12.8.25 Fed Week; C2 Financial's David Temko on Wholesale; Volatile December

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we discuss just what to look forward to from the Federal Reserve's meeting this week. Plus, Robbie sits down with C2 Financial’s David Temko for a discussion on the upcoming National Home Affordability Counseling Day, where mortgage brokers across America will give free one-on-one credit counseling to create a path to homeownership. And we close by examining why this December is bringing more volatility to the bond markets than usual.

Lenders One is dedicated to helping independent mortgage bankers, banks and credit unions reduce costs, improve profitability, and operate competitively in the mortgage industry and within their communities.

Transcript

“Blimps are one of the only forms of advertisement people are actually excited to see.” “Rob, we see all kinds of companies advertising at conferences. We are trying to lower our cost per loan, and I am doing a more formal review of third-party providers. I am wondering if there is a list of vendors who focus on certain areas out there?” Yup: a very good place to start is The Marketplace. Page down to look at the categories. (If your company isn’t on there yet, contact Jake Perkins.) Advertising is a piece of marketing, and on today’s Now Next Later (at 1PM ET) Jeremy Potter and Bri Lees, advisor to mortgage leaders, take a deep dive into the state of marketing and sales in mortgage and explore the differences between B2B and B2C strategies, where the industry is succeeding, where it needs to pivot, and the innovative marketing approaches mortgage has yet to tap into. Some will say that there are still too many lenders, too many LOs, and too many vendors. “If you get the deal, it will be with low margins.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Lenders One. Lenders One is dedicated to helping independent mortgage bankers, banks and credit unions reduce costs, improve profitability, and operate competitively in the mortgage industry and within their communities. Hear an interview with C2 Financial’s David Temko on the upcoming National Home Affordability Counseling Day, where mortgage brokers across America will give free one-on-one credit counseling to create a path to homeownership.)

CD company wanted, talent agent, employment

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The STRATMOR Group is representing a large mortgage loan servicer seeking to acquire a Consumer Direct (CD) lender with FNMA, FHLMC and GNMA approvals. The servicer offers access to their existing servicing customers for recapture and referral opportunities. The right CD partner will be able to maintain existing leadership, sales, fulfillment, and technology through a stock acquisition structure. Reach out to David Hrobon at STRATMOR for a confidential exploratory conversation.

Sente Mortgage welcomes industry leader John Owens as Vice President of Strategic Growth to drive the Austin-based lender's disciplined approach to sustainable expansion. Over the past two decades, John has built a reputation for helping mortgage organizations grow with intention… not volume for volume's sake. His ability to strengthen market presence, elevate branch performance, and reinforce financial resilience aligns with Sente's 18-year track record of stability, consistency, and a uniquely independent strategy. Leveraging Sente's long-standing commitment to retaining servicing, "always flat" structure, and fortress balance sheet, John will lead the company's next phase of expansion across the U.S. The industry is consolidating quickly, and John is building a team of partners who want to shape the next chapter of independent mortgage banking. If you're a mortgage professional who thinks differently, connecting with John is your next step. 

“Some people involved in finding and working with job candidates are like fast food: Quick pitch, cheap promises, looks good in the moment. But it leaves you feeling worse later. Why? Because fast food is designed around their margins, not your health. Many are the same: selling what their company wants, not what you actually need. A nutrition coach is different. They listen, look at your long-term goals, and create something sustainable. That’s the difference between being ‘sold’ and being ‘represented.’ At Z Talent, we take the nutrition coach approach to careers: listening, advocating, and aligning with what’s best for you, even if it’s harder work. That’s why we are an Agent for our partners: ZTalent.org.”

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Lender and broker services, products, and software

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2000+ Data Sources. 60+ Pre-Built Dashboards. Day-1 Results. See Mortgage Lending Data Intelligence & Analytics in Action: Watch the On-Demand Webinar Today. Instantly begin growing your mortgage lending business with advanced, out-of-the-box intelligence and analytics from the NEW MeridianLink® Insight for Mortgage. Check out the on-demand webinar overview of this cutting-edge data solution for an inside look at the features designed to improve decision making & speed up approvals, streamline & personalize borrower experiences, pinpoint actionable engagement opportunities, and drive lasting growth through real-time reporting. And that’s just the beginning! Discover how MeridianLink Insight for Mortgage can turn your data into accelerated growth potential.

Ever wish your mortgage process could get a complete backstage pass and come out looking like a headliner? St. Mary’s Bank, the nation’s first credit union, actually pulled it off. With the Empower LOS from Dark Matter Technologies, the team streamlined dozens of manual steps into one coordinated flow that keeps borrowers, agents, and underwriters playing in perfect rhythm. In the latest episode of “The Spotlight Backstage,” Dark Matter’s Product Evangelist Craig Rebmann sits down with Shirene Hodgson and Jessica Cutone to show you how St. Mary’s blended people, process, and technology into a performance that delivers faster decisions and member-first service. If you’re looking for real-world inspiration on how to tune up your own mortgage operations, this is the encore worth catching. Watch the glow-up now. 

Live webinar at 2PM ET: Regression Analysis & Fair Lending: Making Sense of the Story Your Data Tells! Regression analysis is a powerful way to understand whether your lending data tells a story of fairness, consistency, and sound decision-making. Even if your institution doesn’t perform the analysis in-house, knowing what regression results mean, and how to interpret them in context, is essential for building a strong, data-informed fair lending program. Join Ncontracts’ fair lending expert Cassandra Wayman as she breaks down the role of regression analysis in evaluating lending patterns and uncovering risk. You’ll explore how this analysis fits into a broader fair lending strategy, what common findings indicate, and how technology (including AI) helps institutions understand their data with greater clarity and confidence. Register now.

A notable update this month comes from LenderLogix, which has added a new eSignature capability to LiteSpeed, its point of sale built for Encompass lenders. The enhancement allows borrowers to sign documents directly inside their LiteSpeed dashboard, while loan teams manage and request signatures through one unified system that reduces friction from application to closing. The result is a more streamlined workflow with fewer detours, higher completion rates, and a consistent audit trail across the process. Lenders evaluating ways to modernize their borrower intake and document execution should take a closer look. Learn more here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Broker and correspondent loan products

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You wanted it. It's here. The Rocket Pro DSCR program is built for scale, not confusion. One clean set of guidelines, DSCR calculation at registration, direct access to underwriting, and decisions in hours. If the investor loan has a 680+ FICO and a 1.0+ DSCR, the file qualifies for the best execution without jumping through hoops. And most loans reach approval without conditions that drag timelines. Rocket Pro’s DSCR loan is live now. Price it today. Not a Rocket Pro partner? Sign up now. NMLS #3030 | Equal Housing Lender.

“PHH Mortgage is elevating the way lenders access non-Agency solutions with the launch of our FlexIQ Non-Agency Delegated and Non-Delegated pricing in LoanNEX. This partnership brings the full depth of our FlexIQ offering directly into the pricing engine you rely on, making it easier than ever to evaluate scenarios, compare options and deliver certainty to your clients. With real-time pricing, intuitive scenario modeling, and clear eligibility guidance, LoanNEX now gives sellers a faster, more efficient way to navigate today’s complex non-Agency market. Whether you’re structuring bank statement loans, DSCR, asset depletion, or other alternative-income solutions, FlexIQ Delegated and Non-Delegated pricing is now just a few clicks away. This integration reflects our commitment to empowering sellers with transparency, speed, and the support of seasoned non-Agency experts who help you build confidence in every deal. If you’re already using LoanNEX, you can enable PHH Mortgage’s FlexIQ Non-Agency Delegated & Non-Delegated pricing today! If you’re not already partnered with LoanNEX, get more information here.”

Capital markets: just cuz the Fed lowers .25 doesn’t mean…

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It is December, and… things get quiet. For many years, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) closed relatively flat as the market continued to drift at its current levels given the lack of year-end conviction from traders being out of office for the holiday season. Lenders know that even if/when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowers or raises rates, 30-year mortgage rates are a different animal and a Fed move may actually move mortgage rates in the opposite direction.

Market expectations have shifted towards anticipating the Fed, through its FOMC, to cut rates following its meeting this week before pausing in January. The FOMC appears increasingly divided on its near-term policy path, likely resulting in multiple dissents, though a more hawkish post-meeting statement may help signal a higher bar for further cuts and imply a January hold as the baseline. Adjustments to the Summary of Economic Projections will probably show higher unemployment and lower inflation in 2025, while 2026 projections should see slightly higher Gross Domestic Product and unemployment and marginally lower inflation. While the median 2026 dot is expected to stay at 3.375 percent, even one participant lowering their rate could shift it down, and given softer inflation and labor forecasts, the risks to that median are tilted to the downside.

The outlook for mortgage supply hinges largely on refinancing, with the author expecting slightly higher lending rates, flat home prices, weaker refi incentives, and modestly stronger home sales to produce roughly $1.4 trillion in gross supply, still higher than the 2015–2019 average. Since Fed cuts have not meaningfully lowered mortgage rates, the main driver of increased supply has been the surge in refinance activity, particularly in Ginnie Mae loans, while purchase volumes have remained essentially flat in both dollar terms and loan counts. From 2023 to 2025, purchase-driven agency MBS supply has been steady at roughly 2.5 million loans per year, but refi production has grown sharply (from $137 billion to an annualized $305 billion) making Ginnie Mae the dominant source of gross supply, a trend likely to continue into 2026 amid persistent affordability challenges.

Markets over the last week digested a mix of recent November releases and delayed September data. The November ISM Services PMI rose further into expansionary territory, the ninth reading above 50 this year. Prices paid continued to remain high. Conversely, manufacturing activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month with both New Orders and Employment falling by two percentage points. Survey respondents indicated managing headcounts remains a priority over hiring. Turning to September’s data, overall spending was flat as strong services demand outweighed a decline in goods. Prior months were revised lower as well. September’s inflation data was in line with expectations but remains above the Fed’s target. In total, last week’s data did little to shift the broader economic narrative.

This week is shaping up for a quiet start on the data front, but the U.S. Treasury will sell $58 billion in 3-year notes on Monday, followed by a $39 billion 10-year note reopening on Tuesday, and a $22 billion 30-year bond reopening on Thursday. The highlight of this week’s calendar brings the FOMC events on Wednesday afternoon: the statement, Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in roughly an 84 percent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut (to a target range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent). As a reminder, in the last dot plot, the 2026 median dot showed just one cut over the whole year. Besides the Fed, the RBA (Australia) will be out with its latest decision tomorrow, followed by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, and the SNB (Switzerland) on Thursday.

As mentioned above, this week’s data is less of the market-moving variety, with NFIB, JOLTS job openings, the employment cost index, the budget statement, and wholesale trade. Fedspeak resumes later in the week. For MBS, Class A and B 48-hours notifications are tomorrow and Friday, respectively. Today’s calendar is all about supply and will be headlined by the aforementioned $59 billion 3-year notes. Monday morning has Agency MBS prices little changed from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.58, and the 10-year yielding 4.15 after closing last week at 4.14 percent, up 12-basis points over the course of last week.

(Warning! Rated PG. No complaints please. Thank you to California’s Euie H. for this one.)

A woman was enjoying a good game of golf with her girlfriends.

"Oh, no!" she suddenly exclaimed. "Look at the time! I have to rush home and fix dinner for my husband! He'll be really upset if it's not ready on time."

When she got home, she discovered all she had in the fridge was a wilted lettuce leaf, an egg… and a can of cat food.

With no time to go to the supermarket, she opened the can of cat food, stirred in the egg, and garnished it with the lettuce leaf. She greeted her husband warmly when he came home and then watched in horror as he sat down to his dinner. To her surprise, he seemed to be enjoying it.

"Darling,” he said, “This is the best dinner you've made me in 40 years of marriage! You can make this for me any day!"

Needless to say, every golf day from then on, the woman made her husband the same dish.

Time passed, and she told her golf partners about it. They were all horrified

"You're going to kill him!" they exclaimed.

Two months later, her husband died.

The women were sitting around the clubhouse and finally one of them said, "You killed him! We told you that feeding him that cat food every week would do him in! How can you just sit there so calmly knowing you murdered your husband?"

The wife stoically replied, "I didn't kill him. He fell off the windowsill while he was licking his a--."

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Artificial Intelligence in Mortgage Lending.”  “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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