1.23.25 Rates Stuck; Angel Oak's Tom Hutchens on Non-QM; Jobless Claim Trends

Thanks to Lender Toolkit's new Prism. Experience a quantum leap in accuracy and efficiency as you streamline workflows, reduce errors, and close loans faster. Prism's advanced OCR boasts 99 percent accuracy across 1,450+ document types. Effortlessly index, analyze, and underwrite crucial data with their intelligent system.

Transcript

“Be decisive. Right or wrong, make a decision. The road is paved with flat squirrels who couldn’t make a decision.” Potential borrowers wonder why mortgage rates haven’t “decided” to go down. Money is apolitical, and U.S. News reports, “Long before President Donald Trump regained control of the White House, he said on the campaign trail that he would drive down mortgage rates to 2% ‘by quickly defeating inflation.’ However, his policy proposals focusing on tariffs are more likely to rekindle inflation, while tax cuts are expected to increase the federal deficit, all of which could keep rates higher for longer. President Trump's economic agenda could have a downstream impact on mortgage rates. Generally, the expert consensus points to higher rates as a result of Trump administration policy proposals. Research shows that tariffs tend to have an inflationary effect, potentially leading to higher mortgage rates and increased homebuilding costs. Bond pricing, and thus mortgage rates, are influenced in part by fiscal policy. Some of Trump's proposed tax plans could increase the U.S. government's debt burden and keep long-term interest rates elevated.” Time will tell! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit's new Prism. Experience a quantum leap in accuracy and efficiency as you streamline workflows, reduce errors, and close loans faster. Prism's advanced OCR boasts 99 percent accuracy across 1,450+ document types. Effortlessly index, analyze, and underwrite crucial data with their intelligent system. Today’s has an interview with Angel Oak’s Tom Hutchens on demand in the non-QM space from both borrowers and investors.)

Employment

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Meet With Planet Home Lending’s Matt Payan and Candice McNaught at MBA IMB in Austin! Planet’s retail expansion is in full swing, led by industry veterans Matt Payan, SVP of Distributed Retail Sales, and Candice McNaught, SVP of Business Development and Strategic Initiatives. Join us at MBA IMB, January 27-29 in Austin, Texas, to learn how Planet’s fierce commitment to growing retail and empowering MLOs can help you thrive in 2025. With a multichannel business model, strategic leadership, and a focus on long-term success, Planet is the partner you’ve been waiting for. Seize the opportunity to connect with Matt (469-592-6630) and Candice (469-592-6631) to schedule a meeting today!

“Loan Officers! What Legacy Will You Leave? Your career is more than just a series of deals, it’s your legacy. At radius, we offer the tools, leadership, and culture to help you leave a lasting impact in the mortgage industry from the Northeast to Florida. If you’re ready to create something enduring, let’s connect and discuss your future. For confidential inquiries, contact Carla Herrera (781-742-6500).”

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking for a diverse product group to create lasting client, Realtor and builder relationships. At Banner you have Portfolio lending, Construction to Perm financing, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, and USDA along with equity products for HELOC, bridge financing and Lot Loans to serve your clients. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision looking to build or build onto their career with support for homebuyer education, CRA lending (state bond and Portfolio) as well as access to internal and external DPA to add value to your eligible clients and make more loans possible. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Correspondent and wholesale products

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“No warehouse line? No problem! Button Finance, your trusted Home Equity Lending partner, understands the challenges of working with warehouse partners to fund home equity loans. That’s why we’ve launched the Button Finance Warehouse Program exclusively for our non-delegated correspondent partners. With this program, you can now sell loans to Button Finance without needing a warehouse line or balance sheet. Our non-delegated program offers up to a 3% premium on loan sales plus 5% borrower-paid compensation. As your one-stop shop for home equity solutions (including Closed-End Seconds, HELOCs, and 1st Lien HELOCs) we close loans in under ten days, with loan amounts up to $500K, 85% CLTV, 50% DTI, and FICOs as low as 640. For more information, please contact your AE: Rob, Brock, Doug, or George, or email us.”

“We’re thrilled at AFR to introduce key enhancements on our exciting tech roadmap: just one stop on the journey to delivering more. Here's what's new now: Fresh Design: Modern look with updated buttons, fonts, and navigation. Dashboard Insights: View key metrics like Submitted to Setup and Funded loans, plus new Spotlights for updates. Quick Pricer Upgrade: See Monthly PMI for Conventional loans (LTV > 80%) directly in pricing results. New Loan Tabs: Simplified navigation with dedicated tabs for Loan Summary, Documents, Conditions, and more. Expanded URLA/1003 Edits: Easily update assets, employment, and residence details. Improved Workflow: Clearer messaging for disclosures and tracking for loans pending signatures. These updates are designed to streamline workflow and save time. Keep your eyes peeled for more exciting changes ahead! Already a client? Check out these enhancements today! Reach out: sales@afrwholesale.com, call 1-800-375-6071, or visit www.afrwholesale.com. Can’t wait to hear from you! (NMLS 2826)”

As improving homeowner affordability continues to be a pressing topic in 2025, now is the perfect time to learn more about Citi Correspondent’s Community Lending platform! Invest the time to become familiar with our 2 newest additions, HomeRun and Special Purpose Credit Program (SPCP). Citi’s HomeRun product allows up to 97% LTV, as little as a 1% borrower contribution, lender paid grants and offers pricing incentives for eligible transactions. Citi Correspondent’s SPCP supports borrowers with subject properties in designated Majority-Minority Census Tracts within select markets. This program offers four loan plan options using existing products (including HomeRun) with features that include closing cost assistance and premium pricing for qualified loans. With spring buying season just around the corner, these are two opportunity spurring programs you will want as part of your lending suite. Contact your Account Executive or complete and return our Prospective Client Questionnaire for more information.

Lender and broker services, software, and products

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One & Done. An infrequent transaction rarely leads to a lasting relationship. CRM campaigns cannot change that. Don't despair! IMBs can transform transactions into ever-lasting relationships through a lender-branded mortgage autopay platform from EarnUp. Imagine, Servicer-level branding power and monthly interactions! We call it LOLA. Learn more at IMB, or anytime!

It’s not an understatement to say that lead generation is a top priority for mortgage loan originators. Whether coming from brand new prospects or repeat business and referrals from happy clients, quality leads are the lifeblood of an LO’s pipeline. ICE recently released a blog that unpacks key best practices to successfully drive lead generation. Read the blog here to learn proven strategies to retarget existing clients, keep borrowers engaged and encourage effective referrals.

Western Alliance Bank is excited to announce that its clients can now integrate their Western Alliance bank accounts with payment operations platform, Modern Treasury, to help them automate and scale their payments, reconciliation and reporting between all their systems. With Modern Treasury’s powerful REST API platform, bank clients can streamline their businesses’ financial operations, reduce errors, and save time. It’s just another way Western Alliance Bank’s Specialized Mortgage Services Group helps businesses maximize efficiency to seamlessly manage their finances. Find out more about how Western Alliance Bank’s Cash Management integrations can work with your technology platform, and discover what their experienced and dedicated team can do for you. Modern Treasury Corp is an independent third party and not affiliated with Western Alliance Bank. Western Alliance Bank assists its commercial clients that leverage Modern Treasury’s services. Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC.

“The Key to Success in 2025: Loan Quality! Join us January 29th for the latest QC Now Webinar: Strategies for Embedding Loan Quality into Organizational DNA. As the lending industry evolves, ensuring sustainable loan quality is critical for long-term success. Through an exploration of industry trends, emerging challenges, and real-world success stories, participants will gain the knowledge necessary to make loan quality a central focus of their organizational culture. Topics include: Challenges: regulatory updates and changes that come with a new administration. Biggest challenges going into the new year. How to proactively prepare and tackle challenges head-on. The importance of maintaining loan quality and how to build a sustainable culture of quality within mortgage and servicing operations. Talk the talk and walk the walk - Real-world success stories and actionable steps to foster a quality-first culture.

Revenue & Customer service per STRATMOR

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At first blush, it’s hard to make the connection between the wine business and the mortgage industry, but according to STRATMOR Customer Experience Director Mike Seminari, there’s a strong correlation that lenders can’t afford to ignore: Just as the quality of wine depends on the soil, the strength of your mortgage business lies in the rich soil of your customer experience (CX). In our world of speed-to-revenue, we often prioritize flashy marketing and tech solutions over the more subtle yet impactful focus on our customer experience. But what if the greatest ROI lies in elevating CX? What if investing in how we serve clients could yield the strongest, most sustainable growth? Mike dives deeper into this idea in his latest CX Tip. Check out “The Case for CX ROI: Seven Ways CX Can Boost Your Bottom Line” for seven ways to invest in your customer experience that will produce financial returns in 2025.

Why LOs and brokers should care about tangible net worth

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In the mortgage industry, understanding a company’s financial strength goes beyond just looking at its balance sheet. One key metric, Tangible Net Worth, offers a more accurate picture by excluding intangible assets that can inflate a company’s value. There’s more to the story, as I wrote about for the Chrisman Commentary website. Adjustable Tangible Net Worth takes this a step further by incorporating the value of Mortgage Servicing Rights, important assets that can fluctuate with market conditions. In this article, we break down how both Tangible Net Worth and Adjustable Tangible Net Worth are calculated, why they matter, and the regulatory considerations mortgage companies must navigate to stay compliant and financially stable. Click here to learn more about these crucial financial measures.

Capital markets

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MCT has completely reimagined its digital presence on mct-trading.com to match the sophistication of its industry-leading solutions. The new website showcases MCT's market leadership through a streamlined homepage, solutions pages, and an enhanced Learning Center with advanced search capabilities. Users can now navigate MCT's comprehensive suite of integrated capital markets tools and educational content with unprecedented ease. Every aspect of the redesign focuses on creating an efficient experience, from enhanced navigation to intuitive access to critical tools at every stage of growth. The new site represents more than a design update, it's a reflection of MCT's ongoing evolution and commitment to delivering sophisticated, accessible solutions for the capital markets industry. Join the newsletter for expert analysis of capital markets technology and early access to new features.

Rate-wise, so far, it’s been a pretty uneventful holiday-shortened week this week, with scant economic releases and most of the market movement in reaction to potential/anticipated outcomes from the early days of the Trump 2.0 Presidency. Accordingly, the market held steady yesterday, exhibiting little movement.

There were, however, some key developments lenders and economists are noting. President Trump hinted at a potential 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, effective February 1, while also unveiling a $500 billion AI infrastructure fund, backed by major players like SoftBank, Oracle, and Microsoft's OpenAI. This news provided a strong lift to the tech sector, but selling in the Treasury market pushed the 10-year yield up closer to last week's closing level. Fortunately, afternoon trading saw a slight rebound in longer-tenor bonds following a solid $13 billion 20-year bond reopening.

The biggest economic report this week for mortgage investors will be tomorrow’s December existing home sales data, with expectations set for a 4.2-million-unit annualized pace. If accurate, this would mark the highest sales since last March, though there are limitations to how much it can grow, given that 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 7 percent and inventory remains tight. The current supply of existing homes for sale sits just below 1.2 million units, well below the 2.2 million average from 2000 to 2019. Simply put, there’s not much to buy when inventory is so low, which is likely to keep gross mortgage issuance subdued in 2025. Sorry MBA, but more realistic forecasts put the 2025 figure at (a modest increase from last year) to $1.2 trillion, up slightly from $1.1 trillion in 2024.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with weekly jobless claims (223k, as expected; 1.899 million continuing claims). Later today brings Kansas City Fed manufacturing for January, Treasury announcing month-end supply (consisting of $69 billion 2-year, $70 billion 5-year, $44 billion 7-year notes, and $30 billion 2-year FRNs) before auctioning $20 billion 10-year TIPS, Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and the latest policy decision from Norges Bank, which held rates steady. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices down/worse a few 32nds from Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 4.29, and the 10-year yielding 4.63 after closing yesterday at 4.60 percent.

Harry the Complainer and his wife happened to pass away on the same day and as they await their interview with St. Peter at the Pearly Gates, they're approached by an angel.

"Hello," says the angel. "I'm your host, and welcome to Heaven. In a few moments you'll be entering through our famous Pearly Gates for the most fantastic adventure you've ever experienced. You'll have a chauffeur driven limousine service anywhere in the universe, plus deluxe accommodations at our luxury hotel with all the amenities -- pool, Jacuzzi, indoor tennis courts, and more. Then after your day of relaxation, dine at any of our 5-star restaurants savoring the finest of any cuisine known to man."

At this point, Harry gives his wife a shove in the ribs with his elbow. "If it wasn't for you and that stupid oat bran, we'd have been here ten years ago!"

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. STRATMOR’s current blog is “Leaders Don’t Wait for Markets”. The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.robchrisman.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)