10.29.25 Ongoing Shutdown; DaylightAML's Bob Simpson on Assumable Mortgages; Fed Decision Day

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at just what could end the government shutdown. Plus, Robbie sits down with DaylightAML’s Bob Simpson for a discussion on the growing debate around making Agency loans assumable: examining whether such a move could unlock housing market liquidity or create new pricing and equity challenges, how it might impact lenders, investors, and borrowers, and what lessons policymakers can draw from past market interventions. And we close by looking ahead to today's Fed decision.

Today's podcast is brought to you by Optimal Blue, the only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability, helping lenders of all sizes operate more efficiently, manage risk more effectively, and maximize results.

Transcript

"The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would tax Botox. When Botox users heard this, they were horrified. Well, I think they were horrified. It's difficult to tell." Is anyone motivated to end the government shutdown? I mean, really motivated? One side sticking to their guns about healthcare, the other side is fine with slowing down the economy to move rates lower. And now we have the expiration of SNAP benefits. The impact on the overall economy seems to be minimal, although we (including the Fed) aren’t receiving the usual stream of government economic data, although we are seeing the labor market slow, and the economy will follow. We do know that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.19 percent last week, the best rate borrowers have seen in three years outside brief dips in 2024. Meanwhile, lenders who have an eye on the future are constantly watching the cost per loan. What are you trying to do to improve your pull through? After all, higher pull through automatically lowers your cost per funded loan. Lenders continue to want to offer all products to any borrower that walks through the door, or calls. So non-Agency, home equity, and adjustable-rate mortgages are all the rage. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Optimal Blue, the only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability, helping lenders of all sizes operate more efficiently, manage risk more effectively, and maximize results. Today’s has an interview with DaylightAML’s Bob Simpson on the growing debate around making Agency loans assumable: examining whether such a move could unlock housing market liquidity or create new pricing and equity challenges, how it might impact lenders, investors, and borrowers, and what lessons policymakers can draw from past market interventions.)

Employment

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First Tech Federal Credit Union is expanding its Wholesale Home Equity division and hiring Senior Account Executives and a Wholesale Sales Manager to help drive national growth. Our model is built around a small, high-powered team of relationship-driven business development executives, giving you the ability to build a larger book, earn more, and work directly with top-producing broker partners. Join a forward-thinking credit union offering competitive products, exceptional service, and a culture that makes home equity easy. Interested candidates should contact Bob Marseilles, VP, Wholesale Mortgage Lending or click here to apply.

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Services, products, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

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In a market where affordability remains under pressure, Down Payment Resource (DPR), the industry’s original authority on all things down payment assistance (DPA), continues to provide lenders with software tools and DPA data you can trust (updated monthly!). According to DPR’s Q3 2025 Homeownership Program Index (HPI), a record 2,624 homebuyer assistance programs are available nationwide, a 3 percent quarterly increase. The report also found the number of program providers rose to 1,360, with 20 new agencies being added during Q3 2025. With an average benefit of $18,000, DPA remains one of the most effective tools for helping lenders qualify more mortgage-ready buyers. Trusted by seven of the top 25 lenders, two leading listing sites and more than 600,000 agents, DPR is the OG of DPA, an independent, verified source for real-time DPA insights. View DPR’s Q3 HPI here or request a demo.

Credit unions working to compete with larger lenders will want to tune in for this live webinar. LenderLogix CEO Patrick O’Brien will moderate a conversation with Telhio Credit Union Loan Officer Allie Hager and Realtor Kelly Hamilton of Realty Forward on how credit unions are redefining the borrower experience through faster communication and better accessibility. The session will explore how modern technology, collaboration, and after-hours responsiveness help credit unions strengthen realtor relationships and close more loans. The webinar takes place Tuesday, November 18 at 1 PM ET: register here!

Depending on how it's used, AI can either amplify or erode trust. For financial institutions, generic platforms risk creating impersonal, compliance-troubled experiences, while hyper-specialized tools often leave customers frustrated at their limits. The path forward is using AI to scale authentic, brand-consistent interactions, not replace them. AI can handle repetitive tasks, quickly compile data insights, and free human teams to focus on building genuine connections. The key is aligning AI with your brand, integrating it at the core of your CX systems, and giving it the right input to succeed. The payoff? Experiences that feel more personal, not less, all delivered at scale. Total Expert is helping marketing leaders use AI to strengthen trust and authenticity. Read more on Authenticity at Scale: Using AI to Deliver Genuine Customer Experiences.

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The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Correspondent and wholesale product news

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PHH Mortgage just launched its new non-QM product suite, FlexIQ. FlexIQ offers flexible underwriting and intelligent mortgage solutions in three product categories: Full Doc, Alt Doc, and DSCR. "FlexIQ is our new proprietary product with a service-first approach that includes a single standard for underwriting across multiple product types, a dedicated support desk, and necessary training, as well as other helpful resources,” said Andy Peach, EVP and Chief Lending Officer. “We are excited to launch FlexIQ, which underscores our commitment to being a trusted partner by continuing to provide value-added products to our clients and the customers they serve,” added Rich Bradfield, EVP and Chief Growth Officer. For more information https://correspondent.phhmortgage.com/correspondent-products/non-qm

Want to help your borrowers buy their next home first with $0 down and make cash-like offers that win? Flyhomes Buy Before You Sell with a Cash Offer is your innovative purchase bridge solution, allowing borrowers to unlock equity from both their current and future homes. It offers up to 105% LTV with no contingencies and no asset liquidation required. Because fees are based on the loan amount, not the home sale price, borrowers can save more compared to other bridge loan options. Bonus: Now through Dec. 31, 1st lien loans get a reduced 1% origination fee plus an extra 50 bps off the interest rate on all bridge loans locked by Oct. 31. Over the past 10 years, Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers move into their next home. On average, LOs close 1.2 more loans per month with Buy Before You Sell, now available nationwide. Book a call today to learn more or sign up for the weekly open house for a live walkthrough and Q&A.

“Does a 3-year amortization SCARE you? It should! The whole point of a line of credit is to have the funds available when your borrowers need them. At Symmetry, we now offer longer draw periods so you can tailor fit our HELOC to meet your borrower’s needs. Our five-year interest only draw period is a two-way product during the first 5 years with unlimited payback/redraws during this time. No additional add to margin and a 25-year amortization after the draw period. Our ten-year interest only draw period is a two-way product during the first 10 years with unlimited payback/redraws during this time. We have a.25% addition to margin 20-year amortization after the draw period. Losing access too soon can be scary… choose Symmetry Lending and give your borrower what they really need! Symmetry Lending.

“Rebrand announcement: AFR is now eLEND! We’re excited to announce that AFR has officially rebranded under one unified identity: eLEND: reflecting our modern, tech-forward approach to mortgage lending and our recommitment to brokers, correspondent lenders, and their clients. Since our acquisition in February 2024, we’ve been moving full speed to enhance the mortgage experience by streamlining processes, expanding product offerings, and delivering innovative digital tools to make lending faster, smarter, and simpler. What’s new: AFR Wholesale is now eLEND TPO, built specifically for brokers and correspondent lenders to provide the programs, tools, and support needed to succeed in today’s market. What’s staying the same: Our trusted leadership, service-first values, competitive programs, and dedicated support remain unchanged. This rebrand is more than a new name, it’s a bold step forward designed for the future of mortgage lending. Visit elendtpo.com, 1-800-375-6071 or sales@elend.com. (NMLS 2826) Not yet a client – join the journey.”

Capital markets: the shutdown continues to slow the economy

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Fannie reported its net income this morning: its 31st consecutive quarterly profit. Congratulations… there’s aren’t too many companies in residential lending who can say that. Fannie clocked in with $3.9 billion: not chump change.

While the financial press is focused on the government shutdown’s cutting off SNAP benefits, elsewhere it’s the Fed, the Fed, the Fed…While a 25-basis points rate cut is a foregone outcome at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting later today, the statement is expected to signal a “dovish cut,” keeping the door open for another rate reduction in December amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Chair Powell may attempt to moderate that dovish tone in his press conference, and some officials (including Governor Waller) have urged caution in cutting, citing mixed economic signals and complications from the government shutdown that have delayed key data.

Your takeaway? Although the lack of fresh information engenders reason for a more measured approach, the broader economic trajectory suggests the Fed is unlikely to halt its easing cycle at this point.

We learned yesterday that U.S. consumer confidence declined for the third straight month in October, hitting its lowest level since April, as Americans grew more pessimistic about the economy’s direction amid slowing job growth and lingering inflation. The Conference Board’s expectations index dropped to the weakest level since June, reflecting rising anxiety over employment prospects and income stability, even as current conditions held up modestly.

Ongoing concerns about inflation (which remains elevated at 3 percent, well above the Fed’s target) and uncertainty stemming from trade tensions and policy instability have further dampened sentiment. Overall, consumers appear increasingly wary about the near-term outlook, with many fearing a recession may already be underway.

While the main headline yesterday was that the bond market held up well through an underwhelming $44 billion 7-year note sale that made for a poor conclusion to this week's note offering slate, today’s headline will obviously come from the FOMC decision, with the statement due at 2:00pm ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. With a 25-basis points rate cut to a target range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent a foregone conclusion, the market will be looking for clues regarding the Fed’s thinking on the December meeting, where odds are currently around 86 percent for another 25-basis points rate cut. The economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications increasing 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24.

Later today brings pending home sales for September, $30 billion new 2-year FRNs, and the latest decision from the Bank of Canada, where a 25-basis points cut in the target rate is also expected. We begin Fed decision day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.50, and the 10-year yielding 3.99 after closing yesterday at 3.98 percent.

Why Pumpkins Are Better Than Men

1. Every year you get a brand-new crop to choose from.

2. No matter what your mood is, pumpkins are always ready to greet you with a smile.

3. One usually makes a better pie.

4. They are always on the doorstep there waiting for you!

5. If you don’t like the way he looks, you just carve up another face.

6. If he starts smelling up your place, you can just throw him out.

7. From the start you know a pumpkin has an empty, mush-filled head to begin with.

8. A pumpkin is turned on (lit up) only when you want him to be.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)