12.15.25 Fed Dual Mandate; FirstHome IQ's Kristin Messerli on Building Trust; Economic Calendar Preview

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the Fed's dual mandate. Plus, Robbie sits down with FirstHome IQ’s Kristin Messerli for a discussion on the growing trust and knowledge gap facing Millennial and Gen Z homebuyers, and the industry’s coordinated push to close these gaps and shape a more informed path to homeownership in 2026. And we close by examining what to look forward to on the economic calendar this week.

Thanks to the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Lenders lose ~80% of recapture business. Their plug & play Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume. It runs nonstop, analyzes every loan, creates personalized quotes and sends them directly to borrowers, and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. Demo?

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SPEAKER_00 0:02

Welcome to the Christman Commentary Daily Mortgage News Podcast. I'm your host, Robbie Christman. Topics on today's episode include artificial intelligence and mortgage lending, my interview with First Home IQs, Kristen Masterly on the growing trust and knowledge gap facing millennial and Gen Z home buyers. And we received some more delayed labor market indicators this week that will probably influence rates. Lenders lose about 80% of recapture business, but their plug and play ReFi Recapture Engine triples recapture volumes. It runs nonstop, analyzes every loan, creates personalized quotes, and sends them directly to borrowers. And it delivers ReFi ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. Looking for a demo? Go to info.elloautopilot.com. Apparently you can't use Beef Stew as a password. It's not Stroganoff. Not only is technology a proverbial conference favorite, but now nearly every event or webinar discusses AI. Last week, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at blocking states from enforcing their own artificial intelligence regulations. It will give the Trump administration tools to push back on the most onerous state rules, but you shouldn't believe something just because it's on your screen. Groc is spreading inaccurate information again, this time about the Bonnie Beach shooting. Given that communication happens with the speed of light, and everyone with the keyboard and access to the internet can be a reporter. Confusion is inevitable. At least when it comes to interest rates, let me try and make a little sense of it to you. For those who care what interest rates do and who doesn't, last week the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the Fed funds rate by twenty-five basis points, as widely expected, though the committee was split with four members preferring no change. The committee faces the challenging task of weighing persistent high inflation against a softening labor market. And during his press conference, Chairman Powell continued his recent rhetoric. Future moves would be guided by data, and the path of monetary policy is not a foregone conclusion. The upside risk to inflation remains the question of whether the tariffs have caused a one-time increase in price levels or if prices will keep rising. Meanwhile, hiring has fallen to a cycle low, per the October Joltz report, and employment costs have risen at their slowest annual pace since mid-2021. For today's interview, I wanted to welcome to the show First Home IQ's Kristen Messerly to talk about the growing trust and knowledge gap facing millennial and Gen Z home buyers and the industry's coordinated push to close these gaps and shape a more informed path to homeownership.

SPEAKER_01 2:53

It's going to be a little open-ended here, Kristen, because First Home IQ released its 2025 Impact Report. And uh before I ask any questions, can you just take people through kind of what it is, how many years you've been doing it, the importance of it, why you're so excited about it, those sorts of things.

SPEAKER_02 3:09

So this is our second annual report. Last year, this is really our second year of operation. And so what I'm most excited about with this is that it aggregates a lot of the research we did, the impact, um, shares real, you know, numbers. We were able to reach over 15,000 students this year. Um, but it also tells a story of industry collaboration and collective impact. Um, and that leads into where we believe in 2026 we can really scale that impact. So um, you know, we share some of that research and some of the um, you know, the participants and ambassadors, and then we share our vision for 2026.

SPEAKER_01 3:50

I don't even know where to follow up that up helping helping thousands of students here. What does that mean? What does that mean to help people and and um any success stories that you think would be would be cool to share here?

SPEAKER_02 4:03

Yeah, so some of that is, and I would love for everyone to go to our Instagram page and check out the video reel that walks through all of these areas of impact, but some of that is through presentations. So we have a lot of people doing uh presentations in their communities, financial literacy, going into schools or first-time home buyer workshops. Um, and then some of that is through the First HomeIQ quiz, which is now a validated research instrument for uh measuring your understanding of buying your first home, and then it provides education through that. Um, and then some of that is just through the consultations. Um, but mostly I would say it's through the presentations and quizzes.

SPEAKER_01 4:42

Yes, so people can go to firsthomeyq.com slash impact. You can sponsor one student, you could sponsor 10, you could sponsor 36, you can sponsor any amount. I'm gonna give a little shout out here. Why not? JJ Matso, 1,025 students sponsored this last year. Joe Soto came in at second with 952 students sponsored. So excellent work from those people. There's a bunch more people that that have ridiculous figures here, but uh just what how what does this program mean to you? Why are you so proud of it? Uh why is this kind of your your baby?

SPEAKER_02 5:12

Yeah, so it's interesting because when I started putting together the impact report, um, it was I was putting together my personal mission. Um, I was collecting responses from people of how many presentations did you do and that kind of thing? And I was just kind of running the numbers. And then I started doing some soul searching a bit and really thinking, why am I doing this? You know, and um, and it has really transformed, I think, how I now view my future and first home IQ scaling into 2026, because I believe we are really uniquely positioned as an industry to truly, I mean, we I've been saying this for a long time, but uniquely positioned to solve for the financial literacy crisis. But I think that's true now more than ever because mortgage professionals are working directly with consumers in the moment that is the biggest financial decision of their lives. And even if that person doesn't choose to buy a home at that moment, they are learning in a way that there's no other moment in their life that they're going to learn this much and actually process it around financial education. Um, so I think, you know, there's one aspect where mortgage professionals are in that moment. But then secondly, they are also able to do um do well by doing good, um, meaning they are are needing to set themselves up as a for, you know, their competitive opportunity is to set themselves up as the community leader around financial education, home buyer education. And so, especially in the world of AI where people have limited, you know, limitless access to information, but consumers in our research, we're seeing that consumers are consistently overwhelmed and um and you know, not getting the education, and they don't trust someone to help them make those smart decisions. And particularly, they don't trust people in this industry. And so I think there's an opportunity here where if loan officers show up as someone who can be trusted, who is delivering education and helping guiding people through that, they're creating really ripple effects of impact from not only those people, but the people that the that those people reach as well.

SPEAKER_01 7:23

Yeah, I was going to say kind of the best uh ways that this can continue to build momentum, uh, things you're seeing work really well out there. Just um, yeah, what what sort of impact can we expect in 2026 and beyond?

SPEAKER_02 7:39

So I'm really excited about where we're headed because this last year has really felt like we've built a strong foundation. We have people consistently showing up. Um, we have over 150 ambassadors who are you know present in their communities living this mission. Um and then we have, we're also in 2026, we're launching a first home IQ faculty, which uh includes top producers like Jeremy Forcier and Shayla Gifford and people who are um are also living this mission and are teaching that to the community. And so I think now where we are is um we we want to scale that impact. You know, we've heard from ambassadors what's working, we've practiced the, you know, the um, we've seen exactly what we need to do to create the most impact and where we weren't maybe creating as much impact. And so um, and one of those key areas is around building trust because as I mentioned before, I don't think the education happens without that trust. And this industry needs that really more than ever. Um, so what we're going to launch in 2026 is a certification for any loan officer who wants to be leading with trust and education. Um, and that's gonna be kind of an easy designation to add that builds trust and credibility and also gives you the soft skills that you need to be able to win in a market that's pretty noisy and um and you know, there's a lot of information out there. Um, and then secondly, we want to be working more on our partnerships where we can scale that impact. So we have the collaboration with the MBA, and um we're gonna start working more with lenders and making the certification and our presentation library available to all of their loan officers. Um, and then lastly, we're expanding our research and advocacy efforts. So um, advocacy is actually a little bit on the newer side, and um, but we're we're hoping to get at least 50 loan officers to attend MBA's National Advocacy Conference and um and really bring make policy a core area of how we build trust and lead with education in today's market through the mortgage industry and mortgage professionals.

SPEAKER_01 9:52

And I guess I'd be remiss if I didn't ask for uh some of your favorite parts of the report. Just what kind of jumped out to you, what surprised you in a really nice way when you had finally compiled everything together?

SPEAKER_02 10:04

I think um for me, and I put the cover of the report is like a bunch of ambassador faces, and it just is the collective impact. It's the fact that everyone is taking ownership over what it means to live out this mission in their lives and their workplace. And we're seeing so many people um pitch in with different different things, whether it be, you know, the MBA coming to us with the advocacy thing or the or um down payment resource and FinLocker offering their resources. Um there are a lot of companies like that, but there are also so many individuals who just said, yes, this is my mission too. And I mean, like yourself, I mean, there's there's people that are are living this and um and we're we're coming together as an industry to um to make sure that the next generation is more financially empowered. So I think looking at the top donors, I mean, you mentioned JJ and Joe, and um, but there's there's so many people, Nicole, Nicole Ruth, Jeremy Forcier, Mirsa, and people that um really just have bought in and um and are are participating, not only from a financial standpoint, but just kind of living that out, um, which is also where I was excited to see the um the you know that we're gonna launch the faculty next year too.

SPEAKER_01 11:27

Goals for next year, any? I mean, I don't want to.

SPEAKER_02 11:31

I one thing I did want to say, just as we're closing out the year, um, we did calculate how much it costs us to educate every student. And um it's $17 per student, which you can estimate a round number would be $150 to educate 10 students. So if anyone is interested in participating in this mission and doing any end-of-year donations, um, we you can go to firsthomeiq.com slash impact and um you know sponsor 10 students or however much you want to give. Um, or otherwise just be involved, share the first home IQ quiz, become an ambassador, or you know, just follow us for more education.

SPEAKER_01 12:12

And for you, I I know you and I actually got asked to speak together and at the Hawaii MBA annual conference next year, which I'm very much looking forward to. We do our mortgages with Millennial Show. For people wondering what Kristen Messerly is up to, how much of your time is spent on this? What else are you working on? Uh, where can people find you?

SPEAKER_02 12:29

Um so I am very excited about that as well. Um, but yeah, I all of my other work really aligns with what we're doing with First Home IQ. It would include speaking and um writing, but I'm very much or on the research side of things, very much focused on um just better understanding and teaching how to build trust in the industry. Um so I'm doing, you know, speaking and we'll have our next gen home buyer reports again next year. Um, so you can follow me on LinkedIn for updates around that. And if anyone um is looking for more research or speaking on that topic, you can go to Kristen Messerly.com.

SPEAKER_01 13:08

Well put. Kristen, you know it's always a pleasure. Uh I I get a huge smile on my face when I think about all the great things that you're doing. We're both trying to add value to the industry in our own ways. Yours is obviously very altruistic, and and I love to see it. I love uh helping get the message out there too. So thank you very much for your time and I wish you the best of luck.

SPEAKER_02 13:27

Thank you so much, Ravi. Great to chat with you.

SPEAKER_00 13:32

This week brings a dense slate of delayed U.S. employment and inflation data that could clarify which side of the Fed's dual mandate, labor or prices, deserves greater attention. Key releases include November payrolls tomorrow and October PCE on Friday, alongside retail sales, PMIs, housing data, sentiment surveys, and remarks from Fed officials. Globally, markets will also digest central bank decisions from Europe and Japan, with a Bank of England cut and a potential Bank of Japan hike and focus. While U.S. Supply features 20-year bonds and five-year tips midweek. In MBS, investors will monitor Class C and D 48-hour notifications tomorrow and Thursday. Today's calendar includes Empire Manufacturing for December, an AHB housing market index for December, and some Fed speak. We begin the day with agency MBS prices, little change from Friday's close, the two-year yielding 3.51, and the ten-year yielding 4.17 after closing last week at 4.19%. Let's wrap up with a joke and some housekeeping. A couple was doing last-minute shopping on Christmas Eve and walking through the very crowded mall, the wife looked up and noticed her husband was nowhere around. She became very upset because they had a lot to do. So she used her cell phone to call her husband and ask where he was, and in a calm voice, he said, Honey, remember the jewelry store we went to ten years ago where you fell in love with that diamond necklace that we could not afford, and I told you that I'd get it for you one day. The wife, crying, said, Yes, I remember. To which the husband replied, Well, I'm in the bar next to that jewelry store. Thanks to LO Autopilot for sponsoring today's podcast, and you need to check out their ReFi Recapture Engine. Lenders lose 80% of recapture business, but their plug and play ReFi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume. It runs nonstop, analyzes every loan, and creates personalized quotes and sends them directly to borrowers, and also delivers refi ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. Want a demo? Go to info.com.