11.10.25 Funded Mortgage Volume; TRUE's Steve Butler on Income; Prepayment Takeaways

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at funded volume trends. Plus, Robbie sits down with TRUE’s Steve Butler for a discussion on the challenges of income analysis in
lending, particularly the delays caused by manual data entry and underwriting processes, and how technological advancements are solving this. And we close by looking at what the prepayment report says about borrower incentive to refinance.

This week's podcasts are sponsored by TransUnion. Mortgage lenders choose TransUnion for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions, enabling them to achieve more desirable lending outcomes in a volatile housing market.

Transcript

“6-7!” has swept the nation for youngsters of indeterminant age, and for no real reason. Other numbers have meaning, as do dates. For example, today is November 10th and on this day in 1975, the freighter S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during a massive storm, killing all 29 of the crew. (Gordon Lightfoot memorialized the tragedy in a hit song the following year.) What’s in a number? Today, let’s look at “50” or “100.” Through some social media software, the president has brought up the 50- or 100-year mortgage as a way of improving affordability. Most people in this country would prefer to pay off their mortgage sooner than later. Does anyone admire the Japanese economy, or grandkids paying off their grandparent’s mortgage? “Through the use of simulation, the conclusion is reached that the 100-year mortgage has failed to increase the affordability of homes. Instead, affluent homeowners are more likely to employ long-term mortgages as an estate-planning tool to reduce inheritance taxes.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. Mortgage lenders choose TransUnion for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions, enabling them to achieve more desirable lending outcomes in a volatile housing market. Hear an interview with TRUE’s Steve Butler on the challenges of income analysis in lending, particularly the delays caused by manual data entry and underwriting processes, and how technological advancements are solving this.)

Employment

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“First Tech Federal Credit Union is growing its Wholesale Home Equity division and hiring Senior Account Executives and a Wholesale Sales Manager to help lead national expansion. Our model is built around a small, high-powered team of relationship-driven executives, giving you access to larger, higher-producing broker accounts and the ability to earn more with uncapped potential. Join a credit union that combines competitive products, industry-leading service, and a culture focused on making home equity easy. Interested candidates should contact Bob Marseilles, VP, Wholesale Mortgage Lending or apply directly at this link.”

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking for a diverse product group to create lasting client, Realtor and builder relationships. At Banner you have Portfolio lending, Construction to Perm financing, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, and USDA along with equity products for HELOC, bridge financing and Lot Loans to serve your clients. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking to create or build onto their career with support for homebuyer education, CRA lending (state bond and Portfolio) as well as access to internal and external DPA to add value to your eligible clients and make more loans possible. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

Jim Finucane on why radius is the team that LOs deserve: “I joined radius because they don’t just talk about making mortgages better, they actually do it. This is a team that’s built for collaboration, real results, and winning in any market. And when you work with people who are dialed in and engaged, the work just feels different. If you’re looking for a fresh perspective and a team that actually listens, let’s chat. The right conversations lead to the best opportunities. Jim Finucane, SVP of Sales, radius financial group inc.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Services, products, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

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LIVE WEBINAR: Mortgage Complaints: Connecting the Dots! Top of Form Complaints are the mortgage industry’s early warning system and ignoring them can be costly. When mishandled, they don’t just invite regulatory scrutiny; they erode borrower trust and expose deeper operational flaws. Yet many lenders still struggle with siloed data, inconsistent tracking, and limited visibility into complaint trends. During this webinar, Ncontracts explores what recent CFPB findings reveal about borrower frustrations, why complaint data is so difficult to analyze, and how small oversights can snowball into reputational or legal risks. Attendees will gain practical strategies for identifying red flags early, connecting patterns across systems, and turning complaint management into a proactive compliance advantage. Bottom line: complaints aren’t paperwork… they’re insight. Register now to learn how to turn complaints into clarity and strengthen your mortgage compliance program.

Credit card APRs top 28 percent and personal loans average over 12 percent, but homeowners don’t have to feel the squeeze. The average homeowner has nearly $200,000 in tappable equity available to wipe out high-interest debt. Enter Intellidebt, Figure’s debt consolidation tool that helps LOs and lenders better serve borrowers right now. Embedded within the HELOC application, borrowers can use loan proceeds to pay off selected high-interest debts (including credit cards, personal, auto loans, and more). Figure facilitates payment directly to creditors, helping borrowers consolidate on average $26K and raising FICO scores by 28 points. For homeowners without a mortgage, a first lien HELOC can replace scattered high-interest debts with a single, lower-interest payment. By streamlining debt payoff and improving DTI and CLTV profiles, Intellidebt helps borrowers qualify for larger loans and enables LOs to address their clients’ needs and increase funded volume with less friction, unlocking deeper pipelines and faster production. Figure’s Intellidebt can lift your team’s volume. Reach out to partners@figure.com.

Returning from MBA's Annual Convention and Expo, one thing was clear to Wes Horbatuck, SVP of Marketing at Dark Matter Technologies: "Optimism is back, Baby!” In his latest blog, Horbatuck reflects on the energy that filled every hallway, suite and partner event, and the real conversations happening just about everywhere. The industry isn’t just talking about innovation anymore, it’s building it. Collaboration is reshaping how lenders and tech providers are moving forward together, with proof of value taking priority over promises. From automation and orchestration to AI and data-driven workflows, the focus is on empowering people, scaling smartly, and staying flexible as the market evolves. Dark Matter is fueled by this momentum and partnerships and ready to drive this next wave of mortgage technology. For more on Wes’s post-Annual thoughts, tune in to the 2025 Clip Show, part of his ongoing podcast series.

Ignite Your Brand: Open House Toolkits, hosted by Orion Lending, is your guide to powering up your Realtor partnerships with STAR Marketing Studio! Join us on November 13, at 9:30 AM PT for a hands-on training session where you’ll learn how to create professional, fully branded marketing pieces, from flyers and brochures to social posts and postcards, that make a lasting impression. Discover how to tap into MLS listing integration to auto-fill property details, use target direct mail mapping to reach the right neighborhoods, generate eye-catching sign riders that drive traffic, and keep your marketing running effortlessly with automated social posting and print-ready designs. This training goes beyond convenience. It’s about empowering you to deliver polished, value-adding materials that strengthen your realtor partnerships and help your referral partners win more business. Reserve your spot today for Ignite Your Brand: Open House Toolkit today!

Smarter Tax Servicing Starts Here! LERETA’s Total Tax Solutions® offers mortgage servicers a smarter, more efficient way to manage property tax workflows. This innovative platform integrates with servicing systems to reduce risk, lower costs, and improve the borrower experience. With five comprehensive modules, including pre-cycle audits, payment processing, and delinquency tracking, servicers gain full transparency and control across the tax servicing lifecycle. Learn more about how LERETA is helping servicers streamline operations and deliver better outcomes. lereta.com/total-tax-solutions.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Curinos weighs in on recent app activity

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According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, October 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 6 percent YoY and increased 16 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in October 2025 was 6.29, 21-basis-points lower than September 2025 and 11-basis-points higher than the same month last year.

Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in October 2025 was 6.29, 21-basis-points lower than September 2025 and 11-basis-points higher than the same month last year. Purchase rates were 18-basis-points lower MoM and 9-basis-points higher YoY, while refinance rates were 28-basis-points lower MoM and 15-basis-points higher YoY. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures, and drills into this data further here.

In-person events to wrap up 2025 and head into 2026

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For the most part, mortgage conferences take a breather from November through January, and things kick back up again in February. Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

The MA Mortgage Bankers Foundation (MMBF) is the charitable arm of the MMBA and is hosting its first annual Gala at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA on November 12th. The event will be kicked off with a meet & greet with 3X Super Bowl Champion Joe Andruzzi and be followed by 2025 Grant Recipients who are working to improve financial literacy and affordable homeownership in Massachusetts.

If CRA tickles your fancy, the CRA & Fair Lending Colloquium is November 16-19 in Los Angeles, California. “Join us for the 29th CRA & Fair Lending Colloquium, the ultimate event for compliance professionals and regulators.”

On November 19th the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis will have a fine luncheon with a discussion of industry trends.

November 19-21, in Phoenix, Arizona, the MBA is having its Accounting and Financial Management Conference, the premier annual gathering for accountants and financial managers in single-family and commercial/multifamily real estate finance.

On November 20th, the Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City will have its annual BBQ/Thanksgiving event! Watch for sign-ups.

The MBA is putting on the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference on Amelia Island, Florida February 2-4. “An intimate gathering designed exclusively for IMB leaders from companies of all sizes and business models.”

MCT’s Exchange 2026, MCT’s client conference, is taking place February 12-13 at the InterContinental San Diego. As the Currents of Capital reshape the secondary mortgage market, this premier client conference will help attendees harness the changing flow of opportunity. Immerse in expert market analysis, innovative technology announcements, and collaborative roundtables with industry peers. Attendees can also explore learning tracks tailored to today’s evolving landscape, and connect with lenders, investors, and partners from across the country. From insightful sessions to vibrant networking events, MCT Exchange 2026 is where the future of mortgage capital markets converges.

The TMBA offers up the Southern Secondary Market Conference, February 22–24, 2026, at the Westin Houston Memorial City in Houston, TX.

The Optimal Blue Summit is taking place February 23 – 25 at Talking Stick Resort and Conference Center in Scottsdale, Arizona. From expert-led sessions and hands-on tech showcases to curated networking with capital markets leaders, every element of the Summit is designed to give attendees a competitive edge and help them maximize profitability. Early bird registration is available for just $199. Secure your ticket today and be first to experience an event where proven mortgage expertise meets modern innovation to shape what's next.

NAMMBA’s OPSCON 2026 is a conference built specifically for underwriting and operations professionals in the mortgage industry. In Dallas, Irvine, and Orlando, the event delivers 1.5 days of high-impact keynotes, interactive breakout sessions, and live technology demonstrations. The agenda focuses on operational excellence, workflow automation, compliance, and leadership strategies. Designed to bring together leaders, innovators, and practitioners, OPSCON 2026 is where mortgage operations teams connect, collaborate, and shape the future of efficiency in housing finance.

Registration for ICE Experience 2026 is now open for ICE clients. Join thousands of mortgage professionals for three days of learning, networking and innovation at the Wynn Las Vegas, March 16–18, 2026. Register now to take advantage of the lowest rates of the year: super early bird pricing is just $995, and if you bring a team of four or more, the rate drops to $745 per person. This year features a new format for pre-conference training with smaller classes and more hands-on learning, plus four focused session tracks designed around ICE solutions and the same high-quality networking events you love. ICE Experience is where ideas spark, connections grow and innovation happens here.

The Texas MBA’s 110th Annual Convention is April 26-28 at the Marriott Austin Downtown, in Austin, Texas: 110th Annual Convention.

Capital markets: will end of shutdown raise rates?

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Given the employment picture and the continued shutdown, you’d think that rates would be lower. But “progress” in ending it has nudged rates higher. It’s almost as if some politicians want a slow economy so rates will go down. But inflation is still out there, and the fear of it from fixed-income investors is causing caution.

As we begin this week awaiting word on when the government shutdown will end, let's briefly look back to last week. It was a turbulent week in markets last week, underscoring deepening cracks in the economy as middling second-tier jobs data and a shockingly weak University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reignited worries about growth.

The labor market remains stagnant (hiring is soft, but layoffs limited) but mounting cost pressures and tariff uncertainty are adding to the threat of job cuts. Sentiment has sunk near historic lows, with inflation, unemployment, mass firings, and a record government shutdown sapping confidence ahead of the holidays. The UMich index on Friday dropped to just above its all-time nadir, signaling pervasive unease that is being amplified by record-low perceptions of current conditions and rising expectations of future job losses, even as short-term inflation fears ease slightly.

Although the official October jobs report was not released due to the government shutdown, alternative data sources indicate that payroll employment likely declined as federal job losses outweighed weak private hiring, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. ADP estimated a modest 42k increase in private payrolls, driven by gains in health care, financial services, and transportation, but small firms continued to shed workers.

Revelio Labs similarly showed a net loss of 9k jobs, with government employment down sharply and private gains limited to a few sectors. Job openings have fallen steadily, layoffs are rising, and year-to-date job cut announcements are up 65 percent from 2024. While initial jobless claims remain low, consumer surveys and nowcasts suggest unemployment is drifting higher. Economists expect some recovery once the shutdown ends, but the overall weakness in hiring and rising layoff trends will push the Federal Reserve toward another rate cut at its next meeting.

October’s prepayment report showed a sharp rebound in refinancing activity, with Fannie Mae 30-year prepayment speeds surging 32 percent from September to 10.5 CPR, the fastest pace since May 2022, as falling mortgage rates reignited borrower incentives. Roughly 14 percent of loans now carry at least a 50-basis-point refinance benefit, and higher-coupon pools (5.5 percent to 7.5 percent) led the surge with speed increases of 27 percent to 68 percent. Ginnie Mae II 30-year speeds rose similarly, up 31 percent to 14.4 CPR, also their fastest since mid-2022. Optimal Blue data showed average 30-year conventional, VA, and FHA rates slipping to 6.16 percent, 5.67 percent, and 6.04 percent, respectively, near their lowest since early October 2024. With more than 13 percent of conventional and 15 percent of government borrowers now in the money to refinance, lenders are expected to capitalize on the momentum while rate incentives remain favorable.

It’s a light week on the economic calendar, with just the NFIB optimism index for October due out tomorrow when bond markets are closed for Veterans Day, and the October Treasury statement on Thursday. Depending on the status of the government shutdown, we may receive jobless claims and CPI for October on Thursday, and PPI, retail sales, and business inventories on Friday. Today does include a lot of Treasury supply, with the quarterly refunding getting underway with $58 billion 3-year notes. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices worse about .125 from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.59, and the 10-year yielding 4.13 after closing last week at 4.09.

I was at Denny’s over the weekend, and in the booth behind me were two elderly gentlemen.

“Cars these days have too many gadgets. I tried to reverse it, and it played a video of someone being run over.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)