7.30.25 Fannie Earnings; Verisk's Kingsley Greenland on Flooding; Fed Decision Day

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we review Fannie Mae's second quarter earnings . Plus, Robbie sits down with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland to discuss recent flooding events' impact on housing and how insurance company modeling has quickly surpassed government modeling on disasters. And we close by looking ahead to today's Fed decision.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

Transcript

Is it just a matter of time until insurance companies tell us where to live, what to make out houses out of, and what, exactly, we’re allowed to plant in our yards? We may be entering that world. Lenders and vendors live via rules and regulations. I mention this because attorney Brian Levy really doesn’t like the LO Compensation Rule. In fact, in his latest Mortgage Musing take down of the rule, he says it is “brutal.” Levy offers his thoughts about the CFPB proposal to rescind the LO Comp Rule as well as the recently filed LO Comp class action case against loanDepot (reported in Chrisman Commentary last Thursday). (You can sign up to receive Brian’s Mortgage Musing directly here.) While we’re talking regulations, Weiner Brodsky Kider PC did a write up on how the CFPB terminated a consent order that it had entered into with a Florida-based mortgage servicer concerning allegations that the company had failed to inform borrowers of foreclosure protections while actively proceeding with foreclosures against them and that the company had violated a previous consent order. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino. nCino Mortgage unites the people, systems and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Hear an interview with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland on recent flooding events impact on housing and how insurance company modeling has quickly surpassed government modeling on disasters.)

Jobs & transitions

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You are invited to discover how Integrity Mortgage Group is empowering Loan Officers and Branch Managers to thrive in their mortgage careers. This event offers an excellent opportunity to gain insights into our superior processes, products, and culture, all in a relaxed, anonymous, and stress-free environment. Don't miss your chance to meet The Executive Team and find out why IMG could be the best choice for your lasting and successful mortgage career! Bookmark this link and tune in on Tuesday, August 5th at 3 PM EST: IMG Discovery Day Zoom Link Passcode: 685902

Nations Direct Mortgage Introduces Conventional ARMs. Nations Direct Mortgage has expanded its product lineup with the addition of Conventional Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs). These ARMs provide lower introductory rates, flexible terms, and greater affordability for qualified borrowers. Contact your NDM Account Executive to learn more or click here to get approved if you’re not yet signed up. Nations Direct Mortgage is growing and it is hiring! NDM is excited to welcome Matt Mancasola as its new Western Regional Production Manager. With decades of TPO experience and a proven track record of leading his regions to award winning volume, Matt is poised to lead Nations Direct’s Western expansion and growth. As Nations Direct Mortgage continues to grow, it is looking for motivated, driven Account Executives ready to take their careers to the next level. Join a dynamic, fast-paced team that values your talent, rewards ambition and supports your professional growth. Ready to make a move? Send your resume today.

In just the past month, three former AEs returned to Arc Home after realizing the support they had here was hard to find elsewhere. The good news is we are still looking to add more talent to our team. Arc Home is hiring experienced Account Executives nationwide with a focus on Non-QM and Non-Agency lending. AEs get access to multiple channels, responsive operations, top-level technology, and marketing that helps you stay visible from day one. If you are looking for a company that puts AEs first and follows through, contact Jill Meese for a confidential conversation or visit the Arc Home careers page.

Not being scared of a career change in the mortgage industry is important because growth often begins where comfort ends, and the right move can transform your future. Here’s why embracing change matters: 1. Your Environment Dictates Your Success. If your current platform, leadership, or culture is holding you back, a change isn’t risky, it’s necessary. The right company or model can unlock your full potential. 2. Fear Limits Growth. Fear of change keeps many great LOs in the wrong place for too long. But real success comes from taking calculated risks and believing in your ability to adapt and win. 3. Most Top Producers Made a Move. Ask around: many of the top-performing mortgage pros took a leap of faith at some point. That decision often became the turning point in their careers. Call Alvaro or Mike at (866) 228-7703 or visit BranchRight.com when you’re ready.

A well-capitalized TPO firm is seeking a polished and driven recruiting executive to lead the development of an internal recruiting model and manage relationships with third-party recruiters and vendors. Candidates must thrive in a fast-paced, results-oriented environment. This role requires both a hands-on executor and an effective leader: You must be ready to roll up your sleeves and drive results. The ideal candidate will have meaningful experience in the non-QM segment, with a singular focus on recruiting top-performing Wholesale and Correspondent account executives. We’re looking for someone who can balance tactical execution with strategic oversight, developing and delivering on a forward-looking departmental plan aligned with budget and corporate objectives. Experience with HubSpot is a plus. This is an exceptional opportunity to contribute to a high-growth organization and establish yourself as a thought leader within the industry. Please send resumes here.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for lenders and brokers

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“SG Capital is excited to announce key enhancements to our lending programs, effective August 11th. For Prime/Plus Connect, highlights include 90% LTV/CLTV to $1,500,000, DTI up to 55%, acceptance of Laminr bank statement software, and a new 30% expense factor option for bank statement loans. For DSCR Loans, updates include LTV/CLTV up to 85% with a DSCR of 1.0 or greater, loan amounts up to $3,000,000, unlimited cash-out, and up to 6% interested party contributions. These improvements are designed to offer greater flexibility and expanded borrower options. SG Capital is committed to providing innovative solutions that help you close more deals with confidence. To receive the full list of updates and unlock new opportunities, reach out to our team today. We also invite you to connect with us at the Western Secondary Conference, August 11–13, to discuss how these changes can benefit your business.”

“WEBINAR: Co-Marketing Strategies for Local Growth in a Consolidating Industry. While industry giants like Rocket/Redfin/Mr. Cooper, Guild Mortgage/Bayview, and Lower/Movoto consolidate and control entire customer journeys, the smartest local professionals are fighting back—and winning. Join Matthew Marx from Evocalize and Dan Catinella from Total Expert as we share the strategies and tools local professionals use to outcompete these industry giants. It's time to take control of your lead funnel. Join us to see how!”

“Vista Point Mortgage has closed VSTA 2025-CES2, a $295 million securitization of Non-QM Closed-End Second (CES). It included our innovative DSCR CES, an industry first. Vista Point Mortgage has pioneered the non-QM CES asset class during its development throughout 2022, launching nationally in 2023. Now, with over $1.7 billion in CES production, the company leads the way with five transactions successfully sold into the capital markets. Our correspondent channel has contributed a sizable amount of target “down the middle” characteristic loans into the deal, which has a weighted average coupon in the high 9% area, CLTV in the mid-high 60’s, FICO in the mid 730’s, DTI in the low-mid 30’s, and our pioneering DSCR CES with a 1.24 DSCR ratio. As a true leader in non-QM and CES, VPM looks forward to connecting with its Correspondent Partners at the Western Secondary Market Conference in Rancho Palos Verdes, CA, on August 11-13. For any other inquiries, please email info@vistapointmtg.com or visit vistapointmortgage.com.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR on Servicing Strategy

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In STRATMOR’s July Insights Report, servicing takes center stage once again—but this time, the focus is on execution. In “Next Move: Operationalizing Mortgage Servicing for the Future,” STRATMOR Principal Kris van Beever lays out a practical path from strategic intent to real-world results, sharing how lenders can better align people, process, and technology to fully realize the value of their servicing portfolios. If you’ve already embraced the idea that servicing is a strategic lever, this follow-up piece will help you make the leap from vision to action. Read the full Insights Report here.

Fannie Mae continues its performance; Redwood Trust’s transition

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In mortgage banking, when you say the “Agencies” you think of either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. This morning one of them reported its financial results for the 2nd quarter. Fannie earned $3.3 billion of net income, the 30th consecutive quarter of positive net income, and its net worth to $101.6 billion; $88.1 billion in net worth added since the start of 2020. Most of the revenue came from guaranty fee income.

Redwood Trust reported its second quarter 2025 financial results and “accelerates transition to core operating strategy.” GAAP book value per common share was $7.49 on June 30, 2025, relative to $8.39 per share at March 31, 2025. Economic return on book value of -8.6 percent for the second quarter, and GAAP net loss related to common stockholders of -$100.2 million driven by Legacy Investments. Non-GAAP Core Segments Earnings Available for Distribution ("Core Segments EAD") of $25.0 million or $0.18 per basic common share (refer to non-GAAP reconciliation under the section titled "Non-GAAP Disclosures").

Capital markets: Fed Day will be a nonevent

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Rate-wise, a strong $44 billion 7-year Treasury note offering yesterday helped bonds rally in sync with MBS (a rarer occurrence lately), sending yields on the 10-year note and the 30-year bond to their lowest levels since early July. Treasury auctions this week went down without much fuss, signifying strong investor demand. And while we are on the topic of supply, the release of the Treasury Department’s Financing Estimates has further refocused the market on the supply side of the equation. The size of the liquidity buybacks will be released this morning, and earlier in the week the borrowing estimate provided context for the amount of bill issuance the market will need to absorb in the coming months.

Mortgage prices are a result of supply and demand, and on the supply side of the equation, an updated look at July gross issuance and prepayments will be released next Wednesday. Early estimates have FN30 and FN15 speeds increasing 8 percent and 9 percent on average, with GNIIs speeds 4 percent higher, due to a 10 percent increase in collection days and increased refinancing activity. Month-to-date gross issuance ($100.8 billion) has exceeded $100 billion for the third straight month, but is set to fall short of June’s $108.0 billion, which was highest since last November’s $117.8 billion.

Fed Day… it will be a non-event. Andrew Stringer, EVP of Capital Markets with PrimeLending, put a spin on it. “The anticipation is about as palpable as a group of 6-year-olds waiting on a retired circus clown (complete with a 5 o’clock shadow) who’s been roped into making balloon animals for Billy’s birthday. Sure, there’s the promise of cake, but the reality is, you’re going to be forced to endure hours of watered-down lemonade, obnoxious party games, and balloons randomly popping, causing half the children to burst into tears. Sounds like a typical Fed meeting to me.

“It’s a foregone conclusion that rates will remain unchanged. The market’s focus will instead shift to whether a September cut is still on the table. Currently, the Fed Futures market places that probability at around 70 percent. Of course, that could shift quickly depending on how the ‘Dot Plot’ is rolled out (12 voting members projecting where they believe the fed funds rate should be in the future).

“Powell’s commentary will likely center on two key areas. Labor Market: In the last meeting, Powell described it as ‘balanced,’ citing a broad set of indicators and reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to the maximum employment side of its dual mandate. Inflation: After acknowledging labor market strength, he cautioned that inflation ‘remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.’ Powell’s concern over inflation currently outweighs any perceived risk to the employment landscape. Let’s also not forget that 7 of the 12 members last June projected no cuts at all in 2025. With the stock market at all-time highs and no immediate red flags in employment (despite a slight miss in JOLTS/Job Openings), the bias appears to lean toward stalling future cuts… Pay close attention to Powell’s Q&A session for any hints of forward guidance. In a market this sensitive to tone, even a subtle pivot could be the difference between a balloon poodle and a full-blown parade.” Thank you, Andrew!

Today’s economic calendar, which brings the latest Federal Open Market Committee events (statement and Chair Powell’s press conference), kicked off with ADP employment for June (+104k in July versus expectations of 50k versus -33k in May). We’ve also received mortgage applications from MBA, which decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, and the first look at Q2 GDP (+3.0 percent), with the core PCE deflator (+2.5 percent annualized) and personal consumption (+1.4 percent annualized). Later today brings pending home sales (expected to increase 0.8 percent month-over-month in June), Treasury releasing the details of the quarterly refunding, the latest rate decision from the Bank of Canada, and more earnings from Wall Street ahead of the Fed decision. Don’t expect a unanimous FOMC vote based on recent pro-cut comments from Governors Waller and Bowman. Powell’s press conference should provide more light on a cut as soon as the September 17 meeting. After all this news, Agency MBS prices are roughly unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.89, and the 10-year yielding 4.35 after closing yesterday at 4.33 percent. Don’t forget, it’s still a busy remainder of the week, with job cuts and the PCE inflation index tomorrow and non-farm payrolls, ISM and UMich sentiment on Friday.

We’re coming up on the autumn mortgage conference season, complete with plenty of breakfasts with applewood smoked bacon.

Vegetarians live up to nine years longer than meat-eaters. Nine horrible, worthless, baconless years…

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)