12.12.25 Yield Curve Dynamics; iEmergent's Bernard Nossouli on Pricing Trends; Labor Market Samples

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at why short-term rates and long-term rates are seeing a decoupling. Plus, Robbie sits down with iEmergent’s Bernard Nossouli for a discussion on why mortgage demand is better predicted by bottom-up, borrower-level and local-market signals than by national macro assumptions, while still requiring vigilance for structural inventory gaps, demographic shifts, and policy shocks that lenders and policymakers must factor in to understand true housing opportunity. And we close by examining what we are in terms of labor market softening.

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Transcript

“Rob, what happened with the DSCR appraisal issue in Baltimore earlier this year?” Good question. Baltimore is not alone: This week we have investors either pricing themselves out of, or ceasing loans from, the Philly market for certain non-owner loans.) The whole Baltimore thing seems to have quieted down, and up until recently the last news coming in October although this week along came, “Baltimore is striking fear into private lenders across the country.” “Over the past three years, businesses connected to Benjamin Eidlisz purchased more than 700 houses in Baltimore. Through a subsidiary called Loan Funder LLC, Roc Capital financed at least $35 million of these deals, according to a Banner review of property records. That money was used to purchase and refinance at least 224 homes in Baltimore. Today, 70 percent of those homes are in foreclosure, records show.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Lenders One. Lenders One is dedicated to helping independent mortgage bankers, banks and credit unions reduce costs, improve profitability, and operate competitively in the mortgage industry and within their communities. Hear an interview with iEmergent’s Bernard Nossouli on why mortgage demand is better predicted by bottom-up, borrower-level and local-market signals than by national macro assumptions, while still requiring vigilance for structural inventory gaps, demographic shifts, and policy shocks that lenders and policymakers must factor in to understand true housing opportunity.)

Employment & transitions

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QC Ally has named Scott Ingram as Chief Information Officer, strengthening the company’s commitment to secure, reliable, and modern mortgage QC and due diligence services. With more than 20 years of experience in cybersecurity, cloud architecture, and enterprise technology, Scott has already played a key role in enhancing QC Ally’s systems, including supporting the recent SOC 2 Type II certification. His leadership will drive continued advancement in data protection, system resilience, and technology innovation at a time when security has never been more critical for the mortgage industry.

“Tired of watching your hard-earned customer relationships get sold off, only to have an investor compete with you for the repeat and referral business you built? Does it bother you that this investor’s source of competitive advantage comes from cutting you out of the next transaction? At SWBC Mortgage, that doesn’t happen. We retain servicing for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA, and USDA loans, a commitment we’ve upheld since before the pandemic. We’re working with you, not against you. Our loan officers don’t just build pipelines; they build lasting relationships and long-term success. With strong servicing retention, award-winning programs, and leadership invested in your growth, we provide the support and stability you need to thrive in 2026. Ready for a career move that truly matters? Contact Scott Brown, EVP – National Retail Sales, at (615) 260-2382.”

“Evergreen Home Loans' expansion continues as we now have loan officers originating in Colorado. This growth reflects our commitment to serving more borrowers with local, relationship-based lending backed by a strong regional and national platform. By adding experienced Colorado loan officers to our team, Evergreen can better support buyers, homeowners, and real estate partners in key markets across the state while maintaining our focus on personalized service, innovative products, and on-time closings. Our presence in Colorado complements our existing footprint and opens new opportunities for loan officers looking to join a culture that values support, collaboration, and long-term careers. To learn more about Evergreen’s growth and recruitment opportunities, contact Todd Miles or visit us.”

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Lender and broker services, products, and software

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ServiceLink is proudly celebrating a banner year, driven by a team committed to Linking What Matters™ for lenders, investors, and servicers. In 2025, ServiceLink employees were recognized by multiple industry organizations and publications. We congratulate all winners, including the HousingWire Women of Influence Award winner Eva Tapia, Senior Vice President, Auction; HousingWire Tech Trendsetters Award winner Amit Kulkarni, Senior Vice President, Product Management; Women in Housing Industry Partner Impact Award winner Miriam Moore, Division President, Default Services; HousingWire Vanguard Award winner Dave Steinmetz, Division President, Origination Services; and 2025 Valuation Visionary Award winner Liz Green, Senior Vice President, Valuation Solutions, to name a few. Organizationally, ServiceLink is proud to be the recipient of the 2025 MortgagePoint Tech Excellence award, the 2025 Progress in Lending Tech Titan award, the HousingWire Tech100 award and the 2025 Game Changer award by Progress in Lending. Check out more from ServiceLink’s newsroom here.

“Correspondent-in-a-Box (CIAB) powered by Black Lake is the mortgage industry’s answer to that moment when you open your pantry, stare at random ingredients, and somehow expect dinner to assemble itself. Lenders keep doing the same thing: hoping a correspondent channel, a bid desk, or a non-QM strategy will magically appear. Spoiler: it won’t. So, we built a solution that does assemble itself. Think of it like the modern air fryer of correspondent lending: drop in your loans, push a button, and voilà: pool-level best-ex, loan-level best-ex, Non-QM hedging, investor discovery, and a fully-contained execution engine powered by AI/ML that never burns the fries. Agency, non-QM, second lien, whole loan… it handles the whole menu. Unlike kitchen gadgets that charge you upfront, we’re your partner, not a subscription with recurring minimum fees. Serve up correspondent excellence, without the smoke alarms. Contact: info@blacklakeinvestments.com or book a demo to learn more.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR on simple borrower psychology

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Mortgage lenders spend a lot of time focused on rates, products, and technology. But what if the biggest opportunity is much simpler, and much more human? STRATMOR Group’s latest InFocus article, “The ROI of ‘Why’: Fixing One Defining Borrower Moment Can Transform Your Business,” looks at how fixing one often-overlooked borrower interaction can have an outsized impact on pull-through, trust, and long-term loyalty. It’s not about adding another tool or redesigning the entire process. It’s about understanding — and responding to — the borrower’s “why” at the moments it matters most. Based on real-world experience and borrower insight, the article challenges lenders to rethink how empathy shows up in the mortgage process and why that shift can deliver measurable ROI. Read the firm’s latest Insights Report here.

Homebuyer assistance answer sought

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I received a note from an industry vet. “The homebuyer assistance program that I discussed is under the CPD. The issue concerns the sales price limits for this grant program. The new limits should have been published in September, but they weren’t. No one can get an answer from HUD field offices as to when the new numbers will be released. I understand about the shutdown, but they should have been released prior to the shutdown. Moreover, the government has been back open for a month. Anything you can do to help with contacts would be greatly appreciated.” If anyone has an answer, please reply to this email with it.

Capital markets: hope that you like rates where they are

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Despite a 25-basis point rate cut and the launch of $40 billion per month in T-bill purchases, investors have fixated on the 2026 “dot plot,” which shows only one rate cut next year, an outlook increasingly at odds with Powell’s caution that payroll data may be overstating job growth and that true job creation “may actually be negative.” With the BLS set to backfill two months of missing employment reports due to the shutdown before the next Fed meeting, the labor picture is unusually murky. Additionally, the dot plot’s projection of lower 2026 core PCE inflation (to 2.5 percent) sits uncomfortably beside rising evidence of labor-market deterioration. As a result, the dot plot may prove too optimistic: the risks to the policy path skew toward more, not fewer, cuts, especially if the weak labor momentum extends into early 2025.

The recent steepening of the Treasury curve, driven by short-end strength and aided by the Fed’s shift of mortgage roll-off toward the front end, has widened the 2s/10s spread to its highest level since early September, benefiting agency ARMs but pressuring lower-coupon 30-year MBS and favoring Treasuries in relative-value terms. How far this curve move extends will depend on the scale of forthcoming “reserve management purchases,” which Fed Chair Powell (during his press conference) noted will be supported by removing limits on standing repo operations. Outright T-bill purchases financed by newly created bank reserves expand the money supply, unlike simple balance-sheet asset swaps, and therefore carry the classic inflationary risks associated with central bank debt monetization.

Treasuries still remain range-bound, with 10-year yields repeatedly failing to hold above 4.20 percent and 2-year yields anchored near 3.50 percent, reflecting investors’ reluctance to embrace the Fed’s projections ahead of next week’s pivotal CPI and payroll releases. For now, the market’s consolidation (and the Fed’s own shift toward emphasizing the “extent and timing” of future adjustments) suggests a nearing pause in rate cuts, but the data arriving in the coming weeks will determine whether that pause is brief or even feasible. Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury auction went smoothly. It ended with a slightly better-than-expected yield, and most of the buying came from investors outside the big Wall Street banks. Demand was roughly in line with normal levels, and although bonds had cooled off a bit before the auction, prices didn’t move much afterward.

We learned yesterday that jobless claims rose sharply to 236k, the highest since September, while continuing claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since April, though both series were likely affected by seasonal Thanksgiving distortions. At the same time, the trade deficit narrowed far more than expected to $52.8 billion, its smallest since June 2020, as exports posted their strongest monthly gain in over two years and imports edged higher, contributing to an overall mixed but steady set of data that has kept markets in a range-trading pattern. And after getting within 3-basis points of the year-to-date lows in the prior week, mortgage rates rose for the first time in three weeks in the latest week’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac. For the week ending December 11, the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates rose 3-basis points and 10-basis points to 6.22 percent and 5.54 percent, respectively, though they remain lower by 38-basis points and 30-basis points from a year ago.

There aren’t any scheduled economic releases on today’s calendar, but Fedspeak resumes, with at least three speakers: Philadelphia’s Paulson, Cleveland’s Hammack, and Chicago’s Goolsbee. Without any data on today’s calendar, we begin Friday with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.54, and the 10-year yielding 4.17 after closing yesterday at 4.14 percent.

There was a man who worked for the post office whose job was to process all the mail that had illegible addresses. One day, a letter came addressed in a shaky handwriting to God with no actual address. He thought he should open it to see what it was about.

The letter read:

Dear God,

I am an 83-year-old widow, living on a very small pension.

Yesterday someone stole my purse. It had $100 in it, which was all the money I had until my next pension payment.

Coming up is Christmas, and I had invited two of my friends over for dinner. Without that money, I have nothing to buy food with, have no family to turn to, and you are my only hope. Can you please help me?

Sincerely, Edna

The postal worker was touched. He showed the letter to all the other workers. Each one dug into his or her wallet and came up with a few dollars.

By the time he made the rounds, he had collected $96, which they put into an envelope and sent to the woman.

The rest of the day, all the workers felt a warm glow thinking of Edna and the dinner she would be able to share with her friends.

Christmas came and went.

A few days later, another letter came from the same old lady to God.

All the workers gathered around while the letter was opened.

It read:

Dear God,

How can I ever thank you enough for what you did for me?

Because of your gift of love, I was able to fix a glorious dinner for my friends. We had a very nice day, and I told my friends about your wonderful gift.

By the way, there was $4 missing.

I think it might have been those bastards at the post office.

Sincerely,

Edna

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Artificial Intelligence in Mortgage Lending.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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