8.14.25 Number Riddles; Regal Point Capital's Vijay Marolia on Blockchain; Wholesale Inflation Up

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through some numbers for borrowers to consider. Plus, Robbie sits down with Regal Point Capital’s Vijay Marolia for a discussion on understanding how blockchain technology is seeping its way into mortgage transactions and how to prepare for the shift to a more digital landscape. And we close by going through the reaction to the latest PPI figures.

ICE has and continues to transform the housing finance and homeownership experience. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle. As the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency and scalability, ICE is the technology of choice for the majority of industry participants, defining the future of homeownership.

Transcript

“I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s Western Secondary breaks up here in Southern California, numbers are dancing in everyone’s head. Volumes, margins, gain on sale, concessions, and extensions. (I even have a numerical riddle that stumped me below instead of the usual joke; even the solution had me befuddled.) A veteran LO once told me that she always looks at the coffee a potential client is drinking. Who is going to grouse more about .125 in rate, someone who makes their own coffee for less than $1 a cup or someone who buys it every day? At $5.74 per cup, a daily Starbucks latte costs $2,095 per year. Had you placed that amount in a high-yield savings account with a 4 percent return, you’d end up with $2,179 after one year, a modest $84 gain. Much larger gains could be realized over time if this money had been invested in equities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle, setting the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency, and scalability, and defining the future of homeownership. Today’s has interview with Regal Point Capital’s Vijay Marolia on understanding how blockchain technology is seeping its way into mortgage transactions and how to prepare for the shift to a more digital landscape.)

Jobs

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AmeriHome just returned from an action-packed couple of days at CMBA’s Western Secondary Market Conference where the team met with friends, clients, and partners. AmeriHome continues to focus on its Non-Agency suite of products, including AUS Jumbo Express with delegated and non-delegated options, as well as DSCR loans for LLCs! Stay tuned for exciting enhancements to the product suite later this month! As its non-Agency platform grows, AmeriHome is looking to add senior underwriting leadership. Click here if you are interested. Management has also announced updates to the Builder Forward program by adding longer lock periods, and AmeriHome continues to grow its eNote platform by adding clients and warehouse bankers to the approved list. If you are looking to do a deeper dive into AmeriHome’s product offerings, connect with an AmeriHome sales representative to schedule a meeting, check here for a more detailed breakdown of where AmeriHome will be throughout 2025, and follow AmeriHome Correspondent on LinkedIn to stay connected!

How many more loans could you be closing? At Planet, proprietary programs and accessible operations turn “not yet” into “yes.” Our FHA-based proprietary DPA lets buyers purchase a home for less than a $1 down with no income cap and no need for perfect credit. It’s available to all homebuyers, not just first-timers, and works with condos and manufactured homes, giving you more ways to say yes. With Planet, you’ll close more loans with less friction. Call today and ask about Planet DPA: Candice McNaught SVP, Retail Growth and Strategic Marketing, (214) 558-2675. 

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for lenders and brokers

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It’s 2025, but Floify is throwing it back to the '90s, when grunge ruled, neon was everywhere, and your toughest decision was which fanny pack matched your windbreaker. These days, bold looks meet bold tech in Floify’s Dynamic Apps, a powerful feature that lets lenders create loan applications and workflows as personalized as a custom ‘90s mixtape. Whether you’re tailoring fields for different borrower types or introducing a new loan product, Dynamic Apps gives credit unions the flexibility they need to make every member feel like a VIP. No more clunky forms or rigid processes. Just streamlined, compliant, totally member-centric magic. Catch Floify live at the ACUMA 2025 Make Your Mark Annual Conference (Sept. 21–24, Colorado Convention Center, Denver) to see how Dynamic Apps can give your CU lending experience a serious glow-up. Schedule a demo now.

On today's episode of The Big Picture at 12pm PT, Rob Chrisman and Rich Swerbinsky are joined by Chase Gilbert, CEO and Co-Founder of Built, to explore how technology is reshaping construction lending and where true innovation is happening in real estate finance. They'll also unpack the latest CPI and PPI data, rate volatility, and the potential impact of President Trump’s plan to IPO the GSEs within the year.

The biggest change to appraisals in a generation is almost here. UAD 3.6 will replace traditional forms with a configurable, data-driven report, and the transition starts this September. Are you ready? In this on-demand webinar, get a practical look at what’s changing, how it impacts your business, and how to prepare. You’ll hear directly from Ken DeFeo, senior manager at Fannie Mae, who helped shape the new standard, alongside Class Valuation experts. Whether you’re already preparing or just getting started, this session will help you move forward with confidence. Watch the full session now to learn key UAD 3.6 updates, GSE milestones, and how Class Valuation is helping lenders stay ahead.

“Why Choose Kind for VA Home Loans? Because Veterans Deserve Better Options.

At Kind Lending, VA loans aren’t a checkbox. They’re a mission to deliver unmatched access and flexibility for those who’ve earned it. We go beyond the basics with FICOs as low as 580, DTI up to 50% with a manual underwrite, and options for borrowers with no credit score using non-traditional credit. Because homeownership shouldn’t have a ceiling, our max loan amount is $2 million. Have a refi? Our VA IRRRLs offer both credit and non-credit qualifying paths and may be eligible for a soft pull. What’s an even bigger bonus? We offer VA joint loans! With Kind, you’re backed by an industry-leading broker portal, AEs averaging 25 years’ experience, and a wholesale team that moves like a partner, not a vendor. Your next VA success story starts here. Contact your Kind AE today, or click here to become an approved broker and start experiencing the Kind TPO wow factor.”

Real estate fee complexity and evolving regulations present a major challenge, and expense, for lenders. Federal, state, and local fees can change anytime new laws are enacted. If lenders don’t stay ahead of these changes, they risk costly fee cures due to discrepancies between disclosed and actual closing fees. In ICE’s recent blog, Are Fee Cures an Issue for Your Organization?, Richard Lombardi, Senior Director of Property Data Solutions at ICE, explores how fee changes, often outside a lender’s control, can lead to inaccurate disclosures and compliance issues. Discover how advanced fee management technology from ICE, including real-time fee monitoring and dashboard tools, can help identify past fee cure problems and prevent future ones. Read the full blog now. 

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Capital markets: Ginnie issuance is on the upswing

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In mortgage capital markets, small efficiency gains can unlock big profits. Learn how First National Bank of Omaha (FNBO) reaped the benefits of a new hedging and loan trading platform, selecting MCT as the clear choice after evaluating multiple vendors. With seamless technology, exclusive integrations with investors and aggregators, and rapid, expert support, FNBO’s secondary desk became leaner, execution accelerated, and more time was freed to focus on strategy. “We were looking for a more efficient platform at a fair cost. MCT had that, plus integrations other competitors just don’t offer,” Tyler Anderson, Director of Secondary Marketing at FNBO, explained. Watch the full video to see how MCT helps lenders achieve efficiency and value while staying ahead in a competitive market.

“Innovative technology can get you far, but the right team behind it takes you further. At Optimal Blue, our hedging client services team brings deep market expertise to help you navigate risk, act decisively, and stay ahead of market shifts. Pair that expertise with CompassEdge, our hedging and loan trading platform, and the value multiplies. You get real-time insights, faster execution, and a strategy that flexes with the market, backed by a team that knows how to make it work for you. Whether you need full-service support or just another set of eyes, Optimal Blue delivers a high-performance engine built on people, powered by technology, and focused on your bottom line. Reserve your spot for “Maximize Profitability With Smarter Hedging & Trading Support” on August 20 at noon CT to see how people and platform combine to drive measurable performance.”

Turning to interest rates and a steeper yield curve helping ARM production, without any top-tier data yesterday, bonds experienced a little rally. That’s probably easier for me to say than something like “UMBS15 4.5 percent through 5.5 percent for September settlement settled 4 to 6+ ticks higher and 0+ to 1+ tighter versus Treasuries, while the 15-year current coupon was 1.3-basis points tighter at 92.1-basis points bid, and September G2/UMBS swaps ended 1 to 1+ cheaper across the rest of the stack depending on coupon.”

Back to English: The market movement stemmed from Treasury Secretary Bessent making two television appearances arguing for a 50-basis point rate cut in September, followed by continued loosening that would total at least 150-basis points, something markets do eventually expect. Mr. Bessent's comments essentially cemented expectations for a 25-basis point cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s next meeting on September 17.

Recent inflation and employment data have shifted the policy conversation toward how aggressively the Fed should cut rates at its next meeting, with some market voices openly considering a 50-basis-point move (currently priced in at roughly a 4 percent chance). While political pressure on Powell is nothing new, and has historically hardened his resistance, the data now supports a return to “normalization,” likely through a series of quarter-point cuts rather than one large move. Market pricing via the SOFR curve implies a gradual reduction to around 3.06 percent by late 2026, close to the Fed’s long-run neutral estimate of 3.00 percent. As a reminder, the upper bound of the current range is 4.50 percent.

Mortgage credit availability has modestly loosened over the past year, up about 5 percent according to the MBA index. However, gains have been concentrated among higher-income, high-credit borrowers, evidenced by jumbo and conventional credit rising 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, while Ginnie Mae borrower credit has inched up by just 0.6 percent.

Despite tighter standards overall, Ginnie Mae’s share of mortgage issuance has surged to more than 42 percent in 2025 after record highs of 38 percent in 2023 and 40 percent in 2024, reflecting a shift away from conventional loans as affordability strains and overall issuance slows. This growing dominance signals a notable change in the Agency MBS market, as Ginnie Mae borrowers differ significantly from conventional ones. Call it a persisting divide between the “haves” (with easy credit access) and “have-nots” (facing continued barriers since the post-COVID tightening).

So yes, let’s not forget the loans going into Ginnie Mae securities: primarily FHA and VA loans. Each has differences that are closely watched in terms of credit quality, delinquency and foreclosure rates, servicing values, geographic dispersion, underwriting nuances, and so on. Some servicers really like FHA loans; some really like VA loans. Analyzing these trends is something that every large mortgage servicing rights owner does, continually.

Today’s calendar kicked off with July PPI (+.9 percent versus +0.1 percent expectations, so much higher) and weekly jobless claims (224k as expected). Later today brings a flurry of Treasury activity that will be headlined by auctions of $16 billion 20-year bonds and $8 billion reopened 30-year TIPS, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from Richmond Fed President Barkin. After the strong producer price numbers, we begin Thursday with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.71, and the 10-year yielding 4.24 after closing yesterday at 4.24 percent.

Being a capital markets guy, I’m okay with numbers. But this one stumped me initially. An old man dies and leaves his three sons 17 horses in these amounts: 1/2 to the oldest son, 1/3 to the next oldest, 1/9 to the youngest. How did they divide the odd number of horses? They couldn't cut a horse in half! Solution below. Before you immediately page down to it, like I know that you’re going to do, try to figure it out first.

To solve the problem, they borrowed a horse from a neighbor, making 18 horses. 1/2 = 9 horses, 1/3 = 6 horses, 1/9 = 2 horses. That adds up to 17 horses, so they returned the neighbor's horse.

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)