6.10.24 Great Reshuffling; Verisk's Kingsley Greenland on Catastrophe Modeling; Central Bank Timing

To stay competitive in this market, lenders need to find efficiencies and understand their operations in a much deeper way. Richey May’s consulting, cybersecurity, business intelligence, and automation services are designed by mortgage experts to help you continue to drive growth and increase profitability. Visit https://richeymay.com to learn more about how you can protect your business or set up a meeting with one of Richey May’s experts.

Transcript

“It's half the price of living at home!” Meet the people swapping dry land for a perpetual cruise. Meanwhile, back in the real world, residential loan originators are spending their days helping existing borrowers with their 3 percent 30-year fixed rate loans know when a cash-out refi makes financial sense. A lot was happening four years ago, and an unprecedented number of U.S. workers quit their jobs during the first full two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020 and 2021, a phenomenon dubbed the "Great Resignation." What followed was what’s come to be known as the Great Reshuffling: Some workers exited the labor market entirely; others quit and eventually rejoined the labor force and others changed employers with little or no break in employment. U.S. Census Bureau statistics show to what extent U.S. workers changed jobs across industries during and after the pandemic emergency was declared over in 2023. Today’s podcast is found here, and this week’s are sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, cybersecurity, technology, and other services to the mortgage industry. Hear an interview with Verisk’s Kingsley Greenland on catastrophe and climate risk modeling, something that every lender and servicer should be aware of as it impacts the pricing of loans and servicing across the nation.

Employment

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What are you doing for the next 25 years? ACC Mortgage has been doing Non-QM for the past 25 years. 2024 is shaping up to be our best year ever! How many mortgage companies can claim that? ACC is seeking five (5) well qualified Account Executives or a team that is looking for support, pricing, culture and stability. ACC makes Non-QM easy. Here is a recent article that talks about ACC’s vision: ACC's Senko talks non-QM outlook. Send a resume for a confidential interview.

“Loan officers! Discover the radius advantage. Are you navigating a market that's forgotten the value of loyalty? At radius financial group, we're rewriting the script with our MLO Partnership-Proposition (MPP). We understand the industry's pulse and the need for a genuine partnership—not just a platform to process loans. As lenders focus on consumers, we concentrate on you, the heartbeat of our business. You're not just a number here; you're the face of our brand, co-branded for success. We're committed to investing in you, providing a stable home where your talents are nurtured and your book of business flourishes. For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera (781-742-6500).”

Software, products, and services for lenders and brokers

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“LoanStream has Summer Specials to help you Close More! Includes Specials on Prime, Non-QM and Closed End Seconds now through June 30th, 2024. Includes 25 BPS Price Improvement on FHA/VA loans 620+ FICO (excludes DPA and CalHFA) and a 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM loans (excluding our 'Select' credit grade). We're not done... Get another 25 BPS Price Improvement on Closed-End Seconds. Restrictions apply - contact your LoanStream Account Executive to learn more. Specials are valid for loans locked 6/1/2024 through 6/30/2024. Offers subject to change at any time, terms and conditions apply. Visit www.LoanStreamWholesale.com for more information and our June specials page.”

The human brain is arguably the most complex structure in the known universe. Weighing an average of three pounds, it has enabled us to pursue space travel, write operas and build civilizations. It's a shame to relegate our brains to repetitive “stare and compare” tasks, activities that AI can do for us so we can focus on higher-level projects. On Dark Matter Technologies’ ‘The Spotlight’ podcast, we hear from Brian Swanson, director of AI and machine learning and the product lead for AIVA® Docs, who explains how AI can be put to work to free the human brain from the mundane and how (thanks to AI) the Empower LOS is uniquely positioned to transform the mortgage ecosystem. Take a few minutes and listen to the episode today!

“Are you a mortgage company who does second mortgages looking to amplify your reach and drive more second mortgage applications? Or would you like to originate seconds and need lead flow? With rates at today’s levels consumers need seconds more than ever, we can help deliver them. We have specialized Mortgage Expertise: We only work in the mortgage industry, with over 30 years’ experience in mortgage we understand your market and your clients. Data-driven campaigns: Our strategies are backed by proprietary data models ensuring you reach the right audience at the right time. Specialized 2nd mortgage Data models: We identify both qualification and willingness of consumer to do a Second Mortgage. Let us help you unlock the potential of your second mortgage offerings. Want more info? Reach out today!”

Maximize your return on every loan with Maxwell Capital. Now more than ever, lenders need solutions that allow scale while reducing operational costs and increasing revenue per loan. With Maxwell Capital, lenders can access competitive secondary market pricing on a wide array of products, including agency, government, jumbo and non-QM across wholesale, delegated and non-delegated delivery options. Our seasoned sales team is here to help you, including Patrick Benoist (Plains and Southeast), Molly Delaney (Midwest and Northeast), Scott Greenway (Mid-Atlantic), Matt Mead (Texas and lower Plains) and Kymberly Wright (West and Southwest), along with our National Account Managers Kayla Morrison and Stacy Hall. Schedule a call with the Maxwell team today and start doing more for your bottom line.

“In today's competitive purchase market, the lenders who stand out provide excellent, personalized, and consistent communication. This approach is key to attracting new business, keeping your current borrowers happy and retaining clients for life. In our new blog, we’re sharing how the Surefire℠ CRM and Mortgage Marketing Engine can help you streamline and improve your borrower outreach even further, so you’re prepared to thrive in today’s competitive purchase market. And by leveraging both Surefire and Encompass®, you’re able to deliver targeted content to the right contacts at the right moment. Read the full blog to gain all the insights.”

“A new challenge has taken social media by storm. 100 Days of Rejection encourages people to put themselves in vulnerable situations by asking for favors. Ask a stranger for $100 and see what they say. The idea is to build up your tolerance for rejection to face the world in a new light. At Lender Toolkit, we are helping lenders reduce their mortgage loan rejections by 50 percent with AI Underwriter™. We’d encourage you to stay intolerant of rejected loans and challenge you to contact us to learn more here.”

People live on their phones, so it's no shock 79 percent of consumers prefer to receive service-based messages via text. However, many lenders struggle with creating compliant, high-quality, and well-formatted SMS content. Not only does SMS marketing have to comply with ever-shifting FTC requirements, but for maximum deliverability it should also follow rigid syntax and formatting best practices. But who has time to research all these dirty details? Well, the telecom experts at Bonzo, that's who. Download Bonzo's SMS Mortgage Marketing Best Practices Cheat Sheet to get all the inside info you need to improve your SMS deliverability. Happy texting!

Lender & investor changes don’t stop, from soup to nuts

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I try to group announcing changes to underwriting and processing guidelines based on loan program. But sometimes there’s a jumble. Like today…

Wanna compete with someone up the street who has a 0 percent down program? This article may help.

Newrez Correspondent announced a funding fee increase from $295 to $305 on all conforming loans, effective starting June 3.

Citi Correspondent Lending Bulletin 2024-05 contents include credit policy update on non-English document translation. HomeRun pricing options and Monthly List updates, Depreciating Markets notices, and Principal Curtailments clarification.

Citi Correspondent Lending will implement a Pricing Non-Agency CRA Premium Change effective with Best Efforts Non-Agency (includes the HomeRun program) locks completed on / after Monday, June 3, 2024.

Effective with announcement 20240519-CL, AmeriHome has expanded the eligible Visa and EAD types to include G Series Visas and additional Employment Authorization Document (EAD) codes.

AmeriHome Mortgage 202405025-CL General Announcement – May 2024 summarizes previously published changes made during the month and provides news and additional changes made with the announcement.

The Lender’s NONI58+ for 5-8 Units has arrived. Highlights on Standard NONI58 for 5-8 Unit include loan amounts up to $2MM, 700 minimum FICO, LTV’s up to max 75 percent, and Cash in hand up to $1MM.

Las Vegas’ Panorama Mortgage Group, LLC (PMG), operating under the DBA’s Alterra Home Loans, Vision Mortgage Group, LEGACY Home Loans, and Lone Peak Lending, announces the launch of an “innovative and proprietary loan program that breaks down the barriers for first-generation, first-time homebuyers with its unique 1 percent down payment and 2 percent grant down payment assistance, known as the 1st Generation Homebuyer (1st Gen) loan program. The program uniquely combines a more expansive definition of eligible borrowers. 1st Gen focuses on borrowers who are the first generation in their family to buy a home. Another important feature of the program is the 2 percent grant does not have to be repaid by the borrower. Additionally, there are no property location or census tract constraints, which makes the program eligible within PMG’s nationwide footprint.”

Plaza Home Mortgage® recently made updates to its Non-QM Low Loan Amount LLPA and Jumbo Champion Depreciating Markets List that are effective immediately for new locks.

Effective Monday, July 1, 2024, Delegated Sellers will incur a monthly $140.00 fee to obtain AmeriHome’s Rate Sheet when utilizing certain Product and Pricing Engines (PPEs). See AmeriHome Secondary Announcement 20240601-CL for details.

Capital Markets: there’s no reason for the Fed to do anything

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What happens to all those FHA & VA loans you do? Ginnie Mae’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding grew to $2.59 trillion in May, including $36.9 billion of total MBS issuance, leading to $14.3 billion of net growth. May’s new MBS issuance supports the financing of more than 116,000 households, including more than 58,000 first-time homebuyers. Approximately 74 percent of the May MBS issuance reflects new mortgages that support home purchases because refinance activity remained low due to higher interest rates. 

The May issuance includes $36.1 billion of Ginnie Mae II MBS and $804 million of Ginnie Mae I MBS, including $655 million in loans for multifamily housing. For the 2024 calendar year to date, Ginnie Mae has supported the pooling and securitization of more than 249,000 first-time home buyer loans. For more information on monthly MBS issuance, Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB), real estate mortgage investment conduit (REMIC) monthly issuance, and global market analysis, visit Ginnie Mae’s Disclosure.

Looking at the economy, bond prices, and therefore interest rates… Good news for the U.S. economy and everyday Americans is unfortunately bad news for the Fed and rate cuts. A solid U.S. jobs report for May, in which 272k jobs were added, quelled fears about an economic slowdown but stoked a return of the higher for longer mantra as the Fed tries to cool parts of the economy to battle inflation. Per usual, the back months (of March and April) were revised downward, following the recent pattern we have seen out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders and economists once again pushed back their expected timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. 

In addition to U.S. payrolls surging last month versus 182k growth expectations, wages accelerated (average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent from April and 4.1 percent from a year ago) as the labor market remained robust in the face of two-decade high interest rates. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4 percent from 3.9 percent, rising to that level for the first time in over two years. Bonds got hammered as that solid jobs report poured water on rate cut hopes, reversing the tightening over the past two weeks. That selloff in Treasuries drove yields the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 15 basis points on Friday, but the benchmark still ended the week eight basis points down from where it started.

It’s not just traders and economists that are grappling with rate cut timing, but central banks as well. More than two years into the steepest interest-rate tightening cycle in four decades, and the long holding cycle since, central banks around the world are grappling with how fast to unwind policy. The Bank of Canada and the ECB both slashed benchmark rates last week, and U.S. Federal Reserve officials will meet this week when they are widely expected to hold interest rates steady as the U.S. economy hums along and the labor market keeps firing. 

Other economic data points to an economy operating in lower gear, but still growing. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services indices showed that prices paid are still expanding, however at a slower pace in May than in April. The cost of services will continue to be the main factor as to how quickly overall inflation can move back towards the Fed’s two percent goal. While there are some indications that consumers are starting to rein in spending, economic activity remains steady. Market expectations have shifted to just one rate cut by the FOMC, sometime towards the end of the year. The latest monetary policy decision from the FOMC is due out on Wednesday with the Bank of Japan on Friday. 

Now that we’ve gotten through Friday’s employment data, investors will be eyeballing May consumer prices this Wednesday, with analyst consensus calling for the annualized headline to remain static at 3.4 percent, while the annualized core-reading is expected to cool by a 0.1 percent to 3.5 percent. The other highlight of the week will be the mini-Refunding consisting of $119 billion in 3-year notes and reopened 10-year notes and 30-year bonds auctioned by the Treasury over today, tomorrow, and Thursday. There is also producer prices on Thursday, and import prices and Michigan sentiment on Friday. Regarding MBS, Class A and B 48-hour notifications are on Tuesday and Friday, respectively, which is also Class C net out.

The week is off to a quiet start, however, with today’s only data point coming later this morning in the form of the Employment Trends Index for May. Treasury will complete a couple of auctions, headlined by $58 billion 3-year notes. We start the week with Agency MBS prices a shade worse than Friday afternoon, the 10-year yielding 4.45 after closing last week at 4.43 percent, and the 2-year at 4.89.

Thank you to Jeff C. for this point to ponder:

Hard times make strong men.

Strong men create good times.

Good times create weak men.

And weak men create hard times.

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current blog is titled, “Catastrophe and Climate Risk Is Only Increasing”. The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes visit LenderNews. This newsletter is for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For up-to-date mortgage news visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.robchrisman.com. Copyright 2024 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Occasional paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman.)