2.18.25 Rate Direction; Rocket's Bill Emerson on Leadership; Post-Inflation Sentiment

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we explore the direction of interest rates and what it means for lenders and borrowers alike. Plus, Robbie sits down with Rocket’s Bill Emerson to discuss the evolving digital landscape and the challenges of leading both individuals and organizations through technological transformation. Tune in for a thought-provoking conversation on innovation, leadership, and the future of mortgage and capital markets.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

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This weekend I spent a little time in the Miami Airport and overheard two people discussing how they were waiting for a builder in Tennessee to finish their home… And hoping rates didn’t go higher. I remained mum. No one knows exactly where rates will go, but I can guarantee you that initial jobless claims for several Thursdays to come will be wonky given government firings. (Lenders are also concerned about the regulatory landscape, and Regulation Central, today at 3PM ET, will explore the whirlwind of leadership turnover at the CFPB, with four directors in just 30 days. As Jonathan McKernan steps in, what direction will the agency take?) In a holiday- and data-light week, investors will be focusing on the January housing data for the U.S., including housing starts on Wednesday and existing home sales on Friday. Zelman reports that, “Unlike 2024, this year’s spring selling season is not off to an early start. While both homebuilder sentiment and orders demonstrated a modest seasonal uplift in January, the magnitude of this increase was underwhelming, representing the smallest January increase recorded in our survey history across both metrics.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by nCino. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products, nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Rocket’s Bill Emerson on leading both individuals and a company through the digital age of mortgage.)

Employment

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“Top loan officers are making the move to Canopy Mortgage… Not because of a flashy signing bonus that locks them in, but because they see the long-term financial freedom that comes with real transparency. Our P&L model gives you full control over your earnings, with lower corporate margins and proprietary LOS technology designed to help you close more loans, faster. Don’t trade your future for a short-term payout. If you’re ready to build lasting success on your terms, let’s talk. Call us at 385-273-0404 or Email Us for a confidential P&L review today. Canopy Mortgage: Lower Rates. Better Tech. Real People.”

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker services, products, and software

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More homeowners are staying in their current homes, and retaining existing customers is vital for a servicer’s success. Long-lasting customers are built in the call center, and the ICE Customer Service solution can help. With Customer Service, agents can instantly review loan details, payment history and more. Plus, call prediction models use past loan behavior to anticipate why a customer may be calling, which helps agents provide personalized support and resolve more inquiries in a single call. Watch the new video to see how Customer Service can help servicers improve the customer support experience and bolster customer retention efforts, no matter the market.

“On March 3, TMS becomes the master servicer for the Arizona Industrial Development Authority (AzIDA). AzIDA’s Down Payment Assistance (DPA) programs help qualified Arizona buyers achieve homeownership with flexible financing. Interested participants can learn more by contacting Operations@HomePlusAz.com. Approved TMS lenders who are not yet approved with AzIDA must request an application by emailing Operations@HomePlusAz.com. If you are not a TMS-approved correspondent lender, please contact HFA Programs to receive an application. TMS and AzIDA will host training sessions tomorrow, on February 19. The Operations Training is at 11:00 AM MST (register here), and the Sales Training is at 12:00 PM MST (register here). We look forward to connecting with you!”

Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell said it best in his recent keynote at the Optimal Blue Summit: "Anyone out there who refers to Optimal Blue as 'legacy technology' is misleading you." Our solid technological infrastructure at Optimal Blue is a modern, cloud-native, AI-enabled, and API-first technology stack, allowing us to continually redefine the mortgage technology landscape with our innovative solutions. At the inaugural Optimal Blue Summit, we unveiled new generative AI products built to solve lenders’ real-world challenges and maximize profitability, all at no additional cost to our clients. Our latest innovations, including the Ask Obi AI assistant and Originator Assistant, are built to drive business ROI, help secure more affordable loan products, and further demonstrate our focus on providing unrivaled product and pricing accuracy. Check out Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell’s keynote session from the Summit to find out how Optimal Blue is beyond what is flashy or legacy.

“Uncle Sam says Visit Maxwell (booth #620) at ICE Experience 2025! This Presidents’ Day week, it’s time to ask not what your mortgage process can do for you but what Maxwell can do for your mortgage process. Join us at ICE Experience 2025 (Booth #620) to explore how Maxwell mortgage technology transforms your mortgage lending, with a digital experience tailored to your unique needs. Plus, be the first to see QuickPricer in action, Maxwell’s new pricing tool that helps LOs save time, build trust, and guide borrowers to confident decisions, all in one platform. Stop by Booth #620 to chat with our experts, including Maxwell VP of SaaS Michael Salichs, VP of Customer Success Amy Jo Plummer, and Enterprise Sales Executive Michael Stock. We hope to see you there!”

STRATMOR Consumer Direct workshop is now open

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STRAMOR Consumer Direct Workshop Coming to Chicago! STRATMOR Group is once again hosting its popular Consumer Direct Workshop in-person this May. Join peer lenders and STRATMOR experts Garth Graham, Brett McCracken, and Sue Woodard in Chicago, on May 21 and 22, 2025, to explore key strategies that will set you apart in a competitive market, from personalizing the customer experience to leveraging cutting-edge technology for increased efficiency. CD lenders that can differentiate themselves through superior service, innovative technology, and seamless digital experiences will be in a stronger position to survive and thrive. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to gain actionable insights that will help you succeed in the rapidly changing mortgage landscape. Space is limited! Learn more and reserve your seat today.

Conferences, webinars, training this week… they can’t hurt!

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A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

All Tuesdays at 11am PT, two veteran LOs discuss all things mortgage with Industry Leaders: Mortgage Pros 411 with Audrey Boissonou and Kevin Casey.

Check out National MI’s upcoming February 2025 webinar sessions! And looking ahead to March National MI’s upcoming March 2025 webinar sessions include Advanced Underwriting the Self-Employed Borrower - Marianne Collins, March 4th at 1 pm ET. Mortgage Mastery: Perfecting the Process for Referral Success, Rebecca Lorenz, March 6th at 1 pm ET. Mastering LinkedIn for Mortgage Professionals, Session 3 - Brynne Tillman, March 11th at 3 pm ET. Turn Your Pitch into a Success Story - Dr. Bruce Lund, March 13th at 1 pm ET. The 2025 NextGen Homebuyer Report: Key Insights for Winning More Business, Kristin Messerli, March 20th at 1 pm ET.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday’s 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Upcoming guests are, on 2/19, "MultiGen" & NextGen episode with RWM Home Loans’ Susanne Livingston, Chief Strategy Officer and Owner, and Lauren Fotsch, Director of Corporate Strategy.

Join Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) for one of four joint webinars to help lenders prepare for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign. These sessions are intended for lenders preparing for the UAD 3.6 and Forms Redesign but are open to other impacted parties (Appraisal Software Vendors, UCDP Direct Integrators, Appraisal Management Companies, etc.). Webinar dates: Wednesday, Feb. 19 – 12 p.m. ET, Thursday, Feb. 27 – 1 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Mar. 4 – 2 p.m. ET, and Thursday, Mar. 13 – 3 p.m. ET. Registration is on a first come, first served basis. If a session is filled, a waitlist will be enabled and waitlisted registrants will be notified if a slot becomes available.

Mortgage borrowers and homeowners continue to face a challenging and complicated market, are you prepared for how they will react? Join RiskSpan’s modeling team on Tuesday, February 20th at 1 p.m. ET., for a monthly update on the key market factors driving borrower behavior and our latest observations on prepayment and credit model performance.

Join MCT’s Phil Rasori, Andrew Rhodes, and Paul Yarbrough, February 20, at 11am PT., for an MCT Industry Webinar on as they discuss MCT’s Generative AI journey over the last 12 months, the pros and cons of LLMs, the gold standard of data security within AI, and how the industry’s leader in mortgage capital markets technology will responsibly introduce this technology across its software platforms.

This Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show. Patrick O’Brien, the CEO of LenderLogix, will be the guest!

Friday the 21st, listen in to opinions (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET) from Kevin Peranio, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Brian Vieaux! Register here. On this Friday’s The Last Word, KP, Brian, Christy, and Courtney will discuss President Trump's executive orders and their impact on housing and housing finance. The conversation will explore potential changes in mortgage lending, affordability, and government-backed housing programs.

MBA has partnered with PhoenixTeam to offer hands-on and actionable AI training for mortgage professionals. MBA and PhoenixTeam will set the stage for a series of virtual trainings focused on the AI Mortgage Practitioner that run from February through June. These training courses are suited for anyone who needs to contribute to the adoption and use of AI in mortgage lending. Over the summer, MBA and PhoenixTeam will host two in-person training workshops in DC (July 23-24) and Dallas (August 18-19). Day 1 will be for the AI Mortgage Practitioner and Day 2 will be advanced training for those who need to lead AI departments and initiatives. Please contact David Upbin at MBA if you have any questions and to get enrolled.

The MBA has launched a series of eleven modules to help company Board members and senior executives navigate the litany of risk and compliance considerations they face, and to equip individuals in fiduciary and executive positions to ask the tough questions of their teams. Classes are limited in size and reserved only for people in a Board or executive role. Attendees will receive a certificate of attendance to help organizations demonstrate the organizations and individual’s commitment to their role and responsibility.

Lender and investor news in Conventional Conforming Land

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Fannie Mae February Servicing Guide update introduces new and updated cybersecurity requirements for servicers and seller/servicers, as well as clarifications on shared equity.

Announcement SVC-2025-01, Servicing Guide Update.

Fannie Mae is committed to innovation that improves the housing industry with tools like Income Calculator and Closing Costs Calculator is honored to be acknowledged by HousingWire as an industry leader, View the Award.

The Fannie Mae Information Security and Business Resiliency Supplement (the “Supplement”) will introduce new and updated cybersecurity requirements that were previously contained in the Selling Guide, Servicing Guide, and Consolidated Technology Guide. Lenders (sellers, servicers, and seller/servicers) are encouraged to adopt these changes immediately but must fully implement them by Aug. 12, 2025.

On February 27, 2025, Freddie Mac is publishing the newest system-to-system (S2S) specification for Loan Product Advisor® (LPA®), version 6.0.00. Take a first look at Loan Product Advisor® (LPA®), v6.0.

Review Freddie Mac’s Limited Production Readiness Overview for Lenders to learn about the production period, including the benefits of participating, how to prepare, and the steps required to join. After reviewing and determining the criteria to participate in the Limited Production Period has been met, complete the Lender Readiness Questionnaire. Submit to UAD@FreddieMac.com, UAD_Info@FannieMae.com and copy both of your GSE account representatives. The GSEs will review your submission and readiness for participation in limited production and communicate approval and next steps via email.

A&D Mortgage’s "Fall in Love with Savings" promo has been extended through February 28, 2025! Brokers now have more time to take advantage of 0.250 pricing reductions on Conventional loans (excluding High Balance) and 0.125 reductions on Conventional High Balance loans for new loans submitted and locked within the promo period. Don’t miss this opportunity to offer your clients better pricing and grow your pipeline. Submit your loans today through the AIM Partner Portal or contact your Account Executive for details!

Capital markets: hope you like rates where they are, because…

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Last week was dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcements on tariffs. On Monday, he announced 25 percent levies on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. On Thursday, he signed a memorandum that tasked his administration with investigating current trade relations and proposing reciprocal tariffs on a country-specific basis. Still, the fact that the president did not immediately put into effect the tit-for-tat tariffs and was scant on details helped market sentiment. A favorable producer inflation report for January on Thursday also helped, as the components in it that feed directly into the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge came in soft. It also helped overcome the shock provided by a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report on Wednesday.

Fed minutes on Wednesday afternoon will be the economic highlight of the week, especially with a light calendar that will allow the market to digest all the labor and inflation data received over the first two weeks of February. Most of the data points to a strong labor market and inflation rates that appear to be accelerating, with the market taking notice as 1-year and 2-year inflation swaps trade at their highest levels since March 2023.

The Fed minutes are likely to read moderately hawkish and carry the tone of the January press conference. The overall tone should indicate that the Fed wants to see more progress on inflation, but at the same time, send a message that the Fed believes the policy is restrictive. However, the data does not support that, nor do financial conditions. If that is the message of the minutes, it should lead to the bond market bear steepening resuming, as rates at the long end of the yield curve continue to push higher.

Inflation remained a key focus last week, with new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum adding to concerns after a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Core CPI rose to 3.3 percent year-over-year, raising doubts about whether inflation is truly cooling. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also exceeded expectations, increasing to 3.6 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, retail sales dropped sharply in January, falling 0.9 percent, though upward revisions to December’s data softened the impact. Stripping out vehicles and gas, retail sales were down 0.5 percent, suggesting a weaker-than-expected start to consumer spending in 2024. Industrial production rose 0.5 percent for the month, but this was largely due to increased energy use for heating rather than actual business expansion.

Amid these developments, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress, making it clear that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. The prevailing sentiment, both inside and outside of the Eccles Building, is that given current inflation and economic conditions, any rate cuts are unlikely before the second half of the year. Treasury bonds had a strong finish to the week, with prices rising as investors reacted to the weak retail sales report, which raised concerns about slowing economic growth. Despite the mixed economic signals, global bond markets continued to attract investment, reflecting investor demand for safer assets amid ongoing uncertainty about inflation, trade policy, and the Fed’s next move.

After markets were closed yesterday for the holiday, this week’s economic calendar kicked off earlier this morning with February Empire State Manufacturing. Later today brings February NAHB Housing Market Index and December Net Long-Term TIC Flows, for those who care. Highlights for the rest of the week include January Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC Minutes from the January meeting, S&P PMIs, Existing Home Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. We begin the trading week with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Friday afternoon, the 2-year at 4.28, slightly worse, and the 10-year yielding 4.51 after closing Friday at 4.48 percent.

From Texas, Aaron P. writes, “Bigfoot frequently is confused for Sasquatch. Yeti never complains.”

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. This month’s piece is titled, “Natural Disasters and Economic Resilience.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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