12.9.24 Trigger Lead Update; Optimal Blue's Jim Glennon on Market Chatter; Central Bank Calculus

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor Bundle, the attorney-prepared legal documents company that is dedicated to the real estate, mortgage, and title industries. Their tech-enabled platform fuels the operations and execution of documents from deeds to subordinations to assignments and everything you need for any order in one bundled price. Save 20% with the discount code "Chrisman" all week.

Transcript

“Wi-Fi outages are the new snow days!” Without the internet or cable, would we return to relying on newspapers, radios, and network channels for news? News has certainly spread that Senate Amendment 2358, aimed at cutting back abusive mortgage trigger leads, was unfortunately deleted yesterday from the NDAA FY 2025. (It was attached to the National Defense Authorization Act.) For a while it was an expectation, just as the Fed’s next move is an expectation… but a Fed cut is priced into the market. Your clients should know that if the Federal Open Market Committee actually does reduce the overnight federal funds rate by 25 bps at its upcoming meeting on December 17–18, it is likely that mortgage rates won’t move. But the good news is that economists do not think the labor market is positioned to be a source of inflationary pressure headed into 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Bundle, the attorney-prepared legal documents company that is dedicated to the real estate, mortgage, and title industry. Save 20 percent all week with the code “Chrisman.” Hear an interview with Optimal Blue’s Jim Glennon on what his hedging clients are paying attention to as we close out 2024 and move into 2025.)

LO & Ops jobs, a transition

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“GVC Mortgage Expands Leadership Team! GVC Mortgage is excited to announce the addition of Tommy Owen and Robert Neighbors to our leadership team. With 60 years of combined industry expertise, they will play key roles in expanding GVC’s retail presence in new states and supporting strategic growth initiatives. Tommy and Robert’s leadership will be instrumental as we navigate the competitive mortgage market and work to expand our footprint. Jim Janczy, SVP-National Director of Strategic Lending, shared, “Tommy and Robert are proven leaders whose values align perfectly with GVC. Their experience will be critical to our next phase of growth.” Please join us in welcoming Tommy and Robert to GVC Mortgage. We’re eager to see how their contributions will shape our future success! If you would like to learn more about joining GVC, please reach out to Tommy (501-580-0094) or Robert (501-258-7723).”

Massachusetts’ Mortgage Equity Partners announced the addition of 20+ year vet Karina Melkumyan as its new Underwriting Manager. “Her extensive experience in underwriting and program management, combined with her passion for innovation and excellence, makes her a perfect fit for our team. We are confident that her leadership will strengthen our underwriting operations and help us continue delivering exceptional service to our clients.” said Sean Riley, Founder and Owner.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, services, and products

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Is your LOS investment averaging a 5:1 return? To combat today’s tight margins and high operating costs, lenders are focusing on new ways to drive efficiency and profitability. ICE recently partnered with independent market research firm MarketWise Advisors, LLC to evaluate the financial impact of the Encompass® platform on its clients. Download the full summary of their comprehensive study to explore the significant ROI and cost-saving benefits the platform provides.

As 2025 approaches, it’s time for brokers to align their product offerings with market demand… and HomeEQ, Arc Home’s fully digital HELOC solution, should be at the top of the list. With U.S. home equity reaching $33.8 trillion, clients are looking for smarter ways to access this value without refinancing their low mortgage rates. The newly released HomeEQ Broker Playbook is your guide to seamlessly integrating HELOCs into your product mix. This 30-day marketing resource takes all the guesswork out of building a campaign, providing customizable tools to help you connect with past borrowers and attract new clients. HomeEQ offers brokers a straightforward path to new revenue streams by meeting today’s equity-rich market demand with speed and simplicity. Download the playbook today and position HomeEQ as a cornerstone of your 2025 strategy. To learn more or to schedule a personalized training session on HomeEQ’s fast, easy, and convenient broker portal, reach out to Shea Pallante today.

“AFR, Committed to Your Success! As we reflect on this season of gratitude, we, at AFR, want to extend our heartfelt thanks to our incredible clients. Your trust and collaboration inspire us every day to deliver elevated products, competitive pricing, and exceptional service that meet your evolving needs. This year, we’ve focused on enhancing our Loan Center platform to streamline processes and reduce friction points, making it easier for you to succeed. Alongside these improvements, we’re committed to offering great pricing and continually refining our product offerings to help move your business forward. At AFR, we believe success is a shared journey, and we’re honored to grow alongside you. Together, we’re achieving new heights and shaping a stronger future. Thank you for being an essential part of our journey—we’re excited to continue building with you! Connect at sales@afrwholesale.com, call 1-800-375-6071, or visit www.afrwholesale.com. (NMLS 2826)”

“Tired of dealing with AMCs that leave you frustrated and in the dark? Let Class Valuation change that. With Class Valuation, every client gets a dedicated account executive who serves as your single point of contact for all your appraisal needs. Reach them anytime, via text, cell, or email, 24/7. We understand that in this business, relationships, and accessibility matter. No more being passed around or left wondering who to call. Our account executives are committed to providing the personalized, responsive service you deserve. From managing your orders to answering your questions, they’re here to ensure a seamless and stress-free experience. At Class Valuation, we believe in putting people first and creating a support model tailored to your needs. Build trust, experience reliability, and enjoy a level of service that stands apart from the rest. Discover the difference today. Let us show you how relationships drive results.”

The Guinness World Record for the largest gingerbread village is held by Jon Lovitch, who constructed a village comprising 1,251 buildings in 2017. While this “sweet” village builder worked alone, the builders in your network are working with many other lenders. And understanding who they are collaborating with is a key component to your ongoing success. MMI’s custom Builder Partner Reports uncover the top lenders your builder works with, along with transaction counts and closed business details. You’ll also discover the exact LOs collaborating with your builder partners, giving you the opportunity to recruit top talent and strengthen relationships. With this new data, you can outpace the competition, enhance your alliances, and position yourself as the preferred lender. Build partnerships that last long after the icing sets. Request your custom Builder Partner Report today, and let MMI provide insights to help your business thrive!

Kick off your 2025 by scaling your growth with mortgage-specific reporting and insights. In our competitive and data-driven industry, timely and accurate information is crucial. Maxwell’s comprehensive business intelligence and data reporting solution (Maxwell Business Intelligence) is designed to address the unique challenges faced by lenders, enabling you to streamline operations, enhance decision-making, and boost profitability, especially in a high-interest rate environment. Toss out your expensive data analytics tools that lack mortgage-specific stats and unlock new growth opportunities with actionable, data-driven insights. Schedule a demo of Maxwell Business Intelligence today. 

Training, webinars, and events

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How did Thuan Nguyen close 11,600 loans in just two years? Hear how on Friday, December 12, 2024, at 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT, on the NMP Webinar “Learn from the #1 Loan Officer in America.” This will transform how you think about originations. Thuan will reveal how to run your business-like a pro, tackle challenges, and exceed your 2025 goals. From building client trust to adapting to a competitive market, this webinar will provide actionable insights to take your production to new heights. Many loan officers fail to fully embrace the entrepreneurial mindset, competitive drive, adaptability, trust-building, and work ethic required to thrive in a challenging market. Hear from Thuan how to get serious about originations in 2025 by registering here.

A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future.

The California MBA hosts the 2024 Legal Issues and Compliance Conference for an exclusive opportunity to attend our dynamic panel on Enforcement, Litigation, and Fair Lending Trends. This year's conference is being held on today through tomorrow at the Irvine Marriott Hotel. Dive into the latest developments and priorities shaping the landscape of fair lending, as our expert panelists unravel the complexities of enforcement and litigation.

Technology and innovation in residential lending are the focus of Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET.

The past few years have been challenging for credit union mortgage lenders, but 2024 offered glimpses of hope with some positive trends. Will this momentum lead to brighter times and higher volumes ahead? Only time will tell, but experts are weighing in on what it takes to succeed in 2025 amidst a shifting market and evolving compliance demands. ACUMA President Peter Benjamin, Rob Chrisman, Owner of Chrisman LLC., and Michael Christians, Regulatory Compliance Counsel, offer a jam-packed discussion tomorrow at 1PM CST, 2PM ET.

Tomorrow and all Tuesdays at 11am PT, two veteran LOs discuss all things mortgage with Industry Leaders: Mortgage Pros 411 with Audrey Boissonou and Kevin Casey. This week features Bill Dallas of Dallas Capital.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday’s 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. This week is Jason Miazza, Chief Marketing Officer of CarShield.

National MI’s upcoming December webinar sessions include: Income Case Studies with Marianne Collins, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 10:00 AM - 11:30 AM PST. On Tuesday, Dec. 17, at 11:00 AM, join Freddie Mac’s Mia Jones and Kim Carr for an informative webinar on Expanding Origination Opportunities in Today's Market. And join Dr. Bruce Lund and Maggie Mae for Business Planning for Expected Rate Cuts in 2025, Thursday, Dec. 19, 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM PST.

CAMP has the Broker Round Table with Michelle Berman, Thursday, December 12th at 11:00 am PST., Leverage: How to Prospect on Instagram and Win. Michelle will teach you how to understand the power of leverage and how you can use it to create opportunities off Instagram.

CFOs and finance pros, unlock the power of AI at MBA’s Accounting and Financial Management Conference, December 11-13, Phoenix, AZ. Offering the latest guidance on what’s ahead for accounting and financial management professionals in both the single-family and commercial/multifamily markets. Hear an analysis on the current state of the markets and insights into accounting implications caused by today’s top real estate finance issues. Earn CPE credits in mortgage specific topics.

Arch MI's housing update webinar (“Gauging the Good, the Bad and the Unknown”) is at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT on Thursday, Dec. 12th. The complimentary Housing Update webinar with HaMMR℠ Digest features authors Parker Ross (Arch’s Global Chief Economist) and Leonidas Mourelatos (Assistant Vice President of Real Estate Economics). The live session features expert analysis of the latest housing data and outlook as we approach the start of a new year.

The CAMP Broker Round Table is with Michelle Berman, December 12th at 11:00 AM PST. Michelle will teach you how to understand the power of leverage and how you can use it to create opportunities off Instagram. If you want to have more conversations than ever and create more opportunities than you ever have in 2025, then this class is for you.

The USDA SFHGLP Top Tips for Confident Credit Underwriting free is on Thursday, December 12, 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm ET. The virtual session discusses topics include examining lender credit underwriting responsibility; determining credit guidelines based on the Guaranteed Underwriting System (GUS) underwriting recommendation; evaluating applicant eligibility based on credit history; and answering your frequently asked questions.

On December 12, from 1:00 – 2:15 p.m. ET, The National Association of Realtors® will hold a virtual economic and real estate summit that will provide a year-end review of 2024 and outlook on the real estate market and the economy for 2025. NAR Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research Dr. Lawrence Yun and NAR Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Dr. Jessica Lautz will share a year-end analysis, 2025 forecast and the latest buyer demographic data. A recording of the event will be made available to REALTORS® as a value-added resource to be used in discussing and strategizing the market with clients.

Thursday will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show.

Friday, listen in to opinions (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET) from Kevin Peranio and Brian Vieaux! Register here.

End this week with The Mortgage Collaborative’s The Fix with Melissa Langdale covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT.

FHA Training Opportunity on Minimum Property Standards in Special Flood Hazard Areas,

December 17, 1-2 PM ET. This free, virtual training will provide homebuilders and other interested parties with an overview of the new construction requirements for site-built, FHA-insured residential structures. Attendees will learn about the new Minimum Property Standards requirement for one- to four-unit homes or units in condominium projects or legal phases concerning the lowest floor in newly constructed structures located within special flood hazard areas. There will be a Q&A session at the end.

Plaza Home Mortgage® recently hosted an insightful webinar introducing Plaza's new Investor AUS Interest-Only loan program. Covered were the program's key features and how it can serve as an alternative solution for your investor clients. A copy of the presentation slides and webinar recording is available to review at your leisure. You can also access any of Plaza’s previous trainings on the Plaza client webpage under the “Training Center” tab.

Capital markets: quiet ahead of next week’s Fed news

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The U. S. economy is driven by jobs and housing, and last week closed with a robust reading of U.S. labor market growth in November (+227k jobs), rebounding from a weak October reading (revised from +12k to +36k) that was depressed due to strikes and hurricanes. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent, indicative of a labor market that continues to lose momentum gradually as the Fed “attempts to land the plane gently.”

The expectation is still that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut the federal funds rate by another 25-basis points at its upcoming meeting on December 17–18, however it has become more likely that the central bank will be in a wait and see pattern as the calendar turns to 2025. The bond market rallied on the report, with the 10-year bond yield shedding a couple of basis points to close last week at the lowest level in five weeks.

This week brings the Consumer Price Index, which, along with consumer spending, will be the last important economic report before the FOMC meeting. Markets will also receive producer prices on Thursday and Treasury will conduct the mini-Refunding over Tuesday to Thursday, consisting of $58 billion 3-year notes, $39 billion reopened 10-years, and $22 billion 30-years.

No speakers are currently scheduled as the Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. However, global markets will digest the latest monetary policy decisions by the RBA tomorrow (no change expected), Bank of Canada on Wednesday (50-basis points cut expected), SNB (50-basis points cut expected), and ECB on Thursday (25-basis points cut expected). Besides Class A tomorrow, Class B 48-hours is on Friday. Today’s economic calendar gets under way later this morning with the Employment Trends Index for November and wholesale inventories and sales for October. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Friday, the 2-year at 4.10, and the 10-year yielding 4.16 after closing Friday at 4.15 percent.

Three men died on Christmas Eve and were met by Saint Peter at the pearly gates.

“In honor of this holy season” Saint Peter said, “You must each possess something that symbolizes Christmas to get into heaven.”

The Englishman fumbled through his pockets and pulled out a lighter. He flicked it on. “It’s a candle,” he said.

“You may pass through the pearly gates,” said Saint Peter.

The Scotsman reached into his pocket and pulled out a set of keys. He shook them and said, “They’re bells.”

Saint Peter said, “You may pass through the pearly gates.”

The Irishman started searching desperately through his pockets and finally pulled out a pair of ladies’ panties.

St. Peter looked at the man with a raised eyebrow and asked, “And just what do those symbolize?”

The Irishman replied, “These are Carols.”

And so, the Christmas Season continues…