8.30.24 Home Sales Declining; Lawn Love’s Kimberly Magerl on Rent Prices; Fed Favorite PCE

Thank you to EarnUp and its new AI Advisor tool. The industry’s first-ever context-aware conversation agent instantly analyzes users’ real-time banking and credit data to answer complex financial questions and provide tailored product recommendations. 

Transcript

(In honor of labor, there is no Commentary tomorrow; Tuesday will be the next one. But in honor of August 31 being National Bacon Day, we celebrate with a bacon joke below.) College football is back in the news, with its assortment of personalities. Lots of us are on the road this weekend, bunking down at Motel 6 and Econo Lodge. At the other end of the spectrum, they “have’s” are also bunking down: The number of U.S. hotels with an average daily rate of $1,000 for a room hit 80 (WSJ subscription needed) as of the first half of this year, up from just 22 such hotels in 2019. In Europe, the number of $1,000-a-night hotels tripled over the same period, to 183 establishments. On Monday, millions of Americans will joyfully stay home, hearing news about politicians saying how they love the common man, fire up a grill, or head to the beach… traditions enshrined, indirectly, in 1894, when Congress made Labor Day a national holiday. For many, the day is now so deeply entwined with leisure, pleasure, and department-store sales that it’s easy to forget its origins in the labor movement. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by EarnUp and its new AI Advisor tool. The industry’s first-ever context-aware conversation agent instantly analyzes users’ real-time banking and credit data to answer complex financial questions and provide tailored product recommendations. Hear an interview with Lawn Love’s Kimberly Magerl discussing a survey about 2024’s most expensive metropolitan areas for renters.)

Lender and broker software, services, and loan programs

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Champions Funding is experiencing explosive growth with a 460% increase in fundings year over year and is on track to outperform last month's production. The team is making meaningful progress by investing in people and core technology that make the broker experience as smooth and predictable as possible. The flagship loan program, Ally, serves a greater population of borrowers as a CDFI-certified, No Ratio solution for O/O and 2nd homes where income and employment verifications are not required. The expansive growth is also credited to an expansive suite of Non-QM products including DSCR No Ratio, ITIN, and Alt-Doc loan options with a generous exception process and a dedicated Scenarios team of Senior-level advisors for support. To find out more, reach out to your Champs Account Executive or visit here.

“Join ActiveComply’s webinar series: Compliance & Coffee, where top industry experts break down the latest mortgage compliance trends over your favorite brew. Each session delivers valuable insights into regulatory updates, best practices, and strategies to navigate the complex mortgage landscape. Whether you're a compliance professional or industry enthusiast, our webinars offer the perfect blend of knowledge and practical advice, ensuring you stay ahead in this ever-evolving field. Don’t miss out: grab your coffee, connect with peers, and enhance your compliance expertise with us. Join in on September 4th, at 2pm ET to hear from industry expert Brian Levy, author of the famous Mortgage Musings, on all things RESPA RESPA RESPA! Register now to secure your spot.”

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LoanStream wants you to RULE YOUR PIPELINE! Close More and Close Faster with The Lounge TPO submission portal, open 24/7. Outpace the competition with live portal support during submission and amplify your sales teams with program and portal training! The Lounge has unrivaled technology to upload, register, price/lock, submit and disclose in minutes!  Run and download AUS results (DU/LP or both) to determine client eligibility. Plus, unlock new scenarios with a variety of loan programs from LoanStream Mortgage including Non-QM and 100% CLTV DPA programs exclusive to Approved Brokers! LoanStream delivers unlimited possibilities for programs, unparallel service, competitive pricing, and innovative technology. We’ve got you covered! Ready to elevate your business? Get Approved: Get Approved LoanStream Wholesale - Wholesale Mortgage Lending.

We’re all focused on “likely rate cuts” from the Fed… It’s been a long haul for everyone in our industry. While the refi market shows promise, it’s vital to stormproof your business for any future market. One key factor? Don’t put a pause on growing Realtor relationships. With new Realtor commission structures, it’s more crucial than ever to emphasize your commitment to providing value. Usherpa equips you with the tools to stay ahead: automated marketing campaigns, co-brandable Local Housing videos with monthly stats for 100 major metros, business-building alerts, and lead-generating property flyers and microsites. Maximize visibility and strengthen your referral network by utilizing Usherpa’s SmartCRM to maintain strong relationships as the market shifts, ensuring your success in any environment. Schedule a demo today!

Compass Mortgage Finds a Better Way to Save 60-80% on Verifications. “In our first year with Truv we saved 60-80% on verifications. Cost savings are both obvious and significant from day one.” - Justin Venhousen. See Truv in action.

NAR developments: Don’t practice law without a license

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Attorney Brian Levy dropped another of his Mortgage Musings on the industry confirming my prediction on the NAR settlement implementation date of August 17 that the sun would come out tomorrow. And, I’ll be damned (see footnote #1), Levy also reminded lenders not to practice law without a license. You heard all of that here first, but Levy has a way with the written word where sometimes more is better. Sign up at www.mortgagemusings.com if you would like to get an email whenever Levy puts out a new Musing.

Voices from around the industry

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Have you heard about (read: registered for) some of our expanded media offerings? Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET, presented by BILT Rewards), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), regulation and compliance (Regulation Central third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital markets: inflation numbers continue to improve

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Demand in the U.S. economy is holding up under the weight of higher borrowing costs, just fine, thank you. Aside from today's PCE inflation data and income/spending report, yesterday’s economic calendar packed the most market-moving potential this week. Bond prices dipped and yields rose slightly in response to a slight decrease in weekly jobless claims (to 231k from 233k, well below levels typically associated with an economy in recession) and an unexpected upward revision to Q2 GDP (to 3.0 percent from 2.8 percent) on the back of an upward revision to consumer spending. Housing was a drag on growth, but the economy doesn’t appear to be falling off a cliff, as some have postulated in recent weeks.

Other economic releases included pending home sales falling 5.5 percent in July. Month over month, contract signings declined in all four U.S. regions. Compared to one year ago, pending home sales increased in the Northeast but decreased in the Midwest, South and West. Separately, Advance Retail Inventories were up 0.8 percent in July after increasing a revised 0.9 percent in June, while Advance Wholesale Inventories were up 0.3 percent in July after increasing a revised 0.1 percent in June. The U.S. Treasury concluded this week's mediocre note auction slate with a soft 7-year note sale. And in “Fed speak” land, Atlanta President Bostic said it “may be time” to cut interest rates, but he’s still looking for more data. “I don’t want us to be in a situation where we cut and then we have to raise rates again,” he said.

If you don’t like numbers or basis points, skip this paragraph. Mortgage rates hit fresh year-to-date lows, and the lowest levels since May 2023 for the 30-year rate according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. For the week ending August 29, the 30- and 15-year mortgage rates both declined 11 basis points, to 6.35 percent and 5.51 percent, respectively. The rates are now 83 basis points and 104 basis points lower than a year ago and 144 basis points and 152 basis points lower than the highs of this market cycle. It’s certainly welcome news for those hoping for an uptick in refinances. And possibly for the Fed, as mortgages locked in at low costs provided U.S. consumers with an extra $600 billion in spending cash since 2022, blunting the impact of the Fed’s interest-rate hikes.

Personal income and spending (income was +.3 percent and spending was +.5 percent) and Fed-favorite PCE inflation (+.2 percent for the month and +2.6 percent annualized) for July kicked off today’s month-end session ahead of the long weekend. Income and spending were expected to increase 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent month-over-month, respectively, the same as June. The Core PCE Price Index was expected to increase 2.5 percent year-over-year, remaining the same on the headline and register a lower number (2.7 percent) on the core rate. Inflation was faster in the first half than the second half of 2023, so even if monthly price increases run cool in the second half of this year, inflation will probably hold steady in year-over-year terms. Later today brings Chicago PMI for August, and final August Michigan sentiment. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices little changed from Thursday’s close, the 10-year yielding 3.85 after closing yesterday at 3.87 percent, and the 2-year is at 3.90.

A priest and a rabbi are on a flight headed to an interfaith conference. It's a long flight out so they start talking. After a few hours, the priest leans over to the rabbi and says, "So... you can be honest with me, have you ever eaten bacon?"

The rabbi is hesitant to answer at first, but glances around and eventually relents. "Yes... when I was younger, I had a bacon sandwich."

They share a laugh, and the rabbi leans over to the priest, "So, now I've confessed, tell me. You um... ever... with a woman?"

The priest is, reasonably reluctant, but eventually he admits, "So, once when I first joined the priesthood, there was a young lady, very flirtatious, in my parish and one night she came in for a confession, we started talking and... well... yeah."

The rabbi nods his head and says, "Hell of a lot better than bacon, isn't it?"

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current blog is titled, “Hiring: Do You Remember How to Do That?” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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