8.1.25 Trade Extensions and Highlights; Foundation Mortgage's Marc Halpern on Builders; Payrolls Miss

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we review just what went down on trade deadline day. Plus, Robbie sits down with Foundation Mortgage’s Marc Halpern on builder confidence and the stratification of buyer demand across metros, giving credence to the phrase “real estate is local.” And we close by looking at what payrolls missing estimates means for future Fed rate cuts.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

Transcript

Soon I will head to Michigan. Isolationists beware: Federal records revealed by a Freedom of Information Act request have found that the government of Singapore owns approximately 5 percent of all land in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The city-state’s sovereign wealth fund, The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, is the sole owner of 540,000 acres of forestland in the Upper Peninsula, much of which is slated for active timber harvesting. In Gogebic County alone, Singapore owns one-sixth of all land. From 2021 to 2022, GIC spent $450 million to buy the land from other companies. For perspective, Singapore itself is only around 182,000 acres in size. For perspective, U.S. public lands managed by the federal government cover about 640 million acres of the country, or about 28 percent of the country’s landmass. Of that, 36 percent of all federal public lands are in Alaska alone with the American West accounting for another 56 percent. The rest of the country carries the eight percent balance. 82 million people visited BLM lands for recreational purposes in 2023. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino. nCino Mortgage unites the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Today’s has an interview with Foundation Mortgage’s Marc Halpern on builder confidence and the stratification of buyer demand across metros, giving credence to the phrase “real estate is local.”)

Jobs; remote “AI Ambassador” available

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Deb Gaveglio is seeking an AI Ambassador role in the mortgage industry to help lead the charge in applying AI to real-world challenges in complex, regulated mortgage lending and servicing environments. She has a strong capital markets background in MBS transaction management, business program implementation, mortgage portfolio transfers, AI and credit risk oversight, operational risk mitigation, IT system impact resolution, and workflow migrations. She published a 2025 white paper on the CFPB: Harmonizing Regulatory Compliance and Industry Perspectives”, presented her AI Risk Governance roadmap at a CMB Forum and helped train Tim Rood’s ALFRED chatbot.

“Evergreen Home Loans™ Is Hiring Experienced Remote Underwriters! Evergreen Home Loans™ is growing and looking for experienced underwriters to join our team! We’re hiring full-time, remote positions in the Central and Eastern time zones. Candidates must hold all underwriting delegations (including FHA, VA, and HUD) and be comfortable working in a fast-paced, supportive environment. At Evergreen, we’ve spent over 38 years building a company rooted in relationship-driven lending, operational excellence, and a people-first culture. We believe in doing the right thing, supporting our team with the tools and resources they need, and delivering on time, as promised. If you’re ready to bring your underwriting expertise to a company that values your talent and prioritizes personal and professional growth, we’d love to connect. To apply or learn more, contact Kim Steinbaugh. For all current openings, visit Evergreen Careers.”

“Curious what your income could look like on a true P&L model? MortgageRight’s P&L Roadmap makes it easy to see exactly how much more you could earn by running your business on our platform. With our simple Profit & Loss Worksheet, you can compare your current comp, expenses, and margins side-by-side with MortgageRight’s structure. Most branch managers and originators are shocked to see the difference. With no corporate bloat or unnecessary layers, our model puts more basis points in your pocket without raising borrower rates. You’ll also get the freedom to build your team, set your own comp, and scale with full backend support. It’s not just a spreadsheet. It’s a blueprint for building real wealth. Check your pricing, calculate your margins, and start mapping out your future. Call Alvaro or Mike at (866) 228-7703 or visit BranchRight.com to start your roadmap today.”

Processors, closers, underwriters, and AEs should know that Deephaven offers a proprietary suite of non-QM products, second lien programs, residential transition loans, strong pricing, quick turn times, webinar support, best-in-class scenario desk, fully integrated platform, superior customer service, great benefits, and unmatched company culture. Contact Tom Davis or (954)-871-9299 for a confidential conversation or apply today by visiting here.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for lenders and brokers

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“Looking to cut verification costs by up to 50 percent while improving borrower experience and pull-through? Truework helps lenders streamline income and employment verification through a single VOIEA platform used by four of the top five lenders. With an industry-leading 75 percent completion rate, our platform consistently outperforms competitors and manual waterfalls in speed, cost, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster… Only pay when we complete a file. Used with First and Second liens as well as in Wholesale. Fast to implement, easy to use, and built to drive ROI. Let’s talk.”

Many wholesale lenders attend trade shows hoping for leads, but RCN Capital arrives with a strategy that guarantees a solid ROI. Join us on Tuesday, August 5 at 1PM ET / 10AM PT for "Maximizing Tradeshows to Win More Broker Business," part of the Winning Wholesale NMP Webinar series, to discover how RCN succeeds at every trade show the staff attends. Featured guests Erica LaCentra and Mary Margaret Hogan will share the exact strategies RCN uses before, during, and after each event, including how to develop a pre-show plan, train booth staff to convert prospects, and follow up in ways that generate production rather than just pipeline. Find out why brand lift can outperform lead lists, and how to make every trade show a worthwhile investment. Register now by clicking here.

“Vista Point Mortgage has closed VSTA 2025-CES2, a $295 million securitization of Non-QM Closed-End Second (CES). It included our innovative DSCR CES, an industry first. Vista Point Mortgage has pioneered the non-QM CES asset class during its development throughout 2022, launching nationally in 2023. Now, with over $1.7 billion in CES production, the company leads the way with five transactions successfully sold into the capital markets. Our correspondent channel has contributed a sizable amount of target “down the middle” characteristic loans into the deal, which has a weighted average coupon in the high 9 percent area, CLTV in the mid-high 60’s, FICO in the mid 730’s, DTI in the low-mid 30’s, and our pioneering DSCR CES with a 1.24 DSCR ratio. As a true leader in non-QM and CES, VPM looks forward to connecting with its Correspondent Partners at the Western Secondary Market Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, CA, on August 11-13. For any other inquiries, please email info@vistapointmtg.com or visit vistapointmortgage.com.”

Headed to the CMBA Western Secondary Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, CA on Aug. 11- 13? The Axos Bank Warehouse Lending Team will be there too. While many mortgage banks are expanding their product offerings, we're proud to be scaling ours, including lines of credit from $15MM to $350MM, extended funding cutoff hours to 6:15 p.m. ET, access to over 100 takeout investors, and diverse product offerings, including reverse, second liens, and non-QM loans. So, let's set up a time to talk about fast and flexible lending solutions to maximize your origination opportunities. Contact our Warehouse Lending team to secure a meeting: Eric Nelepovitz, VP; Bobby Martini, SVP; and Justin Castillo, AMP. Won't be at the conference? Not a problem. We're always here to answer your questions and inquiries. Contact our team or visit Axos Bank Residential Warehouse Lending. 

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

AI fans need to see this court case

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John V. Levonick with Garris Horn LLP, addressed a case that has implications for mortgage lenders as well as all financial services, including mortgage lending.

The Massachusetts Attorney General's $2.5 million settlement with student loan lender Earnest Operations LLC marks a pivotal moment in AI regulation, demonstrating how existing consumer protection laws are being forcefully applied to algorithmic decision-making systems. Announced on July 10, 2025, this settlement addressed allegations of unfair and deceptive practices and fair lending violations, primarily stemming from the company's alleged misuse of artificial intelligence (AI) underwriting models. While this resolution was a settlement, reached through an Assurance of Discontinuance (AOD) filed in Suffolk County Superior Court, rather than a court ruling after a contested trial, it establishes a significant enforcement benchmark for AI liability.

Capital markets: rates are buffeted by actual economic news

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Remember when today was supposed to be the trade deal deadline day?! Though admittedly it doesn’t seem as fun as Major League Baseball’s trade deadline that happened yesterday evening. Hours before President Trump’s sweeping tariffs were set to take effect, he announced new, steep rates for more than five dozen countries. And he delayed the deadline again, with most of the tariffs now set to take effect next week.

President Trump’s trade agenda has yielded both victories and setbacks as he reimposes suspended tariffs and finalizes key deals. Wins include securing agreements with the EU and South Korea that raise tariffs to historic levels and boost U.S. exports of fossil fuels and aircraft. These moves, however, have also disrupted global trade alliances, hurt industries like auto and agriculture, and sparked inflationary pressures, with many deals still unfinished and uncertainty clouding the long-term economic impact. It has weakened the dollar and unexpectedly boosted investor interest in emerging markets, attracting billions in capital flows.

While Trump's aggressive tariff threats, such as a new 25 percent duty on Indian exports, have sparked concerns about the dollar's reserve status and rising Treasury yields, recent bilateral deals and signals from the Treasury about steady auction sizes and possible buybacks have calmed market fears. Despite ongoing trade tensions, investors are shifting focus back to macro fundamentals, though questions remain about U.S. consumer resilience and the long-term economic impact of these trade policies.

The July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, marked by Fed Chair Powell’s notably hawkish tone, cast a long shadow over the Treasury’s announcement of increased buybacks of long-dated bonds yesterday, signaling a tightening policy environment. The odds of a September rate cut have dropped from around 95 percent a month ago to less than 40 percent currently, as Powell emphasized that the economy isn’t showing signs of being constrained by restrictive policy.

The Fed appears to believe that the neutral rate of growth may be higher than previously assumed, making the case for easing less urgent unless economic data significantly deteriorates. With two key jobs and inflation reports due before the September FOMC decision, the Fed’s posture suggests cuts will only come in response to clear signs of slowing growth, especially if unemployment pushes toward 5 percent. Until then, the most likely scenario is a delay to later in the fall, with any dovish shift being carefully messaged via updated projections and guidance later in the year.

On the data front, we learned yesterday that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation increased in June at one of the fastest paces this year while consumer spending barely rose, underscoring the dueling forces dividing policymakers over the path of interest rates. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.3 percent from May, according to U.S. government data. It advanced 2.8 percent on an annual basis, a pickup from June 2024 that underscores limited progress on taming inflation in the past year.

Separately, consumers grew a bit more optimistic on coming conditions in July, but households remain hesitant. Tariff fears and a steady moderation in the labor market continue to leave them less confident in their job prospects which could limit their capacity to keep spending. Initial jobless claims increased slightly from last week after six consecutive week-over-week decreases. And mortgage rates fell for the second straight week in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, with the 30-year mortgage rate declining 2-basis points to 6.72 percent.

The July payrolls report led off today’s calendar. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73k, missing estimates indicating “cracks” in the labor market. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2 percent, as expected and up from 4.1 percent last month. Average hourly earnings were +.3 percent as expected month-over-month and 3.8 percent year-over-year versus 0.2 percent and 3.7 percent in June. Later today brings the final July S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the ISM equivalent, and final July Michigan sentiment. After the salvo of employment news, Agency MBS prices are better than Thursday’s close by .125-.250, the 2-year is yielding 3.83, and the 10-year is yielding 4.30 after closing yesterday at 4.36 percent.

A guy walks into a bar and asks the bartender, “If I show you a wild trick, will you give me a free drink?”

The bartender shrugs, “Sure, why not?”

The guy reaches into his pocket and pulls out… a tiny mouse. Then out of the other pocket, he pulls a teeny-tiny piano.

The mouse stretches, cracks his knuckles, and starts playing the blues like a rodent Ray Charles.

Stunned, the bartender pours him a free drink.

After finishing it, the guy says, “Now, if I show you an even better trick, do I drink free all night?”

“Buddy, if you can top that, you’re drinking on me till closing,” the bartender replies.

The man pulls the mouse and piano out again, and this time reaches into his coat and pulls out… a small bullfrog.

The frog clears his throat and starts belting out soulful blues lyrics. The mouse’s playing, the frog’s singing… The bar is dead silent in awe.

Suddenly, a man rushes up and says, “I’ll give you $10,000 for that frog!”

The guy says, “Nope, not for sale.”

“$25,000!”

“Nope.”

“$50,000! Cash!”

“Deal.”

The bartender’s jaw drops. “Are you CRAZY? That frog was a gold mine! Why’d you sell him?”

The man smirks and says, “Relax. The frog can’t sing... the mouse is a ventriloquist.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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