8.5.25 Statistical Services; MBA's Laura Escobar on Chair Duties; Sentiment Swaying

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we review how statistics can be applied to fit a certain narrative. Plus, Robbie sits down with MBA Chair Laura Escobar to discuss her travels around the country. And we close by looking at what payrolls missing estimates means for future Fed rate cuts.

Thank you to Total Expert, the purpose-built customer engagement platform trusted by hundreds of modern financial institutions. Total Expert turns customer data into actionable insights that help lenders engage and guide consumers through complex financial decisions.

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“An economist’s left leg is on fire, and his right leg is frozen. He says, ‘On average I'm perfectly fine.’” For those out there continuing to scratch your heads about the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll, Donald Trump, and economic statistics in general, here is a fine, straightforward article explaining how the numbers are calculated, revised, and can’t be manipulated. Besides economics and politics, lenders and LOs have a lot to track, and be aware of, and on today’s episode of Advisory Angle at 11am PT, STRATMOR Group's Sue Woodard, Kris van Beever, and Garth Graham return to explore how mortgage lenders and servicers can turn strategic vision into real-world execution. From modernizing technology to managing regulatory challenges, they share practical insights on what it takes to lead in today’s servicing landscape. Meanwhile, how’s your renovation offering? The median age of owner-occupied homes is 43 years old, according to the latest data from the 2022 American Community Survey (done three years ago). The U.S. owner-occupied housing stock is aging rapidly especially after the Great Recession, as residential construction continues to fall behind in the number of new homes built. New home construction faces headwinds such as rising material costs, labor shortage, and elevated interest rates nowadays. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by Total Expert, the purpose-built customer engagement platform trusted by hundreds of modern financial institutions. Total Expert turns customer data into actionable insights that help lenders engage and guide consumers through complex financial decisions. Hear an interview with MBA Chairman Laura Escobar on her travels around the nation, mentorship, and public speaking.)

Employment, TPO team available, & promotion

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“Integrity Mortgage Group is excited to invite you to our anonymous virtual Discovery Day event taking place today! This event offers an excellent opportunity to learn about our approach and discover how we support Loan Officers and Branch Managers in achieving lasting success in their careers. You’ll hear firsthand from our Executive Team and Loan Officers, as we peel back the curtain on our superior processes, products, culture, and more. Don’t miss this opportunity to meet our team and see how we can help you reach your professional aspirations. Tune in TODAY at 3 PM EST: IMG Discovery Day Zoom Link Passcode: 685902.”

“Unlock the potential of a complete wholesale and non-delegated TPO unit poised for immediate integration. We are seeking a visionary lender, eager to enter or expand in the TPO space. Our team is led by an industry veteran, supported by a dedicated wholesale and non-delegated Sales team known for building strong, lasting relationships. This well-structured unit comes with robust Operations and Underwriting leadership, complemented by an adept Ops and Underwriting support team, collectively generating nearly $1B in annual volume. Designed for seamless integration, this plug-and-play group ensures high-quality, salable production while maintaining an excellent reputation for reliability and excellence in loan creation. Please send your confidential resume to Anjelica Nixt for a discussion and explore how we can work together to achieve exceptional results in the mortgage industry.”

“Earn 75 bps commission as a Non-QM Wholesale Account Executive with NewPoint Mortgage. No tiers. No territories. Work from home. We have the technology, programs, and culture to make you the go-to expert your referral partners want. With over 20 years in non-QM, our operations staff understands how to support you in closing your difficult deals. Please contact Mike Fernandez at michael.fernandez@newpointmortgage.com to take advantage of this opportunity.”

U.S. Bank named Hala Garmo to lead its greater Northern California home lending originations team as a Home Lending Regional Manager, Hala will oversee mortgage originations for U.S. Bank across the northern half of California and connecting more clients with its diverse set of mortgage products including home equity lending, specialties in proprietary first-time homebuyer products, and builder (construction to perm) lending.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for lenders and brokers

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Technology should simplify servicing, not complicate it. Meet SIME, Servicing Intelligence Made Easy, Servbank’s award-winning servicing platform. With real-time data, built-in compliance, and over 150+ customizable reports, SIME simplifies servicing like never before. See how great people and great tech create powerful solutions.

Total Expert Founder and CEO Joe Welu sat down with HousingWire President Diego Sanchez to discuss AI and Mortgage Innovation. Joe believes that “The AI revolution isn’t coming–it’s already here. We’re experiencing the biggest technology shift in human history, and the pace of change is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.” Lenders that effectively layer AI, data insights, and marketing automation will be the ones that continue to build relationships with their customers, make their teams more efficient, and watch their businesses grow. Catch the full interview here. Then, be sure to find Total Expert at the HousingWire AI Summit, August 12 in Dallas. Joe and the Total Expert team will be there to connect with innovators and thought leaders who are shaping the future of lending. Learn more about how Total Expert is already empowering loan officers with Voice AI purpose-built for mortgage lenders.

“eRESI is excited to participate in the California MBA’s Western Secondary Market Conference, taking place next week in Rancho Palos Verdes. As proud sponsors, we’re eager to connect with lenders and engage in meaningful discussions about expanding non-QM opportunities. Meet with Jeff Vanderluit, Lisa Schreiber, or Peter Heintz to explore our latest offerings, including our AUS Jumbo product, Encompass Investor Connect integration, and upcoming enhancements to our Seller Portal. We’re committed to seamlessly fitting into your workflow, allowing you to do business effectively. To schedule a meeting, please email sales@eresimortgage.com. We can’t wait to see you there!”

Join ICE for its monthly Mortgage Monitor webinar where you’ll gain critical insights into U.S. housing and mortgage market trends. The information presented in this preeminent, widely attended monthly webinar is based on the most current data available from ICE's vast mortgage, housing, and property data assets, including the largest servicer-contributed loan-level database in the industry. Learn how borrower demand, housing affordability, interest rates, available equity, and other factors may impact your lending strategies. Register for the upcoming complimentary webinar which will be hosted on Thursday, August 7, from 2 – 3 p.m. ET. Lenders are still talking about the compliance risks uncovered in a recent webinar with Conforma Compliance Group and LenderLogix. From state-level pitfalls to “cowboy” LO practices, the session breaks down how lenders are tightening up pre-approval letter workflows and reducing risk... without slowing down borrowers or agents. Whether you're managing multiple branches or just trying to stay ahead of evolving regulations, this is a must-watch. Catch the on-demand replay now.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Make a good impression

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MBA’s Mortgage Action Alliance (MAA) Advocacy in August campaign is here! During the whole month of August, members of Congress will be home in their states and districts to hear from constituents, and it’s time to make our collective voice louder. MBA’s Legislative and Political Affairs team will work to coordinate state in-person and virtual meetings for advocates, as well as provide attendees with resources and pre-meeting preparation. Participation in these meetings is essential to MBA’s advocacy efforts as they build and strengthen relationships with policymakers by allowing you to share your stories and educate members on issues affecting our industry. Interested in getting involved? Sign up here. Contact MBA’s Manager of Political Affairs Margie Ehrhardt at (202) 557-2708 for more information.

LOs and Building a Winning Machine

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Over the weekend I received an “MLO VieauxPoint” from Brian Vieaux, CMB, President & COO of FinLocker & Founding ‘Expert’ of MLO Live, suggesting that LOs can “build a winning machine in a losing market.”

Brian writes, “While many loan officers are riding out the market slump, Abdel Khawatmi is running a different play. In our latest Loan Officer Life episode, Abdel shared the exact framework that’s fueling his team’s growth, no leads purchased, no excuses given. It’s called CLEAR VICTORY, and it’s more than just an acronym. It’s a blueprint for dominating in today’s market by doing what most aren’t willing to do consistently.

“Here’s a quick preview: C – Content & Education Strategy: Weekly Reels, YouTube, buyer guides. L – Leveraged Systems: From Model Match to FinLocker to Fireflies. all integrated. E – Equity Play: HELOCs, non-QM, DSCR. Strategy > products. A – Authentic Leadership: 4AM gym. 10PM follow-ups. No fluff. R – Reputation: ‘Got Mortgages’ is more than branding… it’s trust at scale. Then comes VICTORY, where visibility, investor language, confidence, tech execution, ownership mentality, and resilience culture turn trust into conversion.

“Abdel’s not chasing agents. He’s auditing their performance. He’s cutting the bottom 20 percent and doubling down on partners who match his intensity. He’s not guessing on readiness, he’s using FinLocker's BuyerVision to get a full financial snapshot before running a soft credit pull. That means more conversion, less waste. Abdel Khawatmi writes, ‘In chaos, clarity wins. And that’s why I don’t flinch.’ In a cycle where many are waiting for conditions to improve, Abdel is building his own market, powered by content, systems, and unapologetic execution. Want the full breakdown? Read the complete article here. Thank you, Brian! #VieauxPoint”

Capital markets: the focus is on the Fed in September

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The week opened with the bond markets holding onto most of Friday’s bullish momentum (see: weak payrolls, solid demand for U.S. debt, arbitrary trade deadline in the rearview, etc.). While July’s employment report alone might not warrant a cut, downward revisions to May and June suggest a clear softening trend. This shift, combined with uncertainty over how tariff-related inflation and economic slowdown will balance out, has pushed the market to refocus on growth risks over inflation risks, especially with consumer spending slowing and the labor market appearing more fragile than previously understood.

Investors are increasingly questioning how restrictive current policy remains. Accordingly, debate is intensifying over whether the Federal Reserve will look past tariff-driven inflation and instead focus on weakening labor market conditions and supporting consumer activity. We are seeing both labor supply and labor demand decline. A rate cut in September appears likely, currently priced at an 90+ percent chance, barring an inflation surprise, as sustained labor softness could outweigh lingering price concerns, and further equity market volatility may increase pressure on the Fed to move decisively. Political developments (e.g., resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and the firing of the BLS chief) have stirred concerns about growing influence over economic policy and data integrity, though markets have largely taken these in stride.

After we learned yesterday that factory orders dropped 4.8 percent in June, mainly due to a sharp decline in transportation equipment, today’s economic calendar kicked off with international trade for June (a deficit of $60.2 billion; imports -3.7 percent, exports -.5 percent). Later today brings S&P Global services PMI, ISM services PMI for July, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by an auction of $58 billion 3-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.70, and the 10-year yielding 4.21 after closing yesterday at 4.20 percent.

Researchers for the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority (MTA) found over 200 dead crows near greater Boston recently, and there was concern that they may have died from Avian Flu.

A Bird Pathologist examined the remains of all of the crows, and, to everyone’s relief, confirmed the problem was definitely NOT Avian Flu. The cause of death appeared to be vehicular impacts. During the detailed analysis, it was noted that varying colors of paint appeared on the birds’ beaks and claws. By analyzing these paint residues, it was determined that 98% of the crows had been killed by impact with trucks, while only 2% were killed by an impact with a car.

MTA then hired an Ornithological Behaviorist to determine if there was a cause for the disproportionate percentages of truck kills versus car kills. He very quickly concluded the cause: “When crows eat roadkill, they always have a lookout crow in a nearby tree to warn of impending danger. They discovered that while all of the lookout crows could shout ‘Cah,’ not a single one could shout ‘Truck.’

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)