7.26.24 GDP's Macro Contribution; NJ Lenders' Steve Grossman on Sales Growth; Fed Favorite PCE

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, LoanCare. LoanCare has successfully navigated clients and homeowners through market change for 40 years. The mortgage subservicer is known for delivering superior customer experience through personalization and convenience. Its award-winning portfolio management tool, LoanCare Analytics™, supports MSR investors with a focus on customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk. LoanCare is part of Fidelity National Financial, a Fortune 500 company and leading provider of services to real estate and mortgage industries.

Transcript

The only thing constant is change. After 53 years, Southwest Airlines is ending its 100 percent open seating policy! (I don’t mind lining up.) People and companies have to adjust… Time waits for no one. What were concerts like in 1964, 60 years ago? Here’s an interesting chart that shows where the U.S. Government pegged interest rates through history, including 1964. (In the 4’s.) While we’re on interest rates, many clamor for lower rates, whether that means 6 or 5 or 4 percent is unclear. There’s a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee lowering the fed funds target rates in September when the Fed meets. But lenders know that an interest rate cut might not translate into immediately lower mortgage rates. Ask your capital markets staff: The bond market is already pricing in rate cuts, so the simple act of the Fed cutting is not necessarily going to have a direct impact on mortgage rates. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by LoanCare, known for delivering superior customer experience as a mortgage subservicer through personalization and convenience, and supporting MSR investors with a focus on customer engagement, liquidity, and credit risk. Hear an interview with NJ Lenders’ Steve Grossman on coaching his sales staff to get the best out of them.)

Employment

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Evergreen Home Loans™ proudly highlights our One-Time Close Construction Loan, a standout option for those looking to simplify the home-building process. This loan merges interim construction financing and permanent mortgage into a single closing, ensuring a seamless and efficient experience for our clients. Our One-Time Close Construction Loan offers several key benefits. It streamlines the process by eliminating the need for multiple loan applications and approvals. Clients can lock in their interest rate upfront, providing financial stability throughout the construction phase. Additionally, it reduces closing costs and paperwork, making it an attractive choice for homebuilders. At Evergreen, we are dedicated to providing innovative solutions that cater to our clients’ needs. Explore current career opportunities on our website under Careers and join a team that values convenience, efficiency, and exceptional service.

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking to create lasting Realtor and builder relationships at a bank focused on the market today. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision making with FHA, VA, USDA, state bond and true Portfolio lending opportunities along with servicing retained Fannie and Freddie loans to assist in client retention. Additional highlighted products cover CRA lending with private label no payment down payment assistance to help assist all borrowers with the right opportunity. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

“Loan officers! Discover the radius advantage. Are you navigating a market that's forgotten the value of loyalty? At radius financial group, we're rewriting the script with our MLO Partnership-Proposition (MPP). We understand the industry's pulse and the need for a genuine partnership—not just a platform to process loans. As lenders focus on consumers, we concentrate on you, the heartbeat of our business. You're not just a number here; you're the face of our brand, co-branded for success. We're committed to investing in you, providing a stable home where your talents are nurtured and your book of business flourishes. For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera (781-742-6500).

(As a reminder, anyone searching for employment can post their resume at no charge at www.lendernews.com, and potential employers can view all resumes for several months for only $75.)

Lender and broker software, products, and services

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Deephaven Mortgage is excited to announce that it is hosting its own non-QM event, Non-QM Power Pulse, along with Anchor Loans on September 18th 8:30 am to 12:30 pm in Hollywood Beach, Florida! Deephaven is committed to support, educate and deliver resources to the entire real estate community. Chief Sales Officer at Deephaven Tom Davis, Managing Director of National Accounts at Deephaven Tyler Bohn and VP of Business Development at Anchor Loans Dave Gray join other industry experts to deliver educational panels focused on helping you increase your volume. In one day, you will gain the power to: Stay ahead of the competition, increase your volume and referral base, network with top Realtors, investors, and loan originators! You will also learn how to promote Ground Up Construction and Fix and Flip programs to investors. Register now and join us so that you can offer a full suite of investor loans for your clients to build their portfolios and differentiate yourself in the market. Register Now!

“Embrace a New Era of Excellence with AFR! We're igniting enhanced speed, efficiency, and service excellence! Our commitment to enhancing your experience has never been stronger, with key improvements designed to redefine efficiency and service quality. We've meticulously streamlined our processes to deliver quicker turn times and reduce conditions, ensuring a seamless journey from application to closing. Behind these enhancements lies an expanded team and bolstered resources, poised to accelerate your path to success. Whether you're a first-time partner or a long-standing client, we invite you to experience the benefits of our significantly improved pricing options across all scenarios. Take the leap with AFR and discover that every interaction embodies our dedication to exceeding your expectations. Ready to explore a brighter future? Partner Today or Contact Us, call 1-800-375-6071, or visit here to learn more about how AFR can elevate your experience today. (NMLS 2826)”

Human minds wander for many reasons, with lack of stimulation leading the list. Our brains just don't respond well to repetitive tasks, and soon we’re thinking about our weekend plans or picking up groceries on the way home. Enter AIVA, the well-disciplined and fully trained office assistant who’s never tired, never bored, and is willing to work 24/7 to help you be more profitable. AIVA (pronounced “Ava”) Virtual Assistants from Dark Matter Technologies use the latest cognitive and AI technology and draw from Dark Matter’s many years in automating mortgage processes to provide lenders with a digital workforce capable of relieving your staff from mundane stare-and-compare tasks, working at speeds and accuracy levels that far surpass human abilities, so your staff can focus on exceptions, problem-solving and building relationships. Learn more about AIVA today.

“Here at Newrez Correspondent, our main mission and goal is to support our customers. We were recently ranked the #3 Correspondent Lender in the country in the Scotsman Guide® Top Mortgage Lenders for 2024. This can only be achieved by having incredible customers who trust in the value we bring each and every day. In striving to improve our client offerings, we recently launched our co-issue platform, enhanced our closed-end second mortgage program, and added eNote delivery for a significant number of clients. We have an array of products and pricing options to meet every customer’s needs, so if you aren’t a partner today or offering these programs please contact us here. You can also meet Chris Nobile at the Michigan Mortgage Lenders Association August 14-16 or Rebecca Sommer, David Pistone, and Baird Marble at the Western Secondary Conference August 19-21. #TheTimeIsNow”

Down Payment Resource, the hub of everything down payment assistance (DPA), has exciting news to share. The company’s just released Q2 2024 Homeownership Program Index (HPI) report reveals there are now over 2,400 DPA programs, more than ever before. DPR has been tracking DPA programs since 2008 and maintains an impressive database of every program in the nation. But what’s truly amazing is DPR’s Lender Suite, which makes it easy to operationalize DPA with support for LOs, underwriters, product managers and capital markets. DPR helps you generate leads by inviting borrowers to discover their DPA eligibility, matches borrowers with eligible programs, provides underwriters with program requirements and guidelines, and makes it easy for your product/secondary team to identify programs that align with your market and secondary strategy. Schedule a demo today to learn more.

In-person events, training, and webinars through next week

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A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future.

Today tune in to The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown with Melissa Langdale covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET. Today we are fortunate to hear from the credit union segment with Christy Soukhamneut, Chief Lending Officer at UFCU, Austin’s largest locally owned financial institution.

Last Word, Fridays at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET: Fridays with Kevin Peranio and Brian Vieaux is your ultimate destination for incisive analysis and spirited discussions on the hottest topics affecting the mortgage sector each week. Hosted by industry veterans, the show delivers expert opinions, forecasts, and critical insights to keep you informed and ahead of the curve. Tune in for a comprehensive and engaging analysis of the week's most important mortgage industry news, providing viewers with the knowledge and insights they need to make informed decisions in a rapidly changing market.

Tuesdays at 11am PT, two veteran LOs discuss all things mortgage with Industry Leaders: Mortgage Pros 411 with Audrey Boissonou and Kevin Casey.

The FAMPChat Summer Series, presented by the Central Florida FAMP Chapter, continues: register now for all the sessions.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday’s 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One.

Thursday, August 1st, will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET… Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests.

Whether you are an entry-level individual or a seasoned professional, MBA Education offers learning solutions from loan production basics to in-depth explorations of profitability, risk management, regulatory compliance, and best practices. Check out other online offerings, including webinars and select self-studies that are FREE to members. View all MBA Education complimentary offerings.

Class Valuation will be hosting a webinar Tuesday, July 30th, titled “Inspection-Based Appraisal Waivers: Everything You Need to Know.” Expert panelists will provide a clear and actionable guide to understanding the options available to lenders and how to properly work them into your operations. You will learn the benefits of inspection-based appraisal waivers for lenders, when a loan is eligible, the ins and outs of property data collection, and much more. Register here.

The NAR settlement marks a dramatic shift in how the US Housing Market transacts business and this will undoubtedly lead to challenges and opportunities affecting both Realtors and lenders. Join Mortgage Bankers Association of Eastern PA for a special webinar on July 31, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EDT)  to discuss the settlement and its effects, specifically on lenders. Learn and develop insight on potential changes affecting home purchase transactions and how this will affect Realtors and indirectly the relationships between agents and mortgage lenders. This session will not be heavy on legal concepts. It will break it down to things you need to understand for a practical business approach.

Fannie Mae has two new property insurance training modules to help ensure that lenders and servicers are well-versed in the unique needs for one- to four-unit properties and project developments (PUDs, condominiums, and co-ops). Review the one- to four-units module and View the PUDs, condominiums, and co-ops module. Available later this summer, new flood insurance training will provide a thorough understanding of the key flood insurance requirements for the same property types.

The Florida Association of Mortgage Professionals (FAMP) 2024 Convention & Tradeshow will take place from July 31 to August 3 at the Hilton Bonnet Creek in Orlando, Florida. With over 80 exhibitors, a golf tournament, a Big Top Bash Party and a lineup of industry partners and experts as speakers, this is an event you do not want to miss. Register today at ourfamp.org!

Join ICE for the August Mortgage Monitor webinar where you’ll gain critical insights into housing and mortgage market trends. ICE economic and product experts discuss borrower demand, housing affordability, interest rates, available equity and other factors that impact your lending strategies. The information is based on the most current analysis of ICE’s industry-leading U.S. mortgage, housing, and property data assets. It’s free for you to attend the webinar: Just sign up here. The webinar will be held Thursday, August 1, from 2 – 3 p.m. ET.

Have you heard about (read: registered for) some of our expanded media offerings? Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET, presented by BILT Rewards), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), regulation and compliance (Regulation Central third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital markets: GDP doesn’t show a slow economy, but…

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Strong domestic economic data and rate-cut optimism helped sentiment yesterday even as we learned that the housing market continues to lose momentum. The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter of this year, rising to 2.8 percent from 1.4 percent, illustrating that demand is holding up despite higher borrowing costs. An increase in consumer spending on durable goods and business spending on inventories both contributed strongly to last quarter’s expansion. It may be the fastest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate we see for the foreseeable future as the components suggest the economy may slow from here.

New home sales dipped 0.6 percent in June to a 617k annual rate, a weak reading when contrasted with expectations for a modest improvement. Despite increased use of builder incentives, high financing costs are still prohibitive.

The sharp decline in orders for new durable goods in June suggests a stagnation in the industrial sector, raising doubts about the sustainability of the activity increase implied by Q2 equipment investment in the GDP report. Durable goods orders fell by 6.6 percent month-over-month, missing the consensus of a 0.4 percent increase. The overall weakness was largely due to a significant drop in the volatile nondefense aircraft and parts orders. In other words, if United or Southwest doesn’t order some planes, it moves the needle.

Another important point is that business spending in June was quite strong, as evidenced by the 1.0 percent increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

The bond market was tasked with absorbing $44 billion 7-year notes in the final offering of this month’s coupon supply series. 7-year offerings have been well-received in 2024, with four auctions stopping through (February, March, April, and June) and two tailing (January and May).

The all-important PCE for June led off today’s calendar. Income and spending (+.3 percent) when they were expected to increase 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent month-over-month, respectively. The Core PCE Price Index (+.2 percent, +2.6 percent year over year) when it was expected to be unchanged month-over-month and increasing 2.4 percent year-over-year versus 0.1 percent and 2.6 percent in May. The week’s economic calendar rounds out with final July Michigan sentiment later this morning. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices little changed from Thursday’s close and the 10-year yielding 4.23 after closing yesterday at 4.26 percent; 4.43 is where the 2-year is. Our economy does not need to be rescued.

Once upon a time there was a King who was only 12 inches tall. He was a terrible King, but he made a great ruler.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current blog is titled, “Catastrophe and Climate Risk Is Only Increasing”. The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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