10.4.24 Uncertainty Abounds; Anna DeSimone on Hidden Biases; Robust Payrolls

Today's podcast is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a Warranty, eliminating repurchase worries.

Transcript

As Maui grapples with rebuilding, and parts of the Southeast deal with continued rescue or recovery issues, where would our lives be without some levity? Rich Swerbinsky, Founder of Onward and Upward Consulting, has updated his “40 Greatest Names in the Mortgage Industry list.” (Contributions or comments should be addressed to him, not me.) Speaking of names, “Springfield” has certainly been in the news lately, but that Ohio city’s name is only one of the most popular. Top place names in the U.S. include Franklin, Springfield, Washington, Clinton, and Arlington. If you’d like to find a top rated charity in the United States, one where most of your contribution goes toward victims of a disaster instead of salaries and overhead, here you go. In terms of top rated survival real estate listings, there’s something for everybody out there! For example, “Find your secure and sustainable home. The leading marketplace for rural, remote, and off-grid properties worldwide.” (If you think that you have trouble with your basement flooding, try owning a place 50 feet underground. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a Warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with author Anna DeSimone on hidden biases in mortgage lending and how consumers can properly vet financial institutions.)

Employers helping others

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Movement Steps Up for Communities Impacted by Hurricane Helene! Movement Mortgage exists to love and value people… we’re a force for good in times of need. In response to the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene across the Southeast, Movement is mobilizing its resources and partners to bring relief to affected communities. Through partnerships with Convoy of Hope and Samaritan’s Purse, Movement is helping to deliver critical supplies like food, clean water, and hygiene kits to families in need. Convoy of Hope, a long-time Movement partner, has already dispatched trucks loaded with emergency supplies, and Samaritan’s Purse is deploying volunteers to assist with home repairs and disaster recovery. Movement’s commitment to the community goes beyond immediate relief. The Movement Foundation is matching every dollar donated by employees to multiply the impact. Whether it's rebuilding homes or providing essential care, Movement is dedicated to making a lasting difference long after the storm has passed. This is just one example of how Movement lives out its mission, even in the hardest of times. We’re not just a mortgage company… We’re a company with heart, committed to creating positive change in the communities we serve.

Evergreen Home Loans is excited to announce that Evergreen Cares Foundation has donated $25,000 to the MBA Opens Doors Foundation. At Evergreen, we care deeply about supporting families in times of need. Our contribution will help families with critically ill or injured children, providing them with much-needed mortgage and rental assistance. The Evergreen Cares Foundation is committed to making a meaningful impact, allowing parents to focus on their child's recovery without the additional worry of housing costs. Supporting families during their toughest moments is at the heart of what we do, and we are proud to be part of this mission. If you’re looking to join a company that values giving back and making an impact, consider starting your career with Evergreen Home Loans. Visit our careers page to explore opportunities!

Fairway Independent is putting up $1 million dollars towards the much-needed relief efforts due to Hurricane Helene. CEO Steve Jacobson shot out a note. “That is barely enough. We are challenging all of the main IMBs and the major wholesale lenders to do the same. Why not? If we are really all here to help and serve others, why not come together when it is needed, and collectively support a region that is in desperate need? Our industry has a responsibility to help when needed.”

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, services, and loan programs

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“Join us in Denver at #MBA2024 and meet the Accenture teams helping originators and services navigate the challenges and realize the full value of digital banking operations. Our team of mortgage experts will be on hand to demonstrate how we leverage innovative strategies and digital technology to create more efficient, competitive, and profitable mortgage operations. At Accenture, we help independent and bank-owned lenders embrace modern sales and marketing capabilities, streamline loan origination and fulfillment processes, and enhance servicing and default management with cutting-edge technology. Our comprehensive solutions ensure greater efficiency, agility, and speed, enabling you to meet the evolving expectations of borrowers and regulators. Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your mortgage operations. Contact Audra Agen to schedule a meeting with the Accenture team and take the first step towards future-ready mortgages. We look forward to connecting with you and helping you drive your business forward.”

Commercial Lending is experiencing hyper growth due to $1.5 trillion in ballooning loans over the next 3-5 years. There is a shortage of commercial mortgage brokers, and with banks liquidity issues, a perfect storm is brewing for the secondary market that will create massive deal flow. Chris Perez, Envestion Commercial Lending, a 25-year veteran, is offering a broker partnership, turnkey with training, custom web site, tools, and marketing / leads. He is looking for 5-10 brokers per state where they are given the marketing and leads, take the application, and then turn the commercial loan over for processing, underwriting, and closing, all while continuing to do your normal residential business. Schedule an appointment today to see if you qualify or join the free weekly seminar every Wednesday 1PM EST. Adding commercial to your book of business is a way to expand your current product line while substantially increasing revenue.

It’s the end of the month, and there is no doubt you should have closed more loans. Mortgage Call Centers and direct-to-consumer lenders can achieve a new level of efficiency and increased conversions with AI Call Assistant. From listening to one call, AI Call Assistant can predict whether a prospect will close with an 89.4% accuracy. Reduce unqualified inquiries by 21% and stop wasting time on garbage leads. AI Call Assistant works with any CRM. Learn how AI Call Assistant can improve your business and schedule a demo today!

Realfinity is revolutionizing loan origination and processing for entrepreneurs. Its technology & processing platform supports real estate agents in offering mortgage services, assists businesses in creating their mortgage arm, and enables loan originators to establish their own independent brokerages. Embrace the shift towards independence to get the most competitive pricing directly from wholesale lenders with no overlays due to corporate expenses. For details, contact Luca Dahlhausen.

Conferences and one-time webinars moving through October

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MBAC’s 68th Annual Convention is October 6-8 at the Embassy Suites in Myrtle Beach, SC. It is always worthwhile!

Meet builders and developers at Zonda’s Future Place Conference, October 9-11 at the Ritz-Carlton Resort, Las Colinas in Irving, TX. Explore the future of master planned communities and gain expert insight on how global economic dynamics, the evolving workplace, and leading-edge innovations will reshape the places of tomorrow.

The CFPB will be hosting an event to provide a first look at the CFPB’s Nonbank Registry. Attendees may register for the Wednesday, October 9 event. It will be virtual-only discussions targeting compliance staff that will be registering covered orders with the CFPB’s Nonbank Registry. At the event, the CFPB’s Nonbank Registry team will provide a demonstration of first-time company registration, give a tour of the features of the registry, and take technical questions.

October 9th sees the Florida Association of Mortgage Professionals host the Mortgage Professionals Expo at the Hilton in Palm Beach. Please come by and say hi!

Ginnie Mae and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) will host the Mortgage Market Resilience and Access to Credit Summit on Tuesday, October 15, from 8:30 a.m. to 1:35 p.m. in Washington, D.C. This event explores the intersection between liquidity for mortgage lenders, servicers, and mortgage-backed securities Issuers and the preservation of borrowers’ access to affordable credit throughout the economic cycle. This hybrid summit at HUD headquarters brings together leaders from the Federal Government, private sector, and housing industry to discuss the critical role of independent mortgage banks in the housing finance ecosystem.

Ginnie Mae, in partnership with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), will hold a strategic summit on Mortgage Market Resilience and Access to Credit in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, October 15. The event held at HUD headquarters will convene leaders from across the Federal Government, the private sector, and the housing industry to address the intersection of mortgage finance liquidity and access to affordable credit. This hybrid event is open to industry participants, with in-person and virtual attendance options available. Register to secure your spot today. 

Join RegCheck by Asurity and Hudson Cook LLP for a live webinar on October 15 from 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET - Navigating the Evolving Mortgage Landscape: Key CFPB Developments and Other Regulatory Updates. During the webinar you’ll hear from industry thought leaders as they provide key insights into recent developments from the CFPB and other regulatory agencies. Reserve your spot today! 

Join MBA Jacksonville, in Jacksonville, FL, on October 16th for the Real Estate Reframe. Kevin Waugaman, the founder of Momentors, LLC, works with leaders, salespeople, and professionals to help them launch to new levels in their careers, all while achieving better quality of life, better relationships, and financial success. This session will blend strategic insights with practical tactics, ensuring that each participant leaves with actionable steps that can drive impactful results. Register online here.

And here’s a Southwest Florida Event: Save the date for the MBA of Southwest Florida for Breakfast and an Educational Seminar on Thursday, October 17th from 8:30am-10am. We’ll hear more about economic predictions from Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Doug Duncan. RSVP online at www.MBASWF.org.

Join NAMB and Freddie Mac on Wednesday, October 16, 2024 from 2pm - 3:30pm ET for Condominium Project Eligibility. Learn more about the Condominium Project Review and General Project Eligibility requirements as we navigate through the four different project review types, ineligible projects, and those exempt from review.

Join MaryKay Scully for an interactive course and test your knowledge of self-employed borrower tax returns. Register for MMLA West Chapter Zoom Webinar with Enact on

Tuesday, October 22, 9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.

Join CAMP for Broker Round Table with Eric Garcia, October 24, 2024 at 11:00 AM. 

The MBA’s very own annual National Convention and Expo (“MBA Annual”) will be in Denver this year from October 27-30.

National MI offers its upcoming October 2024 webinar sessions. As does MGIC, Essent, Arch, Radian, and Enact.

New flood insurance training modules help ensure that lenders and servicers are well-versed in key requirements for one- to four-unit properties and project developments (PUDs, condominiums, and co-ops). Topics include determining if a property requires flood insurance, reviewing evidence of flood insurance, understanding coverage amount requirements for the above property types, and more. Visit Fannie Mae Learning Center for Insurance Training modules.

Capital markets: dock strike suspended, so stop stockpiling

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U.S. dockworkers and port operators reached an agreement yesterday that would implement a 62 percent wage increase over six years, ending one of the biggest American work stoppages in decades. Dockworkers will resume unloading of container ships immediately and both parties agreed to revisit the deal in January 2025, with some key issues, such as the threat of automation to job security, left unresolved. Don’t we want automation that helps them, and keeps our costs lower? But we all know how that works…

Thursday was a day of uncertainty in the bond markets, as traders weighed the prospect of an escalating conflict in the Middle East and awaited today’s September unemployment numbers. Economic data released on the day showed the ISM Services PMI increasing to 54.9 percent in September, beating expectations to register the highest reading since February 2023 as services sector activity accelerated from August. Factory orders decreased 0.2 percent month-over-month in August following a downwardly revised 4.9 percent increase in July as business spending rebounded in August.

Mortgage rates ticked up in the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, though still remain well over 100-basis points lower from a year ago and even more from last October’s peak. For the week ending October 3, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates rising 4-basis points and 9-basis points versus the prior week to 6.12 percent and 5.25 percent. From a year ago, those respective rates are 137-basis points and 153-basis points lower.

The key to avoiding a recession lies in how the labor market unfolds. With that being said, this first Friday of the month brought the September employment situation report. Nonfarm payrolls clocked in at 254k, the headline unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, and hourly earnings were +.4 percent. Nonfarm payrolls were expected at +135k and 142k previously, and the unemployment rate was seen unchanged at 4.2 percent. Today’s lone Fed speaker is New York’s Williams. We begin post-payrolls Friday with Agency MBS prices worse .5-.75 from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.85, and the 10-year yielding 3.95 after closing yesterday at 3.85 percent. The strong labor market is alive and well.

Strangers in the airport weary from traveling are like batteries: You can instantly tell how much energy they have left by licking them.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.robchrisman.com. Copyright 2024 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)