Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News

4.11.24 Bye Bye Rate Cut Odds; PHH Mortgage's Chris Sabbe on Subservicing; Inflation Reaction

April 11, 2024
Chrisman Commentary - Daily Mortgage News
4.11.24 Bye Bye Rate Cut Odds; PHH Mortgage's Chris Sabbe on Subservicing; Inflation Reaction
Show Notes Transcript

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, PHH Mortgage. For over 35 years, PHH Mortgage has provided industry-leading mortgage services. They are one of the largest servicers of residential mortgages in the United States and offer a variety of solutions for the entire mortgage lifecycle. If you are looking for a Correspondent Lending partner or an experienced, award-winning Subservicer who can manage your forward and reverse, residential and commercial, and performing and non-performing loans look no further than PHH. Learn more at business.phhmortgage.com.

The next time you complain about your job, just be thankful you’re not working at Cinnabon. (Excuse the language.) Did you know that tomorrow is “Take your underwriter to work day”? Okay, I just made that up. If life could be so simple and everything would go smoothly. Instead, we were once again provided with fodder (in the form of March consumer price levels) that inflation is still a problem and that rates will probably be at these levels into the summer. And the Fed will stand pat. (STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “Relying on the Fed: How Did This Happen?”) But rates are only part of the problem facing lenders and their vendor partners. Even if mortgage rates were to fall, the Dallas Fed tells us that affordability may not improve! The research and chart (that goes back 50 years) show that when rates go up, the price of a home relative to income falls. Conversely when rates fall, home prices rise. Is it Happy Hour? (Found here after 8:30AM ET, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by PHH Mortgage. From subservicing to correspondent lending, MSR/co-issue transactions, portfolio retention, reverse mortgages, and commercial servicing, PHH has solutions for the entire mortgage lifecycle. Hear an interview with PHH Mortgage’s Chris Sabbe on “Subservicing 2.0,” beyond the status quo.)


Employment and promotions

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Loan officers! Discover the radius advantage. Are you navigating a market that's forgotten the value of loyalty? At radius financial group, we're rewriting the script with our MLO Partnership-Proposition (MPP). We understand the industry's pulse and the need for a genuine partnership—not just a platform to process loans. As lenders focus on consumers, we concentrate on you, the heartbeat of our business. You're not just a number here; you're the face of our brand, co-branded for success. We're committed to investing in you, providing a stable home where your talents are nurtured and your book of business flourishes. For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera (781-742-6500).


Optimal Blue announced that it has elevated 35-year vet Rick Allen to chief operating officer (COO) where he will “provide greater operational oversight across all areas of the company, including opportunities to enhance efficiencies and streamline execution.” Congratulations!


Lender and broker products, software, and services

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Origination data through March month-end is here! Grab your copy of the Originations Market Monitor today! Each month, Optimal Blue publishes this free report providing a comprehensive and timely look into origination data for the U.S. and the top 20 metropolitan statistical areas by share of total volume. The latest report, which looks at data through March month-end, highlights an increase in average loan amounts, an uptick in home purchase prices, and the highest average borrower credit score since tracking began in 2018. March data also shows a notable increase in rate lock volume. All this information and much more is included in this month’s report. Access the latest Originations Market Monitor and subscribe to receive the report each month.


We know that not all property data is equal – and it certainly shouldn’t be viewed as a commodity. With data playing such a critical role in virtually every aspect of a mortgage – underwriting decisions, risk management, property, and asset valuation – it makes sense that you would get your data from a trusted provider. That’s why we wanted to highlight First American Data & Analytics and their industry-leading repository of recorded property document images. It’s true: more than 8 billion and growing! As a nationwide single-source solution, they are proud to provide property document images that are current, complete, and accessible. Feel confident in your ability to know where and how to locate the data, documents, and reports you need. Sound good? Learn more and get a sample of their data.


Originations are continuing to see spikes in home equity loans and lines of credit. Your business needs the processes and technology in place to keep up, while also helping to reduce costs, risk and turn times. That’s why ICE offers ValidateSM, an intuitive mobile app built specifically to support and expedite property valuations on home equity originations. Validate combines computer vision technology, a condition-adjusted AVM and up-to-date property data with borrower-supplied photographs to automatically determine a property’s value and available equity. By combining actual property photos with computer vision, the AVM more accurately reflects the property’s condition to determine its value, while helping save you time and money. And since Validate increases valuation accuracy, you can focus on the loans with a higher probability to close to help increase pull though. Click here to learn more about Validate.


Industry-leading VOIE coverage and conversion! Join the industry's top lenders already in using Truv to verify borrower income and employment information and save 60-80 percent on each verification. Truv covers of 95 percent of the U.S. workforce, enabling you to replace manual, error-prone methods of verifying borrower data and speed up close times. Contact our team for a demo today to start saving. Get started!


Upfront fee collection may not be glamorous, but it doesn't have to be tedious with an awful user experience either. Collect upfront fees with Fee Chaser by LenderLogix. Send the request right from your LOS, borrower pays the fee on their device, everyone gets a receipt, and you might be in the green when it comes to originating a loan.


October Research, LLC invites partners across the real estate transaction to participate in The Title Report’s Title Insurance at Work initiative, which aims to educate both the public and decision makers about the role title insurance plays. Share your stories about how title protection directly affects the lives of consumers and affects all parts of the real estate transaction. All submissions are housed in the Title Insurance at Work Resource Center, accessible to all and available to share on social media platforms to help get the word out about the industry.

 

Webinars & training & events, oh my!

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Interested in learning how retain/release MSR decisions can be included in your best execution strategy? Join MCT for a webinar on April 24th at 11:00 AM PT titled Complete Best Execution – Now Including Fully Integrated Retain/Release MSR Decisioning. In this webinar, MCT will review the current state of the MSR market and discuss more comprehensive retain vs. release strategies, in addition to our recently introduced fully integrated Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution. MCT’s Paul Yarbrough will then provide insights from a trader’s perspective regarding MSR best execution strategies at time of loan sale. He will also highlight MCT’s Rapid Commit technology and assignment of trade processes. This session will include a live demo of the EBX (MCTlive! and MSRlive!) integration, showcasing how EBX can effectively optimize your flow MSR trading process and decisions. Register for the webinar to join the session.

 

(A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here, and click on “Conference List” for in-person events in the future.)

 

Join the MBA of NJ, in partnership with HUD  for the 2024 HUD Housing Counseling Session, tomorrow from 2–4PM at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY., Keys to Homeownership: Building Strategic Partnerships. Session II will cover policies for underwriting the property, closing, and endorsement requirements. April 11th, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET. 

 

Tomorrow the 12th is the next episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”. This Friday’s is co-hosted by Teresa Rose, founder, CEO, and President of Western Ohio Mortgage Corp.

 

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT join Robbie Chrisman and Justin Demola for a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements.

 

The Great River Conference, hosted by AR, MS, MO, and TN, is April 16-18 in Memphis at the Peabody, home of the most photographed ducks in the world.

 

FHA Underwriting Training in Greensboro, April 16, 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM (Eastern). This free, in-person training will provide an overview of FHA underwriting procedures as outlined in the FHA Single Family Housing Policy Handbook (Handbook 4000.1) and addresses several industry-related frequently asked questions (FAQs). This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of topics including credit, income, and asset (CIA) documentation; manual underwriting; automated underwriting systems (AUS); closing; and more.

 

FHA Appraiser & Appraisal Training in Greensboro, April 17th, 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM (Eastern). This free, in-person training will provide an overview of FHA appraisal protocol and updates to FHA appraisal policy as outlined in the FHA Single Family Housing Policy Handbook (Handbook 4000.1). This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of appraisal-related topics including property acceptability criteria; minimum property requirements; property defects; appraiser responsibilities and requirements; and more.

 

When are Things Going to Get Better Already!?! Spokane Association for Mortgage Professionals invites you to join us as we have a conversation with RE Source on Wednesday, April 17th from 4:30pm-6:30pm at the Spokane Club 1002 W Riverside Ave, Spokane, WA. Topics will include Market Insights, Content Creation, Social Media and Winning in 24'. Click here to register. (Be sure to check out the RE Source latest videos: https://theresource.tv/.)


Thursday April 18th Rich Swerbinsky returns to the airwaves at 3PM ET, interviewing the CFPB’s Mark McArdle on what the big misconceptions about the CFPB are, and where its focus is currently.

 

FHA Appraisal Policies for Manufactured Homes in Greensboro, April 18th, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM (Eastern). This free, in-person training will provide an overview of FHA appraisal/appraiser requirements for manufactured homes as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will cover several topics including property acceptability criteria, minimum property standards/minimum property requirements (MPR/MPS), defective conditions, policy updates, inspections, well and septic requirements, underwriting the appraisal, and program types such as a new construction.

 

Join Angel Oak on Thursday, April 18th for a Non-QM Webinar on Short Term Rentals & DSCLR Loans. Discussion will include AirDNA, short term rentals and DSCR Loan program details. Plus, the top questions heard from their brokers.

 

IMLA is hosting a Builder Panel at its April Luncheon, Thursday, April 18 · 11:30am - 1pm MDT   at the Riverside Hotel Aspen Room. Treasure Valley Builders Bobbie Jordan, Preside of Jordan Homes, Bud Compher, Jr., CEO of Neighborworks Boise, Cody Weight, President of Solitude Homes and Jenna England, President of Berkeley will share their perspectives on building trends, affordable housing, and how they are adapting to the everchanging market.

 

AmeriCatalyst explores the operational impact of climate change and its profound industry-wide implications for the US housing and finance market. The event brings together senior representatives and CEOs from government entities including the White House, The Fed, Treasury and the FDIC, government housing entities, insurance companies, institutional investors, investment banks, banks, mortgage originators and servicers, homebuilders, Single Family Rental Operators and REITs, leading data providers, economists, academic institutions, climate tech providers, and world renowned climatologists. AmeriCatalyst's GOING TO EXTREMES: The Climate, Housing and Finance Summit is being held at the Gaylord National Harbor (in the Washington DC area) on April 18 and 19. Contact Toni Moss (512-461-6340) with questions.

 

Capital Markets: if you like mortgage rates in the 7’s, good

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The door has slammed on a June Fed rate cut as it seems inflation is sticking around. The Consumer Price Index in March (0.4 percent month-over-month) topped forecasts for a third straight month thanks to shelter (rising rent) and energy (transportation costs) weighing on the reading. From a year earlier, CPI picked up to a 3.5 percent increase from 3.2 percent in February, rising by the most since September. Excluding food and energy, the index increased 0.4 percent from February and showed no year-over-year decline in pace from the prior month.

 

Experts have been waiting for a deceleration based on leading indicators, but progress has more or less stalled over the past nine months. Paired with recent reports showing a continued robust labor market and strong economic activity, investors no longer see much chance that the Fed will start easing anytime soon. Investors had expected the Fed to cut interest rates sharply up to six times at the start of this year, but months of stubborn inflation and strong economic growth make cuts only in September and December now the most likely scenario. Treasury yields hit new 2024 highs yesterday as investors pared back expectations for rate reductions, with the policy-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury soaring by as much as 24 basis points.

 

The other big release on the day was the minutes from the March 19/20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which some would consider old news. Fed minutes showed consensus amongst participants about rate cuts “at some point this year.” However, at the time of the meeting, there was “increased confidence” that inflation was moving towards the Fed’s 2 percent target. The more interesting portion of the minutes was around the Fed’s balance sheet. No decisions about adjusting the pace of balance sheet runoff were made at the meeting, but there was agreement in reducing the monthly runoff by half from its current pace in Treasuries, as MBS runoff is expected to remain well below the monthly cap of $35 billion for the foreseeable future. Any adjustments to the Fed balance sheet runoff are at least a few meetings away (read: June/July), slightly later than previously expected.

 

Today’s economic calendar is already under way with the latest monetary policy decision from the ECB, which held rates steady while readying markets for a 25 basis points cut in June. The U.S. calendar began with March prices (+.2 percent) and weekly jobless claims (211k). PPI was expected to increase 0.4 percent month-over-month and 2.3 percent year-over-year versus 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent previously. Later today brings several Treasury auctions that will be headlined by 5-year TIPS and reopened 20-year & 30-year bonds, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from several Fed speakers. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices about unchanged from the sell-off Wednesday’s and the 10-year yielding 4.55 after closing yesterday at 4.56 percent; not much could change the course set by yesterday’s CPI.

 

 

(Warning: Rated PG for language. No complaints please.)

Myron Greenberg, a wealthy L.A. businessman received a letter of Audit from the IRS. It really upset him, and he called his accountant, Saul Meyers.

Myron (pleading): "Saul, what are they doing to me? Why are they doing this to me?"

Saul (calming): "Myron, don't worry about it. I've got all the receipts, the account is up to date, it's no problem. But let me give you a bit of advice.

“When you go to the audit, make a bad impression. Wear the crummiest, dirtiest clothes you've got. Have holes in your shoes, ripped pants and look shabby. I mean really look terrible, because if they have a little sympathy, they'll go easy on you."

Then Myron called his Lawyer, Charlie Steinberg.

His lawyer said: "Myron, it's no problem, I'm sure they got the receipts, I’m sure everything is up to date, you've got a great accountant, don't worry about it. Let me give you a tip. When you go to the audit, it's very important that you make a good impression. Wear your best suit, and your shirt with a silk tie and cuff links and shine your shoes, look like somebody. Because if you look like a somebody, they respect you and will go easy on you."

And now he's torn. And that night he bumped into his Rabbi at the deli. And he told the Rabbi the story.

Rabbi: "Myron, it reminds me of sometimes when I perform a wedding. The bride's father will tell his daughter that on her wedding night to wear a nightgown with a high collar and long sleeves and a full-length robe...cover up, you know, be a little demure. And the mother says, 'Don't be silly. Wear a low cut "negligee" with the Cleavage sticking out… look a little sexy'……….and, Myron, I will say to you just like I say to the bride on her wedding night, it makes no difference what you wear, you're gonna' get screwed."


 

Visit www.robchrisman.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or to subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. If you’re interested, visit my periodic blog at the STRATMOR Group web site. The current blog is titled, “Relying on the Fed: How Did This Happen?” The Commentary’s podcast is live and at any place you obtain your podcasts (like Apple or Spotify).

 

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