your transactions are nobody's business but yours and your counterparty's.

I'm looking for seed funding for this idea. Please send me… you know what.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Helping Borrowers in a Market Defined by Complexity and Change.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

qoɹ

(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)