5.30.25 No Good Data For Mortgage; Attorney Brian Levy on GSE and Federal Reserve Intersection; Trump and Powell Speak

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world. 

In today’s episode, we review the latest data and why not much of it is good for the mortgage industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with attorney Brian Levy to discuss the intersection of change chatter around the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) and the Federal Reserve. And the episode closes with a look at just what was said in a face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell yesterday.

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Transcript

“Rob, what are the odds that the MBA will set up a ‘Man Park’ at the big conference in Las Vegas in October?” Slim to none. The United States is an interesting place. We’re approaching the summer, and last week Steve Pruitt reminded me that New Jersey is pretty much the only place where land meeting water is called “the shore;” everywhere else it’s called “the beach.” (Yes, people in New Jersey can go to the beach, and there are shores even outside the Garden State… "Shore" is a generic term for the place where land meets water. Don’t argue.) As we approach summer, those of us in the United States find that we no longer have an AAA-rated government. (The rating agencies have pegged countries like Canada, Denmark, and Australia higher.) Affordability continues to be troubling, but the data seems clear that removing parking requirements and other zoning changes can make a big difference in urban affordability and it doesn’t even take that long… What worked in Minneapolis may work in Chicago and other cities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. And it costs less than other buy before you sell solutions. Hear an interview with attorney Brian Levy on the intersection of change chatter around the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) and the Federal Reserve.)

Employment & transitions

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Your Career Deserves More Than Empty Promises! At Evergreen Home Loans®, actions speak louder than words. We’re a company that follows through, on our commitments to borrowers and to the incredible Loan Officers and Branch Managers who make it all happen. Our “On Time and As Promised®” culture drives everything we do, and our operational support, marketing programs, and leadership coaching are built to help you win in today’s market. If you’re tired of hearing empty promises from your current company, and seeing little action, it’s time to see the Evergreen difference. Here, you’ll find a team that values your work, supports your vision, and backs it all up with real results. Your career deserves a home that delivers. Join us at DiscoverEHL.com. For more information, contact: Todd Miles, EVP of Production Growth, 360.606.2232.

Sagent, a leading provider of mortgage servicing technology solutions, appointed Kyle Draisey as Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) and Head of Cybersecurity where she will lead cybersecurity strategy, governance, and operations as Sagent firm deploys its Dara platform to U.S. mortgage servicers.

ServiceLink has named Liz Green to its valuations’ executive team as senior vice president of valuation solutions where she will help drive the organization’s valuations-related strategy and continue pioneering the digitization and modernization of valuation solutions through the evolution of products and services. “As the valuation industry goes through a major shift with the new Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR) and Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) 3.6 transition – the first overhaul of output reporting in 20 years – Green will also tap into her industry insights and unmatched expertise to guide ServiceLink and its clients through the change.”

We’re proud to launch the Chrisman Job Board, the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. Whether you're building your team or advancing your career, this is the place to connect. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team at info@chrismancommentary.com and we’ll take care of it for you. Your roles will reach a highly engaged and growing audience of mortgage professionals. Employers can also unlock talent profiles from our growing resume database by purchasing credits, giving direct access to qualified candidates actively seeking new opportunities. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live. Explore open roles or add your listing today at Chrisman Job Board.

Software, products, and services for lenders & brokers

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Do you have borrowers who are stuck because their equity is tied up in their current property? With Flyhomes Instant Equity, a home equity loan on the departing residence, your borrowers can unlock their equity early to secure their next home, without the hassle of selling first. It also helps your borrowers reduce DTI by excluding the departing residence’s debt - without monthly payments during the transition. As the simplest process in the industry, it requires no income docs, no asset docs, and no mortgage statements for loan approval. For the past 10 years, Flyhomes has been a pioneer and leader in innovative financial products, helping 5,000+ buyers purchase their next home and enabling LOs to close 1.2 more loans per month on average. Now through Q2, get 25 bps off origination fees on any Flyhomes Bridge Loan! (Terms apply) Sign up for Flyhomes’ June 5 webinar to learn more about the product and its use scenarios, or book a call now to get started today.

Aven Broker Program: Earn 3% for brokering customers to Aven! Aven provides access to the lowest HELOC monthly payments, guaranteed. Plus, customers can get 2% unlimited cash back with the Aven Home Equity Visa® Credit Card giving them easy access to their funds. Aven is seeking licensed MLOs to join the Aven Broker Program. Aven's dedicated portal streamlines application and management, with approvals and closings handled entirely online in as little as 15 within minutes. Brokers earn a 3% fee on the loan value. If you’re interested in partnering with Aven to offer an accessible HELOC solution to your clients, please contact us. For more information on Aven, visit here.

“Struggling to bridge the affordability gap for your buyers? Click n’ Close has the solution! Click n’ Close’s nationwide suite of Down Payment Assistance (DPA) programs makes homeownership accessible to more borrowers, with no income or first-time homebuyer restrictions. Featuring an innovative shared appreciation option, buyers can secure below-market FHA financing while building wealth from day one. Don’t let buyers miss out on these opportunities—connect with the Correspondent Account Executive in your region today: DJ Ziggas, East Coast Regional Sales Director, Susan Malpocker, Midwest Regional Sales Director, Jeff Raich, Texas and SW Regional Sales Director, Julas Hollie, National Accounts Manager, Felicia Wells, Texas and Rocky Mountain Regional Sales Director. Empower your borrowers and grow your business with Click n’ Close’s DPA solutions!”

We’re excited to announce the official launch of the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry. This initial rollout features a curated selection of companies from our Founding Cohort, offering a first look at the powerful partnerships and solutions driving innovation in the space. We’ll be adding new vendors daily, so check back often to see what’s new. Today is the final day to lock in early access pricing before rates increase. Don’t miss your chance to secure a prime spot on the Marketplace at the best possible value. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR on navigating Washington DC

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STRATMOR’s latest Insights Report helps lenders respond to rate volatility and policy changes! In today’s rapidly changing market, staying ahead means understanding not just where the winds are blowing, but who’s steering the ship. STRATMOR’s latest article follows Senior Partner Garth Graham to Washington, D.C., where industry leaders, regulators, and policymakers are shaping the future of mortgage lending. From GSE reform to LO comp and rising compliance concerns, “Mr. Graham Goes to Washington: Navigating Policy Shifts and Profit Pressures” breaks down the key issues affecting your margins, operations, and strategic decisions.

Training, events, and webinars to kick off the first half of June

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Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

On today's episode of Last Word at 10am PT, hosts Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, and Kevin Peranio explore recent shifts in the mortgage market, focusing on the PCE report's implications for inflation and rising mortgage rates. They'll also examine Bill Pulte’s viral tweets about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Jerome Powell, discussing how social media and policy debates are shaping market sentiment and GSE reform.  

Technology and innovation in residential lending are the focus of Now Next Later Monday at 1pm ET. Hear from Jeremy Potter and Mike Yu, CEO and co-Founder of Vesta about the cost of origination.

The 41st Annual Regional Conference of MBAs is your prime opportunity to showcase your brand, connect with top decision-makers, and generate valuable leads in the mortgage and banking industry. Join MBAs from June 2-5, at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City, NJ, and position your business for success at the premier event of the year.

Federal Housing Administration's (FHA) Office of Lender Activities and Program Compliance will conduct a free webinar on the FHA Lender Approval Application Process as outlined in the Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1., June 05, 2:00 PM to 3:30 PM.

Tuesday’s episode of MortgagePros411, at 2PM ET, Audrey and Kevin speak originator’s language, this time with attorney Brian Levy.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 14th at 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One.

Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show. Watch for Rob Chrane CEO of DownPaymentResource.com.

On June 3, 11AM PT, is “What’s Next in Lending? Trends Shaping the Second Half of 2025.” Join industry experts Josh Friend, CEO of Insellerate, and Rob Chrisman for a high-impact webinar exploring the key trends redefining mortgage lending in the back half of 2025. From rate expectations and regulatory updates to real-time advances in AI and borrower behavior, this session delivers actionable insights for lenders looking to stay competitive, compliant, and customer-focused in a fast-changing market.

There’s the National MI, ARCH MI, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and Enact training calendars.

The 2025 MISMO Spring Summit just around the corner, happening June 9 -12 in Boston, MA. This premier event is your opportunity to engage with industry leaders and explore how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is shaping the future of mortgage standards and data exchange.

From June 10-12, in St. Petersburg, Florida, join MBAF’s 21st Annual Eastern Secondary Conference and 71st Annual Convention! Always well attended and informative!

Register for USDA’s free, live, virtual training, "Boost Loan Accuracy and Speed", Thursday, June 12, 2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. ET

The Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), regulation and compliance (Regulation Central third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital markets: hard to trade bonds off of judicial rulings

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We have a lot of news to make it through, and I’m not sure how much of it is good. Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose for a third straight week, according to data from Freddie Mac that was released yesterday. The average for 30-year, fixed loans was 6.89 percent, the highest since early February and up from 6.86 percent last week. Those high costs, as well as concerns about the economy, held back purchases of existing homes in April, a month when transactions typically pick up. A measure of contract signings plunged 6.3 percent from March, the biggest decline since September 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Separately, continuing claims for jobless benefits jumped to their highest level since November 2021. The high claims numbers suggest the combined impact of the Trump administration’s trade policy and government spending initiatives are starting to take a larger toll on the labor market as those out of work increasingly struggle to find new positions.

President Trump has argued that his trade policies will stoke economic growth in the future, though many economists predict the opposite. And on Thursday, more data appeared to affirm those negative suspicions. The U.S. economy shrank at the start of the year, decreasing at a 0.2 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, restrained by weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade. The second estimate GDP report for Q1 featured a downward revision to personal spending to 1.2 percent from 1.8 percent in the advance estimate, underscoring how the tariff uncertainty and inflation angst tempered consumer spending activity.

And speaking of our President, after the close, a federal appeals court granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily pause the U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling late yesterday on his reciprocal tariffs.

President Trump certainly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates during a face-to-face meeting yesterday, as the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy. Despite mounting political pressure and a temporary lull in tariff tensions, Fed officials have emphasized their commitment to avoiding any perception of enabling fiscal irresponsibility or reacting prematurely to economic noise. While holding rates steady may reflect a desire to preserve stability amid global uncertainty, critics argue the Fed’s reluctance to ease could tip the economy toward recession. This standoff places increasing urgency on President Trump to resolve trade disputes swiftly, as prolonged monetary tightening could deepen economic pain. If the Fed waits too long to pivot, any future rate cuts may need to be aggressive to counteract the damage.

Bond yields faded initially yesterday on some technical buying interest and buying activity gathered steam following the conclusion of a $44 billion 7-year note auction that was met with strong demand. The auction was a blowout, stopping 2-basis points through the screens to well above average end user demand (dealers got less than 5 percent). The recent global risk-on trade is good overall for bonds. If we are witnessing the end of mass tariffs, the Fed is out of excuses to keep rate cuts on hold, and we should see rates work their way lower over the summer.

The April PCE report is today’s (and the week’s) economic highlight: +.1 percent, +2.1 percent year-over-year, core +.1 percent; core PCE was +2.5 year-over-year. Income and spending were +.8 and +.2 percent, respectively, and the income number was a bit of a pop. We’ve also received advanced indicators for April, with the goods trade deficit improving to $() billion from $163.2 billion after "Liberation Day," and wholesale and retail inventories () month-over-month. Despite the pullback, the deficit was still larger than any month before 2025 as importers’ stockpiling of imports slowed.

Later today brings final May Michigan sentiment, where inflation expectations will be closely watched following the prior eye-opening 7.3 percent and 4.6 percent for 1- and 5-year horizons. Three Fed presidents are currently scheduled to speak: Atlanta’s Bostic, San Francisco’s Daly, and Chicago’s Goolsbee. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.94, and the 10-year yielding 4.44 after closing yesterday at 4.43 percent.

I’m getting old. When I say, "The other day," I could be referring to any time between yesterday and 15 years ago.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. This month’s piece is titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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