10.28.24 Denver Kickoff; Truv's Kirill Klokov on Customer Happiness; Upcoming Risk Events

This week’s podcast is sponsored by Truv. Truv lets applicants verify income, employment, assets, insurance, and switch direct deposits. Unlock the power of open finance, with Truv. 

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Thousands of lenders and vendors braved the gate lice to fly to Denver (the term for people who crowd around the gate at an airport, sometimes in an attempt to board early). Critics of Denver will tell you that it is “Kansas with a view of the mountains.” Heard in the hallways here in Denver… “Guys have it so much easier. One suit, 3 shirts, 3 ties, one pair of shoes. We have to assemble two complete outfits for every day, and I rarely bring less than six pairs of shoes to these events.” “You pointed out a few days ago that this conference center has 2.2 million square feet. I didn’t believe it until now… And that doesn’t even include the surrounding hotels. I need 15 minutes between meetings to get anywhere. I wish they allowed bikes.” “What happened to hotels that have doors in the bathroom?” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra seems to have struck a nerve with Mortgage Musings author and attorney Brian Levy after the phrase, “leeches who only want to pad their billable hours” came up. In his latest Musing, Levy also offers his unique take on the MBA’s new white paper on RESPA Section 8 reform that will be presented today here at the MBA Annual Conference by Levy. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by Truv. Truv lets applicants verify income, employment, assets, insurance, and switch direct deposits. Unlock the power of open finance, with Truv. Hear an interview with Truv’s Kirill Klokov on how happy customers are the definition of success and how Truv is addressing a need in the industry.)

Employment, servicer wanted, & transitions

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Rhyze Solutions, the capital markets CUSO owned in partnership with Everwise Credit Union, Allied Solutions, and Vantage West Credit Union, announced the addition of Bjorn Peterson as Managing Director of Rhyze Residential. This announcement comes in tandem with the company’s plans to launch a suite of residential loan and liquidity solutions for its network of partners. Peterson is a familiar face to the residential lending industry, as well as the management of Rhyze Solutions. After 18 years at TCF Bank, where he was instrumental in the development and launch of its national TPO HELOC channel, Peterson spent 6 years as a builder and senior executive of a well-known national HELOC lender alongside several other Rhyze executives. As Rhyze will be adding team members to support this residential asset class, interested parties are encouraged to watch for job openings at rhyze.com/careers, as well as Rhyze LinkedIn, or email info@rhyze.com.

“SecurityNational Mortgage Company Welcomes More Top Talent! SecurityNational Mortgage Company (SNMC) continues its momentum by welcoming elite mortgage professionals nationwide, furthering our commitment to creating amazing experiences for our customers. We continue to grow throughout the country with new Teams in Texas, Arizona, Southern Utah, Georgia, California, and the Northeast. These new team members are among the top talent choosing to build their careers with SNMC. ‘Our focus on excellence continues to attract and obtain outstanding individuals to SNMC,’ says Joel Harward, Senior Vice President at SNMC. ‘Their expertise strengthens our ability to deliver exceptional service while contributing to our culture of success.’ As a trusted name in the mortgage industry, SNMC continues to grow by providing professionals with the support, technology, and resources needed to thrive in today's market. Discover your potential with SNMC. Learn more about career opportunities here!”

“Are you a non-bank mortgage servicer with FNMA/FHLMC approval looking to scale your operations or attract new investment? BlackWolf Advisory Group represents a leading investment firm, exploring strategic acquisitions or investment opportunities. Our client is eager to partner with servicers like you to unlock growth potential and drive success. If you’re ready to elevate your business and seize new opportunities, please contact Mirza Hodzic; 904-207-8331 for a confidential discussion.”

On the flip side of the coin, the production leadership of NEO Home Loans was “exited” by Luminate. Luminate acquired a decent size chunk of production when Celebrity Home Loans shut down. “Luminate, a leader in relationship-centered mortgage and digital banking services, will wind down the NEO Division of its home mortgage business over the coming months. The decision reflects Luminate’s focus on integrating mortgage lending into its core banking services to better serve clients and build long-term financial relationships. A production team within Luminate Home Loans, the NEO Division, will close by the end of February 2025. During the transition period, Luminate is committed to originating all loans with the same level of professionalism and care clients have come to expect. The company is working closely with affected team members, providing them with resources and opportunities to transition into other roles within the organization where possible.”

Flagstar continues to scale back. Call it 700 or 1,900, I’ve seen several sets of figures. But the fact is that after the sale to NYCB costs are being reduced dramatically.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, services, and products

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Servicers know the pressure of dealing with credit disputes. With only a limited 30-day window to investigate disputes, there’s a lot to do, and no time to waste. Yet many operations are still hampered by overly manual workflows that complicate the credit dispute process and put servicers at risk of missing their reporting obligations. In a new blog, ICE explores how automated, integrated technology can help servicers streamline dispute investigations, manage their back-office pipelines and preserve a “one-click” audit trail for compliance purposes. Read the blog to see how ICE is helping servicers work more efficiently at a time when time matters most.

“Uplist is excited to announce the launch of RECAPTURE™, a comprehensive refinance solution. Unlike other industry “rate alerts,” Uplist’s RECAPTURE™ accurately automates the entire refinance analysis process, helping loan officers capitalize on refinance opportunities in a fraction of the time. This fully automated system takes the guesswork out of refinancing, providing loan officers with precise, personalized refi opportunities in seconds. Seamlessly integrating with top pricing engines like Optimal Blue and Polly, RECAPTURE™ empowers you to deliver tailored refi solutions to clients with unparalleled speed and accuracy. Secure a demo to start your comprehensive refinance strategy or email us. If you’re in Denver, reach out to Jeff Bell.”

“Maxwell wants to meet you at MBA Annual at booth #301. Maxwell is thrilled to welcome our mortgage partners to our hometown of Denver, CO. Maxwell powers all the ways you do mortgage with the only ecosystem of integrated software, services, and capital. From our fully customizable Point of Sale to our mortgage-focused Business Intelligence, fully-onshore Fulfillment services and competitive Secondary pricing, Maxwell is your partner for everything mortgage. Stop by booth #301 at the show to pick up one of our famous milk frothers or other premium swag. You can’t miss us. We look forward to seeing you there!”

Commercial Lending is experiencing hyper growth due to $1.5 trillion in ballooning loans over the next 3-5 years. There is a shortage of commercial mortgage brokers, and with banks liquidity issues, a perfect storm is brewing for the secondary market that will create massive deal flow. Chris Perez, Envestion Commercial Lending, a 25-year veteran, is offering a broker partnership, turnkey with training, custom web site, tools, and marketing / leads. He is looking for 5-10 brokers per state where they are given the marketing and leads, take the application, and then turn the commercial loan over for processing, underwriting, and closing, all while continuing to do your normal residential business. Schedule an appointment today to see if you qualify or join the free weekly seminar every Wednesday 1PM EST. Adding commercial to your book of business is a way to expand your current product line while substantially increasing revenue.

Free Colorado beer + Dara demos at Sagent’s MBA Booth 401. Who doesn’t enjoy a local brew while talking about the future of servicing when attending mortgage events? For this year’s MBA Annual, the Sagent team has you covered with a tasteful beer garden, cornhole competitions, unified servicing solutions, and of course signature SWAG… And you can find it all at booth 401. Plus, on 10/29 at 2 PM on the HUB stage, catch a glimpse of Dara AI Docs and see for yourself how the platform classifies, indexes, and extracts data from loan documents with incredible speed and accuracy to deliver intelligence that powers the entire loan lifecycle – at any scale. Great opportunities to get ahead of your servicing game, and did we mention free beer? Check out what else Sagent will be up to while at MBA Annual. 

Correspondent, wholesale, and investor tidbits

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“Exciting Updates at the New AFR: Enhancing the Broker Experience: At AFR, we’re committed to making your business smoother and more efficient. Starting October 16, we introduced new tools to transform how you communicate with us. Direct Messaging at the Loan Level: Easily reach any team member on your loan. Improved Service Requests: Submit and track inquiries for faster, clearer responses. To enhance efficiency, we’re moving all loan communication to our Loan Center Portal, ensuring quick answers, streamlined solutions, and a more transparent process. This shift means no more email back-and-forth—just fast, stress-free support to help you succeed. Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to elevate your experience. Join us and discover the AFR difference today! Contact us at sales@afrwholesale.com, call 1-800-375-6071, or visit here (NMLS 2826)”

“LoanStream wants you to close more loans, so we are offering a new informational webinar "Unlocking Non-QM: LIVE Q&A with Non-QM Expert, Shaun Dennison, EVP of Non-Conforming" on November 14th! Attendees are encouraged to come ready with specific questions for this Special Q&A session. Get your toughest questions answered on any Non-QM program and we’ll provide insights on how these loans can help you expand your market. Register now and reserve a spot for you or your entire team. Webinar Registration LoanStream Wholesale - Wholesale Mortgage Lending. Interested in expanding your pipeline with these innovative Non-QM loans including Bank Statement/Alt doc, Full Doc, Asset Depreciation, DSCR, Foreign National, 1099, WVOE, Closed End Seconds and Short term rentals, Get Approved today: Get Approved LoanStream Wholesale - Wholesale Mortgage Lending.”

MBA Residential Future Leaders

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MBA is accepting applications for the 2025 Residential Future Leaders Program. Graduates of this program walk away as more confident and polished leaders in both their organization and in the industry. Admission includes attendance at MBA’s National Advocacy Conference, a summer session back in DC that includes a trip to the Lincoln Leadership Institute in Gettysburg, and graduation at MBA’s Annual Convention. Led by Peter Grace, AMP, Senior Vice President at MBA, and Bronwyn Morrissey, AMP, CMB, Professional Coach, Future Leaders will challenge the way you think about your leadership style and approach, and give you actionable tools to grow personally and professionally. Students will make lifelong connections with professionals from all corners of the industry and graduates will be admitted into the Future Leaders Alumni Group upon graduation. Follow in the footsteps of industry icons that include Troy Garris, Seth Sprague, Nolan Turner, Christy Soukhamneut, Steven Plaisance, and many more! Applications are due November 29 and please contact David Upbin if you have any questions.

Capital markets: election conjecturing is the name of the game

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Last week was relatively light in terms of economic data, but housing was in focus. Total existing home sales declined 1 percent in September to an annual pace of 3.84 million units which was the slowest pace since 2010. Despite lower rates during that time, home prices remained high and were 3.0 percent above their level from twelve months ago. Since September 2019, home prices have risen almost 50 percent higher due to continued low supply, which isn't exactly a new phenomenon. The resale supply of single-family homes is roughly 25 percent below the level from five years ago.

While existing home sales continue to struggle, new home sales were up 4.1 percent during the month. This is due mostly to the ability of builders to provide significant incentives for cost-conscious buyers making new homes more attractive. While mortgage rates are expected to fall over the longer-term, helping to ease affordability issues, near term obstacles remain. Uncertainty around the path of future fiscal policy has driven rates higher as the markets await the outcome of the election. That, combined with continued economic expansion, has been the catalyst for the rate movement over the last couple of weeks.

Bonds remain in a state of elevated volatility as the market works through the process of incorporating potential outcomes from the upcoming presidential election. The core of the issue comes down to the nagging question about how much of the Trump trade has been fully priced in; it’s difficult to envision that we are currently at the upper bound for 10-year rates in the event of a Trump victory, especially if it is accompanied by a red sweep that is effectively seen as giving Trump a mandate for his agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, and further deficit spending. An even more bearish move will be offset by the simple clarity provided by the passing of the event risk.

If Trump takes the White House, and the Republicans get both the Senate and the House, it is expected that the perceived pro-business, government bias would limit any fallout from higher nominal rates. Some combination of either a Harris or Trump victory and split Congress could leave investors focused primarily on increased deficit spending without the accompanying pre-business tilt. Such a scenario could bode poorly for bonds. Presumably, a Trump win would be bad for bonds as tariffs would raise prices, and a more pro-business regulatory regime would be better for the economy overall, which will keep the Fed from cutting rates as aggressively. A Trump Presidency would also bring back the debate over what to do with the GSEs.

This week’s release of nonfarm payrolls is an obvious concern as investors attempt to gauge the overall health of the labor market at a moment when idiosyncratic factors (read: Hurricanes Helene and Milton) risk muddying the process of interpreting the realized data. The social, environmental, demographic, and economic damages are still being tallied. The most acute economic impacts are likely to be felt in the near term, as the effects of the storms weigh heavily on the localities most affected. Over the longer run, the potential out-migration of residents, businesses, and investment capital casts a high degree of uncertainty on the timetable for recovery.

It’s less obvious whether this will weigh heavily on the Fed’s November 7th decision given that a 50-basis points rate cut is seemingly off the table. It’s also difficult to envision the FOMC starting the normalization process with a half-point cut only to follow it with a pause. Current pricing in Fed Fund futures markets implies a 95 percent chance that the FOMC will cut rates by a quarter point at the meeting.

This week and next are both event-filled, including data, supply, and central bank decisions, to say nothing of elections. This month-end week’s data highlights, concluding with the October jobs report on Friday, include the first look at Q3 GDP on Wednesday as well as PCE on Thursday. Other data of interest includes house prices, consumer confidence, JOLTS, Challenger job cuts, and manufacturing PMIs after Friday’s payrolls report.

Treasury will auction month-end supply, which is jammed into today (see below) and Tuesday, along with the usual T-bills. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement will be out on Wednesday, where no nominal coupon changes are expected ahead of the election. The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the following week’s decision, while the BoJ will be out with their latest decision on Thursday (Tokyo time), where no change is expected.

Today’s calendar is all about supply with Treasury auctioning $69 billion 2-year notes and $72 billion 6-month bills, followed by $70 billion 5-year notes and $81 billion 3-month bills. The lone data point is Dallas Fed manufacturing for October. Treasury will also announce the financing estimate for the October to December quarter, where $565 billion was expected in the prior estimate assuming a December month-end cash balance of $700 billion. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices slightly worse than Friday’s close and the 10-year yielding 4.26 after rising 16 basis points over the course of the week to close Friday at 4.23 percent; the 2-year is at 4.11.

Halloween was approaching and in a dark and hazy room, peering into a crystal ball, the Mystic delivered grave news:

“There’s no easy way to tell you this, so I’ll just be blunt. Prepare yourself to be a widow. Your husband will die a violent and horrible death this year.”

Visibly shaken, Heather stared at the woman’s lined face, then at the single flickering candle, then down at her hands.

She took a few deep breaths to compose herself… And to stop her mind racing. She simply had to know.

She met the Fortune Teller’s gaze, steadied her voice, and asked,

“And will I be acquitted?”

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current STRATMOR blog is titled, “Help Borrowers Tap Into $36 trillion Available in Home Equity.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.robchrisman.com. Copyright 2024 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)