10.9.24 Stop Monetary Easing; LoanCare's Tim O'Bryant on Servicing; Agency MBS Supply

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, LoanCare. LoanCare has successfully navigated clients and homeowners through market change for 40 years. The mortgage subservicer is known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. Its award-winning portfolio management tool, LoanCare Analytics™, supports MSR investors with a focus on customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk. LoanCare is part of Fidelity National Financial, a Fortune 500 company and leading provider of services to real estate and mortgage industries.

Transcript

Should it concern us that, a few days ago, it was pointed out that from now until Nov. 26, there’s at least one football game on TV to watch every day for the next 55 days? Football has become the center of attention while the focus should be on the recovery efforts happening in many parts of the Southeast, impacting lives and housing stock. Florida is girding its collective loins for Milton, once again bringing up housing and insurance issues. More specifically, the boom & bust cyclical nature of housing there that has existed for decades. Florida has insurance availability problems as well as (now) housing over-supply that get progressively worse with each storm. Institutional (hedge fund) real estate portfolios are now net sellers in Florida over the past 90 days. Many owners must find all-cash buyers because mortgage lenders won’t take the risk associated with these units, but prices have suffered due to owner’s assessments, especially with older units. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by LoanCare. The mortgage subservicer is known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. LoanCare is part of Fidelity National Financial, a Fortune 500 company and leading provider of services to real estate and mortgage industries. Hear an interview with LoanCare’s Tim O’Bryant on technological capabilities to help with recapture efforts.)

Employment & transitions

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Looking for a dynamic career in fintech and real estate? Realfinity, a mortgage startup in embedded lending, is hiring a Mortgage Loan Processor in Miami, FL (on-site). This is your chance to join an innovative team transforming how real estate agents offer mortgage services to clients, streamlining the entire homebuying journey. As a Loan Processor, you’ll manage end-to-end loan applications, collaborate with dual-licensed agents, and ensure a seamless lending process. If you thrive in a fast-paced, high-growth environment and have a passion for delivering exceptional service, this is the opportunity for you. Apply now to be part of a company that's revolutionizing real estate finance! Read more here. Send your confidential application to Elena Cardoza.

MEP, the largest IMB headquartered in Massachusetts, announced the addition of its new CMO, Michelle Orchanian. Mortgage Equity Partners continues to attract great talent like Michelle who brings 20+ years’ mortgage banking marketing experience and a proven track record of driving innovative marketing strategies and loan officer support. “We believe that empowering our loan officers is key to providing exceptional service to our borrowers and referral partners. For more information, contact John Cabral, EVP, National Sales.

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, services, and loan programs

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Costs for income & employment verifications have skyrocketed, ranging from $49 to $123 per request… And if there are two borrowers on the application, that price can easily hit $492. Just a few years ago, verifications were around $20, so the increase is being felt across the industry. But there's good news! Josh Byrom, SVP Technology & Innovation, Prosperity Home Mortgage, shares his experience working with Truv, a vendor partner that has helped reduce verification costs by as high as 90%. Hear Josh share his experience working with Truv here.

Ask yourself this question: when evaluating the current market value of a subject property, are you using the best AVM on the market? We understand that when making critical business decisions, accuracy, and details matter. That’s why we’re highlighting First American Data & Analytics and its Procision AVM to have your back. Their Procision AVM updates and tests every residential property in the United States and updates the models' underlying data on a daily basis. And the best part? Their AVM is designed for your specific business need, so you get the best results and highest satisfaction. But don’t just take our word for it: its data speaks for itself. As a nationwide, single-source data provider, First American Data & Analytics will fuel your biggest ideas so you can focus on growing your bottom line. Learn more about its Procision AVM and receive a free data sample.

Success in correspondent lending depends on the right set of tools to build a stronger, leaner business. A feature-rich set of products and solutions, backed by expert advice can give you a competitive edge. One proven resource is Western Alliance Bank’s Specialized Mortgage Services Group paired with the resources of AmeriHome Mortgage, the nation’s largest bank-owned correspondent investor* and a wholly owned subsidiary of Western Alliance. With a 15-year track record and a focus on long-term relationships, this team offers a wide range of customized mortgage warehouse loans, with preferential terms for loans purchased by AmeriHome. Access delegated and non-delegated underwriting options, a cutting-edge correspondent acquisition platform and a self-service portal for efficient cash management. To learn more about this team’s superior service and creative solutions (combined with competitive terms) contact the Western Alliance team or the AmeriHome sales team. Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC. *According to Inside Mortgage Finance, 9/13/2024.

“Having and choosing the right drill bit can be the difference between a smooth project and a frustrating trip to the hardware store. Whether it's a Phillips head or a flathead, each drill bit is designed to fit with the drill, and using the correct one makes everything run more efficiently. The same holds true for your LOS: having the right tool for the task can streamline your business and boost productivity. At Dark Matter Technologies, we offer two distinct and powerful LOS platforms, each designed for specific needs. Empower LOS is built for enterprise and mid-tier lenders seeking transformative automation and a large library of APIs with the flexibility to scale with market changes. NOVA LOS, on the other hand, is a cost-effective, streamlined solution ideal for small to mid-sized banks, credit unions, and IMBs, allowing them to operate efficiently without needing a full-time LOS administrator. Both platforms, though separate, are now aligned under the Dark Matter brand, providing you the specialized tools your business needs to thrive. Visit booth #609 at MBA Annual to learn more and discover how choosing the right LOS can elevate your operations.”

Visio Lending and STRATMOR Group present “Use DSCR Loans to Earn $150k Per Client: The Broker Playbook for Growing Repeat & Referral Business.” Join Visio CEO Jeff Ball and STRATMOR Director of Customer Experience Mike Seminari for an invaluable webinar on using customer success principles to grow your DSCR broker business. Register here for the webinar on Tuesday, October 22nd, at 3 PM CST.

Seeing an uptick in early-stage delinquencies? Early default intervention is a crucial step in offsetting the effects of payment defaults. With the number of different outreach methods used during the early default intervention process, it's essential to remain compliant with regulatory requirements when it comes to communication frequency and content. Clayton Servicing Oversight provides a full suite of services to help servicers ensure compliance in day-to-day servicing activities on defaulted loans. Learn more about Clayton’s experienced Servicing Oversight team and how it helps servicers and subservicers measure their performance, validate regulatory and investor compliance, and identify loan- and portfolio-level risk.

Production Managers, we’re talking to YOU! With this upcoming market shift, you’re probably wondering, “How can I get all my originators working more like my top producers?” You’ve been looking for the holy grail: habit replication. Usherpa has been researching habits of highly successful Loan Officers for 30 years. They’ve helped literally thousands of LOs increase production using habit replication, through every conceivable market condition! How? Using data analytics and AI-powered alerts (and lengthy history in the industry), Usherpa identified the most powerful habits of successful producers. Leveraging those trends coupled with Usherpa’s Pipeline technology and commitment to customized training, you can ensure your team is primed to operate like the big hitters. Make your life a little bit easier and give your LOs the tools to duplicate top producers’ habits, learn how here. While you’re at it download the Usherpa eGuide “3 Habits of Top Producing Loan Officers (You Can Duplicate).”

Are income calculation errors and missing documentation putting your loans at risk? Mitigate them with Xactus’ verification tools. Its Employment VerificationX and Income VerificationX solutions feature direct integrations with leading databases, allowing for a customizable workflow that can cascade. And, if employment can’t be verified, a manual verification can be performed. You can also validate a consumer’s assets, deposits, and account activity from their financial institution(s) with Asset VerificationX. Learn more about how to combat common loan defects in Denver at the MBA Annual. Stop by Xactus’ booth #300 or schedule a meeting here. And don’t miss Xactus President @Shelley Leonard moderating an expert panel on 10/28 at 3:00 PM, “Tips to Prepare and Adapt to New Credit Scoring Models.” Also check out Xactus’ demo at the Tech Showcase on Monday 10/28 at approximately 3:35 PM! 

Webinars and in-person events roll on toward Halloween

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A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for today’s 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Today, Justin Demola, Robbie Chrisman, and Rob Chrisman will be joined by industry vet Brian Hale with a focus on capital markets issues.

Tomorrow will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for Thursday’s 3 PM ET show. Tomorrow features Eric Lapin, the President of FormFree, an industry best-in-class provider of automated solutions that streamline the loan application process.

Friday the 11th listen in to opinions (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET) from Kevin Peranio and Brian Vieaux! Register here.

End this week with The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown with Melissa Langdale covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET. This week’s guests are Michael Jones (UFCU) and Jodi Hall (Danda Road)!

Register for Santander CIB US Economic Update in an Election Season, Tuesday, October 15th at 10:00 am EST. Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander US Capital Markets, LLC (SanCap), will be discussing the outlook for the economy and for Fed policy amid the uncertainty of election season. The call with be moderated by Victoria Clarke, Santander Corporate and Investment Bank’s UK Chief Economist.

Join OMBA for Economic Forecast Series featuring Doug Duncan, Tuesday, October 15th at 2 p.m. ET. In this 30-minute session, Doug will provide an insightful forecast for the housing market, covering key topics such as: the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and their impact, home sales updates, construction trends, home price forecasts, consumer behavior versus reality, and the latest on inflation.

Ginnie Mae and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) will host the Mortgage Market Resilience and Access to Credit Summit on Tuesday, October 15, at HUD headquarters. This event explores the intersection between liquidity for mortgage lenders, servicers, and mortgage-backed securities Issuers and the preservation of borrowers’ access to affordable credit throughout the economic cycle. This hybrid summit brings together leaders from the Federal Government, private sector, and housing industry to discuss the critical role of independent mortgage banks in the housing finance ecosystem. 

Join NAMB and Freddie Mac on Wednesday, October 16, from 2pm - 3:30pm ET for Condominium Project Eligibility. Learn more about the Condominium Project Review and General Project Eligibility requirements as we navigate through the four different project review types, ineligible projects, and those exempt from review.

Join the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association's October education webinar, Economic Insights: A Panel Discussion on the Future of Mortgage Lending, Thursday, October. 17th, 11:30 am - 12:30 pm. This insightful session will feature expert economists who will provide an in-depth economic update, including forecasting and commentary on the current and future

state of mortgage lending.

Join MaryKay Scully for an interactive course and test your knowledge of self-employed borrower tax returns. Register for MMLA West Chapter Zoom Webinar with Enact on

Tuesday, October 22, 9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.

Join CAMP for Broker Round Table with Eric Garcia, October 24, at 11:00 AM. 

Capital markets: quiet, with a potential grim realization

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Secondary product managers, listen up: Down Payment Resource understands the 9-1-1 you face daily when asked about DPA programs. The scramble to collect information, contact agencies to check accuracy, and weigh risks and feasibility, while your LOs and homebuyers wait for the all-clear. Now close your eyes and imagine simply typing the program name to view everything you need to know for approval/denial…and being able to search proactively for similar programs. This sanity-saver is real and possible with the DPA Directory, an instant connection to DPR’s database of all 2,400+ homeownership programs covering the entire United States. And if your LOs are using Encompass® LOS, even better: with DPR’s Encompass integration they can search for programs you’ve approved on their own. See us at MBA Annual24 in Denver or grab a spot on DPR’s VP Sales and Business Development Brad Cardwell’s calendar for a demo.

In terms of mortgage rate trends, Fed rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened. Why? Investors are viewing the Fed's path of future rate moves as more uncertain, a pivot that started even before the September move. Stocks have mostly rallied, an indication that investors feel good about the economy and are pricing in less easing going forward. Sure enough, last Friday’s solid jobs report showed a surprise decrease in the unemployment rate and very strong nonfarm-payroll additions.

Now some economic “commentators” are saying rate cuts could be done for the year, an outcome that would fail to deliver on long-held expectations of extended easing, and one that would likely mean limited future declines in mortgage rates. But sticky mortgage rates are helping to keep home sales low, and people are staying put in their homes and not putting them on the market. We continue to watch the data.

It was a quiet day in the bond markets yesterday as investors looked ahead to tomorrow’s September Consumer Price Index data, which should provide clues on the Fed’s next move. Chatter out there is that despite September’s strong jobs report, Fed officials still see current monetary policy as “well positioned.” Post-payrolls, as noted above, investors have walked back bets on the Fed cutting rates aggressively into year end, yet another recalibration for those who had been setting up for slowing growth, benign inflation, and aggressive rate cuts. Looks like it’s time to sell some of those rate-sensitive short-term U.S. notes!

We learned yesterday that small businesses owners remain fairly downbeat on the economy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism index rose 0.3 points to 91.5 in September. Although the outlook for business conditions has improved significantly over the past few months, so too has economic uncertainty. In addition to next month's election, a number of economic factors are also playing a role. On the bright side, labor market concerns have stalled while respondents also remain consistent with downward-trending inflation.

The U.S. Treasury kicked off this week's note and bond auction slate with a weak sale of 3-year notes, but the poor reception did not have much of an effect on market pricing. Today’s economic calendar began with the MBA telling us that mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier. The drop was expected, as mortgage rates have ticked back up over the past couple of weeks. Fortunately, we should continue to see more Agency MBS supply hit the market as rates sit well below last year’s levels. The month of August ($109.8 billion) delivered the highest level of Agency MBS gross issuance since September 2022, largely due to the rising number of refinances. Yes, much of the universe remains deeply “out of the money,” but recently produced higher coupon mortgages are, and will be, highly reactive to lower rates, leading to higher prepayment speeds and gross supply.

Later today brings Wholesale inventories and sales for August, Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $39 billion reopened 10-year notes and a buyback in 5- to 7-year coupons for up to $4 billion, and the minutes of the September 17/18 FOMC meeting. There is also a heavy dose of Fed speakers: Atlanta’s Bostic, Dallas’ Logan, Chicago’s Goolsbee, Richmond’s Barkin, Vice Chair Jefferson, Boston’s Collins, and San Francisco’s Daly. So much for a veil of secrecy. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Tuesday’s close , the 2-year at 3.97, and the 10-year yielding 4.04 after closing yesterday at 4.03 percent.

When people see a cat's litter box they always say, "Oh, have you got a cat" I just say, "No, it's for company!"

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current blog is titled, “Lenders and Vendors Must Pay to Play.” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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