12.10.25 Assumable Mortgages; Nicole Nosek on Housing Legislation; Fed Decision Day

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the idea of assumable mortgages, which have returned to the spotlight amid current affordability challenges. Plus, Robbie sits down with Texans for Reasonable Solutions’ Nicole Nosek for a discussion on how housing reform hinges on pairing pro-supply, market-friendly policy with strategies that defuse local resistance, protect affordability for lower- and middle-income families. And we close by examining what to expect beyond a rate cut at the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting.

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Transcript

Somewhere, in a parallel universe, Mariah Carey is walking around some supermarket, sick of listening to me sing Christmas carols. This is, of course, a humorous assumption, but what isn’t so humorous is the discussion begun by the Trump Administration about assumable mortgages, arguably the bane of MBS investors. Locked-in mortgage rates and frozen inventory have pushed an old idea back into the spotlight: the assumable mortgage, a feature long limited to FHA and VA loans but now debated as a potential fix for an affordability crisis that rate cuts alone cannot solve. As millions of ultra-low-rate mortgages sit trapped under American homes, policymakers, lenders, and consumers are wrestling with big questions about equity, market distortion, and what happens when formal financing channels no longer meet the needs of buyers and sellers. From the legal gray zones of “subject to” deals to international models like portable mortgages, pressure is building for bold solutions that could reshape everything from MBS markets to household mobility. The debate over assumability is really a debate about whether the housing system can adapt before consumers invent their own workarounds. Click to read the full deep dive. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Lenders One. Lenders One is dedicated to helping independent mortgage bankers, banks and credit unions reduce costs, improve profitability, and operate competitively in the mortgage industry and within their communities. Hear an interview with Texans for Reasonable Solutions’ Nicole Nosek on how housing reform hinges on pairing pro-supply, market-friendly policy with strategies that defuse local resistance, protect affordability for lower- and middle-income families. Robbie says you don’t want to miss this one.)

Employment & transitions & promotions

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“Are you a proven, dynamic leader in mortgage sales ready to take on a role that defines our national growth trajectory? We are seeking an experienced Channel Sales Manager to design, build, and scale our high-impact remote sales organization. This isn't just a management role. It's a strategic leadership position focused on penetrating and securing business with the nation's largest mortgage originators and unlocking key, high-potential markets currently without local coverage. You will be responsible for recruiting, mentoring, and empowering a national team built for precision, top-tier performance, and deep partnership. Success in this role demands a unique blend of sophisticated data-driven strategy and impeccable white glove relationship management. Ready to own the strategy and scale the channel? Please submit your confidential interest and resume directly to Jack O'Brien to learn more.”

“What’s better than waiting for holiday magic? Creating that magic for yourself. This season, give yourself the ultimate gift: becoming your own boss. With Motto Mortgage, you can launch your very own mortgage brokerage, without starting from scratch. Here’s what we wrap up for you: a guided office launch, an ever-growing library of professional marketing content, an intuitive technology ecosystem, on-demand educational opportunities, compliance support, and more. Skip the reindeer games and unwrap real opportunity this holiday season. Email franchise@mottomortgage.com for details on mortgage franchise ownership.”

The CFPB's top enforcement officer Michael Salemi resigned, saying there is "no path forward" for an effective enforcement program under the Trump Administration's approach to the agency. Active cases will not be dropped. Instead, they will be transferred to the DOJ as the agency runs out of money. With no replacement yet for Salemi, the prospect of aggressive enforcement action out of the CFPB appears to be unlikely over the near term.

Optimal Blue announced the promotion of two longtime leaders into C-suite roles. Lanny Rogers III, CPA, will serve as chief financial officer. He has held several finance-related roles since joining Optimal Blue in 2017 and most recently served as VP of accounting. Jeremy Moreno will serve as chief revenue officer. Part of Optimal Blue for more than a decade, he most recently served as VP of sales.

ServiceLink has promoted experienced Default Services Leader Matt Rogina to SVP, Sales Manager where he will assist with the management and development of the default sales team and further expand the success of the ServiceLink suite of solutions, which include auction, field services, valuations, REO asset management, attorney/servicer reporting solutions, title and closing. Rogina has been with the Fidelity National Financial family of companies for more than 28 years, during which he has held numerous operational and leadership roles, with the last 15 years dedicated to ServiceLink’s default sales team.

Class Valuation today announced the appointment of 20-year vet Daniel Allan Busch as chief financial officer. Depth writes his background includes deep experience in private equity environments, business transformation, data-driven performance, guiding significant growth and leading large cross-functional teams spanning finance, IT, procurement and more.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Lender and broker services, products, and software

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Struggling to manage integrations or discover new partner connections? Comergence by Optimal Blue makes it simple with two powerful solutions: Solution Center and Integration Studio. Solution Center is your centralized marketplace for mortgage industry partners. You can search, connect, and subscribe to tools and services without the hassle of separate contacts or systems. Integration Studio takes efficiency to the next level by offering flexible integration options: choose no-code connections for instant setup or APIs for complete customization. Connect Comergence to platforms like Salesforce in hours, not weeks, and enjoy automated sync, field mapping, and self-service management. Now you can combine marketplace access and seamless integrations with Comergence by Optimal Blue. Ready to simplify operations, scale smarter, and stay ahead of the competition? Learn more about Solution Center and Integration Studio in Comergence and transform the way you work.

Remember when you had to trek the kids to the mall to meet “Santa.” Kids nowadays can chat with him interactively thanks to the magic of AI Santa. Lenders nationwide are discovering their own holiday magic with Floify’s Dynamic AI, which reshaping the POS experience by extracting, validating and prepopulating verified data from borrower-uploaded documents the magical moment the loan process begins. Lenders using Dynamic AI are closing gaps in accuracy, speeding application completion from hours to minutes and wrapping up pre-approvals faster (often the same day). Because Dynamic AI is embedded directly into Floify, lenders gain powerful automation without adding new systems or disrupting workflow. With seamless connections to LOSs, CRMs, pricing engines, underwriting and verification services, Dynamic AI delivers cleaner files, shorter cycle times, and more-merry borrowers. Ready to sleigh with Dynamic AI and see what it can do for your team? Floify is ready to delight (with bells on).

“Markets shift. Calendars flip. Service stays steady. As the year winds down and market conditions continue to change, keep your business steady with wemlo®. As a third-party mortgage loan processing company, wemlo provides scalable support that adapts to your evolving needs. Whether you’re wrapping up a busy 2025 or preparing for a productive 2026, you can count on wemlo processors to be available when business ramps up and easily pause when things slow down. Best of all, there’s no subscription fee or minimum loan requirement to work with wemlo. Ready to finish the year strongly with adaptable assistance? Book a 1:1 wemlo demo today.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Broker and correspondent loan products

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Verus Mortgage Capital extends its gratitude to its partners for another record year of volume. This achievement reflects what the company and its partners have built together over the past 11 years: a shared commitment to excellence, consistent execution and common-sense underwriting that enables originators to serve borrowers often overlooked by traditional channels. Verus has earned its position through reliable partnerships and an unwavering focus on the non-QM market. That focus continues to drive strong results, and the company is confident that 2026 will be no exception. Verus has forecasted a 30 percent increase over this year’s record performance. The company thanks its partners for their continued trust and looks forward to building on this success in the year ahead. Learn more at verusmc.com or contact Jeff Schaefer, EVP of National Sales, at 202-534-1821.

“Closing by Months End! Hopefully all your Christmas shopping is done but if not, there are still 15 Shopping days until Christmas and still enough time for us to get your HELOCs closed for Month End! Do your borrowers have a home they need to be in for Christmas? Submit a complete package today and we can help make that Christmas wish come true! Do your borrowers need cash for their Christmas Vacation? We can get a Stand-Alone Done by year end as well (with a complete submission package and quick turn on the valuation). Please reach out to your Symmetry AE for details and to make sure we receive everything needed to get your loan closed quickly! Have a festive week! Symmetry Lending.”

When buyers pause, SmartBuy™ helps turn hesitation into action. SmartBuy™ Down Payment Assistance helps you capture creditworthy borrowers who fall through the cracks of other DPA programs. With no income limits, no first-time homebuyer requirements, and flexible options, SmartBuy™ expands eligibility while giving builders and lenders a powerful tool to boost absorption and keep pipelines moving. Partnering with Click n’ Close Correspondent Lending provides access to proven DPA solutions that offer faster delegated closings, realtor- and builder-friendly features, and retained servicing on both the 1st and 2nd mortgages for a stronger customer experience. To learn more, connect with a correspondent account executive or visit our Contact Us page.

Homebuyer age matters

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FirstHome IQ released its 2025 Impact Report this week, calling attention to a widening trust and knowledge gap among Millennial and Gen Z homebuyers. The report outlines an industry-wide effort to close these gaps through education, policy, and a rapidly expanding network of mission-driven Ambassadors and Faculty. Explore the full report to see the progress shaping the future of homebuyer education and the industry’s bold plan for collective impact in 2026.

Capital markets: let’s take the focus off the Federal Reserve

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Remember when the yield curve was inverted, and we all feared a recession… that never came? What are the “experts” predicting now?

Buyers of fixed-income securities, like those backed by mortgages, exercised restraint ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee decision, causing selling pressure into the market close yesterday. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate closed yesterday at 4.18 percent, above the 100-day-moving-average (4.16 percent), a level that hasn’t been tested as support since August 18; 10-year yields are up roughly 15-basis points from where they began December. Beyond these levels, 4.20 percent has been well-defended since the summer and should continue to offer compelling support unless there’s quite the rebound in the economic outlook.

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury auction went smoothly, with strong demand and a slightly better-than-expected final yield (Note: this was the steepest the 2s/10s curve has been on the day of a 10-year auction since April 9th). Most of the buying came from non-dealer investors showing solid interest even though overall bidding was close to average. Treasury yields were basically unchanged before and after the auction, signaling a steady market reaction and back in a zone that has enticed “dip buyers” in the secondary market on various occasions since the Fed shifted back into rate-cutting mode in September.

And about the Fed? The decision today is expected to produce a 25-basis point rate cut and a signal from the Fed that it is unlikely to cut rates again soon…or at least until the policy committee feels more comfortable that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2.0 percent target. In the biz, we call that a "hawkish cut. Policymakers are expected to stress meeting-by-meeting flexibility as markets weigh whether labor demand is truly recovering or simply noisy. The seven-week period until the next FOMC meeting contains an unusually large number of top-tier data-points; by the time the Fed meets in January, investors will have seen payrolls for October, November, and December (with unemployment released for November and December.

Speaking of labor demand, the first post-shutdown JOLTS report showed a sharper than expected rebound in job openings to 7.67 million, the strongest since May, briefly lifting Treasury yields before they retraced, but the data came with major methodological caveats and a quits rate that fell to its lowest since 2020, underscoring an uneven labor picture that still leaves workers on the weaker side of full employment. Private indicators (e.g., Indeed postings) suggest vacancies may be stabilizing, while ADP signals soft hiring momentum, contributing to uncertainty that will make upcoming payroll and inflation releases unusually influential for a Fed preparing its December projections with stale pre-shutdown data. Meanwhile, small-business sentiment improved modestly in November, with the NFIB index rising on better sales expectations and stronger hiring plans even as cost pressures persisted through more reported price and compensation increases.

Agency MBS prepayment speeds fell sharply in November despite mortgage rates hovering near their mid-September lows, and although day count and seasonals should temporarily boost activity, the broader outlook remains weak because rates appear to have bottomed and are unlikely to drop further given persistent inflation and market expectations for a higher Treasury yield path. With refinance indexes already down more than 30 percent from their recent peak and a still-large share of borrowers locked into ultra-low pandemic-era mortgage rates, both refinancing and existing home sales face ongoing drag as these cohorts slowly shrink. This gradual erosion is reflected in increasingly negative option-adjusted convexity for major MBS indices, while shorter-duration Fannie Mae 15- and 20-year securities remain comparatively stable and better positioned if rates shift materially in either direction.

Yes, today brings that latest FOMC decision as well as updated Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The dot plot will be watched closely for the number of cuts for 2026 (after the median dots showed just one in October), as well as for the path of inflation towards the 2 percent target. Several central banks, including the Royal Bank of Australia a day ago, have already signaled that their next rate change could be a hike. Lame duck Jerome’s press conference will likely invoke further remarks on the “fog” surrounding the data given the government shutdown.

Ahead of the Fed, the Mortgage Bankers Association was out with weekly mortgage applications. Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, for the week ending December 5, 2025. A decline was expected with both the 10-year yield and mortgage rates rising, but stats have been “noisy” following the prior Thanksgiving week.

We’ve also received employment costs for Q3 (+.8 percent, about as expected). Later today brings the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision (odds favor no cut from 2.25 percent), and Treasury releasing the November budget statement. We begin Fed decision day with Agency MBS prices little changed from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.62, and the 10-year yielding 4.20 after closing yesterday at 4.18 percent.

Shawn H. writes, “What do you call a Christmas wreath made out of $100 bills? ‘A wreath of Franklins.’” (Get it, music lovers?)

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Artificial Intelligence in Mortgage Lending.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)