3.12.25 Lending and Politics; TransUnion's Satyan Merchant on Data and Analytics; CPI Inflation

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at how mortgage lending and politics are intertwined. Plus, Robbie sits down with TransUnion’s Satyan Merchant to talk about how data and analytics are transforming the mortgage industry, from leveraging credit and alternative data to improving targeting, personalization, and marketing innovation. And he closes by going through the latest CPI inflation figures.

This week’s podcast is sponsored by TransUnion. TransUnion offers thousands of B2B solutions designed to address the unique needs of mortgage lenders, especially for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions. 

Transcript

“Half the people you know are below average.” There are clever people out there. If you’re a Tesla owner, and don’t want to deal with the negativity, there’s “Steal My Tesla.” Fortunately the demand for our MBS is strong, in good part because of the government. If it weren’t for Freddie and Fannie, FHA, VA, HECMs, bond programs, and interest rates, we could pretend that the government and residential lending weren’t intertwined. But it all is, for better or worse. No one can deny that tariff uncertainties and mixed economic data slammed consumer, and trader, sentiment last week. U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth over tariffs against Canada and Mexico has stoked confusion in traders and certainly moved interest rates down. Meanwhile, “in the trenches,” abusive trigger leads are still an issue that we hear about on our travels, and, like the scaling back of the CFPB, if Congress won’t do anything, states like Georgia are certainly willing to step in. Our MBA is on it! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. TransUnion offers thousands of B2B solutions designed to address the unique needs of mortgage lenders, especially for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions. Hear an interview with TransUnion’s Satyan Merchant on how data and analytics are transforming the mortgage industry, from leveraging credit and alternative data to improving targeting, personalization, and marketing innovation.)

Employment

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Want to join an exciting company focused on growth? JMAC is adding AEs in various open markets. Please contact sales@jmaclending.com to learn more about opportunities in your area. JMAC Lending is your one-stop-shop for #EverythingFHA. FHA FICOs from 500, Cash-out FICOs from 540 and No FICO FHA, Expert manual underwriting. Manufactured Homes, Full list of Buydowns, and coming soon – Single-unit FHA Spot Approvals for condos. JMAC’s FHA loans are closing as fast as 4 days for brokers! Popular Choice: JMAC Lending’s FHA Down Payment Assistance program provides an FHA first with a 3.5% or 5.0% DPA that can go toward the down payment and/or closing costs. Visit www.jmaclending.com.

“Are you ready to start investing in yourself and stop hustling to grow someone else’s dream? If you want to benefit from your own hard work, then we would love to talk to you about Motto Mortgage. We’re a mortgage brokerage franchisor, which means we provide you with the pieces you need to build your own mortgage brokerage business. We provide professional marketing content, product mix, wholesale lender relationships, compliance support, and more. From. Day. One. Find out how owning a Motto Mortgage franchise can help you expand your revenue opportunities and let you focus on growing your own dreams. Email franchise@mottomortgage.com for all the details.”

Supreme Lending announced the addition of mortgage industry veterans Eli Fairfield and Brian Keranen as Regional Managers of the Pacific Southwest Region. “With decades of experience and a track record of excellence, Eli and Brian bring a wealth of knowledge and leadership to the Supreme Lending team.”

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker products, software, & services

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What If Every Purchase Contract Had Hidden Gold? Join American Heritage Lending’s live webinar and dive into game-changing strategies for loan originators, brokers, and real estate professionals! Did you know that every purchase contract holds untapped leads and business opportunities? Learn how to maximize every deal, Originate MORE! And grow your pipeline! Register here. Learn the hidden gold in every contract, lead identification and perfecting your pitch. Discover how every contract is a goldmine of potential clients and learn strategies to position yourself as the go-to expert, converting leads into long-term clients. Who Should Attend? Mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and lending professionals looking to expand their client base and close more loans. Register now and take your business to the next level! Contact James Gueltzow for more information or click here Originate More - ahlendtpo.com to view previous webinars and other resources.

“JMAC Lending is your one-stop-shop for #EverythingFHA. FHA FICOs from 500, Cash-out FICOs from 540 and No FICO FHA, Expert manual underwriting. Manufactured Homes, Full list of Buydowns, and coming soon – Single-unit FHA Spot Approvals for condos. Need to close fast? JMAC’s FHA loans are closing as fast as 4 days! Popular Choice: JMAC Lending’s FHA Down Payment Assistance program provides an FHA first with a 3.5% or 5.0% DPA that can go toward the down payment and/or closing costs. No income limits, low credit scores and no Max DTI with AUS approval, manual underwriting available, and no need to be a first-time home buyer. Watch our DPA Video to learn about this easy-to-use program available in every state JMAC is licensed. Your complete lender in business since 1997. Contact sales@jmaclending.com and visit www.jmaclending.com.”

The Down Payment Resource team is winding down from ICE Experience, where its kiosk was swamped with lenders eyeing its award-winning Encompass® LOS platform integration. Next the team heads to Dallas for The Mortgage Collaborative's Live Large Think Big Conference. If you’ll be at TMC, DPR invites you to check out two events on Monday, March 17. At 10:45 (CT) VP of Sales and Business Development Brad Cardwell will be part of the “Leveraging DPAs for Business Growth” panel. Then the team moves to the Preferred Partner Solutions Showcase Room 2 at 1 pm (CT) where they’ll demonstrate how the DPR toolset connects lenders to 2,400+ DPA programs they can operationalize as part of their purchase business strategy. If you’re not heading to Dallas, no worries. You can reserve a spot on Brad’s calendar right here.

New Maxwell Report: Is the American Dream at Risk? Rising taxes and skyrocketing insurance premiums are pushing nearly half of U.S. homeowners to the brink. According to Maxwell's latest report, climate disasters and soaring insurance rates are becoming a financial burden that could leave many questioning their ability to keep their homes. Key findings show that 50% of homeowners fear they won’t be able to afford their homes much longer, and nearly 60% are considering selling within the next 5 years if rates keep climbing. Want to know how these rising costs are shaping homeowner decisions—and what’s ahead for the housing market? Don’t miss out! Click here to get your copy of Maxwell’s Homeowners Insurance Data Report and uncover the truth behind the numbers.

“Sagent Customer Conference preview! The energy of crowds, the reunion of long-time colleagues, seeing celebrities on stage… industry conferences offer fun and value, but customer summits should be different and Sagent gets that. At our annual user conference Ignite, our customers are the celebs, and attendees are a tight-knit, highly engaged bunch: 100 percent of last year’s attendees said they intend to return. This year, our agenda (based on customer input, as always) includes featured speakers, unforgettable networking events, and tailored training. Attendees will also see Dara’s end-to-end capabilities up close, including Dara Core, which offers all the essential tools for daily servicing operations. Demonstrations of the platform continue to be exclusive, so if you’re a Sagent customer who’s eager to see Dara for yourself, register here for Ignite (May 5-7, Dallas, TX) today. Until then, check out this recent episode of Chrisman Commentary for the latest updates on Dara Core.”

STRATMOR Consumer Direct workshop is open

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STRAMOR Consumer Direct Workshop Coming to Chicago! STRATMOR Group is once again hosting its popular Consumer Direct Workshop in-person this May. Join peer lenders and STRATMOR experts Garth Graham, Brett McCracken, and Sue Woodard in Chicago, on May 21 and 22, 2025, to explore key strategies that will set you apart in a competitive market, from personalizing the customer experience to leveraging cutting-edge technology for increased efficiency. CD lenders that can differentiate themselves through superior service, innovative technology, and seamless digital experiences will be in a stronger position to survive and thrive. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to gain actionable insights that will help you succeed in the rapidly changing mortgage landscape. Space is limited! Learn more and reserve your seat today.

Conventional conforming program changes don’t stop

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“Effective June 1, FHLMC will require all mortgage services to submit evidence of loan level attribute data reconciliations (Form 75). Non-compliance and data errors associated with this request could result in compensatory fees to the servicer starting as early as July 1, 2026. Effectively reconciling data discrepancies at the attribute level is challenging for any servicer who is not well down the path in establishing robust data quality routines. At PMSI, we have performed this level of analysis as a baseline standard since 2019 and are well prepared to respond to this change with confidence. With less than 90 days remaining, will you be ready to achieve compliance? Will you also be confident in the accuracy of the data you provide? Contact PMSI today to explore how we can help you succeed!”

Freddie Mac previously updated Loan Product Advisor (LPA) to assess rent payment history in the credit assessment (an asset report identifying rent payments is required). Pennymac will begin accepting loans with the above enhancement effective with new loan deliveries on and after 03/07/2025. Note: Pennymac will be conducting pre-purchase reviews on all files delivered with this enhancement. Additional information is available in Pennymac Announcement 25-24.

Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey® found that almost half of consumers say their home has become more important to them over the past few years. Our economists explore how their needs and uses have changed, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, and how this might impact homebuying decisions in the future.

The economy entered 2025 on strong footing, but Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research groups explain why current risks to the outlook are higher than normal.

Fannie Mae Servicers: check out this eLearning module that will walk you through the process of how to submit or edit existing servicing transfer requests.  

Get familiar with the tools and information you need to provide effective assistance for homeowners when disaster strikes, including payment relief, loan modifications, and additional recovery support services. Visit the Fannie Mae Disaster Response page.

Previous communications announced Freddie Mac changes to flood insurance premium calculations. Freddie Mac extended the implementation date for this new requirement, and it is now effective with note dates on and after April 1, 2025. View Pennymac Announcement 25-23 for details.

Edition 2025-1-3.7.25 of Fifth Third Correspondent Lending Communiqué includes the following topics: All Agency Products: ACE+ PDR and Value Acceptance + Property Data Expansion, All Agency Products: Hybrid Appraisals, Fifth Third Correspondent Lending Portal Transition.

Capital markets: applications continue their rise

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Though investors continue to flee equities amid growing uncertainty, we had a selloff in the bond markets yesterday as investors hope President Trump will soften tariff policy moving forward. Yesterday was a lighter day for the economic calendar, with the JOLTS Job Openings report and some supply hitting the market. Job openings increased to 7.740 million from a revised 7.508 million in December. Job openings remain above pre-pandemic averages despite a downward trend over the last three years, suggesting employers are still looking to hire. The U.S. Treasury started this week's note and bond offering slate with an underwhelming $58 billion 3-year note sale ahead of today's $39 billion 10-year note reopening. Small Business Optimism declined again in February, according to the NFIB, though it remains above the 51-year historical average. Confidence is slipping as labor quality and inflation remain key concerns, with price hikes at their highest since April 2021, partly due to annual adjustments and anticipated tariffs.

Mortgage rates are a matter of supply and demand, and February's prepayment speed report showed a slight slowdown with aggregate Fannie Mae 30-year speeds dropping 1 percent month-over-month to a 5.0 percent CPR, the slowest pace since March 2024. This decline occurred despite a 24-basis-point drop in mortgage rates, which ended February at 6.60 percent, the lowest since September. The prepayment landscape remains sluggish, emphasizing the importance of monitoring servicer performance. Within the UMBS 30-year universe, the gap between the fastest and slowest servicers has narrowed, suggesting a continued focus on in-the-money borrowers. Rocket/Quicken maintained its top position for the sixth consecutive month, ranking among the top five fastest servicers in nine of twelve coupons, followed by loanDepot, AmeriHome, and Pingora. On the slower end, Bank of America and United Shore ranked among the bottom five servicers in five of twelve coupons, reinforcing the ongoing divergence in servicing strategies.

After increasing more than 20 percent last week, mortgage applications increased another 11.2 percent this week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. That kicked off today’s economic calendar, but (more importantly) we’ve also received the all-important CPI report for February (+.2 percent for the month, +2.8 percent y-o-y). Expectations were for an increase of 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.9 percent year-over-year in the headline, versus 0.5 percent and 3.0 percent previously. Core CPI was up 3.1 percent y-o-y. Real weekly earnings were +1.2 percent. Later today, the Treasury will be active again, this time auctioning $39 billion reopened 10-year notes. Keep in mind that there are no Federal Reserve speakers on the docket as Fed officials are in the blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. After the CPI data we begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly better than Tuesday’s close, the 2-year at 3.95, and the 10-year yielding 4.26 after closing yesterday at 4.29 percent.

A man stumbles up to the only other patron in a bar and asks if he could buy him a drink. “Why of course,” comes the reply.

The first man then asks: “Where are you from?”

“I’m from Ireland,” replies the second man.

The first man responds: “You don’t say, I’m from Ireland too! Let’s have another round to Ireland.”

“Of course,” replies the second man.

Curious, the first man then asks: “Where in Ireland are you from?”

“Dublin,” comes the reply.

“I can’t believe it,” says the first man.

“I’m from Dublin too! Let’s have another drink to Dublin.”

“Of course,” replies the second man.

Curiosity again strikes, and the first man asks: “What school did you go to?”

“Saint Mary’s,” replies the second man.

“I graduated in ’72.”

“This is unbelievable!” the first man says.

“I went to Saint Mary’s, and I graduated in ’72, too!”

About that time, in comes one of the regulars and sits down at the bar. “What’s been going on?” he asks the bartender.

“Nothing much,” replies the bartender. “The O’Malley twins are drunk again…”

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. This month’s piece is titled, “Natural Disasters and Economic Resilience.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).