6.5.25 Insurer Trends; Rob Chrisman on GSE Mixed Messages; Economic Predictions

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we go through some surprising insurance trends. Plus, Robbie sits down with Rob Chrisman to discuss how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry. And we close with a look at the latest predictions about the demise of the economy.

Today’s episode is sponsored by CreditXpert—the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Download your free copy of the credit optimization playbook today at creditxpert.com/chrisman. 

Transcript

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today's podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.)

Products, software, and services for lenders

_________________________________________________

The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

“What Makes APB Wholesale Different? Everything. At APB Wholesale, we know what brokers actually need: speed, flexibility, and a team that picks up the phone. That’s why we deliver fast approvals, real-time pricing, and smart portfolio products like VOE-only and DSCR loans built for real-life borrowers. If it makes sense, we’ll get it done. Backed by American Pride Bank and powered by a crew with 200+ years of combined experience, we’re not here to slow you down… We’re here to help you close! Become an approved broker today and visit apbwholesale.com.”

The wholesale mortgage sales model is being rewritten, and the winners are already adapting. On Tuesday, June 10 at 1PM ET / 10AM PT, NMP presents "Reinventing the Sales Playbook in Wholesale Lending", the first session in the Winning Wholesale series. This high-impact discussion features Kristopher Martin of Oaktree Funding Corp, Linn Cook of OptifiNow, Dale Larson III of Modex, and NMP’s Andrew Berman as they reveal how top lenders are shifting from field sales to scalable, inside sales strategies. You'll learn what the leading wholesale lenders are doing to build a high-volume sales workflow, target top brokers using real-time market intelligence, and leverage marketing automation to close more deals, all while navigating the new dynamics shaping wholesale. If you're serious about scaling production and owning the broker relationship in 2025, register here.

Are you tired of wrestling with systems that weren’t built to work together? There’s a smarter way to make things stick. Velcro was inspired by burs stuck to a dog’s fur. Decades later, it helped hold a human heart together during the first artificial-heart surgery. Seriously. One simple idea, endlessly adaptable. Tropos was built with that same spirit. This borrower portal lets you snap in just the features you need, when you need them. No rip-and-replace, no rigid workflows. Just a better fit for your lending ops and a digital experience that sticks. Snap Tropos into place.

News from “non-vanilla loan land”

_________________________________________________

“A wise man once said, ‘A true HELOC product is the Swiss Army Knife of the mortgage originator’s toolkit!’ Whether it’s a Piggyback or a Stand-Alone, the utility of a true HELOC with a 10-year draw period is the perfect solution to maximize the value proposition for your clients. Among other great features, the Rhyze HELOC supports CLTVs up to 89.99 percent, FICOs as low at 660, line amounts up to $750,000, and underwriting standards that align to FNMA and FHLMC. Eligible for all states except NY and TX. Terms and conditions that compete with localized financial institutions. And best of all, a program and process that is built for a win-win-win. To learn more, contact us via online inquiry, email us, and bookmark our new Rhyze Residential Website.”

“Week of groceries: $150. Utility bill: $300. Credit card interest? Don’t ask. 47 percent of adults aged 50+ with credit card debt use their cards to cover basic living expenses like food, utilities, and healthcare. Finance of America’s reverse second-lien mortgage, HomeSafe Second, helps homeowners 55+ tap into their home equity to access cash for everyday expenses with no impact on their low-rate first mortgage. With our ReverseMatch service, we can help you quickly find eligible homeowners in your database. Try it now. The borrower must meet all loan obligations, including meeting all loan obligations under the first lien mortgage, living in the property as the principal residence and paying property charges, including property taxes, fees, hazard insurance. The borrower must maintain the home. If the homeowner does not meet these loan obligations, then the loan will need to be repaid. Finance of America | NMLS #2285”

Yup, Megan Castleton, the chief credit officer at wholesale lender Constructive Capital, observes, “Brokers are looking for the next thing to be able to provide not only for their families, but for their customers. You have to be able to evolve, or you're going to go the way of the dinosaur.” There is plenty going on outside of Fannie, Freddie, VA, USDA, and FHA fixed-rate products. Who’s doing what in various products or with down payment assistance?

JMAC Lending’s Down Payment Assistance program provides an FHA first with a 3.5 percent or 5.0 percent DPA that can go toward the down payment and/or closing costs. Watch JMAC’s Video on FHA Down Payment Assistance.

United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) is offering 5/1 FHA and VA adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). These loans offer an initial fixed interest rate for the first 5 years, which then adjusts annually based on current market conditions. With this product, mortgage brokers can typically offer lower initial interest rates and monthly payments compared to a fixed mortgage, giving borrowers the opportunity to save more money.

AmeriHome Mortgage announced that Mandatory Forward Trade Commitments are now available as a new commitment option. View 20250505-CL Secondary Announcement for details.

An important change to MLPA and Loan Purchase Process is described in Pennymac Announcement 25-59, effective July 1, 2025. 

Fifth Third Correspondent Lending Communiqué Edition 25-3 has the following topics: Washington, DC Expansion, VA Products: IRRRL Non-Credit Qualifying FICO and VVOE and Fifth Third Correspondent Lending Portal Transition Reminder – Investor Connect.

This AmeriHome Mortgage General Announcement 20250516-CL summarizes previously published changes made during May, additional changes made with this announcement, and recent Agency and regulatory news.

Effective with new commitments taken on or after May 27, 2025, AmeriHome published guideline updates applicable to Non-QM Expanded and Non-QM DSCR programs. For details, view AmeriHome Mortgage Product Announcement 20250515-CL.

theLender is leveling up its lending game with the superNONI. Designed for experienced investors, this supercharged product features asset depletion on DSCR, loan amounts up to $2.0M, and LTVs up to 80 percent. With better pricing and flexibility than the nearNONI, the superNONI delivers serious strength for long-term rental financing all while keeping the same great NONI guidelines you know and trust.

Help clients access equity without refinancing with Freedom Mortgage Wholesale’s new Advanced Second mortgage program is a powerful refinancing alternative to enhance your offerings and better serve your clients. Borrowers with first mortgages owned by Freddie Mac can Access Funds of up to $78,277 for renovations, debt consolidation, big purchases, and more. Maintain their First Mortgage Rate by obtaining a second mortgage. Secure Predictable Payments with a fixed interest rate amortized over 20 years. Note: The first mortgage must be owned by Freddie Mac. Confirm on this website.

Capital markets: back to worries of a slowing economy

_________________________________________________

Want a lift of 25 basis points? Zach Ellis, Trader at MCT, notices an average of 25 BPS for clients switching from best efforts to mandatory loan sales. With 12 years of experience, Zach has helped numerous clients uncover hedging strategies to improve profitability through MCTlive! In a new video, Zach illustrates the ease of transitioning from best effort to mandatory with support from MCT's fully-managed hedge advisory and its custom reporting tools. Watch the video to see how MCT is increasing profitability and efficiency for their clients. Learn how to manage risk when switching to mandatory delivery by refreshing your knowledge on moving to mandatory.

Shifting to the debt markets and therefore interest rates, bonds and MBS rallied after the latest tariff escalation, as President Trump officially doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 percent. While financial markets digested the news with relative optimism, labor market data painted a more cautious picture. ADP’s May employment report showed just 37k jobs added, far below the expected 114k, raising concerns that trade uncertainty and tighter financial conditions may be cooling hiring appetite. Tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for May will be key to determining whether this softness is an anomaly or an early sign that tariffs and restrictive monetary policy are starting to bite. Meanwhile, wage growth remains firm for both job-stayers and changers, though a dip in the “quits rate” from 2.1 percent to 2.0 percent suggests some moderation in labor market churn and, potentially, wage inflation ahead.

The economic resilience seen earlier this year, buoyed by strong consumer activity and solid GDP projections, had supported the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rate cuts. Recent labor market softening, however, coupled with ongoing trade tensions, complicates the outlook. The Fed faces a delicate balance: cutting rates prematurely could undermine its credibility in fighting inflation, while waiting too long might risk a sharper economic slowdown if hiring and consumer confidence weaken further. Futures markets still price in roughly 50-basis points of rate cuts by year-end. For now, both the Fed and investors remain in wait-and-see mode, namely, to see how much economic momentum fades.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with U.S.-based employers announcing 93,816 job cuts in May, down 12 percent from 105,441 cuts in April, and up 47 percent from 63,816 announced in the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. We’ve also received the April trade deficit ($61.6 billion, less than half of last month’s), weekly jobless claims (247k, up from 239k, 1.904 million continuing claims), and updated Q1 productivity (a negative number, not good for the U.S. in general) and unit labor costs (+6 percent).

Later today brings the details of the mini-refunding (consisting of $58 billion 3-year notes, $39 billion reopened 10-year notes, and $22 billion reopened 30-year bonds). Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from at least three Fed speakers. The ECB was out with its latest monetary policy decision (a 25-basis point cut) earlier this morning, and ECB head Lagarde’s press conference is under way. In the U.S. we begin Thursday after this spate of news with Agency MBS prices slightly better than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.83, and the 10-year yielding 4.32 after closing yesterday at 4.36 percent.

An Admiral who lost one of his ears in an accident and was very sensitive about his appearance was interviewing a Navy Master Chief, an Aviation Master Chief, and a Marine Sergeant Major for his personal staff.

The first Master Chief was a Surface Navy type, and it was a great interview. At the end of the interview the Admiral asked him, “Do you notice anything different about me?"

The Master Chief answered, "Why, yes, Admiral. I couldn't help but notice that you are missing your starboard ear, so I imagine this impacts your hearing on that side."

The Admiral got very angry and threw him out of his office.

The next candidate, an Aviation Master Chief, when asked this same question, answered, "Well yes, Sir, you seem to be short one ear."

The Admiral threw him out as well.

The third interview was with a Marine Sergeant Major. He was articulate, extremely sharp, and seemed to know more than the two Master Chiefs put together.

The Admiral wanted this guy but went ahead with the same question. "Do you notice anything different about me?"

To his surprise, the Sergeant Major said, "Yes sir. You wear contact lenses."

The Admiral was impressed and thought to himself, what an incredibly tactful Marine.

“And how would you know that?" the Admiral asked.

The Sergeant Major replied: “Well, sir, it's pretty hard to wear glasses with only one ear.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.