7.7.25 Texas Flooding; Truework's Ethan Winchell on Verifications; Treasury Supply

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the the flooding in Texas' impact on housing inventory. Plus, Robbie sits down with Truework’s Ethan Winchell to discuss reshaping income and employment verification through automation, while balancing speed, accuracy, and fairness in an industry ripe for digital transformation. And we close by examining what to look forward to on this week's economic calendar.

Thank you to Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50% cost savings with an industry leading 75% completion rate.

Transcript

The nation is gripped with the flooding in Texas, the loss of human life and property, and how best to prevent similar occurrences given the increase in the severity of weather. (Fairway Independent has already donated $1 million to recovery efforts.) Texas is one of the leading models in the U.S. for growth and in lending. We’ve been saying that we have had a housing shortage for so long, in Texas and elsewhere, that any change to that narrative is almost ignored. Yet builders are having to cut prices to attract buyers, unsold inventory has moved higher, and homes are sitting with “For Sale” signs in their lawns for longer. Affordability continues to be an issue, but lenders can only do so much. The U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it watches the same economic data as MBS buyers. The odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month fell dramatically as new data showed strong growth in the labor market, diminishing the case for lower rates. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50% cost savings with an industry leading 75% completion rate. Today’s has an interview with Truework’s Ethan Winchell on reshaping income and employment verification through automation, while balancing speed, accuracy, and fairness in an industry ripe for digital transformation.)

Employment

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“At MortgageRight, we believe top producers shouldn’t have to choose between independence and support. Our true P&L branch model lets you be your own boss, without the red tape, micromanagement, or rigid corporate structure that slows you down. You call the shots: set your comp, build your team, grow your brand, and run your branch your way. But you’re never alone. We back you with an elite in-house operations team, marketing resources, fast closings, and a digital platform built for speed and scale. You get the freedom to grow on your terms, without wasting time chasing approvals, justifying decisions, or navigating office politics. No layers. No drama. Just real support and real results. If you’re a self-sourced Loan Officer or Branch Manager ready to take control of your business and grow without limits, explore the platform that puts producers first at BranchRight.com.”

The Chrisman Job Board is live, the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, software, and services for lenders & brokers

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“NFTYDoor makes debt consolidation easier… for everyone. NFTYDoor’s digital HELOC includes an integrated debt consolidation tool that lets borrowers self-select which debts (high rate credit cards, etc.) they want to pay down. No guesswork, no paperwork shuffle. As they select debts, our system automatically recalculates DTI to improve approval odds in real time. Once approved, we handle the rest: Cash proceeds are adjusted on the HUD, Creditors are paid off directly, borrowers get clean, fast results. No manual uploads. No client confusion. No follow-up chaos. It’s a smarter, smoother way to consolidate debt, and it’s all built into the NFTYDoor experience. Fast. Simple. Automated. Exclusively through Homebridge Wholesale and REMN Wholesale. Reach out to your AE or email Seth Cohen to get started.”

Let’s be honest, your team has better things to do than hunt down fees and credit card info. Lenders using Fee Chaser are streamlining upfront fee collection for credit reports, appraisals, and condo docs. It's all handled in one place and fully integrated with Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology™. The result? Happier borrowers, faster loan files, and fewer late-night “Did you pay this yet?” texts. See how Fee Chaser fits into your workflow.

Broker loan products

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“Fatten Up Your Pipeline with Summer Specials from LoanStream (DBA of OCMBC, Inc.) Up to 75 bps price improvement on Non-QM, FHA and VA loans locked July 1st – 31st, 2025. Includes 25 BPS Non-QM (all programs except DSCR 5-8) 75 BPS Improvement when combined with Non-QM Select & Closed End Seconds. 25 BPS Price Improvement on ALL FHA/VA (Excludes CalHFA can be combined with SELECT) Get 60 BPS when combined with our Select Government Special. Restrictions apply, talk to your AE. Learn more here. Plus, join our upcoming Webinar on Non-QM Expanded Programs that include changes to our P&L program and No Ratio DSCR on July 15th at 11AM PT. Join us for this informative session to help you expand your knowledge base and grow your pipeline. Register now as spots are limited.”

Foundation Mortgage is celebrating July 4th and a record-breaking first half of 2025 with its Stars, Stripes & Submissions promo, offering brokers who funded non-QM loans in June up to 37.5 bps in pricing credits on loans locked in July. Brokers who closed between $250K and $750K+ in June earn tiered credits, and those submitting Bank Statement loans under $750K receive an additional 12.5 bps, capped at 37.5 bps total. No sign-up required: credits are applied automatically. Contact your Foundation AE for details.

“Winning Wholesale is back, and this time, it’s all about cutting through the noise to find brokers who actually move the needle. Join us Tuesday, July 8 at 1:00 PM / 10 AM PT for Precision Prospecting for Wholesale Growth, an NMP Webinar built for wholesale executives, their marketing teams and AEs who are serious about scaling production in today’s competitive TPO market. You’ll learn how to identify active originators focusing on niches like non-QM using real mortgage data, why legacy sales models are stalling your growth, and how to shift to a smarter, data-driven prospecting approach. From prioritization strategies to CRM integration, this session is your playbook for finding the right brokers, cutting wasted time, and growing your wholesale volume with precision. If you’re ready to build a sharper pipeline and drive real results, register now by clicking here.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is now “up and going,” a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Webinars, training, and events this week

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Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

On today's episode of Now Next Later at 10am PT, Sasha and Jeremy welcome back Wendy Lee for a conversation about how servicing practices and real estate technology are adapting to today’s market challenges. They'll explore the potential for innovation to improve property disposition and support more attainable homeownership solutions.

Tuesday’s episode of MortgagePros411, at 2PM ET, Audrey and Kevin speak originator’s language. Tomorrow I’m on the show!

Register for Appraiser eLearning’s beginner’s map for appraisers who want to understand just enough about AI to keep their boots dry and their business alive. Register for A Field Guide to Getting Started Without Getting Lost, Tuesday, July 8th, 10AM – 11:30AM Central Time.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 9th at 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One featuring Kortney Lane-Schafers with MMI.

Learn how to treat AI not as a threat but as a tool and as a teammate. Register for Appraiser eLearning’s practical and engaging webinar on Wednesday, July 9th, 10AM – 11:30AM Central Time. Discover how AI is transforming the way real estate professionals work from mastering prompts that actually work to understanding how image-based AI interprets listing photos exploring real-world use cases for appraisers and agents alike.

Alexandra Steinberg Barrage of Morrison Foerster and Jai Massari of Arktouros are hosting the first in a series of conversations about stablecoins and the meaning of new laws for banks, fintechs, technology firms, and others who are in the business of money. This July 9th training opportunity is offered as a hybrid session, attend as a webinar or in-person: Virtual attendance - Wednesday, July 9th, Webinar: 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. or In-Person Attendance - Wednesday, July 9th, Webinar: 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. at Morrison Foerster, 2100 L Street, NW. Happy Hour begins at 5:00 p.m.

Thursday the 10th will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s show which features Sue Woodard and Bill Bodnar!

ACUMA’s Q3 Servicing Network Meeting! Register for the Thursday, July 10th at 1 PM EST collaborative discussion.

On Friday’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, hosts Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio explore recent shifts in the mortgage market, focusing on the spate of economic news that has hit the market and the latest out of the Agencies.

There are the National MI, ARCH MI, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and Enact training calendars.

Weather and climate related disaster news

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The earth's atmosphere hasn't had this much CO2 in millions of years. Does anyone care? Of course, even if you don’t, disasters still occur, and no one disagrees that the severity of storms around the world has increased.

The weather-related events in Texas (severe storms, straight-line winds, and flooding) has led to FEMA declaring certain counties disaster areas: DR-4879-TX. A disaster declaration triggers policy and procedure changes in lenders, servicers, and vendors. But of course, Texas is not alone…

FEMA Disaster Declarations: Tennessee DR-4878, Arkansas DR-4873, and Kentucky DR-4864.

On 6/20/2025, with Amendment No.2 to DR-4864, FEMA identified an Incident Period End Date of 5/16/2025 for Kentucky counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, flooding, landslides, & mudslides from 4/2/2025 to 5/16/2025. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20250606-CL for inspection requirements.

On 6/24/2025, with Amendment No. 1 to DR-4873, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to Arkansas’s Greene county affected by severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding from 4/2/2025 to 4/22/2025. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20250608-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

On 6/19/2025, with DR-4878, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to nine Tennessee counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding from 4/2/2025 to 4/24/2025. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20250605-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

Capital markets: U.S. trade move confusion back in the headlines

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The trading week closed on Thursday with the June employment report showing stronger-than-expected job growth at 147k and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent, driven by gains in education and healthcare. The resilience of the labor market reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance and diminished the likelihood of a rate cut later this month. Markets responded by pulling forward expectations for policy easing to September, particularly amid signs of weakening demand and rising inventories in manufacturing. Auto sales also continued to slow following earlier consumer and dealer activity to front-run tariffs. Slowing demand should eventually prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy sometime this fall.

Attention this week will be centered on trade developments, with President Trump confirming he would not extend the 90-day tariff pause and instead begin notifying trade partners of new tariff rates. The looming re-implementation of higher reciprocal tariffs, coupled with limited progress on trade deals, will likely test market sentiment, and threaten recent highs for equities.

This week’s calendar is light on data (including nothing of note today, unless you are a fan of the Employment Trends Index) with the focus being on refunding supply and the Fed minutes. The only notable releases are consumer credit, wholesale trade, and the Treasury budget statement. Treasury will auction $119 billion new 3-year notes, reopened 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds tomorrow to Thursday. The Fed minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon. The Agencies will release MBS prepayments after today’s close and into the evening, and Class A 48-hours is on Thursday. We begin post-Independence Day trading with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.87, and the 10-year yielding 4.36 after closing yesterday at 4.35 percent.

Hospital regulations require a wheelchair for patients being discharged. However, while working as a student nurse, I found one elderly gentleman already dressed and sitting on the bed with a suitcase at his feet, who insisted he didn't need my help to leave the hospital.

After a chat about rules being rules, he reluctantly let me wheel him to the elevator.

On the way down I asked him if his wife was meeting him.

“I don't know,” he replied. “She's still upstairs in the bathroom changing out of her hospital gown.”

(Thank you to Euie Hill for this one.)

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Beyond the Primary Market: How MBS and ABS Impact Lending Strategy.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.