6.3.25 Conferenced Out; Cotality's Molly Boesel on Single Family Rentals; Trump's Trade War Continues

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we determine just how many conferences is too many for the industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with Cotality’s Molly Boesel to discuss what is
driving the recent rise in single-family rents, why high-end rentals are outpacing lower-end growth, and how local events, new supply, and regional dynamics are shaping rent trends across U.S. cities. And we close with a look at the latest from President Trump's trade war.

Today’s episode is sponsored by CreditXpert—the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Download your free copy of the credit optimization playbook today at creditxpert.com/chrisman. 

Transcript

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My cat Myrtle never seemed to listen, but heard lots. LOs can hear the difference, when dealing with a borrower, between “What is your rate?” versus “Can you help me?” Hearing is important, listening even more so. “Rob, are you hearing that the industry is ‘conferenced out,’ especially at the national level? The MBA’s National Secondary was a few weeks ago, this week is the MBA’s Chairman’s event, next week and following weeks are more conferences at the state level. My employees want to attend, but is there really that much new? They aren’t cheap to travel to or register.” There are a lot of events, and each one has a slightly different flavor and different geographic scope. And price point. Ask the organizers and choose wisely. There are also workshops, which are more personal, and in today's episode of Advisory Angle at 11AM PT, STRATMOR Group's Garth Graham and Sue Woodard share key insights from their recent Consumer Direct Workshop in Chicago, highlighting how top lenders are responding to shifting consumer behavior and market challenges. Tune in for practical strategies and real-world examples to help optimize your direct-to-consumer approach and stay ahead of industry trends. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Hear an interview with Cotality’s Molly Boesel on what's driving the recent rise in single-family rents, why high-end rentals are outpacing lower-end growth, and how local events, new supply, and regional dynamics are shaping rent trends across U.S. cities.)

Employment

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“Unlock your potential today: Join Northpointe Bank! At Northpointe Bank, we’re built for originators who want to move fast and grow big. As a Loan Officer or Branch Manager, you can start originating loans on day one with the tools, technology, and support to hit the ground running. With over 65 loan programs, from Conventional and Jumbo to Government and Non-QM, you’ll have more ways to say "yes" to more clients. Plus, our 100 percent in-house underwriting for non-QM loans means zero outsourcing, total transparency, and full control of your files. That’s confidence you and your borrowers can count on. Bring your team. Build your business. Experience a better way to lend with Northpointe Bank. Let’s grow together: join today!”

Carrington is looking to add qualified Non-QM account executives in several markets across the country, along with other Operational roles including underwriters.

Products, software, and services for lenders

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“Simplify and streamline your loan closings with ICE Mortgage Technology’s expansive suite of settlement solutions designed to connect people, technologies, and data. Our electronic services help save time, reduce costs, and enhance efficiency from pre-closing to post-closing. With a comprehensive closing workflow, access to over 50,000 settlement organizations, eRecording coverage for more than 90% of the U.S. and a network of 80,000+ vetted and trained notaries, ICE delivers unmatched support to ensure your closing processes remain seamless and connected. Click here to learn more.”

Prudent AI launches upfront AUS (Automated Underwriting System) for the AI-era of non-QM lending! Designed to move decisioning to the front of the process, Prudent AI’s Upfront AUS uses verified income, credit, and asset data at the point of submission. Upfront AUS applies investor-specific guidelines to assess fit, instantly evaluates eligibility and conditions to clear, and delivers dual-phase review ensuring upfront accuracy and downstream consistency. This empowers lenders to reduce rework, scale underwriting capacity, and deliver faster, cleaner approvals, while equipping brokers with early clarity on qualification and documentation. “We’re excited to partner with Prudent AI to build the Upfront AUS platform non-QM lending truly needs.” - Steve Abreu, CEO of NewFi. “Our collaboration with Prudent AI, along with the utilization of Prudent AI Upfront AUS solution, will be instrumental in helping us continue to lead the non-QM market growth.”- Tom Hutchens President Angel Oak. Contact Paul Gigliotti to request more information.

It’s been called the “most powerful room in housing,” and with good reason. Housingwire: The Gathering, June 8-11 in Colorado Springs, will be the place to connect with industry movers and shakers including the folks from Down Payment Resource (DPR), the OG of DPA. With affordability challenges continuing, DPR equips lenders with tools to match borrowers to eligible assistance programs in real time. Partnering with DPR can help you close more loans, reach underserved markets, and provide true value to clients and referral partners. Discover how integrating homebuyer assistance into your lending strategy can open the door for more buyers and differentiate you in a competitive market. Whether you’re looking to drive purchase volume, improve borrower outcomes or simply want to stay ahead of the curve, conversing with DPR is the power move. Reserve your seat here.

“Ready to move your business forward? Whether you’re transitioning from broker to banker or scaling your current operations, FirstFunding is ready to support your growth. We offer warehouse funding facilities tailored to various origination types, including non-delegated, correspondent, and wholesale/TPO. Our lock strategies go beyond flow/best efforts, and we provide competitive advance rates for products like non-QM and closed-end second liens. You benefit from secure, proprietary, browser-based technology and real-time reporting, strategic partnerships to fuel expansion, and application-to-approval in just days. With FirstFunding, you get more than capital – you get a partner committed to your ongoing success. Take the next step in your lending journey with the FirstFunding advantage. Contact us.”

“It’s Non-Stop Non-QM at Carrington, so make sure to be a part of it! Double down on DSCR with Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC and its exclusive special: 25 bps price improvement for all DSCR loans locked by June 30th. Contact your Account Executive to learn more. In addition, Carrington is looking to add qualified Non-QM account executives in several markets across the country, along with other Operational roles including underwriters. Also, Carrington’s Samuel Bjelac and Amy Marsh will be at the IMN Non-QM Forum later this week to talk Non-QM. If you’re going to be there, come speak with us! Finally, congratulations to Carrington’s VP of Marketing, TPO, Steven Winokur for being named a 2025 HousingWire Marketing Leader.”

“Join Total Expert at HousingWire: The Gathering, June 8–11 in Colorado Springs! We’re serving up connection, competition, and conversation all week long. Kick things off Monday at 3:30 p.m. with our Pickleball Tournament… Whether you're ready to rally or just there for the refreshments, it’s a can't-miss mixer. Want to dive deeper? Book a one-on-one meeting with our team to explore how Total Expert helps financial institutions drive growth and maximize opportunity, even in challenging markets. Then don’t miss our spotlight session Tuesday at 1:00 p.m., where our VP of Marketing, Donnie Kenneth, joins the Marketing Leaders Forum to answer the big question: “How do you define marketing?” Get inspired by strategies to align your teams and accelerate success. Ready to connect? Let’s make this your most impactful event of the year. Book some time with us at the show.”

FREE EBOOK: Helping Borrowers Navigate Loan Products & Pricing: A Loan Officer’s Guide to Winning Trust and Closing More Loans. Today’s borrowers are overwhelmed with fluctuating rates, rising home prices, and a maze of loan options. A loan officer’s ability to simplify the process and offer clear, fast solutions is the ultimate advantage. In Maxwell’s eBook, LOs will learn how to quickly deliver personalized, easy-to-understand loan comparisons that build borrower confidence and set you apart from the competition. Discover time-saving strategies, tech tips, and proven methods to create a seamless borrower experience, and close more deals. Click here to download “Helping Borrowers Navigate Loan Products & Pricing: A Loan Officer’s Guide to Winning Trust and Closing More Loans.” 

Other nation’s mortgage products

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The 30-year fixed mortgage may be a cornerstone of U.S. housing finance, but is it limiting financial mobility in a changing world? In this Thought Leadership piece, James Hedvall explores innovative global mortgage models, from Denmark’s bond-backed loans to Israel’s inflation-indexed products, and what they can teach us about creating a more flexible, responsive mortgage system in the U.S.

Brian Vieaux on LOs helping themselves going forward

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Over the weekend I received a “MLO VieauxPoint” from Brian Vieaux, CMB, President & COO of FinLocker & Founding ‘Expert’ of MLO Live, asking, “Are LOs ‘Future-Proof?’” “Rob, I continue to see LOs who need actionable ideas to help them build a stronger, repeatable, future-proof business. Let’s start with a big question: What if the future of loan origination didn’t include you?

“Not because you're not great at what you do, but because the rules have changed. Stay with me on this.... What if the SAFE Act evolved and the regulations shifted just enough that a machine could handle ALL consumer-facing tasks that are required today to be done only by licensed Loan Officers (humans)? That includes disclosures, application intake, even loan advice (product/rates/pricing, etc.) all facilitated without a human.

“Now pause. Seriously, sit with that for a second. Ask yourself, ‘If that shift were coming, what would you begin to do differently TODAY? Invest in new tech? Would you deepen your client relationships? Teach more? Show up more? Would you make trust and connection your unfair advantage? Or exit the business altogether? This is not about fear. It’s about focus.

“The professionals who succeed in any version of the future will be the ones who invest in the things machines can’t replicate, empathy, trust, and meaningful advice.

Now allow yourself to imagine what your business would look like 3-5 years from now if you designed, developed, and implemented strategies TODAY to future-proof your business & nothing ended up changing with the regulations. I believe that a good strategy is for LOs to start future-proofing today by becoming the most human part of the mortgage experience. (Write to Brian with comments or for ideas for future content.)

What are supply managers saying?

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Everyone has a different opinion on the direction of the economy. Yesterday we learned that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in May, with the ISM Manufacturing Index falling to 48.5, its lowest reading since November 2024, as demand, output, and input measures weakened. What is the most interesting to analysts are the comments by those charged with buying items for their companies in fabricated metal, transportation equipment, paper products, chemicals, electrical equipment, etc.

“The impact of ever-changing trade policies of the current administration has wreaked havoc on suppliers’ ability to react and remain profitable. Vehicle manufacturers have already rolled price increases into their products to protect their bottom lines but have not been as cooperative with their supply bases. This has resulted in a high occurrence of suppliers falling into financial distress.” “Tariffs, avian influenza, and broader commodity markets continue to impact business conditions. The volatility of all three makes business planning and overall conditions challenging.” “Government spending cuts or delays, as well as tariffs, are raising hell with businesses. No one is willing to take on inventory risk.”

“Most suppliers are passing through tariffs at full value to us. The position being communicated is that the supplier considers it a tax, and taxes always get passed through to the customer. Very few are absorbing any portion of the tariffs.” “Tariff uncertainty is impacting new international orders. Tariffs are also the main reason our Asia customers are requesting delayed shipments.” “There is continued uncertainty regarding market reaction to the recently imposed tariffs and resulting actions by other countries. The rare earth restrictions being imposed are of high concern in the near term.” “The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19.”

Capital markets: the news continues, as does Trump’s trade war

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The recent thaw in U.S.-China trade relations has proved short-lived (or maybe not?), as Beijing over the weekend accused Washington of breaching their recent trade agreement and signaled retaliatory measures, particularly over access to critical technologies like semiconductors and rare earths. While President Trump has expressed interest in resuming talks, and despite it being reported yesterday that President Trump and President Xi are likely to speak this week, escalating tensions have clouded any near-term diplomatic breakthroughs. The uncertainty has weighed on not only equity futures and the U.S. dollar, but also investor confidence. Short-dated Treasuries have been favored over longer-term debt amid heightened interest-rate risk.

So, let’s talk about Treasuries. All of 2025, the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has been a stark underperformer. Yields on that maturity have risen, while those on 2-, 5- and 10-year notes have actually fallen. The last time this sort of divergence happened over a full year was in 2001, which should illustrate to you the rarity surrounding the pressure on the long bond as investors demand added compensation to lend to the U.S. government for such a long period. The rout has been bad enough that speculation now exists that our Treasury might scale back or halt auctions of the long bond. The Treasury market, which had found some footing in late May, weakened again as June began, with 30-year bond yields approaching the 5 percent mark and yields rising across the curve.

Fiscal policy concerns are also resurfacing. Market participants are increasingly focused on the implications of rising deficits and future Treasury issuance, especially as the administration moves to make Trump-era tax cuts permanent. These policies may provide a temporary boost but risk exacerbating inequality, as lower-income households (who often lack housing or stock market exposure) face higher costs from tariffs and limited wage gains. And inflation concerns are picking up with President Trump's announcement that the U.S. will be doubling the tariff rate for steel and aluminum imports to 50 percent, effective tomorrow.

In terms of economic data, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in May, with the ISM Manufacturing Index falling to 48.5, its lowest reading since November 2024, as demand, output, and input measures weakened. Construction spending also fell for a third consecutive month in April, driven by persistently high interest rates that are stalling both residential and nonresidential projects. While trade policy clarity may support a modest recovery in project pipelines, the improved outlook also means the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon. Elevated financing costs are likely to remain a headwind for growth, even as the threat of a sharp economic contraction appears to have diminished.

Redbook same store sales lead off today’s economic calendar today and will be followed by JOLTS job openings and factory orders (both for April), and remarks from three Fed speakers (Chicago President Goolsbee, Governor Cook, and Dallas President Logan. We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices a shade better than Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.91, and the 10-year yielding 4.41 after closing Monday at 4.46 percent.

In place of the usual humor or trivia, today we have a short entertaining video of some “hacks” that are definitely worth your time. Washing bananas preserves them? Tea leaves and salt in garlic? I also like where he uses a spoon to keep liquids from spilling.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. This month’s piece is titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)