10.20.25 MBA Annual Chatter; Eris Innovations' Geoff Sharp on SOFR Hedging; Economic Releases

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we review just what people are talking about in the halls of MBA Annual. Plus, Robbie sits down with Geoff Sharp at Eris Innovations, the creators of CME’s Eris SOFR Swap futures, to discuss on the growing need for SOFR-based cash flow hedging solutions. And we close by looking at what economic releases are due out this week despite the government shutdown.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

Transcript

“Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” Here at the “MBA Annual,” the puns may not be flying, but there is news bouncing off the walls, some of it learned just by chatting in the hallways. (And there is plenty of time spent walking through the convention center… I need a Segway!) The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026 from $2.0 trillion expected in 2025. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 7.7 percent to $1.46 trillion next year and refinance originations are expected to increase 9.2 percent to $737 billion. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase 7.6 percent to 5.8 million loans in 2026 from 5.4 million loans expected in 2025. Since the boom 2020-2021 years, lenders not only laid off tens of thousands, but the successful ones have been implementing technology, operational efficiency, and management improvement. Are you ready for a pickup? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Hear an interview with Geoff Sharp at Eris Innovations, the creators of CME’s Eris SOFR Swap futures, on the growing need for SOFR-based cash flow hedging solutions.)

Employment & transitions & a retirement

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In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking for a diverse product group to create lasting client, Realtor and builder relationships. At Banner you have Portfolio lending, Construction to Perm financing, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, and USDA along with equity products for HELOC, bridge financing and Lot Loans to serve your clients. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking to create or build onto their career with support for homebuyer education, CRA lending (state bond and Portfolio) as well as access to internal and external DPA to add value to your eligible clients and make more loans possible. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

American Pacific Mortgage (APM) announced that after more than two decades of service, Chairman and former President and CEO Bill Lowman will retire later this month, but remain on APM’s Board of Directors. Current CEO Ned Payant will move into the role of Chairman of the Board, and stepping into the role of chief executive officer is Dustin Sheppard. A well-deserved congratulations to all involved!

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Services, products, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

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“Ready to move your business forward? Whether you’re transitioning from broker to banker or scaling your current operations, FirstFunding is ready to support your growth. We offer warehouse funding facilities tailored to various origination types, including non-delegated, correspondent, and wholesale/TPO. Our lock strategies go beyond best efforts, and we provide competitive advance rates for products like non-QM and closed end second liens. You benefit from secure, proprietary, browser-based technology and real-time reporting, strategic partnerships to fuel expansion, and application-to-approval in just days. With FirstFunding, you get more than capital – you get a partner committed to your ongoing success. Take the next step in your lending journey with the FirstFunding advantage. Contact us.”

Mortgage Lending Regulatory Update 2025: Compliance, Cyber, and AI Updates! Top of Form Regulatory change is hitting mortgage lending on many fronts, from the CFPB's latest agenda to Fannie Mae's new cybersecurity requirements to an influx of evolving state regulations. Staying compliant requires financial institutions (FIs) to stay updated on the latest developments. To help you navigate the changing regulatory landscape, Ncontracts’ compiled the latest must-know updates for mortgage lenders. Read it now. For a deeper dive into these topics, watch Ncontracts’ recent webinar. 

“If you used OnCourse or one of ‘the other guys’ for continuing education last year, don't make the same mistake twice! We're so confident you'll stick with Diehl that we'll give you 50 percent off all your 2025 NMLS continuing education. Built by mortgage professionals with decades of experience in lending compliance and daily operations, our real-world knowledge makes us exceptional educators who create fast, affordable, and way less terrible CE you'll maybe actually want to take. Simply fill out the form, and BAM, you're in!”

SAGENT BRINGS ICONIC ENERGY TO MBA ANNUAL 2025. Team Sagent is on the ground in Vegas for MBA Annual, and as always, they're bringing an experience that’s all about innovation + fun. Stop by their booth (#606) to shop talk about Dara, Sagent’s next-gen mortgage servicing platform built for real-time performance and homeowner-first engagement. Attendees can get an up-close look at how Dara unifies data and workflows across the servicing lifecycle. Then, between sessions, visitors can join in on mortgage/pop culture trivia, a Coca-Cola pick-me-up (in a Sagent branded glass), and connect with the team to talk about strategy, tech, and transformation. This year’s theme (“Iconic Servicing, Iconic Innovation”) captures Sagent’s focus on reimagining how servicers engage borrowers and modernize operations for the road ahead. If you’re at MBA, make Sagent’s booth your first stop.

MortgageFlex Unveils Next-Generation Cloud-Native Loan Origination System: LoanQuest MortgageFlex, a leader in mortgage technology for over four decades, proudly announces the launch of its groundbreaking cloud-native Loan Origination System (LOS), LoanQuest. This innovative platform marks a new era for lenders, delivering unparalleled flexibility, scalability, and automation—all powered by a modern cloud infrastructure. Building on 40 years of industry expertise, LoanQuest redefines the origination experience. The platform integrates advanced features and proven knowledge from previous generations, offering lenders a cost-effective and highly configurable solution. With LoanQuest, institutions can tailor workflows, AI Tools, boost staff performance, and streamline compliance with evolving regulations. MortgageFlex is showcasing LoanQuest, receiving enthusiastic feedback from lenders eager to embrace digital transformation. The platform’s seamless integration with LoanQuest Servicing and third-party tools positions MortgageFlex at the forefront of mortgage innovation. MortgageFlex invites lenders to discover the future of origination, where flexibility meets innovation. Contact John McCrea for a demo.

Wholesale and correspondent products

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“The DSCR market is booming… and lenders who can close quickly have the edge. This January alone, over $2B in DSCR loans were originated, but most of these loans took weeks to close with legacy LOS systems and manual underwriting. Enter Figure. We built an end-to-end DSCR origination platform designed for speed and scale. Determine eligibility in minutes, close in as few as 5 days, and fund up to $1M with a fully digital process. Figure’s AI powers income and asset verification. Plus, no underwriters, no appraisals under $400K, and no title insurance. Just lightning-fast enablement and efficiency. DSCR is no longer a niche product… it’s your competitive edge. And Figure’s DSCR refi solution delivers exactly that. Give your borrowers (and loan officers) a modern lending experience that streamlines the process and elevates your brand. Interested in offering the fastest-growing product in real estate lending? Our partnerships team is ready to connect with you on how you can lead this market transformation. Start the conversation here.”

When it comes to Non-QM, LoanStream gives you the power of choice! LoanStream offers Bank Statements with a 12 Mo. Bank Statement & P&L program where you can use 100% of deposits on personal bank statements and use up to 85% of deposits on Business Statements with loan amounts up to $4 million and a Min FICO of 600! Plus, GET MORE BUSINESS IN THE DOOR with October Specials through 10/31/25: Non-QM Pricing Improvement (includes DSCR 5-8 unit), 85 BPS (with Select) or 35 BPS (without) ON ALL Non-QM Purchases, 75 BPS (with Select) or 25 BPS (without) on all Cash-Out and R/T Refi AND 15 BPS on Conventional Non-Select, 45 BPS (with Select) or 15 BPS (without) on FHA/VA loans and 35 BPS on FHA/VA with 600 – 679 FICOs. Contact your AE or visit our website for details.

“Since AFR’s acquisition in February 2024, we’ve had the pedal to the metal, focused on enhancing the experience for brokers and clients every step of the way. Innovation, efficiency, and partnership have been our driving forces, and we’ve been hard at work behind the scenes to build the next chapter of mortgage lending. Get ready: AIME FUSE 2025 is taking over Nashville, October 23–25! Our team will be ready to connect, collaborate, and share some very Royal information, that’s set to make waves in the broker community. Just like our industry, we believe in change, evolution, and growth. This year, we’re unveiling something bold, modern, and built for the future of lending; A next chapter designed to elevate the broker experience, simplify processes, and bring fresh innovation. You won’t want to miss it. See you in Nashville!

Visit afrwholesale.com, 1-800-375-6071 or sales@afrwholesale.com. (NMLS 2826) Not a client? Join the journey.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Industry chatter from the hallways

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Credit bureau TransUnion (one of the three owners of VantageScore, along with Experian and Equifax) has followed its peers in changing its prices for mortgage lenders that purchase VantageScore 4.0, responding to Fair Isaac Corp.’s latest pricing move. The entire credit situation is muddied, to use a polite term, as VantageScore isn’t “live” in the sense that they haven’t figured out all the integrations. Saying it is one thing, implementing it all is another.

In Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae news, while agency products are going away from the Agencies and into private label securities, government officials continue to assure the MBA that any move away from conservatorship should, and will, minimize any increase to mortgage rates. Freddie, on its part, is making progress on the VantageScore and FICO Classic rollout.

All three entities are firing on all cylinders in terms of reporting. Freddie introduced its “Refi Transition Report.” Fannie, of course, has its own index. Both are “looking at” the concentration of servicing in non-depository institutions. Both F&F have “robust” counter-party risk management teams. Despite some recent agency production entering the private label securities market, both F&F want to compete on product and issuance. The FHFA has its own set of reports.

Call it the FHFA or “U.S. Federal Housing,” the group is asking the public for feedback on its proposed Strategic Plan for FY 2026–2030. (One person quipped to me, “We don’t know what’s happening five days from now, and they’re looking out five years from now?”) The new Plan proposes three strategic goals for the Agency: responsibly oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, supervise the Federal Home Loan Bank System, and efficiently manage U.S. Federal Housing Operations. Input on the Plan is due by November 5, 2025.

Capital markets: rates quiet while news (above) swirls

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AGNC Investment Corp. announced the launch of a new suite of fixed income indices, developed in collaboration with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), to track the performance of current coupon Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The indices include the AGNC ICE UMBS 30-Year and 15-Year Current Coupon Indices, which cover fixed-rate MBS issued under the UMBS program by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the AGNC ICE GNMA 30-Year Current Coupon Index, which tracks MBS guaranteed by Ginnie Mae. According to AGNC EVP Sean Reid, these indices aim to enhance market transparency by offering performance benchmarks for the most liquid segments of the Agency MBS market.

The backlog of unreleased economic data continues to grow as the federal government shutdown approaches week three. In addition to September’s delayed reports, the shutdown is likely to affect data collection for October, potentially impacting both the completeness of the data and the timing of its release. As for data that was released last week, the NAHB Housing Market Index improved in October to 37, as lower mortgage rates boosted builder sentiment. However, the index remains well below the 2015-2019 average as builders remain fairly pessimistic about current market conditions.

Last week also featured speeches from a number of Fed officials, most notably FOMC Chair Powell, who indicated the Fed’s quantitative easing cycle may be coming to an end. Powell and Fed Governor Christopher Waller both reaffirmed their concerns regarding labor market conditions and indicated further monetary policy easing could be appropriate at upcoming meetings. The markets are pricing in 25 basis-point rate cuts following each of the two remaining FOMC meetings of 2025. However, given the backlog of economic data that might be received prior to December’s meeting, if there were to be a pivot from the Committee, it would likely occur at that time.

Turning to economic data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release consumer price index (CPI) figures for September on Friday for Social Security benefit purposes, but it will also provide information to the Fed ahead of the October 28-29 monetary policy meeting. The agency has been minimally staffed due to the government shutdown. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on trade developments between the U.S. and China, as the world's two largest economies spar over the Asian nation's strict rare earth export controls.

The week gets off to a quiet start with just some short-duration Treasury auctions today. Economic releases over the remainder of the week include Philly Fed services for October, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, existing home sales for September, Kansas City Fed manufacturing, S&P Global Markets PMI flashes for October, and final October consumer sentiment. We begin MBA Annual week with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.47, and the 10-year yielding 4.01 after closing last week at 4.01 percent.

Do Las Vegas churches accept gambling chips?

This may come as a surprise to those of you not living in Las Vegas, but there are more Catholic churches than casinos.

Not surprisingly, some worshipers at Sunday services will give casino chips rather than cash when the basket is passed.

Since they get chips from many different casinos, the churches have devised a method to collect the offerings.

The churches send all their collected chips to a nearby Franciscan monastery for sorting and then the chips are taken to the casinos of origin and cashed in.

This is done by the chip monks.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “No Lender Wants a Government Shutdown, but Just in Case…”. The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)