12.24.25 Christmas Early Closing; Rob Chrisman on Option Weighting; Rates Tread Water

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the state of the industry as we approach the Christmas Day holiday. Plus, Robbie sits down with Rob Chrisman for a discussion on the holiday spirit, industry seasonality, financial modeling, inflation, and tales from Christmas past. And we close by looking at the why rates are treading water ahead of the new year.

Thanks to Gallus Insight, which is transforming employee analytics into actionable insights. Gallus’ ROI tool for learning and development activity is the most powerful in the world, and also the easiest to use.

Transcript

We’re coming up on some time off, with bank wiring not changing schedules despite President Trump giving federal workers more time off. Lenders and vendors like their time off. The Christmas and New Year’s Day holidays are considered to be federal holidays in many countries… but not all countries. In fact, those days are not ones that most people have off worldwide! There are 5.5 billion people who live in a country where December 25 is a public holiday, and 4.3 billion people who live in a country where January 1 is. There are a number of other holidays where lots of the world (3 billion or more) get off, including Good Friday, Eid al-Fitr, Eid al-Adha, and the Prophet’s Birthday. Your borrowers may observe them. There are also a few countries large enough that their regional celebrations make a noticeable dent, such as October 2 in India or the Lunar New Year in many East Asian countries. However, one day beats all of them. That would be May 1, which is Labor Day for 5.8 billion people and is the biggest day off around the world, even if Canada and the U.S. celebrate it in September, and the U.K. just forgoes it entirely. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Gallus Insight, which is transforming employee analytics into actionable insights. Gallus’ ROI tool for learning and development activity is the most powerful in the world, and also the easiest to use. Hear a talk between Robbie and me on the holiday spirit, industry seasonality, financial modeling, inflation, and tales from Christmas past.)

Employment, lenders wanted

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STRATMOR Group is actively representing lenders and investors that are interested in joining forces with select Wholesale origination companies. These deep-pocket buyers bring an array of best-in-class benefits, including proprietary technology, unique products, a “seat at the table” org structure, and capital ready for growth and expansion. Reach out to David Hrobon at STRATMOR to confidentially talk through the opportunities to see if there is a fit for you.

“Tired of watching your hard-earned customer relationships get sold off, only to have an investor compete with you for the repeat and referral business you built? Does it bother you that this investor’s source of competitive advantage comes from cutting you out of the next transaction? At SWBC Mortgage, that doesn’t happen. We retain servicing for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, and USDA loans, a commitment we’ve upheld since before the pandemic. We’re working with you, not against you. Our loan officers don’t just build pipelines; they build lasting relationships and long-term success. With strong servicing retention, award-winning programs, and leadership invested in your growth, we provide the support and stability you need to thrive in 2026. Ready for a career move that truly matters? Contact Scott Brown, EVP – National Retail Sales, at (615) 260-2382.”

Acra Lending has appointed 30+ year vet Suzy Lindblom as Managing Director, National Operations. Suzy will oversee Wholesale and Correspondent Lending Operations as well as Underwriting. Congratulations!

Lender and broker services, products, and software

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“What would 50-100 bps more per jumbo loan mean for your team? Winning in today’s market takes more than price, but having a competitive bid still matters. Give your loan officers a strong start to 2026 with access to aggressive Jumbo pricing from an insurance-capital buyer available to many originators exclusively through the MAXEX platform. We’re seeing pricing come in 50–100 bps better than what many originators have access to today. Leverage your existing AUS workflow while tapping into best-execution pricing from multiple Jumbo investors, all through a single MAXEX contract. Already approved on MAXEX? Even better: This buyer is available to you at no additional cost. Want to stay competitive in 2026? See how MAXEX can help and connect with a representative to get started. Join our monthly webinars to stay up to date with all the latest from MAXEX.”

“Your customers’ experience, loan portfolio health, and subservicer performance demand visibility and certainty. You can’t just trust that your needs are met, you must verify as well. That’s why you need a partner committed to full transparency. At Servbank, what you see is what you get. Servbank provides 24/7 access to your entire portfolio through our award-winning SIME technology. You get real-time, on-demand data in your preferred format with a single click. Built for clarity and ease of use, SIME eliminates outdated systems and unnecessary complexity. Servbank makes it simple to verify while also exceeding expectations… Your satisfaction is our priority. At Servbank, we’re committed to openness, honesty, and above all our compliance stamp of approval. Click here to partner with the nation’s premier bank subservicer.”

A free eGuide making the rounds among lenders right now tackles one of the more common questions in mortgage tech: how to evaluate all the new “AI powered” POS claims showing up in the market. LenderLogix recently published The Mortgage Lender’s Guide to Evaluating AI Powered POS Solutions, and it has been getting passed around by teams reviewing POS options and vendor roadmaps. The eGuide walks through what lenders should be looking for in an AI POS, along with common red flags and a lender friendly checklist you can use during demos or vendor reviews. For those looking for a clearer way to sort through AI claims before sitting through vendor pitches, the guide can be accessed here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Ways of thinking about current mortgage topics

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Underwriting is often viewed as a rules-based function. But in reality, it sits at the intersection of data, risk, and human narrative. Drawing on experience across credit unions, IMBs, banks, and non-QM lending, Magda DeMauro explains why flexibility, education, and empathy are becoming more, not less, essential as housing types diversify and AI reshapes workflows. While automation will drive speed and consistency, sustainable homeownership still depends on underwriters who can interpret context, assess marketability, and balance innovation with discipline: Thought Leadership on Underwriting.

As mortgage executives plan for a market that refuses to settle, Ira Selwin explains why success depends on resilient operating models rather than directional bets on rates. From hedging discipline and loan limit mechanics to the growing role of home equity lending and servicing driven retention, the piece outlines how leaders can balance macro uncertainty with precise execution. The conclusion is clear. The market does not reward guessing. It rewards structure, discipline, and readiness for whatever direction comes next: Thought Leadership on Operating Models.

Conventional conforming news via F&F doesn’t cease

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Yes, large investors and wholesale buyers follow agency guidelines. They’ve felt market share pressure from the non-QM and non-Agency sector in terms of prices and guidelines. Yet the market still follows Freddie and Fannie.

By the way, a big difference between “Agency” loans and “non-Agency” loans, like non-QM are the g-fee hits that the FHFA collects through Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Most of those fees go toward Agency profits although other “stuff” benefits from the fees, like some transportation tax from many years ago that is covered by gfees. For an update on those fees. Check out https://www.fhfa.gov/document/gfee-report-2024.pdf or https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/single-family-guarantee-fees/2024.

Learn what servicers need to know to confidently service the new HomeStyle® Refresh mortgage, which expands renovation financing to support a wide range of home improvements. View Fannie Mae Announcement SVC-2025-07.

Prevent defects, reduce repurchase requests, and support financial resiliency by monitoring industry trends on defect categories and repurchases. Fannie Mae Single-Family Loan Acquisition and Repurchase Trend Report aggregates information and insights to help you evaluate your loan quality results.

Freddie Mac announced that its offer to investors to exchange certain eligible Gold PCs and Giant PCs for TBA-eligible and non-TBA-eligible mirror securities will close on December 18, 2026.

Fannie Mae Servicing has new resources available to help you navigate and simplify your adoption of upcoming policy and operational changes. The most recent Lender Letter references new loss mitigation and liquidation reporting requirements.

Capital markets: treading water with an early bond market close

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The older I get, the more I’ve learned never to trust a fart; it seems like that lack of trust is now extending (not only to consumers' feelings about financial institutions, but also) to economists when presented with recently released government data. We learned yesterday that the U.S. economy grew at a robust 4.3 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, its fastest pace in two years and up from 3.8 percent previously, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exceeding nearly all survey forecasts.

The delayed report followed recent government data releases disrupted by the government shutdown, including inflation figures showing a surprise drop to a four-year low that some economists questioned (the Chrisman anecdotal index shows strain on pockets is at an all-time high…). More recent indicators were less upbeat, however, as Conference Board data showed consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in December, the longest decline since 2008, amid persistent worries over inflation and tariffs.

More timely indicators were mixed: October durable goods orders disappointed, falling 2.2 percent, with softer ex-transportation growth and slower core shipments, though core capital goods orders and shipments still beat expectations, offering some support for Q4 growth. Labor data showed cooling but still positive hiring, with ADP estimating weekly job gains of 11.5k through early December. Markets reacted modestly, but Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year climbing back toward the key 4.20 percent level following the GDP and durables releases. The U.S. Treasury followed Monday's weak 2-year note sale with a 5-year note offering that was also slightly disappointing, but record direct takedown prevented a worse outcome

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications falling 5.0 percent for the week ending December 19, with declines across both purchase (-4 percent) and refinance (-6 percent) activity, despite slightly lower mortgage rates. While applications were notably higher than a year ago (up 16 percent for purchases and 110 percent for refinances) overall volume declined in the week. The MBA expects ongoing headwinds from a softening labor market, sticky inflation, elevated housing inventory, and steady mortgage rates to continue into the new year.

We’ve also received weekly jobless claims (214k, less than expected; 1.923 million continuing). Later today brings several Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $44 billion 7-year notes, and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. For the early close ahead of Christmas, futures will settle at 1:00pm ET, followed by cash bonds at SIFMA-recommended 2:00pm ET. We begin Christmas Eve with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.53, and the 10-year yielding 4.16 after closing Tuesday at 4.17 percent. Merry Christmas!

Thanks to the 203k team at Impac (from several years ago) for this one, a take-off on “T’was the Night Before Christmas” theme.

T’was the night before Christmas and all through the dwelling,

The home needed repairs and it was very telling.

The wife and hubby had no cash to spare,

Because old St. Nick was soon to be there,

Dingy carpet and linoleum floors,

Outdated tile and holes in the doors!

Then came Santa with his reindeer posse,

Advice he did bring without sounding bossy.

“Ho ho ho…you need some home repairs,

The railing collapsed and I fell down the stairs!”

The team of reindeer was falling through the roof

With very little effort from their tiny little hooves

Hubby and wife had no money to pay,

“Do not worry folks, Get a 203k!”

Santa called his elves and they worked through the night

Complete Home Renovation was clear in their sight!

As ol’ Kris Kringle stowed his tools,

His new buddies at Impac explained all the rules.

“FHA guidelines are pretty much it…

Licensed Contractor, plans, and don’t forget the permit.”

New kitchen & baths, and floors of hardwood

Counters of granite & new molding that look good!

Santa had seen that his work was complete

Gave them a loan program that was so easy to meet

The family so happy, they could not speak

The Wife gave Santa a smooch on the cheek.

“Don’t thank me for this miracle tonight…

Go thank your Lender who got it right!”

With a payment and rate the family could bear,

They never thought that they’d have money to spare

When it was over, Claus climbed in his sled

“Your wish has come true, now you better go to bed.”

Impac commits that this product dream can come true

Call us today to see what we can do!

Turning houses to homes and making futures bright,

“Happy Holidays to all, and to all a good night!

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Artificial Intelligence in Mortgage Lending.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)

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