9.8.25 Jobs Report Takeaways; PBG's Marty Green on FOMC Happenings; CPI and PPI Incoming

The Chrisman Commentary Daily Mortgage News Podcast delivers timely insights for mortgage lenders, loan officers, capital markets professionals, and anyone curious about the mortgage and housing industry. Hosted by industry expert Robbie Chrisman, each weekday episode breaks down mortgage rates, lending news, housing market trends, capital markets activity, and regulatory updates with insightful analysis, expert perspectives, and conversations with top professionals from across the mortgage industry. Stay informed, gain actionable insights, and keep up with developments in mortgage banking and housing finance. Learn more at www.chrismancommentary.com.

In today’s episode, we go through takeaways from August's weak payrolls report. Plus, Robbie sits down with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green on Fed Governor Cook’s timeline for recourse in the courts over her recent firing and various other political happenings as we approach next week’s FOMC meeting. And we close by looking ahead to this week's inflation reports.

Sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions.

Transcript

“When the economy is good, people drink. When the economy is bad, people drink. The moral? Invest in alcohol.” Here in Boise at the PNMLC, the comments about Friday’s jobs data (showing a worsening employment picture) and economy ranged from, “It’s about time we have accurate numbers that we can rely upon” to “The Trump Administration is still blaming the people compiling the numbers as opposed to the actual policies… like if you had an NFL owner who just lost big and instead of changing the quarterback or firing the coach, they axed the scoreboard operator.” “Tech” is also a discussion topic, and I received this note. “We’re a nationwide lender, and grown, and have begun the hunt for a new Point of Sale system. Any suggestions?” It depends on your channels, size, and needs (present and future), but a solid place to start is at this Marketplace, a free centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green on Fed Governor Cook’s timeline for recourse in the courts over her recent firing and various other political happenings as we approach next week’s FOMC meeting.)

Employment; lender wanted; recruiting firm

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JazzX, an AI pioneering technology firm, is searching for a Director of Mortgage Solution Sales. “This person will lead enterprise sales for our cutting-edge platform for the mortgage origination industry and be responsible for driving net new revenue by closing large, strategic accounts with top mortgage originators, lenders, and financial institutions. The ideal candidate has a proven track record of selling enterprise SaaS solutions into the mortgage or broader financial services space, excelling in consultative, high-value deal environments. This is a quota-carrying role with a strong focus on building executive relationships, navigating complex buying cycles, and closing 3–4 transformative deals annually. JazzX is backed by the SAI Group, a private investment firm that has committed $1 billion to incubate and scale revolutionary AI-powered enterprise software application companies.” Please contact Pankaj Chugh for a full job description & responsibilities or to send a confidential resume.

“Still rolling the dice on the job boards? While there can be some occasional successes, it’s a free-for-all since anyone (qualified or not) is able to apply to any posting, frustrating Hiring Managers and HR teams as they sift through countless resumes, and applicants that can see that hundreds have already applied within hours of the posting going live. At Pezian Search Group we have an established network of tens of thousands of candidates throughout the U.S. and screen our candidates thoroughly prior to sharing them with our Clients. This commitment to quality candidates versus quantity results in less frustration for Candidates, and less wasted time for Hiring Managers all while offering a satisfaction guarantee. Hiring Managers and Candidates can connect with us on LinkedIn and reach out directly at info@peziansearchgroup.com to learn why we’ve been a significant value add for organizations throughout the U.S.”

“A group of investors is seeking a small Independent Mortgage Bank to execute a full stock acquisition, with goals to scale it across all 50 states. There is no minimum production size, but the company must have a clean trailing history with good relationships with regulatory authorities and warehouse banks. We will talk to 3rd party recruiters or to owners directly. The seller is welcome to remain (or not) post-acquisition; it is entirely up to the seller.” Lenders, for any serious inquiries, principals only, please send me an email for forwarding.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Company sponsored webinars, soup to nuts

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Wholesale lending company Flyhomes is hosting a live webinar on Sep 10 on how Buy Before You Sell with Flyhomes Cash Offer can help your borrowers win their next home with as little as $0 down, before selling their current one. This purchase bridge loan helps your borrowers: 1) Make cash-like offers and close in as little as 10 days; 2) Buy with $0 down, even covering up to 5 percent closing costs by unlocking equity from both your borrower’s current and future homes; 3) Boost loan amounts using home equity, 401(k), or stocks, without selling upfront. Bonus: No monthly payments required until the departing home is sold. Interest accrues and pays off at closing, so your clients move forward without stress. Save your spot now or book a call today to learn more. Over the past 10 years, Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers move into their next home. On average, LOs close 1.2 more loans per month with Buy Before You Sell, now available nationwide.

Ready to build your brand without the hassle? Join Orion’s exclusive Ignite Your Brand: Hands-Off Social Media training, where brokers will learn how to effortlessly schedule and publish engaging mortgage-focused social posts using the Star Marketing Studio. Maintain consistent visibility, boost referrals, and stay top of mind, even during your busiest closings. Let STAR Marketing Studio do the heavy lifting so you can focus on closing more. Register now for the session on 9/11 at 9 AM PT!

Is your hedging strategy delivering the results you need or just keeping pace? At Optimal Blue, our hedging and trading experts bring deep market insight and hands-on support to help you navigate risk, act with precision, and stay ahead of market shifts. When paired with CompassEdge, our advanced hedging and loan trading platform, you gain more than just technology. You get a strategy that adapts in real time, execution that moves at market speed, and a team that’s always in your corner. Whether you’re looking for full-service support or just a second set of eyes, we deliver measurable value where it counts: your bottom line. Missed our recent webinar? Catch the recording of “Maximize Profitability With Smarter Hedging & Trading Support” and see how the right people and platform can drive measurable results. Access the replay now and start building a strategy that works harder for you. 

FirstClose promoted Andria Lightfoot to Vice President of Client Success. A 2022 HousingWire Woman of Influence with more than 20 years in mortgage technology, Lightfoot now leads implementation and customer success strategy. She is recognized for scaling eClosing adoption at SimpleNexus and earning Ellie Mae’s Hall of Fame Award for digital mortgage excellence at George Mason Mortgage. At FirstClose, she is focused on helping lenders launch faster and build stronger borrower relationships. That same dedication to leadership extends to the insights FirstClose brings to the industry. On Wednesday, September 10 at 1:00 PM CT, FirstClose is hosting a webinar featuring MBA’s Jonathan Penniman, who will share findings from the MBA’s new Home Equity Lending Study. Gain a data-driven look at borrower trends, operational strategies, and the future of home equity lending. Reserve your spot today!

If borrower experience and automation are on your radar, this is one of those webinars you’ll want on your calendar. Encompass® automation is powerful, but the real impact comes when those workflows extend directly to the borrower experience. Join ICE Mortgage Technology’s Eric Kujala and LenderLogix on Thursday, September 18th at 2PM EST as they show how lenders are streamlining critical processes like fee collection, verifications, and credit ordering. You’ll see how Encompass® workflows can power the POS to deliver a consistent, borrower-friendly experience while giving loan officers greater control and efficiency. Register now to save your seat.

Services, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

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“Loan officers, put your trust in ServiceLink as your title and close provider. We specialize in helping originators of all sizes future-proof their business. How do we do it? In four easy steps. First, we offer our best-in-class product suite, delivered with the industry’s fastest turn times. Second, we extend full visibility into your pipeline with automated order notifications. Third, we provide signing agent coverage in all 50 states, with evening and weekend appointments available. And fourth, we offer full workflow customization, access to fees 24/7 and industry-best pricing. ServiceLink's unmatched tools and technology help you build borrower loyalty by making the experience best-in-class. What can a partnership with ServiceLink do for you? Reach out to us today!”

Lenders now can turn every borrower interaction into their own personal touch point with the Empower LOS + Total Expert integration, making every touchpoint smarter, faster, and more personal. New leads flow instantly into the Empower LOS platform, kicking off the loan process without a single keystroke of duplicate entry. As loans progress, real-time updates trigger perfectly timed, personalized messages to borrowers and their agents, keeping everyone informed and confident at every step. Post-close, rich data feeds back into Total Expert, activating targeted retention campaigns that turn happy borrowers into repeat customers. Because when every interaction feels intentional and personal, borrowers don’t just remember the loan… They remember you. Because modern lending isn’t about transactions. It’s about making lasting connections. Make yours today.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Financial literacy: MLOs should lead the way

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The 2025 NextGen Financial Literacy Report is now live! This year’s edition goes beyond measuring knowledge to uncover the psychological and behavioral factors shaping Gen Z and Millennial buyers.

Key findings reveal a generation eager to succeed but struggling with financial overwhelm, misconceptions about down payments, and low trust in traditional institutions. At the same time, they are turning to influencers, social media, and AI for answers, showing us that financial education must be designed to meet them where they are, in clear, visual, and inclusive formats. Down payment myths remain: 77 percent of buyers believe you need at least 10 percent down to purchase a home. 52 percent report feeling overwhelmed by financial information, with more than half delaying major financial decisions as a result. AI adoption is surging: use of ChatGPT for homebuying information jumped from 35 percent in January 2025 to over 60 percent by August. (PDF of report is here).

Capital markets: the economy… she’s not so hot jobwise

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Given the slowing job market, President Trump will likely finally get that Fed interest rate cut he’s been advocating for. Some analysts are even betting on a 50 basis point cut. MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni had a reaction to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment conditions in August. “The job market is softening, with even sectors like health care, which had steadily contributed to job growth, now slowing. Job losses continued in the federal government and manufacturing sectors. Wage growth at 3.7 percent over the past year is steady, but it is certainly running at a slower pace than a year ago.

“While the headline unemployment rate increased to 4.3 percent, what was more notable was the larger increase in the U-6 to 8.1 percent, with more workers only able to find part-time work or becoming discouraged by the lack of job openings, and the continued increase in the length of unemployment spells. While the pace of layoffs has picked up somewhat, the hiring rate remains quite low. It is increasingly difficult for those laid off, and for new entrants into the job market, to find a position.

“The slowdown in the job market should be more than enough for the FOMC to cut its short-term rate target at its September meeting, as this is not a picture of an economy at ‘maximum employment,’ and the greater risk now appears to be that the job market will slip further in the months ahead. The pace of any additional cuts will certainly be tempered by the ongoing risk of a pickup in tariff-induced inflation.” Thank you, Mike!

So the unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent, putting it at its highest rate since 2021. New revisions to prior months’ job figures also raised red flags: While July’s numbers actually jumped from 73,000 jobs added to 79,000, June’s job numbers, which originally showed a job gain of 14,000, were updated to a loss of 13,000. This marks the first time that the US economy has lost jobs in nearly four years. Workers aged 16–24 are now hovering at a 10.5 percent unemployment rate, double the national average and the highest it’s been since 2021. Some economists point to AI scooping up entry-level jobs in certain industries.

The manufacturing industry, one of the main areas President Trump is hoping to juice with his economic policies, has now lost 78,000 jobs this year, following August’s fourth consecutive month. This was the first jobs report since Trump fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer last month, claiming a disappointing jobs report was “rigged.” Economists and market experts worried the firing could jeopardize the agency’s political independence, but it is unlikely to have impacted the new report. Additionally, the number of job openings per unemployed worker fell below one for the first time since 2021. While it has become more difficult to find a job, the number of layoffs has not ticked up, signaling more of a stall in the jobs market versus a contraction in employment.

Remember a few years ago when unemployment hovered at half-century lows? Now it’s at its highest point since the depths of the pandemic. Given the shift in focus from inflation to employment, the current labor environment gives the Fed the room it needs to ease monetary policy. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point rate cut following the next FOMC meeting on September 17th and expectations have shifted from an additional cut to two more cuts before the end of the year for a 2025 total of 75-basis points of easing.

For those who care about interest rates… Following the jobs report, 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4.10 percent for the first time since April, briefly testing an upward trend line connecting prior low-yield points: If yields push below 4.06 percent, there’s little technical support until 4.0 percent. Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields also fell, breaching their 200-day moving average for the first time since April, with momentum favoring further declines. Resistance lies near 4.75 percent. Despite the recent rally, investor sentiment is skewing bearish.

Don’t assume that this week’s consumer price/producer price combination has the potential to materially reprice the U.S. rates market, as investor bias lies toward weakness on the labor front. Investors are looking for an August increase of 0.3 percent in month-over-month core-CPI, comparable to July’s move. However, there is a risk of a repeat of July’s composition: soft goods inflation with sticky services pressure. Even in the event of an upside inflation surprise, the FOMC is surely going to follow-through with a 25-basis points cut on September 17.

This week’s data includes key inflation updates (PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday), along with consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the budget statement, and Michigan sentiment. Treasury will conduct the mini-refunding tomorrow to Thursday consisting of $58 billion 3-year notes, $39 billion reopened 10-year notes, and $22 billion reopened 30-year bonds. No Fed speakers are scheduled since the Fed will be in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. However, the ECB will be out with its latest decision on Thursday, where it is expected to hold rates steady. For MBS, Class A 48 hours is on Friday.

Today’s economic calendar kicks off later this morning with the employment trends index for August, and will be followed by consumer credit for July, and some short-duration Treasury auctions. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Friday’s elevated levels, the 2-year yielding 3.50 after closing last week at its lowest level in three years as the market's expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut were cemented, and the 10-year yielding 4.09 after closing last week at 4.09 percent, a level last seen in early April.

Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Servicing: What’s All the Fuss About?” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)