6.25.25 Oil Price Seesaw; Polunsky Beitel Green's Marty Green on Conservatorship Exit; Treasury Demand

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through how oil prices and thus inflation and thus mortgage rates are being impacted by geopolitics in the Middle East. Plus, Robbie sits down with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green discuss why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's exit from conservatorship must be carefully structured to preserve market stability, and protect borrowers, lenders, and the broader economy. And we close with a look at what is driving demand at short-duration Treasury auctions.

Thank you to Optimal Blue. Optimal Blue bridges the primary and secondary mortgage markets to deliver the industry’s only end-to-end capital markets platform, helping lenders maximize profitability and operate efficiently so they can help American borrowers achieve the dream of homeownership. 

Transcript

AI doesn’t have an NMLS number. (Zillow has never, ever set foot in a house for that matter.) Do you own a computer? Most in lending do. Elon Musk? I guess not. A courtroom twist in Musk's war with OpenAI has revealed a stunningly bizarre detail about the self-described Techno King: His lawyers say that he doesn’t own a computer. (We know that President Trump has a telephone, and in fact the Trump Organization’s T1 phone is likely to be made in China.) A big topic at mortgage conferences is Artificial Intelligence. But AI seems to be becoming more lifelike. For example, Sesame AI is a “cutting-edge AI voice model that delivers natural and expressive speech synthesis. Perfect for content creators, developers, and businesses looking to add lifelike voices to their applications.” Send in some photos of yourself, and watch a film of you created saying the dialog you type in.) Scary. To no one’s surprise, a Microsoft study found that relying on AI kills your critical thinking skills. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB bridges the primary and secondary mortgage markets to deliver the industry’s only end-to-end capital markets platform, helping lenders maximize profitability and operate efficiently so they can help American borrowers achieve the dream of homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green on why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's exit from conservatorship must be carefully structured to preserve market stability, and protect borrowers, lenders, and the broader economy.)

Personnel news: jobs and legal woes

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“Visio Lending is hiring fully remote Loan Officers! As the nation’s #1 DSCR lender, ranked by Scotsman Guide’s 2025 Top Lender Rankings, we specialize in helping investors grow their rental portfolios. Our team includes two of National Mortgage Professional’s Top 25 Producers of 2024, and we’re looking to add more talent to our highly touted roster of mortgage professionals. We’re looking for motivated, experienced loan officers who want to thrive in a fast-paced, high-volume, investment-focused environment. At Visio, you’ll benefit from competitive compensation, strong marketing support, and resources to provide specialized lending expertise to real estate investors. Apply now and step into a high-growth role with the nation’s top DSCR lender!”

“Earn 75 bps commission as a Non-QM Wholesale Account Executive with NewPoint Mortgage. No tiers. No territories. Work from home. We have the technology, programs, and culture to make you the go-to expert your referral partners want. With over 20 years in non-QM, our operations staff understands how to support you in closing your difficult deals. Please contact Mike Fernandez at michael.fernandez@newpointmortgage.com to take advantage of this opportunity.”

Michael Collins, nCino’s Chief Marketing Officer, has been indicted for grand larceny and embezzling $6 million from two past employers through the use of falsifying invoices. Readers should know that this case is about an individual, not the company, and in fact nCino was a recent MBA “Premier Member.”

The Chrisman Job Board is live, the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, software, & services for brokers and lenders

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Are you listening to your clients? When they need fast cash from home equity, they’re not asking for a fixed-rate second. Borrowers prefer HELOCs 3x more… because they want flexibility. They want interest-only periods and a 30-year term because they’re cash-strapped. That’s the point of a HELOC: relief, not restriction. And with the Fed expected to cut rates this year, why lock them into a fixed rate? Give them the variable rate they actually want. NFTYDoor delivers digital HELOCs with all of the above: Interest-only period and 30-year term, variable rate, and available in all 50 states. Exclusively through Homebridge Wholesale and REMN. Talk to your AE or email to get started.

“Why Evocalize created the housing industry’s first Digital Co-Marketing Network. The heartbeat of housing has always been the relationship between local real estate agents and mortgage LOs. But the market is changing, fast. Automation and AI are reshaping the landscape, while giants like Rocket/Redfin, Lower/Movato, and Zillow are consolidating data and power, putting local professionals at risk of being left out of the process from the very start of the home-buying journey. Our housing Digital Co-Marketing Network is fundamentally transformative. It empowers agents and LOs to join forces in digital marketing, sharing costs equally, generating leads, and nurturing critical local relationships. We're giving local professionals the power to reclaim and redefine their growth on their terms. Read more.”

June is National Homeownership Month, and you can celebrate by helping more borrowers break through the affordability barrier with Kind’s in-house Down Payment Assistance programs. Built for speed and designed with brokers in mind, these programs eliminate outside delays and restrictive eligibility rules. Both DPA options start at a 600 FICO. Manual underwriting available - minimum FICO 660. No first-time buyer restriction - if they qualify, they benefit. Finance up to 101.5% - down payment and closing costs. 47-48 state coverage - nationwide reach, local impact. Kind’s DPA is lending without limits, and it’s exclusive to brokers partnered with us. Search “DPA” in Kwikie or contact your Kind AE today. Not an approved partner yet? Click here to get started!

India’s preparing to become the fourth nation to launch humans into space, and they’re not alone. From South Korea to the UAE, countries around the globe are reigniting a new era of exploration. The modern space race is back. And here on Earth, the race to lead in home equity lending is accelerating just as fast. As second lien volume surges, lenders face mounting pressure to move faster and operate more efficiently. That’s where FirstClose Equity comes in. With instant quoting and up to 70% faster time to close, FirstClose helps lenders capture more business, reduce fallout, and deliver the seamless experience today’s borrowers expect. Global powers are reaching for orbit. Lenders? They’re racing for market share. Read the blog.

The MSR market is anything but quiet. With fluctuating rates, shifting portfolio strategies and a steady stream of buy/sell activity, servicers and investors are looking for smarter ways to manage the deal workflow. In his latest blog, Covius Chief Revenue Officer Danny Byrnes takes a closer look at the key forces behind today’s MSR market activity and how Covius is helping clients stay ahead of the curve. From due diligence to post-sale integration, Covius is delivering the operational scale and tech-enabled precision needed to support faster, more efficient MSR transactions. Read more.

“Couldn’t make it to MQMR’s latest Servicing Compliance webinar? No worries, we hit record for you! In this session, Scott Weintraub shared practical, actionable insights for credit unions, banks, and independent servicers looking to strengthen their servicing compliance programs. He covered common risk areas like borrower communication, loss mitigation, and oversight gaps, and discussed how to approach these challenges with clarity, structure, and a member- or borrower-first mindset. If you didn’t catch it live, the full recording is available here now! It’s not too late to learn from the conversation: catch the full recording and explore how your servicing program stacks up against today’s best practices. If you haven’t started preparing for your MERS Annual Report, now’s the time: MQMR can help ensure your data integrity and control structure meet MERS compliance requirements!”

Brokers Advantage Mortgage, an innovator in non-agency loans and a leader in Closed-End Second mortgages has released its latest pricing enhancements designed to help brokers win with high-credit borrowers, purchase power, and flexible DSCR tools. Pricing improvements include up to 0.375% on 720+ FICO between 65-90% CLTV; .50% improvement on P&L and WVOE loans (1st liens); up to 0.375% on 3-5 Year PPPs CES Non-Owner and DSCR; and, up to 0.25% improvement on purchase transactions. In addition, we removed our rural hit for a 1.00% improvement. Shaped by decades of experience in alternative lending, Brokers Advantage can help you get more deals funded with the lens of infinite possibilities and expertise. To learn more and price out a deal, visit here or email us.

Are you looking to improve your pickup when trading TBAs? Lenders leveraging Agile’s Request-for-Quote platform have the ability to receive competitive bids from multiple dealers, maximizing pricing fluctuations, improving best execution, all while benefiting from extremely accurate monthly settlement data. With twenty-four dealers on the platform, lenders benefit from an average pickup of three bps on TBA trading along with zero monthly settlement issues. Additionally, Agile’s new pooling functionality delivers a fully transformed end-to-end workflow for MBS pool bidding within the same platform. Created in collaboration with dozens of dealers and lenders, this functionality eliminates the legacy inefficiencies of manual, disjointed processes and introduces a seamless, intelligent process for streamlined MBS pool bidding execution. Contact Agile today to learn more about their TBA RFQ digital platform and MBS pool bidding.

Relentless mergers and acquisitions

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Out of Montana and Texas came news yesterday that Glacier Bancorp, Inc. and Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. signed a definitive agreement where Glacier will acquire Guaranty in an all-stock transaction. “The acquisition marks Glacier's 27th bank acquisition since 2000 and its 13th announced transaction in the past 10 years. As of March 31, 2025, Guaranty had total assets of $3.2 billion, total gross loans of $2.1 billion and total deposits of $2.7 billion.”

Some time in the 4th quarter Guaranty shareholders are expected to receive 1.0000 share of Glacier stock for each Guaranty share (subject to adjustment under certain circumstances). “Based on the closing price of $41.58 for Glacier shares on June 23, 2025, the transaction would result in aggregate consideration of $476.2 million (inclusive of the value to Guaranty stock options) and value of $41.58 per Guaranty share. Upon closing of the transaction, which is anticipated to take place in the fourth quarter of 2025, Guaranty Bank & Trust will operate as a new banking division under the name ‘Guaranty Bank & Trust, Division of Glacier Bank,’ representing Glacier’s 18th separate bank division.”

Capital markets: dissecting the 2-year auction to gauge rates

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Bond markets held firm yesterday as oil prices dropped sharply amid escalating tensions from uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire declared by President Trump between Israel and Iran, giving back and then taking away some of the safe-haven premium for investors. Despite mutual accusations of violating the truce, oil prices have returned to pre-conflict levels, easing fears of an energy (and thus inflation) shock and helping sustain investor confidence, though the situation remains fluid. The extent to which Treasuries could cheapen, likely causing mortgage rates to rise, as a function of higher energy prices, is contingent on the ultimate impact on oil from the situation. Investor support for the inflation-friendly drop in oil prices was aided by an even-keeled Fed Chair Powell, who told the House Financial Services Committee that many paths are possible, one of which is that inflation could be cooler than expected, which would suggest the Fed could cut sooner.

President Trump has intensified his public campaign against Fed Chair Powell, urging Congress to pressure Powell, while he is providing testimony on Capitol Hill this week, into cutting interest rates by two to three percentage points and accusing him of harming the economy by keeping rates too high. While Powell remains committed to a cautious, data-dependent approach and reiterated that more time is needed to assess inflation and economic conditions, speculation is growing that the Trump administration could name a "shadow" Fed chair ahead of the 2026 transition, an unusual move that risks undermining central bank independence and could prompt volatility in longer-term interest rates. This comes as multiple Fed members in recent days have broken from the Federal Open Market Committee’s consensus to say that the Fed should begin cutting rates as soon as the next Fed meeting in July should we receive a benign PCE inflation reading later this week.

Treasuries “remained bid,” for the most part, digesting a solid-but-not-spectacular $69 billion 2-year note sale. The government sold these short-term bonds at an interest rate (or "stop") of 3.79 percent, which is a bit lower than what they’ve been selling for on average recently (4.08 percent). That’s good for the government, as it means it can borrow a little more cheaply. There was decent demand: investors bid for 2.58 times the amount of bonds offered, just shy of the recent average (2.62). A higher bid-to-cover ratio usually means stronger demand.

Who bought the bonds? Regular investors (non-dealers) bought a bit less than usual (86.8 percent versus a recent average of 88.9 percent). Within that group, "direct" bidders (like big money managers) bought more than normal (26.3 percent versus a recent average of 17.6 percent), while "indirects" (often foreign buyers) took less (60.5 percent versus a recent average of 71.3 percent). Dealers, who often buy leftovers, ended up with a bit more than usual (13.2 percent versus a recent average of 11.1 percent). Before the auction, bond prices were rising and yields falling, as demand was strong. After the auction, yields edged back up slightly, suggesting the market didn’t see the results as especially exciting.

On the data front, we learned yesterday that U.S. housing market data continued to soften this spring, with both the FHFA and Case-Shiller indexes showing larger-than-expected house price declines in April and early signs of further weakness in May. The FHFA Purchase-Only Index fell 0.4 percent in April, while the Case-Shiller 20-City Index dropped 0.3 percent, marking the slowest year-over-year gains since mid-2023. More current indicators, such as the Zillow House Value Index and median home prices, also point to declining momentum. We learned earlier this week that existing home sales remained sluggish at 4.03 million in May, with the listings-to-sales ratio hitting its highest level since 2016.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence dipped in June as job market perceptions weakened, and although some Fed officials are beginning to advocate for rate cuts, Chair Powell maintains a cautious stance. We are still seeing projections anywhere from no change to interest rates in the second half of 2025 to up to three cuts. Bond buyers returned in the wake of a consumer confidence report for June that was weaker than expected and showed a drop in average 12-month inflation expectations from 6.4 percent to 6.0 percent and underscoring anxiety about the expected impacts on the economy and job market from Trump’s trade war. This month’s retreat suggests consumers will remain guarded about their spending.

Though the highlight of today’s calendar will be Chair Powell returning to the Hill to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, the day commenced with Mortgage applications increasing 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 20, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.

Later today brings new home sales for May (expectations are for 690k versus 743k previously, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by $28 billion reopened 2-year FRNs, $70 billion 5-year notes, and a buyback in 7.5- to 30-year TIPS for up to $500 million. We begin Wednesday with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.80 and the 10-year yielding 4.31 after closing yesterday at 4.30 percent.

(Warning: Rated PG for language. No complaints please.)

A little girl was on summer break, and some guys showed up to work on the house across the street. Being the curious type, she decided to walk over and offer her help.

The guys said sure, of course she could, so they gave her little jobs to do all week. "Bring these screws over to Ray" and that sort of thing.

After the week was over, they decided to give her a little payment, and handed her an envelope with $50 in it. When she came home that day and showed Mommy her pay, Mommy suggested that they go to the bank and start a savings account.

They went to the bank, and the little girl proudly showed the money to the teller and told her she would like to start an account. The teller was impressed and asked, "Where did you get this money?"

"I was working on a house!" said the little girl.

The teller replied "Oh, and will you be working on the house next week, too?"

The little girl replied, "Yeah, if we ever get those f*&^% bricks from the g)**&% quarry."

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Beyond the Primary Market: How MBS and ABS Impact Lending Strategy.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)