8.25.25 Headlines and Mortgage Performance; Lenders One's Justin Demola on Compensation; Jackson Hole Reaction

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through all the latest headlines in mortgage banking. Plus, Robbie sits down with Lenders One’s Justin Demola for a discussion on how originator compensation will evolve in the age of the digital mortgage. And we close by previewing Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech.

FHA fall-out borrowers represent untapped market shares that can stabilize your shrinking pipeline. Arrive Home's Earned Equity Program supports these clients on their path to meaningful homeownership. Additionally,  FHA borrowers who don't have the benefit of family assistance are able to qualify using the Nation's leader in DPA. 

Transcript

“I received a thesaurus in the mail today, but when I opened it all the pages were blank. I have no words to describe how angry I am.” Think of the all the people in our business, or any business, that “started in the mail room” and change is afoot in mail delivery. First off, several European and Asian countries are cutting off delivering packages to the United States due to Trump Administration tariff policies. Meanwhile, Denmark is ending letter deliveries in general. Our President has been continually condemning vote-by-mail and the integrity of the United States Postal Service. Lenders, title companies, and vendors will use the most cost efficient, accurate, and reliable communication method they can. Along those lines, don’t forget that MISMO® is the standards development body for the mortgage industry, and is the reason that a common language for exchanging information for the mortgage finance industry exists. Today, MISMO standards are accepted and deployed by every type of entity involved in creating mortgages, and they are required by most regulators, housing agencies and the GSEs that participate in the industry. Change is often also the focus of Now Next Later, and today Sasha Stair and Jeremy Potter are joined by TJ Harrington from Stewart Lender Services to talk home equity markets, fractional ownership of home, and outlook for innovation in title or with GSEs. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Arrive Home. Arrive Home helps mortgage lenders connect creditworthy buyers with down payment assistance and affordable homeownership solutions, offering tools that empower lenders and uplift communities. Hear an interview with Lenders One’s Justin Demola on how originator compensation will evolve in the age of the digital mortgage.)

Employment and transitions

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radius financial group is hiring a Compliance Analyst with a focus on vendor management and operational compliance. This remote role includes monitoring vendor agreements, conducting audits, performing risk assessments, and ensuring compliance with federal and state mortgage regulations. The ideal candidate will have 2+ years of mortgage industry experience in compliance, processing, underwriting, loan quality, or internal audit. Strong knowledge of HMDA, MCR reporting, and Fair Lending practices is preferred, along with proficiency in Excel or other data tools. Candidates should be detail-oriented and able to work independently while communicating effectively across teams. Please submit confidential resumes here.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and tools for lenders and brokers

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Leads to Locks Lookbook: Your Guide to Better Lending! Stop leaving deals on the table. Drawing from analysis of over 1 billion credit records, this lookbook combines the fundamentals of credit, real LLPA case studies, and proven optimization strategies to help you spot opportunities others miss. Boost Your Closings with DSCR Investor Loans from LoanStream a DBA of OCMBC, Inc. Win more investor clients with flexible financing, including loans up to $3.5 million, 85% LTV for purchase, rate & term refi, 75% LTV for Cash Out and FICO down to 620. Investor perks include gift funds allowed, no cap on financed properties, eligible for non-warrantable condos, leasehold properties, and short-term rentals (Airbnb, VRBO). Works for 1-4 family homes and condos. Here’s what’s so great about DSCR Investor loans (Gross Income ÷ PITIA / ITIA) focuses on property cash flow, not personal income, making approvals faster and easier. Close more deals, serve more clients, and grow your pipeline all at the same time. Contact your LoanStream AE to learn more, or visit: https://bit.ly/4mrP64c

As NASA explores “warp drive” technology that could one day let us bend space-time and travel light-years instantly, it would seem mortgage lending is having its own warp-drive moment. At this year’s HousingWire AI Summit on Aug. 12, the conversation shifted from last year’s “theories” to action as AI is no longer a distant possibility. It’s here, reshaping how lenders operate, compete, and serve borrowers. But as with any bold leap forward, navigation matters. Larger lenders are already piloting AI to streamline workflows and improve the borrower experience, while smaller players are still mapping the possibilities. Barriers to entry are dropping, yet an accurate scale requires skill, guardrails, and constant monitoring. And with regulatory requirements racing to catch up, compliance can’t be an afterthought. Curious where the industry is headed and how to chart your own course? Check out Craig Rebmann’s 5 Takeaways from the recent 2025 AI Summit.

Unlock the latest insights on the future of home equity lending! Join FirstClose on Wednesday, September 10, at 1:00 PM CT (2:00 PM ET) for an exclusive webinar featuring Jonathan Penniman, Associate Director, Systems and Analytics, Research and Economics at the MBA. Jonathan will walk through findings from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s new Home Equity Lending Study, offering a data-driven look at today’s market dynamics and what lenders need to know to stay competitive. From borrower trends to operational strategies, this session will deliver a valuable perspective on where home equity lending is headed next. Reserve your spot today!

“Kind Lending Delivers More Than Rates. We Power Broker Growth! At Kind Lending, we’re all about giving brokers a competitive edge. That means more than great pricing - it means real tools, real training, and real support. Our brokers love Kwikie, the powerful portal built for speed, simplicity, and total visibility. But what truly sets us apart is how we pair great tech with consistent, high-impact education. Join us every Thursday at 11:30 AM PST for live, high-impact training focused on building product knowledge and applying it to real-world scenarios. Here’s what’s coming in September: 9/4 – Non-QM Deep Dive: Know the Borrower, Build the Deal; 9/11 – FHA Streamline: Skip the Paperwork, Not the Opportunity; 9/18 – Bank Statement Loans: Your Non-QM Tool for Self-Employed Success; 9/25 – VA IRRRL Unpacked: Eligibility, Process & Pitfall Prevention; Register now to level up your pipeline! Not an approved broker, but ready to experience the Kind Movement? Click here to get started.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

ICE reports on mortgage performance

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ICE Mortgage Technology’s July 2025 First Look report reveals continued strength in U.S. mortgage performance despite a rise in foreclosures. The national delinquency rate fell to 3.27 percent, improving for the second straight month and remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. While serious delinquencies rose by 30k year-over-year, this marks the smallest annual increase since November, as the effects of past natural disasters diminish. FHA loans continue to show the most stress, accounting for 52 percent of serious delinquencies despite a slight monthly improvement. Foreclosure activity increased for the fifth straight month but remains 35 percent below pre-pandemic norms, and prepayment activity saw a modest rise to 0.67 percent, up over 12 percent from last year.

Data revision trends

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Earlier this month, President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer shortly after the release of a disappointing jobs report (showing only 73,000 new jobs and major downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June), accusing her (most would say without evidence) of manipulating employment data for political purposes. The move drew sharp criticism from economists, lawmakers, and former officials, who warned it threatened the integrity and independence of federal economic data. Trump then nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist known for criticizing BLS methods and (most who are well-versed on his career would suggest) promoting conspiracy theories online, as her replacement, raising further concerns about politicization and credibility of future economic reporting.

Federal statistical agencies often release provisional data (preliminary figures subject to revision) to provide timely economic insights. These data may change due to late-arriving information, benchmarking to comprehensive counts, or updated seasonal adjustments. Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) follow rigorous revision processes to improve accuracy. The BLS, for example, revises its monthly employment data twice and conducts an annual benchmark adjustment using employer tax records. Similarly, the Census Bureau revises retail sales data twice monthly and annually benchmarks it against broader surveys with larger samples and higher response rates. The BEA issues three successive estimates of GDP each quarter, with revisions based on new data and seasonal trends, aiming to reflect the economy’s true direction with high accuracy. These revisions, though sometimes substantial, enhance the reliability of key economic indicators and maintain high statistical standards.

For example, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates are released on a quarterly schedule, starting with an "advance" estimate near the end of the first month after the quarter ends, followed by "second" and "third" estimates in the subsequent two months as more complete data become available. The "latest" quarterly estimates incorporate results from annual and comprehensive updates. Annual updates, released each September, typically revise the past five years using newly available data, while comprehensive updates occur approximately every five years and include significant data revisions, methodological improvements, and conceptual updates to better reflect changes in the U.S. economy.

Cancel culture in mortgage?

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In July 2025, a record 58k home purchase contracts (15 percent of all deals) were canceled, according to Redfin, as high prices, rising mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty caused more buyers to back out, even after signing. Job security concerns are a key factor, with 44 percent of American workers citing it as a reason for delaying major purchases like homes or cars. A Redfin-Ipsos survey found that nearly 40 percent of workers feel less secure in their jobs compared to six months ago, particularly those earning under $50,000 annually. Factors like company performance, tariffs, AI adoption, and a lack of emergency savings further fuel buyer hesitation. Cancellations were highest in Florida and Texas, where abundant new construction, high insurance costs, and rising HOA fees give buyers more options, and more reasons to walk away.

Capital markets

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The housing market remains stuck in a state of stagnation, with last week’s data showing only modest gains: existing home sales rose 2.0 percent in July to a 4.0 million-unit annual pace, roughly unchanged since January, while new home sales, despite a 5.2 percent monthly increase in June, are down 6 percent year-to-date, with permits falling 12 percent. Persistent affordability challenges driven by high home prices and mortgage rates continue to suppress demand, limiting the pace of both existing and new home sales. A weak summer buying season, marked by elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, has led to a buildup of inventory, which is beginning to cap home price appreciation across many markets. Builder incentives, once effective in propping up new home sales, are losing traction, and the growing supply has yet to fully translate into improved buyer activity. Meanwhile, sellers remain sidelined, locked in by ultra-low mortgage rates and eroding equity, further constraining resale supply. Even with slight rate declines, the impact on affordability is muted, and until consumer confidence improves and borrowing costs meaningfully retreat, the housing sector is likely to remain a drag on broader economic momentum.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks sparked a significant market reaction, with the odds of a September rate cut jumping from 72 percent to nearly 90 percent following his comments Friday from Jackson Hole. Markets were initially bracing for a continued hawkish tone, but Powell surprised by emphasizing rising downside risks to employment and suggesting that these risks could materialize quickly, prompting a shift in policy stance. He described the labor market as being in a “curious kind of balance,” citing recently revised, weaker job growth data. While acknowledging the threat posed by inflation, Powell struck a notably dovish tone, balancing inflation concerns with growing signs of labor market fragility.

In a broader context, Powell used the opportunity to unveil updates to the Fed’s long-term monetary policy framework, revisiting key elements first revised in 2020. These changes included dropping language that suggested tolerance for “shortfalls” in employment and replacing it with a more flexible view that employment can exceed real-time assessments without necessarily risking price stability. The Fed also scrapped its pandemic-era approach of tolerating above-target inflation to compensate for earlier shortfalls, signaling a return to more traditional inflation management. While still reaffirming the 2 percent inflation target, Powell emphasized a cautious approach, noting that the Fed’s current restrictive stance allows room to respond if economic risks shift further.

Markets responded enthusiastically to Powell’s shift in tone, with equities rallying, Treasury yields falling, and the dollar weakening. The dovish pivot, framed around a “challenging situation” of opposing risks, was seen as opening the door to rate cuts as early as next month. Powell emphasized that the current policy rate is significantly closer to neutral than it was a year ago and reiterated that maintaining anchored inflation expectations remains essential. The Fed chair received a standing ovation following the speech, and while more commentary is expected from other Fed officials, Powell’s remarks have set a constructive tone likely to carry through upcoming policy discussions.

This month-end week ahead of the long Labor Day Holiday weekend includes economic updates on the housing market, Fed surveys, Q2 GDP before PCE and Michigan sentiment on Friday. Treasury will auction month-end supply tomorrow through Thursday (consisting of $183 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes and $28 billion reopened 2-year FRNs), and several Fed speakers are currently scheduled, including dissenting governor Waller. Today’s economic calendar is already under way with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August (declined to +0.79 from +2.54 in July but growth remains above-average). Later today brings new home sales for July, Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing for August, some short-duration Treasury auctions, and remarks from Dallas Fed President Logan and New York Fed President Williams. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices slightly worse from Friday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.73 percent, and the 10-year yielding 4.29 percent after closing last week at 4.26 percent, down 7-basis points over the course of last week.

There was a man who worked for the Post Office whose job was to process all the mail with illegible addresses. One day, a letter came addressed in shaky handwriting to God with no actual address. He thought he should open it to see what it was about.

The letter read: “Dear God, I am an 83-year-old widow, living on a very small pension. Yesterday someone stole my purse. It had $100 in it, which was all the money I had until my next pension payment. Next Sunday is Christmas, and I have invited two of my friends over for dinner. Without that money, I have nothing to buy food with, have no family to turn to, and you are my only hope. Can you please help me? Sincerely, Edna”

The postal worker was touched. He showed the letter to all the other workers. Each one dug into his or her wallet and came up with a few dollars. By the time he made the rounds, he had collected $96, which they put into an envelope and sent to the woman.

The rest of the day, all the workers felt a warm glow thinking of Edna and the dinner she would be able to share with her friends. Christmas came and went. A few days later, another letter came from the same old lady to God.

All the workers gathered around while the letter was opened. It read: “Dear God, how can I ever thank you enough for what you did for me? Because of your gift of love, I was able to fix a glorious dinner for my friends. We had a very nice day, and I told my friends about your wonderful gift. By the way, there was $4 missing. I think it might have been those bastards at the post office. Sincerely, Edna”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Servicing: What’s All the Fuss About?” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)