3.7.25 Stagflation Concerns; LoneStar Signing's Jackie Spillman on Mentorship; Payrolls Don't Disappoint

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the latest origination data for the mortgage industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with Marr Labs Dave Grannan to talk about how AI is being
used to enhance customer interactions in mortgage lending. And he closes by examining some labor market indicators ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report.

Today’s podcast is brought to you by Floify, a leading point-of-sale platform for mortgage professionals. Known for its user-friendly interface and no-code configurability, Floify empowers small and midsize lenders and mortgage brokers with efficiency gains and cost savings. Features like native eSigning, electronic verification, and configurable loan applications reduce turn times and put money back in lenders’ pockets. See the beauty of its simplicity at www.floify.com.

Transcript

“If you boil a funny bone, it becomes a laughingstock. Now that's humerus.” What isn’t humer…, uh humorous, is a) most states losing an hour Sunday morning, and b) why rates are going down. The word “stagflation” is creeping into analyst’s missives. Mortgage rates and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen amid expectations of a trade-induced economic slowdown that could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year. Financial markets are pricing in the risk of recession, with various models like JPMorgan Chase's or Goldman Sachs’ showing a rise in the market-implied probability of an economic downturn doubling from earlier levels given tariff-related uncertainty and weaker economic indicators. Lower rates are nice, but the reasons aren’t. (Today’s podcast can be found here and sponsored by Floify. Floify is an easy-to-configure point-of-sale platform that allows each branch or loan officer to customize its look and feel to meet the needs of their lending team, homebuyers, and market. Hear an interview with LoneStar Signing's Jackie Spillman on breaking barriers for Women’s History Month.)

Employment, the return of a mortgage celebrity

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A growing national non-QM investor is seeking a Secondary Marketing Manager to manage trading activities, including pricing, hedging, and daily reporting. The ideal candidate will leverage their analytical skills to enhance processes and pricing, manage pipeline risk, execute daily lock desk tasks, and develop data-driven insights that support strategic decision-making in a fast-paced, collaborative environment. If interested, please email your confidential resume to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt and specify this opportunity.

“Evergreen Home Loans® is growing! As we expand our footprint into new markets, we’re actively seeking experienced Loan Officers and Branch Managers to join our team. Our focus on acquisitions provides a unique opportunity for mortgage professionals looking to scale their business while maintaining a culture of integrity and excellence. With best-in-class technology, competitive loan programs, and a leadership team that supports your success, there’s never been a better time to grow with us. Ready to explore new opportunities? Visit DiscoverEHL.com.”

Anthony Hsieh is returning to loanDepot, the company that he founded, as “Executive Chairman of Mortgage Originations.” CEO Frank Martell is departing this role on June 4. Recall that recently has appointed industry veteran Alec Hanson to a newly created role leading revenue development and growth initiatives, effective immediately. Let me know, confidentially, if you’re interested in interviewing for the CEO position.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker products, software, & services

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Aven Broker Program: Earn 3% for brokering customers to Aven! Aven provides access to the lowest HELOC monthly payments, guaranteed. Plus, customers can get 2% unlimited cash back with the Aven Home Equity Visa® Credit Card giving them easy access to their funds. Aven is seeking licensed MLOs to join the Aven Broker Program. Aven's dedicated portal streamlines application and management, with approvals and closings handled entirely online in as little as 15 within minutes. Brokers earn a 3% fee on the loan value. If you’re interested in partnering with Aven to offer an accessible HELOC solution to your clients, please contact ABP@aven.com. For more information on Aven, visit https://www.aven.com.

“Ready to transform your marketing department from a cost center into a revenue engine? Your marketing campaigns are either making you money or wasting your time. But how do you identify which ones are which? Aidium turns mortgage marketers into revenue drivers with 80+ proven automation playbooks, enterprise-wide campaign management, and AI-driven insights that spot opportunities months before your competition. Great marketing should do more than create pretty flyers… It should drive measurable growth for your business. Visit us at Ice Experience booth 327 or at thinkaidium.com to learn more.”

Poised for innovation, the mortgage industry is steadily advancing thanks to cutting edge yet practical solutions that meet lenders’ changing needs in a dynamic market. Xactus, a fintech and leading mortgage verifications provider, is rising to the occasion by redefining verifications with solutions that are grounded in valuable insights derived from verification data. It is a new class of new technology called Intelligent Verification. Case in point: Xactus is the first technology partner to bring the FICO® Score Mortgage Simulator onto the market. It is the only score simulator for mortgage professionals that uses FICO® Scores and FICO Score algorithms. The FICO® Score Mortgage Simulator can be accessed via Xactus360, the industry’s first Intelligent Verification PlatformSM, a data-driven, scalable system that delivers the data you need, when you need it. With Xactus360, you can transform your workflows, eliminate inefficiencies, and reduce data waste. To learn more, schedule time to meet with Xactus at  ICE Experience 2025 or email here.

Class Valuation has released a comprehensive eBook addressing the critical role of appraisals in the new construction lending market. With MBA forecasts projecting 776,000 new home sales in 2025 (representing 18% of all home sales) lenders face unique valuation challenges that impact portfolio stability. The eBook details essential strategies for mortgage lenders, home builders with lending divisions, and brokers who handle new construction loans. Readers will learn regulatory compliance requirements, methods for selecting qualified appraisers, and effective risk mitigation techniques specific to properties in various construction phases. Class Valuation provides a detailed roadmap for developing reliable programs that avoid common pitfalls while managing credit risk associated with these specialized loans. Thousands of successful lenders nationwide trust Class Valuation’s proven methodology to secure their new construction lending future. Mortgage professionals interested in strengthening their new construction lending practices can download the free eBook here.

Webinars, training, and in-person events today & next week

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A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

Today on the Last Word (all Fridays at 1pm ET) hear from Kevin Peranio, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Brian Vieaux! On today’s The Last Word, KP, Brian, Christy, and Courtney will discuss This week on The Last Word, our panelists share their insights and opinions on the latest trends in the housing market, including rising inventory, longer days on market, and increasing contract cancellations. They also explore the ongoing insurance crisis, focusing on rising premiums, policy cancellations, and the challenges posed by flood zone inaccuracies. (Learn more here.)

Technology and innovation in residential lending are the focus of Now Next Later next Monday at 1pm ET.

Join K&L Gates for a virtual discussion, Monday, March 10, 12:00 - 1:00 PM ET. as a cross-disciplinary group of K&L Gates lawyers discuss DEI Enforcement: False Claims Act and Other Risks on the horizon, their implications for government contractors, federal award recipients and various other types of public and private companies.

There’s ICE Experience 2025, March 10–12 at Wynn Las Vegas. Have 50+ expert-led sessions, hear from inspiring keynote speakers, and network with the movers and shakers of the mortgage industry, all centered on helping more people realize their dream of homeownership.

Tuesday the 11th at 11AM PT, origination takes the focus with Mortgage Pros as Audrey B. and Kevin C. address issues facing residential originators.

Don’t miss the joint CRMLA/Canopy Breakfast Event: Lender Panel “Impacts of the NAR Settlement, Tuesday, March 11, 9:30-11:00 at Canopy Realtor® Association. Join highly respected mortgage experts as they discuss the NAR settlement impact on Homebuyers, Lenders, and Realtors.

Join Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) for one of four joint webinars to help lenders prepare for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign. These sessions are intended for lenders preparing for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign but are open to other impacted parties (Appraisal Software Vendors, UCDP Direct Integrators, Appraisal Management Companies, etc.). Webinar date: Thursday, Mar. 13 – 3 p.m. ET. Registration is on a first come, first served basis. If a session is filled, a waitlist will be enabled and waitlisted registrants will be notified if a slot becomes available.

National MI’s upcoming March 2025 webinar sessions include Mastering LinkedIn for Mortgage Professionals, Session 3 - Brynne Tillman, March 11th at 3 pm ET. Turn Your Pitch into a Success Story - Dr. Bruce Lund, March 13th at 1 pm ET. The 2025 NextGen Homebuyer Report: Key Insights for Winning More Business, Kristin Messerli, March 20th at 1 pm ET.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 12ths 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One!

Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show.

Friday the 14th Courtney Thompson, and Brian Vieaux! On the The Last Word, KP, Brian, Christy, and Courtney will discuss This week on The Last Word, our panelists share their insights and opinions on the latest trends in the housing market, including rising inventory, longer days on market, and increasing contract cancellations. They also explore the ongoing insurance crisis, focusing on rising premiums, policy cancellations, and the challenges posed by flood zone inaccuracies. (Learn more here.)

The Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), regulation and compliance (Regulation Central third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital markets: employment figures about as expected

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Concerns about a potential recession (or even stagflation) have traders focused more on what to sell than what to buy, as fears surrounding Trump's trade policies, persistent inflation, and widespread layoffs dominate sentiment. The Challenger Job Cuts report revealed a staggering 172k job losses in February, the highest monthly total since mid-2020, with nearly half stemming from the public sector. Meanwhile, the January Trade Balance showed a dramatic widening of the trade deficit to $131.4 billion, driven by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to get ahead of expected tariff actions. This spike in imports is expected to weigh on first-quarter GDP forecasts, adding to economic uncertainty.

Despite growth concerns, some economic data offered a silver lining. Fourth-quarter productivity was revised upward to 1.5 percent, while unit labor costs (a key inflation indicator) were revised down to 2.2 percent, suggesting that improved efficiency is helping to temper wage-driven inflation. Wholesale inventories also rose by 0.8 percent in January, rebounding from a decline in December. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 GDP improved slightly, revising its estimate from -2.8 percent to -2.4 percent. While risks remain, these figures indicate some resilience in the economy, though investors remain wary of ongoing trade and inflation challenges.

On the central bank front, the European Central Bank reduced the deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.5 percent (as predicted), lowering interest rates for the sixth time since June and indicated that its cutting phase may be nearing its close as inflation cools and the economy digests seismic shifts in geopolitics. Domestically, mortgage rates tumbled in the latest week as markets adjusted to slower growth, while inflation remains sticky. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending March 6 showed the 30-year and 15-year rates falling 13-basis points and 15-basis points to 6.63 percent and 5.79 percent, respectively. Versus a year ago, the respective rates were 25-basis points and 43-basis points lower. The 30-year rate has declined seven straight weeks, while the 15-year rate has declined in six of seven weeks.

Today contains some market moving events, including the February payrolls report and remarks from Fed Chair Powell. The February jobs report headline figure registered +151k versus expectations of a 130k increase and 143k previously. The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent when it was seen holding steady at 4.0 percent. Average hourly earnings were +.3 percent when the figure was seen increasing 0.3 percent month-over-month and 4.2 percent year-over-year. The only other data point today is consumer credit for January, due out this afternoon. As indicated, Fed Chair Powell will deliver remarks. He will be preceded by Governors Bowman and Kugler, and New York President Williams. After the jobs data Agency MBS prices are slightly better than Thursday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.97, and the 10-year is yielding 4.27 after closing yesterday at 4.29 percent.

An hour outside of Dublin an Irish farmer named Seamus had a car accident. In court, the lorry company’s hot-shot solicitor was questioning Seamus.

“Didn’t you say to the police at the scene of the accident, ‘I’m fine?’” asked the solicitor.
Seamus responded, “Well, I’ll tell you what happened. I had just loaded my favorite cow, Bessie, into the…”

“I didn’t ask for any details,” the solicitor interrupted. “Just answer the question. Did you not say, at the scene of the accident, ‘I’m fine!’?”
Seamus said, “Well, I had just got Bessie into the trailer, and I was driving down the road…”

The solicitor interrupted again and said, “Your Honor, I am trying to establish the fact that, at the scene of the accident, this man told the police on the scene that he was fine. Now, several weeks after the accident, he is trying to sue my client. I believe he is a fraud. Please tell him to simply answer the question.”
By this time, the judge was fairly interested in Seamus’s answer and said to the solicitor, “I’d like to hear what he has to say about his cow Bessie.”
Seamus thanked the judge and proceeded. “Well as I was saying, I had just loaded Bessie, my favorite cow, into the trailer and was driving her down the road when this huge lorry and trailer came through a stop sign and hit my trailer right in the side. I was thrown into one ditch, and Bessie was thrown into the other. I was hurt, very bad like, and didn’t want to move. But I could hear old Bessie moaning and groaning. I knew she was in terrible pain just by her groans.

“Shortly after the accident, a policeman on a motorbike turned up. He could hear Bessie moaning and groaning so he went over to her. After he looked at her, and saw her condition, he took out his gun and shot her between the eyes.

“Then the policeman came across the road, gun still in hand, looked at me, and said, ‘How are you feeling?’
“Now judge, faith and begorrah, what would you have said?”

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. This month’s piece is titled, “Natural Disasters and Economic Resilience.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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