12.3.24 True Home Buying Costs; UHM and WithLove's Tay Scheibe on #GivingTuesday; Foreign and Domestic Attention

To stay competitive in this market, lenders need to find efficiencies and understand their operations in a much deeper way. Richey May’s consulting, cybersecurity, business intelligence, and automation services are designed by mortgage experts to help you continue to drive growth and increase profitability. Visit https://richeymay.com to learn more.

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Tis the season to have some fun, right? How about we start with this interesting musical duo? While the CFPB’s proposal addressing the selling of data has garnered some attention, with the Winter Solstice less than three weeks away and it isn’t exactly the season when home buying picks up. Nor are interest rates or insurance costs cooperating. But those two aren’t the only obstacle. Clever found that the true cost of buying a home includes an additional $31,975 in home-buying expenses for buyers on top of their down payment. And that figure doesn't include the average of $12,944 in commission buyers may pay their agents if the seller doesn't. On average, home buyers spend the following amounts on repairs and renovations ($13,498), furniture, fixtures, and appliances ($6,446), closing costs ($4,754), concessions to the seller ($3,943), moving costs ($2,670), and private mortgage insurance ($387 annually). (Today’s podcast can be found here and Richey May is sponsoring this week’s. Richey May’s consulting, cybersecurity, business intelligence, and automation services are designed by mortgage experts to help you continue to drive growth and increase profitability. Hear an interview with Union Home Mortgage and WithLove Charity’s Tay Schiebe about #GivingTuesday and the ways you and your organization can make a difference both in and beyond your community.)

Employment

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Thomas Michel, a veteran in wholesale lending, is set to unveil Brokers Choice Mortgage (BCM), a new third-party origination (TPO) company. Drawing on his extensive experience in growing a prior wholesale venture to an impressive $1.5 billion annually, Michel is confident that BCM's cutting-edge technology, extensive line of products, and top-notch team will enable the company to achieve $3 billion in annual production by 2028. BCM stands out as a 100% wholesale platform, strategically owned and operated by wholesale experts. Want to be part of this amazing opportunity? Write to Careers@brokerschoicemtg.com.

Don’t forget that the major private mortgage insurance companies have job sites: MGIC, Enact, Essent, Arch, National MI, and Radian.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, services, and products

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Join ICE for the Mortgage Monitor webinar where you’ll gain critical insights into U.S. housing and mortgage market trends. The information presented in this preeminent, widely attended monthly webinar is based on the most current data available from ICE's vast mortgage, housing and property data assets, including the largest servicer-contributed loan-level database in the industry. Learn how borrower demand, housing affordability, interest rates, available equity, and other factors may impact your lending strategies. Register for the next webinar which will be hosted this Thursday, December 5, from 2 – 3 p.m. ET.

Did you leave the IMN-MSR Forum in NYC with a plan for your 2025 diligence and oversight needs? The Clayton team is ready to continue our conversations with you regarding audit support, compliance testing, operational reviews and so much more. For 30 years, Clayton’s Servicing Oversight solutions have helped residential and commercial servicers reduce risk and ensure that processes meet quality, compliance, and reporting standards, as well as comply with regulatory, rating agency and investor requirements. 2025 could be another challenging year for servicers in terms of new regulations and changing expectations from investors: Will you be ready? Email Tom Coffey, Clayton VP of Business Development, to learn more about how Clayton Servicing Oversight can help your team.

“Is it a challenge getting what was promised out of your current subservicer? New regulations are always moving the compliance goal posts, and your customers are craving the newest technology and high-quality customer experience to meet their needs. After all, aren’t those the reasons you contracted with them? Perhaps it’s time for a change. Come meet Servbank at the MBA Servicing Solutions 2025 and let us show you how our cutting-edge, fully transparent and award-winning servicing platform (SIME), combined with our family of caring Customer Care reps, will protect your company from regulatory misses and keep your customers loyal by delivering a superior experience every time. If your current subservicer promised to make life easier for you, but continues to miss the mark, now is the time to partner with Servbank, the nation’s premier bank subservicer, who can meet your unique needs. Stop by booth #506 or schedule a meeting with Servbank.”

Compliance for Mortgage Companies: A Guide to Avoiding Common Violations. Compliance is a serious priority for mortgage companies, and understanding the common pitfalls is essential to managing risk. Ncontracts’ latest guide covers the most common compliance violations found in the mortgage industry (including examples of mortgage lenders that got in trouble with regulators) and offers actionable tips to help streamline compliance management, minimize risks, and keep your operations on track. This guide covers why mortgage companies struggle with compliance, the laws & regulations that trip up mortgage companies, and how to simplify compliance and reduce regulatory risk. Download the full guide for more.

Down Payment Resource is spreading some preholiday cheer, happily unwrapping FHA’s Annual Report to Congress that shows 16.90% of FHA purchase mortgage endorsements in FY 2024 used down payment assistance (from a government source as opposed to a gift). If you’re not hearing the angels sing (yet), consider that in 2023 only 14.98% of borrowers with FHA mortgages used DPA, and in 2022 that was 13.65%. “While this tells a promising story, we recognize there’s still a lot of work to do to close the gap between how many FHA borrowers are using DPA and how many more could have used DPA to qualify. Our resolution for 2025 is to continue to put DPA in the spotlight and spread the word on how DPA helps lenders lower decline rates and boost CRA lending,” notes DPR’s founder and CEO Rob Chrane. Cheers for that! Schedule a demo today to learn more.

Correspondent and wholesale products

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“Join the Revolution in Wholesale Lending with Brokers Choice Mortgage! We’re not just redefining the lending experience, we’re setting a new gold standard for excellence in wholesale lending. Backed by decades of expertise and deep commitment to customer-focused service, we offer our brokers a unique level of partnership. We offer a full line of products (Conventional & Government), including industry’s best Non-QM loans, ensuring we meet the diverse needs of every client. We’re more than just a lender, we’re your dedicated partner in success. Our expert underwriters go beyond the numbers, forging meaningful relationships, turning challenges into opportunities. Seasoned AEs who understand the importance of concierge-level service and are looking to 3X their volume, get in touch with us! We offer wide open territory from coast to coast. Aggressive pricing! Competitive compensation plan! Cutting-edge technology and we are 100% wholesale operated by experts! Apply here.”

Top LO Matt Weaver and Robbie Chrisman (Part 1 of 3)

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Recently Robbie Chrisman sat down with Cross Country’s Matt Weaver, ranked No. 1 for Most Loans Closed and No. 4 in Top Dollar Volume in 2023. Hearing his perspective is a must, given the election results, rates, and drooping MBA forecasts for 2025 for the industry. Matt dropped out of high school and happened to be waiting on a top real estate agent… and, well, you can guess the story.

“I was always curious. I remain curious. I'm curious today. I think we should always remain curious and always open to learning new things, asking questions all the time, and that allows us, that gives us a lot more exposure. Okay, so in essence, I looked at this customer that would walk into the restaurant all the time. I mean, he just looked like a million bucks. His smile, his energy, what he was wearing was just really just stood out. So, at one point, I dug up the confidence okay to go and deliver his lunch to his table rather than the server. And I said, ‘Sir, what do you do for work? And he just went right into his opening lines, which it was at that point in time, interestingly enough, that I learned the importance of an elevator speech, of having your opening lines ready, so no matter who you're speaking to, you can convey what it is that you do in the appropriate manner and try and convince whomever you're speaking to about your services.

‘The reason why we are where we are in terms of a mortgage team is we know who our customer is. My competitive advantage has always been singleness of purpose, knowing who our customer is, and our customer is the real estate agent. Knowing who your customer is allows you to focus on that customer. It allows you to figure out process flows that best accommodate them. It allows you to come up with unique value propositions. It allows you to come up with certain strategies that you can share with them on how they can increase market share themselves. I have a very narrow focus as to who my customer is, which makes it a whole lot easier.

“Let’s pretend for a moment that a divorce attorney called me, they owned one of the largest practices here in South Florida, and said, ‘I heard great things about you, Matt, we'd like to refer you several cases a month.’ It could be 10, it could be 15, it could be 20. I would have to be honest with them and say, ‘I'm not the best fit.’ I think to be great at anything, you have to specialize. I would say that is our greatest superpower and our greatest strength.

“Within my team structure, I don't have originators writing business under my name. I'm the single originator that generates the business. Now I have an incredible team that facilitates my personal production. So that's really what stands us apart from the rest.

“The NAR settlement, without a doubt, is the greatest change that could have ever happened to their industry. About three months leading up to the settlement we were doing 110 to 120 seminars a year on ‘Winning the Buyer,’ all about how to have a strong buyer presentation, so you can convey value, so you can get the buyer on board with your services.

“I stepped back from the NAR settlement news and found opportunity in the changes. For example, buyer’s agents, pre-August 17, were working with buyers that were not necessarily loyal to them. (To be blunt, the saying ‘buyers are liars’ came about through a lack of loyalty.) Now, in today's market, they have more loyalty, which is a great thing. Buyer’s agents stand to earn more compensation post-August 17, leading up to pre-August 17, why is that? Leading up to August 17, a buyer agent's income was determined off of the skill set of the listing agent, so if a listing agent had a strong listing presentation and was able to secure 3% for cooperating commission, then the buyer's agent commission was 3%. But if a listing agent had a weaker listing presentation and was only able to secure 4% and only able to give 2% to the buyer agent, and the buyer's agent's compensation was 2%. So, it was dependent on the skill set of a listing agent, where, in today's market now, it's dependent on them as a buyer agent and their level of presentation to the client. See the difference?” (More from Mr. Weaver tomorrow and Thursday.)

Capital markets: take your pick, foreign or domestic news

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Up until this Autumn, the prevailing sentiment in the markets consisted of a more dovish outlook than the Fed and its members. In January, markets were pricing in 150-basis points of easing by year-end, with the first cut coming sometime before the Summer. Fed officials said over and over again that they were in no rush to cut. Despite this, the market’s forward-looking optimism hoped that receding inflation would push the Fed to cut its target rate more than FOMC members in public statements and the dot plot were suggesting. The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation was still above its 2 percent target and would require a sustained period of restrictive monetary policy. Policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, cautioned against premature easing, focusing on data dependency and emphasizing "higher for longer" rate levels.

That sentiment has flipped somewhat of late, with markets now more hawkish than the Fed based on rate cut odds versus remarks from Federal Open Market Committee members. While the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependence and keeping options open, markets are signaling an expectation that taming inflation may require even more prolonged restrictive policy than the Fed currently projects. Monetary policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent and all recent public statements suggest that we are in for another 25-basis points cut later this month. Markets will get a better idea of policymakers’ 2025 plans at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on December 18th, when the Fed publishes forecasts for key economic indicators and the fed funds rate for the next three years.

Want another abbreviation to remember? The week began with a warning from President-elect Trump to the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) of a 100 percent tariff on their exports to the U.S. if they adopt alternatives to the U.S. dollar in global trade. That wasn’t the only political tension on the day, as France's Prime Minister Barnier is expected to face a confidence vote after pushing through a budget for 2025. Remember, capital markets staff do not like uncertainty, as it leads to volatility.

In terms of economic data here in the States, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November was revised up to just below the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Though it is still contracting, it is still an improvement from earlier estimates. Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, rising to reflect a slower pace of decline compared to the previous month. These reports suggested that manufacturing activity, while still weak, may be bottoming out. Total construction spending rose 0.4 percent during October. The monthly gain was the result of a broad-based upturn in the residential category. Single-family, multifamily, and home improvement outlays all picked up solidly during October, reflecting lower interest rates and hopes for easier monetary policy moving forward. Meanwhile, total nonresidential spending pulled back during October.

Today’s economic calendar kicks off in mid-morning with Redbook same store sales and will be followed by the first of this week’s labor market indicators: JOLTS job openings for October (expectations are for 7.60 million versus 7.44 million previously). After that, the Treasury will conduct some short-duration auctions, and two Fed speakers are currently scheduled: Governor Kugler and Chicago’s Goolsbee. We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Monday evening, the 2-year yielding 4.18, and the 10-year yielding 4.21 after closing yesterday at 4.20 percent.

We’re coming up on the holiday travel season, so let’s skip the usual humor or trivia and put out some advice from a retired flight attendant who flew for 35 years. Weather delays, equipment or crew issues, and computer glitches seem to have become the norm. (Part 2 of 5.)

5. Summer is thunderstorm season. Snow in the winter. A single storm can shut down a whole airport which has a domino effect across the system. Planes do not fly through them. Storms usually build as the day gets later.

6. Schedule long layovers. Your 1-hour layover is not enough anymore. 30 minutes, not a chance. 2 hours minimum, depending on the airport.

7. Every airline is short-staffed and definitely overworked. Not just pilots and flight attendants, but also ground crews. Without ground crews there is no one to park the planes, drive jetways, get your bags on/off planes, or scan boarding passes. This causes many delays that snowballs throughout the day.

8. When flight crews get delayed, we time out. We cannot fly longer than 16 hours. It’s illegal. So, it doesn’t matter if you have a wedding to go to, when we are done, we are done. If there are no back up crews, your flight cancels.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current STRATMOR blog is “A Lender’s Personal Touch Can Help After a Disaster.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.robchrisman.com. Copyright 2024 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)