6.6.25 Deal or No Deal; Jake Perkins on Chrisman Marketplace; Payrolls Friday

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through the art of the deal. Plus, Robbie sits down with Jake Perkins to discuss the new Chrisman Marketplace and how it is adding value to the industry. And the first Friday of the month means that it's payrolls data day.

Today’s episode is sponsored by CreditXpert—the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Download your free copy of the credit optimization playbook today at creditxpert.com/chrisman. 

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Today is the 81st anniversary of D-Day. “My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst mechanic the Luftwaffe ever had.” On the anniversary of D-Day, let’s hope the entire world is not involved in a war again, although humans have had a recurring theme of conflict. Scaling things down significantly but keeping with the “recurring” theme… Lenders hope that applications and locks are recurring, but it is continuing to be sketchy. According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances decreased 12% week over week and decreased 28% in May; the purchase index decreased 16% week over week and increased 6% for May as a whole. But in May 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 12% YoY and increased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures, and drills into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Jake Perkins on the new Chrisman Marketplace and how it is adding value to the industry.)

Products, software, and services for lenders

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Following a highly successful launch, Origination Boost, spearheaded by Mandi Feely-Swain, EVP of Premier Mortgage Resources and Idaho’s #1 Loan Originator, is proving to be a game-changer for loan officers. Now in its second year, Origination Boost is not just maintaining momentum; it’s raising the bar and helping loan officers move closer to their goals. The program’s twice-monthly coaching calls continue to offer tactical strategies and high-level mindset coaching, keeping participants laser-focused on results. The exclusive Origination Boost app adds even more value, offering on-the-go accountability tools and tracking systems that drive measurable production increases. Feely-Swain recently announced new incentives for those participating in Origination Boost, including free marketing services when goals are met. Learn more: info@pmrloans.com.

“APB Wholesale: Where Non-QM Isn’t Plan B… It’s Our Game Plan! Big banks said no? We say: let’s go. APB Wholesale is built for brokers who don’t take no for an answer. With instant scenario pricing, 24-hour decisions, and smart non-QM products like DSCR and VOE-only, we’re giving you the power to close more loans, especially the ones that don’t fit in a neat little box. We’re backed by American Pride Bank and driven by one mission: help brokers win again and again. Become an approved broker today and visit apbwholesale.com.

Independent mortgage bankers may be leaving money on the table, but a smarter accounts payable process can help reclaim it. Western Alliance Bank’s commercial credit card program automates AP, spending, and travel and expense management, saving time, increasing accuracy, and even generating revenue share. Robust reporting and fast reconciliation also free up staff hours for higher-value tasks. As Chris Martin, director of treasury management sales for Western Alliance Bank’s Specialized Mortgage Services Group, explains in this article, reevaluating legacy workflows can improve visibility and reduce operational friction. The Western Alliance team brings 15+ years of experience in the mortgage sector, offering warehouse lending, MSR financing, note financing, customized cash management tools and a whole loan trading desk focused on purchasing scratch & dent loans (send bid requests to SnD@westernalliancebank.com). With tailored solutions, advanced analytics and strong fraud protection, Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC, helps IMBs improve margins and operate more efficiently.

“Spring EQ just made it easier to compete, even with banks and credit unions, to help your borrowers access their home equity. We’ve dropped HELOC rates by 25 bps across the board, and well-qualified borrowers can now access a HELOC at the Prime rate + 0% margin. We’ve also reduced FIXLINE rates across every bucket, with some cuts as steep as 90 bps. And if you’re looking to speed up your process even more, register for our upcoming webinar on June 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET. We’ll show you how to master the quick close. Whether your borrowers need cash for home upgrades, debt consolidation, or big expenses, now’s the time to offer smarter solutions backed by faster closings and more competitive pricing. Let’s work together to help more borrowers maximize their home’s value: Wholesale Partnership | Correspondent Partnership.”

The U.S. Bank Correspondent and Warehouse Lending teams thank their current and prospective clients who shared time with our teams at the MBA Secondary and Capital Markets Conference. We also extend our sincere appreciation to our Housing Finances Agency partners with whom we engaged at the recent NALHFA Conference. If we missed the chance to connect, we encourage you to contact your account executive or visit our website U.S. Bank to find future conferences and events we’ll be attending. As your trusted advisor, U.S. Bank Correspondent and HFA Lending is vested in helping lenders grow by continued investment in our business and in yours. Helping you drive success in your business is what drives us every day.

Anyone looking for mortgage technology or service providers can explore the new Chrisman Marketplace, a curated hub connecting lenders with trusted industry partners.

Learnin’, trainin’, and conference-goin’ over the next few weeks

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Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

On today's episode of Last Word at 10am PT, hosts Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, and Kevin Peranio explore recent shifts in the mortgage market, focusing on the PCE report's implications for inflation and rising mortgage rates.

Technology and innovation in residential lending are the focus of Now Next Later Monday at 1pm ET. Hear from Jeremy Potter!

The 2025 MISMO Spring Summit is happening June 9 -12 in Boston, MA. Engage with industry leaders and explore how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is shaping the future of mortgage standards and data exchange.

From June 10-12, in St. Petersburg, Florida, join MBAF’s 21st Annual Eastern Secondary Conference and 71st Annual Convention! Always well attended and informative!

Tuesday’s episode of MortgagePros411, at 2PM ET, Audrey and Kevin speak originator’s language.

Join ACUMA's Underwriting Network Q2 Meeting on Tuesday, June 10th at 1 PM EST

Discussion topics include How DOGE and recent government changes are influencing underwriting and lending. Fannie Mae’s latest Desktop Underwriter (DU) updates for condo approvals. Introduction of a new dynamic appraisal format, and what it could mean for your processes.

On Tuesday, June 10 at 1PM ET / 10AM PT, NMP presents "Reinventing the Sales Playbook in Wholesale Lending", the first session in the Winning Wholesale series. This discussion features Kristopher Martin of Oaktree Funding Corp, Linn Cook of OptifiNow, Dale Larson III of Modex, and NMP’s Andrew Berman as they reveal how top lenders are shifting from field sales to scalable, inside sales strategies. Register here.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 14th at 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One.

Register for USDA’s free, live, virtual training, "Boost Loan Accuracy and Speed", Thursday, June 12, 2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. ET

Join Agile on June 12th at 11AM PT for its latest webinar, Outsmart the Chaos: How Top Firms Are Fixing MBS Pooling. In this webinar, Agile’s Greg Vacura, Tawab Abawi, and Sam Farmer will walk through real-world scenarios, from managing dealer bids to simplifying swap allocations, and show how lenders can achieve operational efficiency through intelligent automation. This session will highlight the challenges lenders face today when managing MBS pool bidding and demonstrate how a centralized, automated, and more intelligent solution can improve efficiency and execution. Register for the webinar or contact Agile to learn more.

Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show.

There’s the National MI, ARCH MI, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and Enact training calendars.

The MBA of Eastern PA is hosting a summer party called Trifecta on June 17 in Conshohocken, PA for anyone in the Pennsylvania housing industry: mortgage, real estate, title, and builders. If you want an opportunity to meet and network with Realtors in a social fun atmosphere, this is the event for you. Click here to register now!

Credit unions take note: June 16-17 ALM is offering up its 2025 Derivatives Symposium at the Hotel Vin in Grapevine, TX. “Join us for an in-depth exploration of derivative instruments and their critical role in risk management.”

Mortgage and compliance professionals won’t want to miss the 2025 National Settlement Services Summit (NS3), happening June 16–18 at The Westin Pittsburgh. This premier industry event features dynamic speaker Brian Carter (AI expert, business strategist, and comedian) who will deliver practical and ethical insights on leveraging AI while keeping your team ready and resilient. Attendees will also benefit from face-to-face time with state and federal regulators, earn CE/CLE credits (pending approval), and enjoy exclusive networking opportunities. Don’t miss this chance to stay ahead of regulatory trends and tech innovation. Learn more and register today at NS3TheSummit.com.

CLA’s complimentary webinar, Tuesday June 17, 11 a.m. – noon CT, provides insights to help bank leaders prepare and address additional FDICIA requirements as your bank grows and crosses the $500 million or $1 billion asset thresholds. Webinar will cover key impacts including changes in audit committee composition, audit and reporting requirements, and compliance with internal control documentation and testing standards. Also, recommended practices to effectively address these additional requirements as your bank is approaching these thresholds.

MORTGAGE POSSIBLE: The Awakening, an event mortgage professionals won't want to miss. Join MBA Hawaii Annual Conference for a packed 2-day agenda of great speakers, onolicious food and lively networking June 17 and 18 at the Prince Waikiki. Register by April 30 for Early Bird pricing. MBAH members get discounted tickets. Not a member yet? Sign up on our website here: Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii.

Join TMBA in welcoming Ed Peace, Loan & Finance Analyst with the Lender & Partner Activities Division of the USDA, on June 18, at 11:30am CDT, for an exclusive USDA training webinar. Elevate your expertise in USDA loan programs with this must-attend webinar, hosted by the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association and presented by the USDA. This session will equip you with the knowledge and tools to navigate the USDA loan process with confidence.

Housing, Humor & Headwinds—What’s Elliot Thinking? Join CoAMP and Elliot Eisenberg, the Bowtie Economist, for a virtual economic update, Wednesday, June 19th at 10am. Cost: Early Bird CoAMP Member Price through May 31st-$25; $35 starting June 1st; Future Member is $95, which includes a one-year membership to CoAMP.

Join MBA St. Louis at the MBA event on Wednesday, June 18th, 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

for a special Strategy Lab session focused on building and marketing your personal brand as a mortgage professional. Walk away with clear, actionable steps to stand out and grow your visibility.

Capital markets: another set of decent payroll data

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The US economy is showing signs of strain as the latest round of data provides negative surprises, and business executives are losing confidence in the economic outlook, a reversal from the buoyant mood after President Trump’s reelection. However, a lot of recent data figures were produced under massive tariff uncertainty. Progress toward a China/U.S. trade deal has effectively come to a standstill, and nobody truly knows how long the process will ultimately take and whether opposing sides are operating on vastly different timelines. These constantly changing U.S. trade threats will cloud not only consumer and investor sentiment, but also policymakers’ attempts to map out new economic projections. 

There’s growing attention on how the GOP’s spending plans and Trump’s tariff proposals might impact Treasury issuance and inflation. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the tariffs could reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion, those figures come with high uncertainty due to the unprecedented scale of the proposed tariffs and lack of historical precedent. We learned yesterday that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in April, shrinking more than 55 percent to $61.6 billion, the smallest since 2023 and the largest monthly decline on record, due to a historic drop in imports. 

This steep reversal reflects the end of a temporary surge in goods front-loaded by companies racing to beat higher tariffs from Trump’s trade policies. As that pull-forward in demand subsides, the trade balance correction not only offsets the earlier first-quarter widening but also points to a likely boost for second-quarter economic growth. However, until the U.S. reaches key bilateral trade agreements, the actual change in tariff rates, and their fiscal impact, remains unclear. This uncertainty complicates predictions about how the spending agenda will ultimately be funded, especially if legal challenges delay tariff implementation.

A pre-NFP client survey by BMO showed that a majority of market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at some point in 2025, though a notable minority anticipates no policy change. Opinions on the potential impact of the proposed ‘Revenge Tax’ are mixed, with concern levels generally centered around moderate apprehension. Regarding long-term interest rates, most respondents believe the lower bound (4.46 percent) for 30-year Treasury yields has likely already been reached, while further upward movement is expected before year-end (estimated 5.25 percent), suggesting continued volatility in the long bond market. There is solace to be taken in 10-year yields slipping back below 4.35 percent, but it’s far too soon from the perspective of the economic data to begin worrying about a consumer-led slowdown in the US economy. Treasuries edged higher yesterday as traders got a boost from Japan, where a government bond auction went well.

Today’s employment report has become a more significant wildcard than was assumed at the start of the week, as a move toward softer employment would certainly dovetail well with a more constructive outlook on the Treasury market. Payrolls increased 139k versus 147k in April and 125k expectations. Employers were expected to have added jobs at a more modest pace in May as businesses waited to see how tariff policies ultimately settle. The unemployment rate (4.2 percent) when it was seen holding steady at 4.2 percent. Hourly earnings were +.4 percent, +3.9 percent year-over-year. The only other data point is consumer credit for April, due out this afternoon. After payroll data Agency MBS prices are worse about .125 from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.96, and the 10-year yielding 4.42 after closing yesterday at 4.39 percent.

A major arrives at a remote post. “Where’s your lieutenant?” he asks a private.

“Sir, there isn’t a lieutenant assigned to this post.”

“I was told there was.”

“No, sir, no lieutenant here.”

“I’m pretty sure there is.”

The private thinks about it for a moment. “Well, Major, if I may ask you a question, imagine you took the word ‘rifle’ and removed the letter ‘f’, what would remain?”

“Well, ‘rile’ I suppose.”

“That’s what I thought. And sir, if you took the word ‘draft’ and removed the letter ‘f’, what would remain?”

Amused, the major answers, “‘Drat’ I guess.”

“And sir, if you took the word ‘lieutenant’ and removed the letter ‘f’, what would remain?”

The major says, “There is no ‘f’ in lieutenant.”

“That’s what I have been trying to tell you, sir. There is no effin’ lieutenant.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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