12.30.25 Generational Demographics; Next Belt Strategies' Jeremy Potter on Consulting; Last Full Trading Day

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the trends across generations when it comes to home purchases. Plus, Robbie sits down with Next Belt Strategies' Jeremy Potter for a discussion on when companies should use external labor, why LinkedIn is an intellectual isolation ward, and final thoughts from the year that was in mortgage. And we close by examining market sentiment on the last full trading day of 2025.

Transcript

How many people live in the United States, and the world? Here you go, as accurately as you’re going to see anywhere. Loan originators are acutely aware of demographics (“know your borrower,” right?). Naming generations is relatively recent, and then-People Magazine Editor Landon Y. Jones coined the term Baby Boomer. (He died last year.) The oldest Baby Boomers turn 80 in 2026. By the end of this decade, all baby boomers will be 65 and older, and the number of people 80 and over will double in 20 years. Do you have loan products for them? Without any immigration, the U.S. population will start shrinking in five years. VP JD Vance is among those pushing for an increase in fertility. Vance has suggested giving parents more voting power, according to their numbers of children, or giving low-interest loans to married parents and tax exemptions to women who have four children or more. (Recall that last year JD Vance recommended giving votes to all children in this country but let's give control over those votes to the parents of those children.) All of these trends and statements do, or could, impact every residential lender. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Did you know lenders lose 80 percent of refi recapture? The Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. They're so confident in the ROI they let you try before you buy. Contact them for a demo. Hear an interview with consultant Jeremy Potter on when companies should use external labor, why LinkedIn is an intellectual isolation ward, and final thoughts from the year that was in mortgage.)

Employment and retirements

_________________________________________________

Deephaven Mortgage, a leader in the non-QM space, is expanding and hiring across multiple positions. This is your opportunity to elevate your career while working with a team that values expertise, collaboration, and growth. Open roles include Wholesale Account Executives, Account Managers, Mortgage Closers, Post Closing Specialists, VP of Product, Senior Underwriter, Senior Data Developer. If you’re ready to join a company with a strong culture, great people, and a commitment to excellence, Deephaven is the place to be! Apply here. If you are interested in becoming an approved customer, reach out to Tom Davis.

Open executive positions: A fast-growing, highly reputable SAAS company with a focus on the mortgage industry seeks to grow its executive team. Several open positions including COO, Product Management, Developers, and Corporate Analytics. This is a significant opportunity to make an impact within the mortgage finance industry. Reply confidentially to Anjelica Nixt who will forward your note to the principal.

As noted in this Commentary a few months ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Chief Operating Officer Marcia Davies is retiring tomorrow.

Paul Muolo, Editor in Chief at Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, has also retired.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Lender and broker services, products, and software

_________________________________________________

In an open letter reflecting on a landmark 2025, Polly Founder and CEO Adam Carmel shares a powerful message of gratitude and strategic evolution. The company has spent the past year leading the market in enterprise innovation and Generative AI, continuing to demonstrate that the era of stagnant, legacy tech is over. This is more than a milestone report; it's a call to action for an industry at a crossroads. Carmel reflects on the profound impact and shared success achieved alongside Polly's customer partners and looks ahead to a 2026 centered on intentional innovation and new product frontiers. Whether you're a long-time partner or industry observer, this letter offers a transparent look at the future of capital markets technology. Read the full open letter to explore Polly's 2025 milestones and their bold vision for the year ahead.

(A big thank you to Polly who sponsors the monthly Capital Markets Wrap, a discussion of current topics impacting pricing and execution in the secondary markets.)

“How a lender performs in its Capital Markets Department makes a huge difference in overall profitability. Loan sales, hedging, pricing strategies, investor partnerships, post-closing speeds, warehouse turn-times, LOS functionality, accurate and up-to-date data in easily accessible formats… These all play a major role in determining your competitiveness in the marketplace. Mortgage Trading Analytics would like the opportunity to be your second set of eyes on how well you’re doing, how you could improve, and show you how our specialized analytics, unique technology, and extensive experience can deliver you outsized gains while saving you money and streamlining your processes. We’ve learned that even the most experienced Lenders have inefficiencies and we can help you identify and improve those areas. We are competitively priced, service oriented, and guarantee we will find ways for you to make or save money or you pay nothing. Contact John Sheadel (404.825.1560) to learn more!”

MortgageFlex’s latest Servicing release delivers a significant enhancement to special servicing management by introducing powerful, compliance, escalation-driven workflow queues that elevate both efficiency and accuracy. This major upgrade adopts a modern, work-queue–centric approach designed to address one of the industry’s most persistent challenges: the rapid increase in customer service escalations. With this release, work queues now underpin every system-level function, allowing clients to configure and maintain their own escalation templates tailored to organizational processes. Tasks are automatically routed and assigned based on user roles, ensuring that work is prioritized appropriately, consistently tracked, and completed without operational bottlenecks. This structured and transparent workflow framework not only reduces compliance risk but also strengthens a servicer’s ability to respond quickly and effectively to borrower needs. Additionally, the platform now provides complete loan-level visibility through an instantly accessible notification tracking tree, giving servicing teams immediate insight into all activities and communication. Check here for a sneak peek…

MCT®️ and FICO have announced their expanded collaboration to integrate the predictive FICO®️ Score 10T across MSR valuation, risk models, and investor price discovery in MCT’s software suite. Following the successful initial rollout, which embedded Score 10T into bid tapes within MCT Marketplace®️, the enhanced integration broadens how MSR portfolio managers and investors can apply credit intelligence in their analysis. As Paul Yarbrough, Head of CSG and Data & Analytics at MCT, noted, “We’ve heard from adopters on both the buy and sell sides… that FICO Score 10T is delivering more clarity into asset quality while identifying unique opportunities for improved execution.” Score 10T is now embedded within MSRlive!®️ to strengthen credit-driven valuation insights and will also enhance seller-side decisioning within Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) by modeling differences between traditional scores and Score 10T. This collaboration sets a new benchmark for transparency, valuation accuracy, and analytics across MCT Marketplace, MCTlive!®️, MSRlive!, and EBX. Mortgage lenders or investors interested in integrating FICO®️Score 10T into their secondary marketing operations are encouraged to schedule a consultation.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Lenders who want to know about people in their 30s and 40s

_________________________________________________

Mortgages With Millennials is today 1pm ET: For the final Mortgages With Millennials of 2025, Kristin and Robbie finally confront their cultural obsolescence, as millennials are now officially “old,” cringey online, and sidelined despite still being professionally and physically relevant. The episode will explore how millennials should age into power with curiosity, empathy, and authenticity, using their influence to adapt, support those coming up behind them, and avoid repeating boomer mistakes.

How LOs should view the year via trends

_________________________________________________

Recently I received an “LO VieauxPoint” note from Brian Vieaux, President of MISMO, noting lessons from 2025. “2025 wasn’t just another tough year in mortgage. It was a revealing one. Not because rates suddenly cooperated or volume came rushing back, but because the gap between who was evolving and who was waiting became impossible to ignore.

“This was the year the middle disappeared. You were either adapting, learning, experimenting, and showing up differently, or you were hoping the old playbook would somehow start working again. Hope didn’t win many arguments in 2025, and AI didn’t replace loan officers this year… But it absolutely exposed them.

“Consumers showed up more informed, more confident, and often misinformed in very specific ways. The professionals who could interpret, coach, and bring clarity thrived. Those who only quoted rates felt commoditized fast. The job didn’t go away… it changed.

“Another quiet shift mattered just as much: The industry finally acknowledged that most consumers aren’t ready when they first raise their hand. They’re thinking about thinking about buying, and in prior cycles we lost those people to CRMs and good intentions. But in 2025, the winners built systems left of point of sale.

“Education replaced urgency. Preparation replaced pressure. Engagement replaced chasing. Financial literacy stopped being a ‘nice to have.’ Personal brand stopped being optional.
And technology became the amplifier of humanity, not the replacement for it.

“What didn’t work anymore? Waiting on rates, relying on one referral source, assuming your database would magically wake up, ignoring visibility. What did work? Clear guidance, early engagement, consistently showing up, and using tech to free up time for trust-building conversations.

“After more than three decades in this industry, here’s my biggest takeaway: Every cycle exposes what you were building before the cycle hit. A pipeline… or a platform. Transactions… or relationships. Volume… or value. 2025 didn’t choose for us. It revealed our choices.”

Brian concluded with, “You can read the full Vieaux from the Street: 2025 Year in Review blog here. The opportunity ahead is still massive. But it belongs to those willing to evolve on purpose. #VieauxPoint. Thank you, Brian!

Capital markets: the anatomy of a non-QM securitization

_________________________________________________

People wonder what happens to non-Agency, or non-QM, loans that they produce. Well, J.P. Morgan is bringing $587.6 million of non-qualified mortgage exposure to market through the J.P. Morgan Mortgage Trust 2025-NQM5, a residential MBS deal backed by 1,611 first-lien loans diversified across fixed and adjustable rates and prime and non-prime borrowers. About 44.5 percent of the pool is designated non-QM and roughly half of the loans were originated for investor business purposes, with only 19.6 percent underwritten using full documentation, though borrower credit quality remains solid, as nearly 73 percent have FICO scores of 720 or higher and the weighted-average CLTV is 74 percent. The deal, led by J.P. Morgan Securities and expected to close December 30, will issue roughly 11 tranches of Class A, M, and B notes with a May 2066 final maturity, using a modified-sequential pay structure. Maxex Clearing and United Wholesale Mortgage are the top originators, with Shellpoint Mortgage and Selene Finance serving the loans, and rating agencies Fitch and Morningstar DBRS assigning ratings ranging from AAA on senior tranches to single-B on the most subordinate notes.

As many market participants remain on year-end holiday vacations, the current narrative revolves around rising unemployment, sticky inflation, the affordability crisis, fears about Fed independence, government data validity, and an AI or stock market bubble. On the bright side, the labor market is cooling in an orderly way, not collapsing, disinflation is broadening, corporate balance sheets are strong, productivity is quietly improving, global growth is less fragile than feared, capital markets are functioning normally, and negative sentiment is already largely priced in.

Yesterday saw a quiet trade in markets which kept yields and the MBS basis narrowly rangebound. We learned that pending home sales rose 3.3 percent month-over-month in November, the best performance in three years and well above consensus 0.9 percent expectations. That comes on the heels of increasing a revised 2.4 percent, from 1.9 percent in September. More inventory is attracting more buyers to the market.

This final full trading day of 2025 brings us this week’s highlight: the minutes from the FOMC’s December 9-10 meeting. Other releases include October home price indexes from FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller, Dallas Fed Texas services, and some short-duration Treasury auctions. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices about unchanged from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.46, and the 10-year yielding 4.14 after closing yesterday at 4.12 percent.

Dear God -
My prayer for 2026 is for a fat bank account & a thin body.

Please don't mix these up like you did last year.
AMEN!