6.20.25 Cyber Verification; Verisk's Kingsley Greenland on Catastrophe Modeling; No Rate Movement

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through the Fed's latest calculus surrounding its rate decision. Plus, Robbie sits down with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland to discuss why an unusually active hurricane season may collide with weakening forecasting infrastructure, leadership gaps at FEMA, and political headwinds. And we close with a look at why we didn't see much interest rate movement this week.

Thank you to TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) platform, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions.

Transcript

Happy Summer Solstice, and happy 50th birthday to the movie Jaws. Back then, for security, all we had to remember was where we hid our house key, or the combo to the lock on our school locker. Now, our dozens of logins and passwords are regularly either forgotten or stolen, the latest being 16 billion credentials stolen, announced this week. In other IT news, a few CIOs have written to me to point out that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that the Senate is debating contains a 10-year moratorium on changes to state artificial intelligence (AI) laws. 10 years? Given the rate of change, how about 10 days? The technology used to collect paystubs has certainly changed over the years, but what is the definition of a “paystub?” It turns out that the answer is not so simple, and, as Argyle’s Shmulik Fishman points out, varies by state! A good description of the information that should be included can be found here. It doesn’t help matters when there are dozens of companies that help individuals write their own paystub (aka, forge) for whatever purpose. Hence the rise of verification services. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an interview with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland on why an unusually active hurricane season may collide with weakening forecasting infrastructure, leadership gaps at FEMA, and political headwinds.)

Jobs coast to coast

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“We’re proud to announce that SWBC Mortgage has been named a 2025 Home Possible RISE Awards® winner by Freddie Mac in the “Fastest Growth” category for Regional Independent Mortgage Banker! The Home Possible Recognizing Individuals for Sustained Excellence (RISE) Awards celebrate lenders who excel in originating Home Possible® and HFA Advantage® loans, programs that help make homeownership more accessible and sustainable for low- to moderate-income borrowers. This recognition reflects our company’s commitment to empowering borrowers and overcoming affordability challenges through responsible lending. SWBC Mortgage earned this honor based on loan volume growth between the first and second halves of 2024. We’re not just growing, we’re RISING! If you're passionate about helping people achieve their dream of homeownership and want to be part of an award-winning team, SWBC Mortgage is the place for you. Reach out to Scott Brown, EVP – National Retail Sales, at (615) 260-2382 for more information.”

“Visio Lending is hiring FULLY REMOTE Loan Officers! As the nation’s #1 DSCR lender, ranked by Scotsman Guide’s 2025 Top Lender Rankings, we specialize in helping investors grow their rental portfolios. Our team includes two of National Mortgage Professional’s Top 25 Producers of 2024, and we’re looking to add more talent to our highly touted roster of mortgage professionals. We’re looking for motivated, experienced loan officers who want to thrive in a fast-paced, high-volume, investment-focused environment. At Visio, you’ll benefit from competitive compensation, strong marketing support, and resources to provide specialized lending expertise to real estate investors. Apply now and step into a high-growth role with the nation’s top DSCR lender!”

“Churchill Mortgage is excited to announce additional growth, welcoming Brian Chick & Luke Easterly as Senior Vice Presidents. With over 40 years of combined experience and results, their involvement will play a key role in Churchill Mortgage’s continued growth across our central and west divisions. “We are thrilled to add Brian & Luke to our team. Their expertise and enthusiasm have already brought such a positive outlook for their regions. 2025 continues to be a promising year at Churchill,” said Kelly Lee, Executive Vice President, National Production for Churchill Mortgage. With our growing team of exceptional leaders, we’re excited about our future. Churchill Mortgage, a debt-free company of over 30 years, has a sound leadership team AND is an E.S.O.P! With employees as owners, we’re a company of leaders, laser-focused on the success of our team & customers. If this mentality interests you, learn more about us here. We would love to speak with you about opportunities in your area.”

“From the Ground Up: Building LO Confidence Through Construction Lending. Construction loans don’t have to be complicated. At Evergreen Home Loans™, our streamlined systems, hands-on support, and dedicated construction resources help loan officers succeed from day one. With team-based guidance and consistent marketing tools, Evergreen makes it easier for LOs to break into the construction space—or scale what they’ve already started. It’s one more way we’re helping loan officers grow their business, and one more reason they’re joining Evergreen. Discover your blueprint for success: discoverEHL.com Contact us today: Todd Miles.”

The Chrisman Job Board is live, the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, software, & services for brokers and lenders

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You wouldn’t fly blind. So why fund loans that way? When the stakes are high, you need visibility, not guesswork. Class Valuation Analysis (CVA) is your radar for collateral risk: a fast, USPAP-compliant appraisal review conducted by licensed appraisers and powered by data-driven insight. Whether you're prepping for MSR trades, navigating repurchase exposure, or fine-tuning quality control, CVA brings clarity when you need it most. It’s Rating Agency accepted, capital markets and lender ready, and built by the nation’s largest valuation provider so that you can trust the view ahead. Stop second-guessing your appraisals. See what CVA can do for your lending decisions!

“Heard of NFTYDoor? We’re a mortgage fintech platform backed by Homebridge Financial Services, offering the fastest and simplest digital HELOC in all 50 states, available as wholesale broker or correspondent, and exclusively distributed via Homebridge Wholesale and REMN Wholesale. We’re on pace to pay out over $50M in commissions this year to MLOs for the most streamlined HELOCs you’ll ever do, and for a product your clients need today. Not only can you earn quick commissions, but you also position yourself for future refi and purchase cycles by offering a best-in-class product today. See it to believe it. Reach out to your Homebridge Wholesale or REMN Wholesale AE or email seth@nftydoor.com to learn more about NFTYDoor.”

In today’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, and Courtney Thompson will unpack the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady and react to FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s call for Chair Jerome Powell to resign. They'll also dive into Bayview’s $1.3 billion acquisition of Guild Holdings and highlight key moves in the sports world, including the Lakers’ ownership change and the Tigers’ league-leading record.

The Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry, is up and going. The site features third-party providers offering powerful partnerships and solutions driving innovation in the space. We’ll be adding new vendors daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Behind the scenes, AI is at work

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In Reimagining Mortgage Manufacturing: The Rise of Background AI, Steve Butler explores how quiet, behind-the-scenes artificial intelligence is poised to transform the mortgage industry, not by replacing people but by eliminating the friction they face. Moving beyond hype and half-measures, Butler outlines how full-stage automation can revolutionize loan processing, from document indexing to instant approvals. If you're ready to see what real AI-driven efficiency looks like in action and how it can finally deliver on decades of broken tech promises, this article is a must-read.

Climate news, disasters, and financial losses are not letting up

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President Trump appointed David Richardson to FEMA… And then news came out that the staff of the Federal Emergency Management Agency were confused and dispirited after the acting head of the agency said during a daily briefing that he had not been aware the country has a hurricane season, according to three sources familiar with the meeting.

You don’t have to live on the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast or in “Tornado Alley” to face high property insurance costs. At least one state in each of the nation’s four census regions (the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West) made the list of the most expensive in which to insure a mortgaged home. Property insurance costs for mortgaged homes, property insurance costs without a mortgage, States with low-cost property insurance, and selected monthly owner costs.

Learn more, view United States Census Bureau’s America Counts: Stories Behind the Numbers.

Cutting back staffing doesn’t change Mother Nature. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, following a devastating 2024 season that saw 18 named storms. Of these, 11 developed into hurricanes and five intensified into major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes, including Hurricane Helene. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes until November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

As the Atlantic hurricane season begins, meteorologists are working to improve forecasting and warnings for the hazard that causes the most hurricane deaths: freshwater flooding. With climate change, storms are becoming bigger and wetter and are bringing large amounts of rain to inland areas, often with deadly consequences. At least 249 people died during Hurricane Helene and its aftermath, according to the National Hurricane Center. Of those, 94 fatalities are attributed to rainfall flooding. The housing crunch is North Carolina is even worse.

PHH Mortgage Corporation posted a new disaster declaration for Missouri DR-4876. Review PHH announcements for all disaster declared counties, requirements, procedures, and conditions.

On 6/9/2025, with DR-4867, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to three Missouri counties affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding on 5/16/2025. View AmeriHome Mortgage 20250602-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

Capital markets: lots of news this week has not budged rates!

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As was universally expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday held the federal funds target unchanged at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. This marks six months of no rate changes after the FOMC cut the target a full percentage point between September and December 2024. Fed Chair Powell warned that tariff-driven economic uncertainty and inflation risk continued to complicate the central bank’s bid to ease monetary policy in earnest. However, updated projections revealed a more cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty.

The Fed Chair reinforced that the Fed needs more clarity before acting, especially on the inflationary impact of the recent tariff hikes. He pointed out that although the current labor market and inflation levels look relatively healthy, future risks from trade policy and geopolitical conflict could push inflation higher and weaken job growth. These stagflation-like threats are difficult for the Fed to counter effectively. Powell stressed that while the economy gives the Fed the luxury of patience, the costs of tariffs will eventually be passed along to consumers, adding to inflation pressures.

Bill Pulte, the head of the federal agency responsible for overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but does not oversee the Federal Reserve, promptly called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign. Donald Trump suggested appointing himself to the Federal Reserve, and called Powell destructive and a “real dummy.”

Markets, meanwhile, are less patient. Futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will become more dovish (possibly after Powell’s term ends in mid-2026) but are still pricing in nearly 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. Some argue that the Fed is simply aligning its forecasts with market expectations, using the dot plot as a communication tool rather than a policy commitment. But the market’s faith in the Fed’s steady-hand approach may waver if the economic fallout from tariffs and conflict proves more severe than projected. While investors pore over every word from the FOMC, it’s clear that the real drivers of rate policy may lie outside the Fed’s control.

Residential construction is slowing down as builders and developers face high borrowing costs, ongoing economic uncertainty, and tough supply conditions. In May, housing starts dropped 9.8 percent, mostly due to a steep decline in apartment and condo projects, which tend to fluctuate more. Single-family home construction inched up a bit, but overall building activity fell to an annual pace of 1.26 million units, the lowest level since the height of the pandemic in 2020. On top of that, fewer building permits and declining builder confidence point to more weakness ahead. While home building has held up surprisingly well despite years of high interest rates, it now seems that those rates are finally starting to slow things down more noticeably.

Following yesterday’s Juneteenth holiday, markets returned today to an economic calendar that was kicked off by Philadelphia Fed manufacturing. Later today brings leading indicators for May. It is worth noting that after the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged (surprising no one and angering President Trump), yesterday the Bank of England also held its key rate, the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark rate to zero and signaled it’s ready to go deeper to protect the franc, and Norway’s Norges Bank surprisingly cut borrowing costs too.

Yesterday’s market holiday and what’s sure to be a lightly attended session today imply that the post-Fed reaction should set a tone that will carry into early next week, barring more dramatic news from the Middle East. Monday the 2-year was yielding 3.97 and the 10-year was at 4.44; We begin today with Agency MBS prices are little changed from the last trading day, the 2-year yielding 3.96, and the 10-year yielding 4.42 after closing Wednesday at 4.40 percent.

A turtle is crossing the road when he’s mugged by two snails.

When the police show up, they ask him what happened. The shaken turtle replies, “I don’t know. It all happened so fast.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Beyond the Primary Market: How MBS and ABS Impact Lending Strategy.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)